VMart managed to tear his ACL in off-season workouts…he’s likely out for the year.
Just sat in on the DD conf call (thanks billfer), DD didn’t say anything too unexpected. They just found out over the last few days when VMart called Kevin Rand to tell him about a knee injury. There is a chance that he might be back later in the season. At this point in time, DD is planning on just a short-term replacement, but no candidates as of yet.
Prince Fielder anyone?
More to come.
After Verlander’s second start of the year I commented that JV seemed to be throwing his change-up more on crucial counts. It was not rooted in any scout-like acuity, but just a casual observation from a guy who watches too much Tigers baseball much like you do. My recollection is that JV primarily has relied on his fastball and curveball, and on nights when his curveball isn’t working, that leaves him susceptible.
Well, his change-up has been working all year, and on Saturday he threw his slider with great frequency. This could be very, very bad news for AL hitters. It also represents further maturation by JV (dare I say “the art of pitching?”) an important point not lost on Jack Morris.
According to Fangraphs, JV has been throwing his change-up 19.6% of the time this year, which is the highest percentage since Pitch f/X started tracking theses things in 2007 , and likely the highest of his career. He’s always used it to setup the fastball, but using it to get outs early, or as a bona fide strikeout pitch, will help him to become an even stronger pitcher. Another benefit is that the change-up early in the game allows him to throw his less taxing fastball (four seamer at 92-94) in the opening innings but make them look faster because of the change of speed. We are all well aware of JV’s perpetual early inning troubles and “over-pitching” is as much of a culprit as there is (though I still like blaming the national anthem singer). If he can use his change-up earlier in the game, or at least pitch to contact with what is still a plus fastball, then he can stay in games longer.
| Type | |||||
| Season | FA% | CU% | CH% | SL% | FT% |
| 2007 | 61.80% | 16.10% | 19.00% | 1.90% | 1.10% |
| 2008 | 60.80% | 14.10% | 15.30% | 6.20% | 2.90% |
| 2009 | 67.20% | 19.40% | 10.00% | 2.80% | 0.20% |
| 2010 | 52.00% | 19.90% | 14.30% | 6.80% | 7.00% |
| 2011 | 46.30% | 16.70% | 19.60% | 7.70% | 9.60% |
| Total | 59.40% | 17.60% | 14.20% | 5.00% | 3.50% |
|
Velocity |
|||||
| Season | FA-Vel | CU-Vel | CH-Vel | SL-Vel | FT-Vel |
| 2007 | 94.1 | 79.4 | 82.3 | 83.1 | 83.7 |
| 2008 | 93.7 | 80.3 | 83.6 | 82.4 | 89.1 |
| 2009 | 95.6 | 80.1 | 84.2 | 86.6 | 89.2 |
| 2010 | 95.5 | 79.6 | 85.7 | 87.2 | 93.6 |
| 2011 | 95.1 | 78.5 | 86.3 | 86.2 | 94.5 |
| Total | 94.9 | 79.8 | 84.3 | 85.3 | 92.4 |
(Fangraphs link here. FA = four-seamer, FT = two-seamer.)
Now, if you weren’t already convinced that JV has 5 more no-no’s in him, the really exciting stuff is that he’s throwing his slider more and more (including 4 out of 6 pitches against Rajai Davis for the last AB on Saturday, remember that was the pitch for the last K), which means that he could develop a legitimate 5 pitch repertoire (four seamer, two seamer, curve, change, slider). Unfortunately, we don’t have great Pitch f/x data for Saturday’s game. But from what we can see, he threw a ton of sliders, and is throwing more sliders this year (7.7%) than ever (compared to 5% for his career).
For the first time since making the bigs, JV is throwing his fastball less than 50% of the time. (I actually don’t have data on this for 2005 & 2006, but I’m willing to be Coleman’s clown suit that this is the case.) He’s throwing his slider, two-seamer and change-up more than ever. JV has always had dominant stuff, arguably the best in the AL. But he’s been prone to high pitch counts and chasing the strikeout, which have kept him from being the best in the AL. Let’s see if Saturday’s effort is an indication that JV is ready to move from best in Detroit to best in the AL.
(picture from www.freep.com)
I’m not sure that this is news to anyone, but don’t expect Zumaya to pitch anytime soon, or this season, or perhaps never again.
As unsurprising as this news is, it’s still difficult to swallow because I don’t think any of us will forget the magic he brought in 2006 nor what he meant to that WS run. RIP, Joel Zumaya right arm.
Admittedly, the only reason I saw this was because I was browsing other Tigers blogs out there. But apparently, some guy named Jeff Passan over at Yahoo! sports has taken issue with the way the Tigers (affectionately referred to as the “Pussy Cats”) have handled the Cabrera issue. You really should check it out. Passan goes so far as to insinuate that Cabrera could “run a dog fighting ring or kill someone” before getting a reaction out of the organization.
Passan comes off as very Jim Rome’ish, (my guess is he’s been punked by guys like Jim Everett in the past), but he’s probably just writing to get a reaction.
As I wrote earlier, I wish the Tigers would have come forward sooner, but I don’t see it as their responsibility to punish Cabrera. Get him help, yes. But fine him or bench him? The likes of Mickey Mantle & Jim Bouton would have never seen the grass if Passan had his way.
What are your thoughts?
(image courtesy of DetroitNews.com)
I’m sure that most of you have read the Freep and News by now, they are both loaded with Cabrera stories.
The central theme is that Cabrera is unlikely to report to camp tomorrow with the rest of the fielders, as the commissioner’s office and the union are involved in “the process.” Looks like his next steps (rehab? admonition by the team? personal time?) are still up in the air.
I don’t think that alcoholism is novel to ballplayers, but Cabrera seems to have a depression problem. I also think that DD is full of it when he says he was “shocked” to learn of the incident. I’m not blaming DD here, but I’m confident the front office knows their players better than that. I think there was a better option for his reaction to the media. Continuing, the Tigers need to support this guy. In my limited, unprofessional opinion, drinking scotchy scotch scotch in front of the cops was a blatant call for help. How did these personal issues get past DD, Avila, Cabrera’s agent, etc.? Cabrera wanted this to blow up.
Predictably, Mitch Albom, was judgmental and belittling in today’s column. (Question, Albom used to be awesome, but now he’s annoyingly holier than thou, no? He and Skip Bayless look more and more alike every day; Dorian Gray anyone?)
The News actually took a pretty dim, and far-fetched view of things, with Wojnowski reporting that Cabrera’s “career may be on the line” and the Tigers are pondering “Miguel Cabrera’s future.” Both of these vagaries can be loosely interpreted as either good analysis or ridiculous shock content, I fall in line with the latter. His career is not on the line, and we need to rally around this guy.
Honestly, I don’t think this affects the season at all. Cabrera needs to see about 3 pitches to be MVP caliber ready, so if anyone can show up to spring training late, it’s this guy. He has the resources around him (we hope) to get the treatment/help he needs. What befuddles me is that the organization has seemingly distanced themselves from him, rather than rallying around him. There is still time to do so, but it needs to happen, soon. At least Leyland is moving on from it, saying yesterday that it “won’t affect the team.” In fact, he was pretty emphatic about it, reports Ken Rosenthal. I’m sure Leyland has seen a lot in his day, and I’m inclined to agree with him.
(I’m also a little concerned about the “3-4 knee spikes” into Cabrera’s thigh. You’d need a lot of force to take the big man down.)
Despite this guy’s negativity, I really like the deal for a number of reasons. (You really should check out that link if you want to see a good example of how to poorly build an argument).
1) Other than his injury year of 2008, he’s had a WAR of 3.9 or higher (see Fangraphs here) in each of the past six years, and an OPS+ of at least 122 (see B-R here).
2) His middle name is “Jesus” and as we all know, you don’t ___ with the Jesus.
3) He’s a catcher. And we really, really need a more than a back-up catcher. I understand that he’s arguably a liability defensively, but what other options did DD have? I feel that all too often people ignore the available market when talking free agents. Alex Avila has an opportunity to be a serviceable catcher for a long time, and VMart definitely bridges that gap.
4) He’s a switch-hitter. How great is that? Talk about ultimate protection for Cabrera.
5) He’s durable. In the past 7 seasons, he’s had 538+ PAs in 6 of them, and 600+ in 4 of those 6. Not too shabby for a guy who squats for a living.
By all accounts he’s a great clubhouse guy, and it looks like he really wanted to be in Detroit. Several outlets are reporting that Martinez turned down 3/$48 from the White Sox, and a similar offer from the Orioles. Moreover, I agree with Lynn Henning that DD is not yet done.
Keith Law was pretty neutral on the deal (which means that he really likes it), though he did express concern over the spend to win strategy: “My main concern with the deal is neither its length nor its size, but what it says about the Tigers’ current strategy…this time around, the Tigers’ system is in much worse shape.” (read the whole article on insider here)
Can’t wait to see what pops up next. Hot stove is heating up.
3 years at $16.5M is a hefty price tag for a setup guy who has really only had three good years over his 8 year career. Benoit had a sick .68 WHIP last year with 75 Ks in 60.1 IPs. Problem is, that he’s never had a WHIP lower than 1.17 in any of his other 8 full seasons (3 of them primarily as a starter), and he has a career 4.47 ERA, and 1.35 WHIP.
I’m not fond of 3 year deals for middle relievers, and I’m not fond of overpaying for a career year. Though I will say props to DD for addressing a huge need, and doing so quickly. I think we’ll get one more in the pen before camp next spring.
I also thought this was interesting – at least some are reporting that Phil Coke will be in the starting rotation next year.
>>>>>
Dunn – It was reported around noon central that talks were heating up with Dunn, but Jon Heyman recently sent this out via Twitter: “hearing dunn isn’t close yet with any 1 team, tho tigers are showing keen interest.”)
Miguel Cabrera won his third Silver Slugger award today, and joined Albert Pujols in the distinction of winning it at three positions (remember he predominantly played OF for the Marlins when he first came up).
But on to the more pressing issues at hand:
The Tigers are being routinely mentioned as the team most who will make the strongest bid for Victor Martinez (for four years, surmises Peter Gammon), but does Manny Ramirez make sense in Detroit? Apparently Battlestar has the inside scoop on Martinez, telling Morosi that the Tigers’ Venezuelan faction could help.
I agree that Carl Crawford is the crown jewel of the hitters, but the rumors put him at $100MM over 5 years, and I don’t think that we can do that, and fill our C need.
Note that Casey Fien signed with the Astros today. He had a career 8.36 ERA and 1.643 WHIP with the Tigers.
With SS and 3B done, OF and Catcher remain the biggest needs for the boys. I think it is safe to say that AJax will be starting in center, and the corner positions are up for grabs.
In May and June of last year, Boesch in Left and Maggs in Right helped to form a respectable outfield, and a formidable lineup. But Boesch’s collapse and Maggs’ constant injuries cast doubt on a Boesch, Jackson, Maggs trio for 2011.
Ordonez had his $15M option turned down by the Tigers, but they are still expected to negotiate with him in the coming weeks. Keep in mind that he will be 37 next year (older than any of the full time OFers listed below), and his games played have been on a steady decline since 2007, bottoming out at 84 last year. Boras is already playing his games.
John Lowe wrote on Sunday that the three big bats that the Tigers will chase will be Adam Dunn, Jayson Werth, and Carl Crawford. Crawford in the outfield with Jackson would be lethal, but Crawford is expected to receive big offers from a number of teams. Werth and Dunn will not come cheaply either, though at least one MLB.com writer is predicting Dunn to the Tigers.
I’ve seen more than one baseball writer hint that the Tigers might make a play for Jeter, though this was written before the Peralta signing. Would Jeter play LF?
Damon is a free agent, but I can not imagine a repeat of him at DH, at least not as a first option. I was shocked to read that Damon was coming off of a “pretty solid season” on ESPN insider yesterday. Damon hit 8 HR with 51 RBA and a .756 OPS last year.
Another reason why I pass in Damon, is that once you get past the big boys who are DH/OF combos, there are plenty of good options left at DH. Thome, Matsui, Vlad, Sweeney. Heck, could Brad Hawpe resurrect his career? He’s only 31…
Hopefully Ilitch will have some money left after his next purchase.
In the feel good story of the day – the Tigers resigned Max St. Pierre to a minor league contract. Terms were undisclosed.
What do you think?
Here’s what I see as set in stone, and what’s on the books for 2011:
1) JV – $12.75M
2) Scherzer – $~1.5M, arb eligible
3) Porcello – $1.536M, club option
4/5) Galarraga – under club control, but note that he’s Super-2 eligible thanks to a rather generously low hurdle this year (2 yrs, 122 days).
Down on the farm the future looks bright, but it might be a few years. Jacob Turner, Andy Oliver, and Casey Crosby are all expected to be solid rotation guys, but Turner and Crosby are likely two years away. Remember that Crosby was shut down last July with recurring elbow problems after a few bad starts on a rehab stint in the GCL (he started the year on the DL as well coming off of Tommy John). 2011 will be an important year for Crosby.
Turner split the year between Western Michigan and Lakeland last year, and was dominant in both. Overall he posted a 3.28 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and struck out 102 in 115 IPs. The kid is only 19, and his age is probably the only reason why we wouldn’t see him in 2011.
Oliver had 5 not so flattering starts last year for the big league club, though he did pitch two quality starts before being sent back down, posting a 3.00 ERA. Oliver spent the rest of the year in Toledo, where he struck out 49 in 53 IPs, and posted a 3.23 ERA. Oliver turns 23 next month and I see no reason why he wouldn’t have a legitimate shot at the rotation in spring training.
This year’s free agent class includes Bonderman, Carl Pavano, Chris Young, Aaron Harang, Hiroki Kuroda, Javier Vazquez, and Justin Duchscherer. I really like Kuroda, but I feel that the Tigers’ free agent dollars would be better spent elsewhere. Anyone think they’ll make Bonderman an offer?
James Shields and Zach Grienke are also rumored to be available. I don’t think we have the chips for Grienke, and I’m not sure that I’d want James Shields.
(shout out to Vince in MN)
Yorvit Torrealba: 32/.271/.343/.378
Victor Martinez: 31/.302/.351/.493
A.J. Pierzynski: 33/.270/.300/.388
John Buck: 30/.281/.314/.489
Alex Avila: 23/.228/.316/.340
Buck is the cream of the crop, but he’s going to be pursued by quite a few teams, and 30 may be a little old for the long term deal that I’m guessing he’ll be looking for. I don’t think Martinez makes any sense because he’s primarily 1B/DH these days, and we’ve already got Guillen penciled in at DH. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love Martinez, but we already have a DH who will spend 1/3 of the season on the DL. I think I could deal with Pierzynski on a one year deal (though it would need to be less than the $6.75M he made last year) if he could help to groom Avila, or provide a bridge to whomever is next in line.
Bryan Holaday looks to be the only promising player in the farm system, and he’s likely a few years away from being ready to compete for the big league job. (He spent all of last year at Lakeland.)
What are your thoughts? Can you figure out a way to make Martinez work? Who’s in the John Buck hunt? White Sox, Rangers and Mets come to mind.
I write this amidst a backdrop of Edgar Renteria headlines…Did you know that Thursday was his first 3 RBI game of the season…
The short list for 2011 SS starts and ends with Jhonny Peralta. The Tigers are sitting on a $7.25M club option, but they are leaning towards declining it (there is a $250k buyout…what a racket). Note that he made $4.85M last year. They have until 5 days after the WS ends to make a decision. Peralta has a career .748 OPS, .703 last year (.710 with the Tigers). He’s been above .800 twice, but he really has not come close to hi 2005 season which saw him hit 35 doubles, slug 24 homers, and end with an .886 OPS. According to Fangraphs, he was in the middle of the AL defensively (though he had a negative fielding rating) with a 1.4 WAR. His ZR and RF are middle of the pack as well, at SS, though he didn’t qualify for a full season at either SS or 3B.
Beck wrote a few days ago that the Tigers are working on a two-year deal with him, for a little less than Inge’s deal.
If somehow the Peralta deal does not get done, here’s a list of free agent short stops (thank’s to Cot’s for the list), * means that either the player or the team have a 2011 option. Any interest?
Orlando Cabrera CIN *
Craig Counsell MIL
Alex Gonzalez ATL *
Cristian Guzman TEX
J.J. Hardy MIN
Jerry Hairston Jr. SD
Omar Infante ATL *
Cesar Izturis BAL
Derek Jeter NYY
Jhonny Peralta DET *
Edgar Renteria SF *
Jose Reyes NYM *
Jimmy Rollins PHI *
Juan Uribe SF
Ramon Vazquez HOU
Chris Woodward SEA
This are pretty bare down on the farm. Cale Iorg has headed up the Tigers SS prospects for a few years, though at 25, the clock is ticking on him. Gustavo Nunez had a promising 2009, only to recess in 2010. Nunez is 22 and worth keeping an eye one. Unfortunately, that’s about it. (Note that 19 year old Daniel Fields, a Detroit native, came up as a SS, but was moved to CF over the summer.)