Category Archives: Players

Free Agents, Pitching, Players

Newsflash: Rivera is better than Jones

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Drew Sharp had a blurb in today’s Free Press in which he argued that “making a one-year commitment to Todd Jones for 2008 is still a better financial and competitive investment than giving Mariano Rivera three years at nearly $40 million.”

It isn’t that assertion that bothers me. One could make an argument that an affordable 1 year deal to provide some depth while your closer in waiting matures is more fiscally responsible than sinking big money into a position that can be filled for less. I’m not going to get into that discussion right now.

But as part of his reasoning Sharp asserted:

Rivera is a future Hall of Famer, but he’s 38 and living more off previous reputation than any current intimidation factor.

There isn’t much distinguishing him — right now — from Jones from a production standpoint.

This is just wrong. Sharp offers no proof of this preposterous assertion, he just leaves it to the reader to believe him. In case you don’t want to take Drew Sharp at face value, here are their 2007 stats, I’ll let you figure out which pitcher is which.

Stat	PitA	PitB
IP	71.1	61.1
H	68	64
HR	4	3
BB	12	23
SO	74	33
R	25	29
FIP	2.61	3.88

Jones probably gets too much grief for what he isn’t. But to assert they are the same player from “a production standpoint” is just, umm, pick your adjective.

Todd Jones Stats and Graphs – Detroit Tigers | FanGraphs
Mariano Rivera Stats and Graphs – New York Yankees | FanGraphs
DREW SHARP: Todd Jones a better signing than Mariano Rivera

2007 Season, Managing & Strategy, Pitching, Players

Leveraging Todd Jones

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WPA Leaders

Rank Name WPA
1 J.J. Putz 6.17
2 R. Betancourt 5.38
3 Takashi Saito 4.27
4 Heath Bell 4.12
5 Joakim Soria 3.85
6 J. Papelbon 3.72
7 Joe Nathan 3.63
8 F. Rodriguez 2.95
9 Hideki Okajima 2.93
10 Pat Neshek 2.83
11 Carlos Marmol 2.8
12 Brandon Lyon 2.8
13 J. Isringhausen 2.75
14 Manuel Corpas 2.71
15 Tony Pena 2.56
39 Todd Jones 1.57

WPA or win probability added tracks a teams chances of winning over the course of a game and the measure for an individual player is the difference in win probability when a player enters the game compared to when they leave. WPA of .5 represents 1 win. The complete list of WPA reliever leaders can be found at Fangraphs.

Last week Dave Dombrowski indicated that the club would like to have Todd Jones back, but under the condition that he may be moved out of the closer’s role at some point during the season. Right now the ball is in Todd Jones court as he evaluates his options, and tries for a gig closer to his Alabama home. But is a set up role better for Jones than as the 9th inning man?

Not your typical closer

Jones doesn’t possess one trait that is common among closers, an ability to strike hitters out. In 2007 Todd Jones was dead last, by a considerable margin, among closers (or people who finished at least 35 games). His 4.84 was considerably behind David Weathers 5.56. What’s more is that there were 12 closers who’s K-rate was more than double that of Jones.

Still, Jones manages success because of other things he doesn’t do. His renaissance as a closer came in 2005 with the Florida Marlins when he simply stopped walking people. He only issued 25 free passes between 2005 and 2006 in over 130 innings. However in 2007 he struggled with his control, relatively speaking and issued 23 walks in 61.1 innings, and that put him in the bottom half of closers.

So with a bad strike out rate, and a not so good walk rate, he must have had sterling defense behind him right? Not so much. His batting average on balls in play was .299 which ranked in the bottom 3rd, or the top 3rd depending on your point of view, but it’s the bad 3rd regardless.

Look at these numbers, how did Jones manage to have blown save numbers comparable to Francisco Rodriguez and Bobby Jenks? He had 2 things working for him. The first is that he keeps the ball in the park. He only allowed only allowed 3 homers this year, and a slugging percentage of .371 meant that it would take several hits for Jones to blow a save.
Continue reading Leveraging Todd Jones →

Contracts, Players

Pudge speculation and innuendo

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We’ve now heard from all the relevant players involved in the should we exercise Pudge’s option discussion. Mike Ilitch weighed in on Pudge last night:

“Pudge did a big thing for us, putting a face on the franchise,” Ilitch told The Associated Press on Wednesday night. “He’s made a lot of contributions.
“I don’t think it’ll be a tough call, but we’ll see.”

And Pudge’s agent Scott Boras made his statement yesterday as well:

“In this marketplace, if they no longer wanted Pudge, that would surprise me, knowing what Pudge has done for the organization and knowing the loyalty the Ilitch family has for their players,” Boras said.

Boras of course speaks agent, so make of it what you will. He also cited that since Pudge had made the club so much money that he thought it would lead to the “fulfillment of his contract” which of course will be fulfilled either through the buyout or the option. Nevermind that Pudge made a lot of money playing for the club, way more than anyone else was offering at the time and the Tigers essentially bailed out Boras and Pudge.

Dave Dombrowski of course chimed in on Monday with the media and in typical Dombrowski fashion didn’t indicate which way the club was leaning.

And the then final player in this drama, Pudge, spoke of his time in Detroit in the past tense. Of course he was asked to reflect on his time in Detroit, or essentially he was asked to reflect on the past, so I don’t see the use of the past tense as peculiar.

“It was a good roll here. It was very nice. Very good four years.”

So put the pieces together the way you want. I still think he’s coming back, either via the option or an extension.

2008 Season, Players, Roster Management

To Pudge or not to Pudge

23 Comments

One of the Tigers biggest decisions this off season will be whether or not to exercise Pudge Rodriguez’s $13 million option.  The net cost to the Tigers is $10 million because there is a $3 million buyout.  But be it $10 million or $13 million there is no way that Rodriguez will be “worth” what he is owed.  Still I think exercising the option is something the Tigers should do.

Rodriguez has caught over 2000 games, and is in a well expected decline phase of his career.  Next year he’ll be 36 and there’s no reason to believe things will be better.  His slugging percentage has declined each of the last 4 years and the .420 slugging he posted this year was the lowest since 1993.

But his slugging is the acceptable part of his offensive stat line.  For the second time in the last 3 years he finished with a sub .300 on base percentage.  He’s drawn a whopping 46 walks the last 3 years combined.

And then there is his defense.  Rodriguez is much heralded for his ability to shut down the running game, and it has been largely deserved up until this year.  However his caught stealing rate fell to 29% this year which was the lowest of his career.  He also had trouble blocking balls as he allowed .510 passed balls and wild pitches to get by him per game.

Okay, so I haven’t painted a compelling reason to bring him back.  But it really comes down to a matter of if not Pudge, then who?  The free agent class includes the likes of Jason Kendall and Michael Barrett.    Two of the bigger names are Paul Lo Duca and Jorge Posada, but both are the same age as Rodriguez which is a dangerous age for a catcher.

Rodriguez’s offensive numbers were bad, and I don’t really look for them to get better.  I’d expect a few more walks and a slightly better OBP next year, but I also expect the slugging to continue to drop.  But even with the decline he’s still better than Lo Duca who had a .690 OPS this year.

As for the defense, Rodriguez was still above average at throwing out baserunners and ranked 5th among all starting catchers.  While his kills were down, it was in a year when stolen base percentage reached an all time high of 74.6%.  Plus throw in the deterrent that his reputation is and he had the 4th fewest attempts per game against him.  And it was still superior to Lo Duca’s 19% or Posada’s 22%.

As for the passed balls and wild pitches, he does rank 3rd from the bottom.  He does rank ahead of Posada and he’s 2 spots behind A.J. Pierzynski who just received a 2 year extension that will pay him $6.25 million in 2009 and 2010. 

Out of all the options, Rodriguez’s might be the most palatable.  Upgrading the position is going to be difficult at best and could prove to be impossible.  I’m not going to say that Rodriguez won’t be overpaid if he comes back, but do you overpay for 1 year of Pudge or 3 to 4 years of another mediocre catcher?

Danny Knobler is saying that the Tigers are likely to turn down the option I don’t know if he is reporting or opining, but his information is usually pretty good.  If that’s the case I’d hope that the Tigers look to bring back Pudge for not one, but two more years at a discounted per year rate.

Tigers unlikely to bring back Pudge – MLive.com: Detroit Tigers
THT Catching – Major League Baseball Statistics

2007 Season, Players

Stay classy Sean Casey

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While there is a lot up in the air regarding the Tigers roster, one thing isn’t and that is Sean Casey’s future.  Casey met with Dombrowski and Leyland and they let him know he won’t be returning.

This isn’t a big surprise given the Tigers announcement that Carlos Guillen would be moving to first base.  And while there was a contingent who would like to see Casey kept around as a pinch hitter, it isn’t feasible in an era of 12 man pitching staffs.  Casey can’t run and can only play the easiest defensive position to fill which just isn’t enough to justify a roster spot.

Casey was a popular guy, but the production just wasn’t there.  His .296/.354/394 line was about as good as what could be expected given his career numbers.  The only real surprising part of his season is that he stayed healthy.

Casey was basically all of the Tigers offense in the World Series last year and so Tigers fans should have some fond memories of The Mayor.

Casey won’t return to Tigers

2008 Season, Players

Tigers need a shortstop

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The decision has been made, Carlos Guillen is moving to first base in 2008. Kind of a strange time to announce it and then there is this curious quote from Guillen:

Guillen recently said he’d only switch if he was assured that the Tigers were going to replace him with someone good — “a Gold Glover,” he said. But he said Friday, without naming names, “it’s going to be someone good, someone very good.”

So does this mean the Tigers have already identified a shortstop and worked out a trade in principle? Does it mean that this plan only goes through if the Tigers come through with someone very good?

If you’re holding your breath thinking that the Tigers have already worked out something with Alex Rodriguez, exhale. That would be tampering in a legal sense, and just plain silly given that Rodriguez is going to be busy with playoffs and what not.

Guillen went on record earlier saying he’d only move for a gold glove caliber shortstop, and indicated that he wouldn’t move for a Jack Wilson type player. But Leyland has smoothed things over with Guillen and he appears ready to make the move.

Tigers to switch Guillen to first base

UPDATE: Scratch all that weirdness talk up there. Danny Knobler ran the full quote, which makes a whole lot of sense and doesn’t lead bloggers to wild speculation:

“I know they’ll bring in a good (shortstop),” Guillen said. “I know it’s going to be a good one. I don’t know who it’s going to be, but I know it’s going to be a good one.”

2007 Season, Players, Statistics

Granderson and the Quad-20

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Congratulations to Curtis Granderson becoming one of only 3 players in the history of Major League Baseball to post a season totals of 20 or more doubles, triples, homers, and stolen bases. While the plateaus are kind of arbitrary it is still a remarkable achievement and helps to highlight just how special of a season that Granderson is having. He’s all over the AL leaderboards:

Slugging – 5th
OPS – 9th
Runs -2nd
Total Bases – 3rd
Triples – 1st (with more than double the next closest)
Runs Created – 4th
Extra base hits -2nd

And those ranks were prior to today’s 4 for 4 game. Plus he’s done it while playing a key position expertly in the Major’s biggest centerfield. The guy has to finish in the top 10 in MVP voting or something is seriously wrong.

As for those other seasons they belong to Frank Wiildfire Schulte and Willie Mays. Each of those seasons were pretty interesting as well.

Frank Schulte, 1911

Have you ever taken a look at the 1911 NL leaderboards? If you had you probably knew of Schulte, which not many do. He won the MVP that year as led the league in homers with 21 when the next closest was 16. He led in RBI, total bases, and slugging and tied with Honus Wagner for the lead in adjusted OPS. He stole 21 bases that year, which really wasn’t a big deal for the era, when the leader had 81. But he did so with out being caught once. Interestingly he was second in the league with 31 sacrifice hits. Unlike Granderson Schulte only struck out 76 times. But unlike 2007, that was enough to lead the league.

Willie Mays, 1957

People kind of know about Willie Mays, cuz he’s like really good. In 1957 he was a 26 year old who already had an MVP award under his belt. He finished with 35 homers, the best total of the three,, 20 triples, 26 doubles, and 38 stolen bases. He was caught 19 times though which isn’t all that impressive and it was by far the highest total in his career. He managed to wrack up all those extra base hits despite 15 intentional walks. And he racked up all those homers despite striking out only 62 times. But Willie is just really really good.

Other coverage

Tiger Tales: A Detroit Tigers Blog: Granderson Reaches 20 20 20 20
Roar of the Tigers | MVN – Most Valuable Network » Blog Archive » win or lose, Granderson is The Man (possibly The Tiger)

2007 Season, Players

It’s Curtis Granderson day

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Yesterday Maggs got the honors with the Player of the Month award. Today is a Curtis Granderson media blitz.

First, he was the Tigers nominee for the Roberto Clemente award which honors players for their commitment to community and understanding of the value of helping others. Curtis’s work in this area is extensive and he’s a deserving nominee. If you’re impressed you can help Granderson by voting.

He is also the front page story at ESPN.com as Tim Kurkjian explores some of Granderson’s remarkable statistical feats this year.

And if you haven’t had enough Curtis, he did a chat on ESPN.com today as well.

2007 Season, Players

Magglio Ordonez is Mr. August

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Magglio Ordonez was named player of the month for August as he finished first in RBI (31), tied for first with homers (10), and third with a .393 batting average. Considering that Gary Sheffield missed the bulk of the month either on the DL, or just being ineffective, it was a particularly impressive feat with the cast of characters in the #3 spot in the order. For the month Tigers 3 hole hitters combined for a 221/275/361 line making the 31 RBI remarkable to say the least.

Magg’s is the first Tiger to win the award since Pudge hit .500 in June 2004

2007 Season, Players

En-Inge-matic

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Coming off a 3rd straight frustrating loss, Jim Leyland announced that Ryan Raburn would be the starter over a struggling Brandon Inge. With Inge’s recent play, and Craig Monroe’s departure, Brandon has taken over the role of the Tiger that people love to hate. And with statements like the following, he isn’t exactly endearing himself to the fanbase.

“I can’t explain it,” said Inge, batting .242 with 12 home runs and 56 RBIs. “I’m getting pitched like I’m Babe Ruth. Everything is on the corner. I haven’t seen a ball in the middle of the plate for a week.”

Inge is the Tiger that spurs the most polarized debate. Inge bashers point to his high error total and low batting average and advocate for more offense from a power position. Inge defenders point to his exceptional range, his power, and his role as a number 9 hitter. For the first time since Pudge Rodriguez assumed regular catching duties, it is getting harder to find people in Inge’s camp.

Myself, I’m somewhere in the middle. I was a proponent of his contract. I looked at his 265/327/443 line in 2004-2006 and viewed it as a new level of performance. It was (and still is) a far cry from his career numbers up to that point, a meager 198/254/314. line. And coming off a season in 2006 where the the average AL third sacker hit 269/338/442, he was certainly close to average for the position offensively.

What made the contract solid to me is that Inge’s defense is top shelf. Yes he has the errors, but he also rated at or near the top in other more advanced metrics like the probabilistic model of range and John Dewan’s +/ system (both of which account for his errors, and he still ranked high). Three different systems placed his defensive value in the neighborhood of 20 runs, which combined with near average offense makes for an above average player.

Because those 2004-2006 seasons coincided with his age 27-29 peak seasons, I didn’t expect Inge to improve on those numbers. But given his athleticism and body type I also anticipated that he would be able to maintain similar numbers in the near future without a dramatic dropoff. The fact that he had OPS+’s of 108, 100, and 99 in those years mean he was reasonably consistent over that time and it wasn’t a single peak year spiking the numbers.

With all that said, 2007 has been a major disappointment – or at least parts of it. Inge’s season can really be broken down into 3 parts, 2 of which were largely forgettable. He struggled mightily in April, was very productive in May and June, and has looked more like 2003 Inge since the beginning of July.
Inge’s Walks and Strikeouts

Early in the year when Inge was struggling, he was at least drawing walks and hitting for some power with a .163 ISO. He was fanning quite a bit, but that’s part of what you get with Inge. He also was probably battling some bad luck as his batting average on balls in play was very low.
Inge’s batted ball types

In the second act Brandon continued to draw walks a pretty good clip, and he really cut down in his strikeouts. For a 2 month stretch he was a very good player, and a big part of the Tigers offensive surge. His season line on June 25th was 259/356/453 which is quite solid. And then July happened.

The first thing that happened is Inge stopped taking walks. That was right about the same time his line drive percentage plummeted and shortly there after he started to strikeout at a ridiculous rate. A trend that is still underway and manifested itself this past weekend in New York. He’s walked 5 times since July 1st and his on base percentage has plummeted with it. He has 9 extra base hits over that timespan and his slugging percentage is now south of .400.

What is odd is that he’s actually maintained his batting average on balls in play, and as of late the line drive rate is on the way back up. In fact for the season his line drive rate is at 22.4% which is the highest mark of his career, and vastly superior to his 14% last year. And yet his numbers are way down because he can’t put the ball in play.

What about his fielding? I see mixed results. Despite the error this weekend, his fielding percentage is right in line with his career numbers. And if you look at revised zone rating he is second only to Mike Lowell, and he’s made more plays on ball outside of his zone than third baseman except for Adrian Beltre. But his impact defensively isn’t what it was last year, and I attribute that in large part to Kenny Rogers absence. Rogers induced a ton of grounders, and as a lefty the bulk went in Inge’s direction.

As someone who has been an Inge defender in the past I did it based on near average offensive production, combined with stellar defense. Now I’m looking at a player who is far below average at the dish and merely good in the field. I’ll still defend Inge to those who say he is a garbage player, but I can’t defend his production where it is at right now. When it comes to the benching, I think there is probably a little too much being made of it. I could be wrong, but I don’t see it as an extended time period. The Tigers just made two moves to bolster the defense in bringing up Cameron Maybin (I’m not saying this one is working, but it was part of the intention) and Ramon Santiago and if that’s the emphasis then swapping Ryan Raburn and Brandon Inge doesn’t make a lot of sense. If there is a platoon it may be based on who the Tigers are starting. If it’s Miller or Robertson I’d look for Inge, but the right handed guns I’d look for Raburn.

And back to Inge’s original quote about being pitched to like Babe Ruth…Maybe it’s worth pointing out that Ruth walked over 2000 times in his career. I’m just sayin…

For Inge data see:

Contracts, Players, Roster Management

Tigers ink Rick Porcello, irritate Selig

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Well there’s some happy news at least as the Tigers have agreed to terms with Rick Porcello. Porcello of course is the Tigers first round draft choice, who despite being the top high school pitcher in the draft, slid to the Tigers at 27 due to those “signability issues” that Tigers fans have become so fond of.

Porcello is now the Tigers number 2 prospect, right behind Cameron Maybin.

The deal appears to be for something north of $7 million and Baseball America reports that it is a Major League contract. This is significant, more significant than the money, because it means that Porcello is placed on the 40 man roster immediately. And with that comes an option year this season. But I believe due to his age at time of signing, he’ll get a 4th option year meaning that the Tigers won’t have to put him on the big league roster until 2011.

As for the money I’ve seen $7.3 and $7.7 reported but either way it is a record for a high school player and it is way above the “suggested” slotting system that MLB has in place. And of course it is a ton of money for a high school kid who is still a long ways from the bigs, but it’s an even longer ways until free agency (6 years of big league service time). So if he gets up and has any measure of success he becomes a bargain compared to replacing that production on the open market.

Porcello’s stuff includes a mid 90’s fastball and both a slow curve and sharp slider. He also commands a change up.

We’ll see if the Tigers announce the signing of 5th round pick Casey Crosby who has reportedly been in the fold for quite some time. But again because the Tigers were going over slot, they were waiting until closer to the deadline to announce. Cale Iorg and Dominic De La Osa are the other remaining Tiger top 10 picks who are unsigned.