ALCS, Tigers 1, Yankees 0.

Well, that was certainly exhausting, and it seems so soon to pick it up and do it all over again.  And I’m just speaking of the fans; imagine how draining that was for the participants.

Well, the big topic of last night’s game among many, is the potato in the room, which can no longer be ignored. Despite all of the “who could have predicted this” commentary last night on the TV broadcast, those of us who have been following the Tigers could have, and did predict that Valverde in the 9th was trouble.

In the past, Leyland has always supported his closer, closed ranks, and said, hey this is our guy.  When an exhausted and bleary-eyed Leyland said in the post-game interview that he needs to talk to his staff before he would comment on the closer situation, you knew this time was different.

Apparently the Tigers are going to go with a bullpen by committee approach for now. Although he still refers to Valverde as his closer. Although he won’t be closing today. In other words, we’ll have to watch and see. Valverde isn’t going away just yet (“Jose Valverde is sitll a huge part of this team”), but it is unclear what his role will be from here on out.

The Valverde implosion was so dramatic that is easy to forget that once again Joaquin Benoit was hit and hit hard (Austin Jackson with the save!), and it would not be hard to imagine Leyland going to Benoit in the 9th inning, so don’t put away the antacids just yet (although I am predicting Alburquerque for today).

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And don’t let the 9th inning meltdown distract from what was one more brilliant starting performance by Detroit, and a good showing by most of the bullpen. In fact Tiger pitching held the Yankees scoreless for 11 total innings yesterday.  Doug Fister fought through a string of bases-loaded situations, fought off a line on his pitching wrist, and came up with just enough strikeouts to blank the Yankees over 6 1/3 hard-fought, gutsy innings. (In fact when Fister escaped three bases-loaded jams he became the first to do that to the Yankees in their 375-game postseason history, in case you’re keeping track).

Benoit was scary, but Phil Coke may have had his best outing of the season, Octavio Dotel was solid after the Valverde meltdown (and may be the closer-in-waiting), and young Drew Smyly showed that he was up to the big stage, calmly putting down the Yankee lefties.  So all-in-all, the Tiger pitching, as predicted, has been the key to Tiger success in this series.

Today they hand the ball to Anibal, who has a short and inglorious history facing the Yankees: 7 runs over 7-plus innings in a 12-8 loss on Aug. 8.

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From the Yankee perspective of course, the Tiger bullpen implosion pales in comparison with losing Derek Jeter, whose season is finished after fracturing his ankle fielding a Peralta gounder. Jeter will be replaced by Jayson Nix, who hit .243 with 4 HRs and a .690 OPS.  What may be irreplacable is Jeter’s leadership, and expect even more attention to focus on Alex Rodriguez in the wake of Jeter’s loss.

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Stat of the Day: The Tigers are 1-0 this postseason when billfer comments on DTW.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera has faced Yankee starter Hiroki Kuroda 9 times, with 2 HRs and an OPS of 1.667.

Today’s Stealing-Home-Field-Advantage Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry LF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Andy Dirks LF
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Alex Avila C
9. Omar Infante 2B

4 wins away from the WS. 8 wins away from a championship.

A few weeks ago, I asked everyone how far would the Tigers have to advance in the playoffs for you to want to bring Leyland back? I said I’d be happy if he went deep into the ALCS, and it looks like there’s a good chance that happens…what was your response? Be honest now.

Honestly, I like our chances in this series. Our starting pitching has been remarkable since early September. The four starters posted a sub 1.50 ERA in the ALDS. Yes, it was against the Oakland Athletics, a team that batted .238 with a .714 OPS during the regular season. But that explains a 3.25 or 2.75 ERA, not 1.50. Fister, Sanchez, Verlander and Fister vs. Pettitte, Kuroda, Sabathia and Hughes.

And as bad at the Tigers bats seemed against the As (I can’t remember more than 5 RBIs on hits), they were actually the best offense of the 4 ALDS teams. Cabrera, who has reached base in all 16 of his post-season games with the Tigers, won’t be shut down like that again. Once he gets going, the rest of the guys will too.

Now, the bullpen is an issue. Or the back of the bullpen is an issue. I think that Leyland will go with Benoit and Valverde until they each blow another one, and then I think he’ll stick with them in their designated innings, but with Dotel looking over their shoulder. Not what I want him to do, but that’s what I think he’ll do.

Would you classify Tigers/Yankees as a rivalry? I certainly wouldn’t, but 3 playoff match-ups in 7 years isn’t bad. Pretty legit that the Tigers have been to the ALCS 3 times in the last 7 years, which speaks to the talents of Verlander and Santiago. Actually, since 2006, only the Yankees and Tigers have made 3 ALCS appearances. Selective sampling, I know, but perhaps Dombrowski and Leyland deserve more credit than we give them.

On to tonight’s game – 8pm Eastern on TBS. Fister v. Pettitte.

Andy Pettitte came out of hiding in May (I guess Clemens finally accepted the retraction) to pitch phenomenally, if only on a limited basis, for the Yankees this year. Pettitte started 12 games and finished with a 5-4 record, a 2.87 ERA, and a 1.14 WHIP. That said, he had pretty significant R/L splits, with righties posting a .245 ERA and .681 OPS against .202 and .516 for lefties. In terms of playoff experience, Andy Pettitte is a triple secret black belt. He’s amassed well over a season’s worth of innings, 270, and has an impressive 19-11 postseason record with a 3.83 ERA. Fister has 24 career postseason IPs, and a 2-1 record and 4.13 ERA.

Fister followed up a marvelous September (3-1, 2.34 ERA) with a good start in game 2 of the ALDS. Roughly a year ago he started game 5 of the ALDS in New York, and held the Yankees to 1 ER over 5 innings, earning a W. He may need to go a bit deeper tonight, but I don’t think that nerves will be a problem.

The Tigers were 4-6 against the evil empire this year, 3-4 there, and 1-2 at Comerica. Cabrera (4-12, 2 HR), Peralta (6-16, 3) and Young (11-19) all mash against Pettitte.

A few notes:

– Roster stays the same for the ALCS. Still wondering why Santiago is on there. I guess it’s a 2006 thing.

– If you think that the baseball nation knows anything about baseball, then things are looking good for the Tigers. According to an ESPN poll, 61% of sportsnation thinks the Tigers will win, and the majority feel that the Tigers have the better hittiers and starting pitching.

– For those of you who are in to Fangraphs (like I am), here’s a nice long run down on the series.

– Due to an internal glitch, the Nationals sent their fans a WS pre-sale notice this morning, just hours after the most heartbreaking loss in franchise history. So you know when people say “well, it can’t get any worse than this?” They’re wrong.

Tonight’s Tone Setting Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Infante, 2B
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Dirks, LF
8. Garcia, RF (my pick to click)
9. Laird, C

Well, relaxing didn’t seem to help.

Sure, Max Scherzer seemed relaxed and efficient, keeping the A’s to 4 base runners and no earned runs through 5 1/3, while striking out 8.

Unfortunately the bats were a bit relaxed as well, as the Tigers only managed to score 3 runs despite 10 hits, and although Fielder had a big fly, his relaxed glove at first led to Oakland’s 6th inning unearned run,

But all that relaxing was nothing compared to the 9th inning tension spawned by Jose Valverde, who gave up runs until the A’s didn’t need any more. If that seems like the same old 2012 Valverde to some, it did come in a new flavor:  he was sporting a new pre-delivery back waggle (his actual delivery appeared to be the same).

Everyone seemed to notice it except Valverde and Avila, who both said, nope, nothing different.

Now both ends of the backend bullpen tandem have blown leads already this series.  And if Tiger fans aren’t tense enough going into tonight’s deciding game, be aware that both Benoit and Valverde are ready to go tonight, and it would be very unlike Jim Leyland to not go back to his 8th inning and 9th inning guys again tonight.

In the heat of the moment last night, I found myself hoping that that was the last time I would see Valverde closing a game in a Tiger uniform.  Since the only way that will happen is if they lose tonight, I take it back.

Speaking of Leyland, in case you missed it, he says he is not going to go away, and intends to continue managing beyond this season. (Whether or not the Tigers make that decision for him has probably been affected by knowing that Francona is now unavailable as a replacement).

At any rate, one thing that has worked out is that it is Justin Verlander’s turn to take the mound.  For all of those of who answer Verlander to the question which pitcher would you want in one must-win game, here you go.  Hopefully he keeps the pitch count low and limits bullpen opportunities; if I were JV they might need to call security to keep me from taking the mound in the 9th.

Stat of the Day: Fielder and Cabrera combined for an 0-for-5 against tonight’s starter Jarrod Parker in Game 1.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Miguel Cabrera. Time for Mr. Triple Crown to stop hugging it out with Inge and the A’s, and unleash an MVP-worthy performance.

Today’s Rubbery Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry LF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Andy Dirks LF
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Alex Avila C
9. Omar Infante 2B

Relax, don’t worry.  That’s the message Jim Leyland has for the Tigers and Tiger faithful after the A’s shut out Detroit 2-0 on Tuesday night to stay alive in the ALDS.

Anibal Sanchez and the Tiger bullpen were up to the task, but the Tigers are still waiting for their offense to be unleashed, a common refrain that’s bound to bring a sigh from those of us who have been paying attention all season.

But what would postgame comments be without a bit of “that’s baseball:” “We’re going to have to hit better. But it’s baseball, and you never know how it’s going to play out.” There, that’s better.

Probably a tip of the cap is in order too, because the missing Tiger offense was due in large part to some fielding gems by the A’s outfielders (both on balls hit by the snakebit Fielder), and by some great pitching by Brett Anderson, making his first appearance in almost a month.

Oakland seemed to draw on the energy of its vocal fans, who are likely to be even more inspired now that the A’s have one in the win column.

Still, no reason to worry.

Actually, maybe you should.

In which camp are you?

The Tigers will turn to Max Scherzer tonight, who will attempt to show that he has recovered from shoulder and ankle injuries, and exploit the Oakland penchant for striking out.

The A’s will counter with another rookie (naturally), A.J Griffin, whose last playoff experience was in last season’s Class-A California League playoffs. He faced the Tigers on Sept 18 and gave up 5 runs in 4 2/3 innings, including a home run to Prince Fielder, who is certainly due.

Stat of the Day: The Tigers offense has struggled frequently this season, but not to the point of being shutout often–the Tigers were shut out only twice in the regular season, the fewest of any team in the Majors.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Max Scherzer. Mad Max needs to dial up the K’s.

Today’s Rookie-Beating Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry LF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Andy Dirks RF
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Alex Avila C
9. Omar Infante 2B

The Tigers swept the home series with the A’s and now have 3 tries to finish the job in Oakland.

John Lowe gives 3 reasons why we shouldn’t assume a Tiger series win:

• The Tigers haven’t really hit the A’s well yet
• Joaquin Benoit
• Home field advantage–the A’s just swept 3 must-win games there against Texas

I’m sure our faithful readers can add more reasons of their own.

Here are 3 reasons I think the Tigers will win it:

• Strikeouts: The A’s led the AL in striking out; the Tiger pitchers led in strikeouts, a match made in heaven, or at least a match made to reduce the clown show opportunities.  The playoff rotation is without the one Tiger non-strikeout pitcher (Porcello).
• Al Alburquerque: The Q-Factor has continued his clutch pitching, and Jim Leyland had said during the season the team could use a big of swagger, and Alburkissy certainly swaggered it up.
• The Twos.  Berry and Infante are a combined 4-8 in the 2 spot. Infante seems to have recovered from his fielding funk and his bat has heated up at the right time; the speed of Berry has put pressure on the Oakland defense.

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At any rate, apparently the most important even of Sunday’s game was that Al Alburquerque kissed the baseball before throwing it to first, at least judging by media coverage.  Al for his part has apologized;  Leyland doesn’t seem to be a fan of the move either. It seemed to crack up most of the Tiger players, many of whom referred to Alburquerque’s crazy personality, which is something I think we need to hear more about.

The A’s weren’t as amused; even Brandon Inge took issue (was afraid of going through this series without an Inge item).  Drew Sharp was in favor, since he thinks baseball is a bit too boring.

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Tonight Anibal Sanchez takes the mound for the sweep. Dave Dombrowski has come out as being in favor of keeping Sanchez, which will make for some interesting decisions over the offseason, financial and otherwise, which are outlined by Jason Beck.

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Stat of the Day: Regardless of what the RH/LH match ups say, Detroit should probably just go with whoever the DH is in the late innings. The Tigers pinch-hit for their DH 8 times in 2012, with an OPS of .000.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Anibal Sanchez.  The Oakland A’s have struck out (literally) against Detroit pitching so far in this series, 23 times already in the first 2 games.  Anibal needs to get in touch with his inner K to make this a short series.

Today’s Righteous Righty Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Omar Infante 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Jhonny Peralta SS
7. Andy Dirks LF
8. Avisail Garcia RF
9. Gerald Laird C

1-0, 2 games left to win in the series.

Prior to last night, JV was 0-2 with a 9 ERA in 3 previous game 1 playoff starts.  After Coco Crisp lined the 4th pitch of the game into the RF bleachers, on a 1-2 count no less, it looked like more of the same. But it wasn’t.

Verlander then went into beast mode, and allowed only 2 hits and 6 base runners over 7 innings while striking out 11, including 5 of the last 6. The A’s only advanced to 2B once after the HR, and never had more than 1 runner on in an inning. The four walks were a little uncharacteristic, but note that they were all on full-counts.

I honestly believe that JV didn’t have his best stuff last night. He didn’t locate well, and obviously labored with the high PC. But he absolutely shut down a team that had won 6 in a row prior to last night, and seems to be the it pick in the playoffs.

The bullpen the came in and threw just as well, as Valverde had perhaps his best save of the year.

Cabrera and Fielder were surprisingly quiet, going 0-7 with a walk and GIDP (no RBI), but Berry’s speed created mayhem in the A’s infield, and Alex Avila hit his first HR of the season during a JV start.

All together it was a 3-1 win, and the perfect start to the ALDS.

Today’s A’s starter is lefty Tommy Milone. Milone is 13-10 on the year with a 3.74 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. His K/9 is only 6.49, which is a little below average, but he hardly walks anyone – 1.78 BB/9, which gives him an outstanding K/BB ratio of nearly 4:1.  Milone’s fastball will top out at around 90 MPH, but he’s got a plus change and has 5 pitches that he throws with regularity (2 seamer, 4 seamer, change, cutter, curve).

Both of Milone’s starts against the Tigers during the regular season ended up in Oakland blowouts. Milone pitched well back on May 11th , allowing only 1 ER on 5 hits in 7 innings. The Tigers then got to him for 3 runs and 9 hits in only 4 2/3 a few weeks ago on September 20th, but those early runs didn’t hold up and the A’s ran away later in the game. In those two starts the Tigers managed 14 hits (.311 BAA) and 4 walks (.360 OBP), but only 3 XBH, all doubles. So look for extra bases, and not just singles, to be the difference today.

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A few updates:

– Found this post on Fangraphs which says that the matchup is pretty close. Always interesting to see them labor through the numbers.

– Rod Allen thinks that today is a must-win for the A’s. With JV slated for game 5, it’s hard to argue, says ESPN’s David Schoenfield (and everyone else). Though Rod may want a redo on his game 2 “I see you,” since Avila is not starting today.

– The New York Times ran a nice piece on Cabrera on Friday, and reminded us that the last 3 Triple Crown winners all played in the World Series.

Today’s Morning (in Texas) Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Infante, 2B
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Dirks, LF
8. Garcia, RF
9. Laird, C

It was a long road, and never easy, but the Tigers did it, and the playoffs are here! Let baseball’s second season begin!

Because of the peculiarities of this season’s scheduling, even though Detroit is the away team, they get the first two games of the best of five series at home, beginning with Justin Verlander on the mound tonight at 6:07, and Doug Fister tomorrow afternoon at 12:07, before heading out west to Oakland on Tuesday.

The Tigers won the regular season series with the A’s 4 games to 3, but the A’s come into the postseason as the hottest team in baseball, overcoming a 5-game deficit in 9 days to steal the AL West on the last game of the season from the Texas Rangers, who are now headed home to figure out what happened to their season.

First things first:  the Tiger playoff roster is set, and in what may be a bit of a surprise, Brennan Boesch was left off, while Don Kelly and Danny Worth are in.  In addition Brayan Villarreal was left out, which means Al Alburquerque will assume a big role. Rick Porcello will move to the bullpen for long relief.

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So who are these Oakland A’s anyway? Nobody expected them to contend this season, not even Billy Beane, who thought he was assembling a rebuilding team who would contend in 3 years. Sports Illustrated tries to reverse-engineer the A’s to see what went so right, including an aggressive running game and an efficient mix of part-time players, who combined to give the A’s the most opposite-handed plate appearances in the AL, which makes their lineup hard to name, but also difficult to beat. (SI also predicts Oakland will take it in four).

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The contrast between the two clubs is maybe nowhere more apparent than in the pitching match-ups. Oakland hands the ball to rookie right-hander Jarrod Parker (13-8, 3.47), who leads a team of rookies that combined to account for 54 wins (and 56 home runs). Parker’s gem is his change-up:  he has thrown over 600 of them this season, and has yet to have one leave the yard.

Parker will face reigning MVP/Cy Young Justin Verlander, who is looking to establish himself as a postseason pitcher in front of the home crowd.  Verlander’s postseason totals hardly say “ace” (3-3, 5.57), but he has been bounced around a lot by rain delays.

Stat of the Day: Quintin Berry finished the season with 21 steals without being caught, an AL record. Teams haven’t tended to run against Oakland (144 attempts, vs 176 against Detroit). If Q-Berry gets on, will he get a green light?

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Miguel “Triple Crown” Cabrera, who is also 2-3 career against Parker.

Today’s Central Division Champions Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry LF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Andy Dirks RF
7. Jhonny Peralta  SS
8. Alex Avila C
9. Omar Infante 2B

So it all comes down to this.  Tonight is either the last game–and the last game post–of the season,  or it’s the catapult into a deciding game 7 with our best postseason pitcher on the mound I like our chances to take this thing if we can make it to game 7, where the Rangers really don’t want to be facing the preternaturally calm Doug Fister.  They really don’t.

Whatever happens, the Tigers have managed to overcome a lot this postseason, and have pitched quite well against arguably the two best offensive teams in baseball.  The Tigers have given up a total of 16 regular inning runs in 5 games (we’ll set aside the 11th inning runs for the moment), or 3.2 per game, to a team that averaged 5.3 in the regular season.

That being said, the odds are stacked against us tonight.  We are in Arlington, where Texas loves to hit.  AccuScore gives Texas a huge advantage (64%)…the ESPN fan poll likes us even less (Texas at 72% chance to win).  And yet…

Alex Avila has this figured out.  You see, there is Max Scherzer, who is a very analytical, calm pitcher.  And then there is Mad Max.  Avila says, it’s time for Mad Max.

And–as we have known all along–it’s all about the eyes.  The analytical Max pitches with his blue eye, the intense Max with his brown eye.  Says Avila:  “He gets all jacked up and ready to go.  He gets this look in his blue eye, then his brown eye starts twitching, and it doesn’t even matter what pitch I call.  It seems like he comes out throwing great.”  Let’s hope tonight the eyes have it.

Again tonight, the way the game begins will be crucial. In his first run through against the Rangers, Max Bondermanned the first inning, then made it until the 6th without giving up a base runner.  Holland only lasted 3 innings, before being Raburned right out of the game.  On the other hand, he should certainly be rested for tonight.

In case Max goes all blue-eye tonight, warming up in the bullpen will be Rick Porcello.  Kid Rick has never come out of the bullpen yet in his fledgling career.  I’m guessing Ol’ Smokey ain’t expecting him to tonight either.

Random note of interest:  according to a DKnobler tweet, Craig Monroe is in the stands tonight wearing a Tiger shirt.  So we’ve got the C-Mo going for us.

Player of the Pre-Game:  Brandon Inge

Inge? Seriously?  Yes.  When Inge does hit, it is against lefties.  And I just have a feeling.  And besides I need something dramatic here for prediction parity with Kevin.

Today’s Naturally Cycling Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Ryan Raburn, RF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. Delmon Young, LF
6. Jhonny Peralta, SS
7. Alex Avila, C
8. Brandon Inge, 3B
9. Ramon Santiago, 2B

The Rangers have out bullpenned, out run, and out fielded the Tigers through 4 games of this series.  But that’s through 4, and this is a 7 game series.  There’s a reason for that.

None of the Tigers losses have been lopsided (tack on runs excluded), and they have had distinct opportunities to win each of those games in the late/extra innings.  They just haven’t had that hero.  But that doesn’t prohibit a hero from stepping up tonight.

Candidate #1: Justin Verlander.  At best, Verlander has been below average this post-season, at worst, he’s been…bad.  Heavy words for the 2011 AL  CY Young Winner (and perhaps MVP).  But I think we can all agree that his postseason 1.38 WHIP and 5.54 ERA is unusual, and unsustainable.  Verlander has twice been victimized by rain shortened starts, but JV would be the last guy to use that as an excuse.  JV was a strong 16-3 following a Tigers loss this season and I’ve got a feeling that he gets to a fast 17-3 tonight.

Candidate #2: Justin Verlander.  This has been the best season by a pitcher in decades, he’s just not going to go out like that, especially not fresh from the shorter fight last time out.

Candidate #3: Alex Avila.  Alex knows this may be his last chance in front of the home crowd.

Here’s my honest prediction.  The Tigers sure win this one walking away.  They have been just a hit or two away from taking each game that they lost, and I think that all of those IOUs get cashed in soon.  Verlander gives the pen the rest they need (in case you missed it, Leyland said that Benoit and Valverde were not avail tonight, and we all know that Leyland doesn’t alter from what’s written on the back of his Marlboro carton) and we get setup for 6 & 7 in Arlington.  We’ll worry about those starting Saturday morning.  The one potential wrench is the rain.  From what I can tell, it’s not currently raining at CoPa, but it could during the game.  If we were to get into another lengthy delay, the Bad Brad may get the call.  On the other side of the field, larger than life Ron Washington said that his bullpen is at “full strength.”

Quick Notes:
– Last night was Valverde’s 2nd 3+ out appearance of the season.  The first was on Monday.
– If the series goes to 7 games and Cabrera gets a hit in each game, he’ll set the all time streak to begin a career in the LCS.

1. Jackson CF
2. Raburn RF
3. Cabrera 1B
4. Martinez DH
5. Young LF
6. Peralta SS
7. Inge 3B
8. Avila C
9. Santiago 2B

L e t’s G o T i g e r s.