Ahh, Opening Day. Every team is in first place. Every fan has hopes for the post season. If at least for one day.

I remember the start of the ’07 season. Coming off a 2006 WS appearance (which looked inevitable mid-season, impossible in September, and then undeniable in October), I hoped the addition of Gary Sheffield and another year of experience for Robertson, Maroth and Verlander would put the team in prime position for a return trip. But I was nervous, very much so. The ’06 playoff run felt like a perfect storm, and honestly, I didn’t think we could repeat it.

I remember the start of last season. A recent ALCS appearance. The addition of Fielder. JV coming off of one of the greatest pitching seasons in recent history. A very weak AL Central. “Detroit Tigers” essentially etched into the AL Central Crown in March. But I was nervous, very much so. We all saw Valverde’s decline in the playoffs. We all knew that Avila and Peralta had to regress. And the regular season played out that way. Heck, the overall tone of the discussions on this site last season anxious and skeptical, at best.

It seems as if that kind of nervous anticipation has been the rule around the team for a while…but this spring has been different. It’s as if in the past the Tigers had to prove that they were a good club, but know they know it. The spotlight (or lack thereof) has been on the team. The Hunter and Sanchez signings seem like an eternity ago. For all of the expectations and accompanying pressures of a WS team, this has been a relatively quiet spring. And I think this evidences the maturation of a club into a good one. This is reflected not only in the manner in which the team carries itself, but also in how the beat writers and fans approach the team. There really hasn’t been any negativity. The Bruce Rondon demotion was warranted, and perhaps planned long ago. In other seasons, such a hole would have sunk the ship. In fact, I can’t remember a spring so devoid of position battles and controversy; but I also can’t remember a team so stacked.

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So on to the 2013 season.

’35, ’45, ’68, ’84. I find myself repeating those years at night like Arya Stark repeats her enemies; only I dream for more joyous thoughts.

Let’s have an objective discussion (as objective as a discussion on a blog dedicated solely to the Detroit Tigers can be) about the club. I’m going to avoid the obvious – Cabrera, JV, Fielder, etc. (Before I get going – there as a great article on Fangraphs a few days ago discussing Verlander’s new contract in comparison to those of Felix & Kershaw (contract coming soon), and other dominant pitchers in recent history. Jeff Sullivan ends with “Verlander Porn” which is JV making Asdrubel Cabrera look like a little leaguer. The comments are great as well.)

1) The Tigers have the best rotation in all of MLB. Or at least in the AL. Bless You Boys backed this claim up last December with a mass of sabermetric support, and I don’t think I could do it any better. Smoking Loon laid out his comparisons against the Central here. There’s a decent chance that Max Scherzer could get some Cy Young consideration this year. And it’s not ludicrous to think that Porcello can develop into a top of the rotation pitcher. But the great thing is, that even if Scherzer and Porcello simply stay within their expected range, the Tigers starters would be enough to carry this team throughout the season.

2) The Bullpen is better by subtraction. Benoit has been worth every bit of his $16.5M, and I think we all have confidence that Dotel can close. It’s arguable that Phil Coke should be given a chance to close based on his October alone. And Al Al may have the sickest stuff in the pen. If Rondon gets his act together, even better. But I don’t think we need him just yet.

3) The lineup is going to be a blast to watch day in and day out. If AJax can keep improving upon his plate discipline, 2012 will be the norm and he’ll be a superstar. Hunter and Martinez will be significant upgrades over those lineup spots last year, and history tells us that Avila and Peralta have to bounce back. But even if they don’t, this lineup is so deep that we can deal with those holes (though it would be difficult to justify Peralta anymore).

4) The defense will be better. Fielder and Cabrera are improving, and full seasons from Omar Infante, Torii Hunter (barring injury) and Andy Dirks will significantly improve the team defense.

A WS team is now better in every facet of the game, not to mention that Lamont is now on the bench.

Make sure you check out frequent commentor and numbers guru Lee Panas’ 10 predictions for Tigers Batters and Tigers Pitchers. Lee’s predicting 95 wins. I’ll go one better. A weak Central and 7 games against the Astros gets us to 96 wins, good for 2nd best record in the AL. Playoffs?…I’m hoping for one for the thumb.

49 out of 49 media members polled by ESPN picked the Tigers to win the Central, and 6 had the good sense to pick them to win the WS.  18 of them have the Angels winning the WS, and then 7 had each of the Rangers and Rays.

Curiously, only 1 person had the Tigers losing the WS.

8/8 SI writers have the Tigers winning the division, but no pennants here.

Yahoo!’s guys had a little more fun with their predictions (but all 3 picked the Tigers to win the Central).

So, what would have to go wrong which would prevent the Tigers from winning the division?

I picked up BP 2011 last week and have had an opportunity to review their outlook on the Tigers (amongst other things).  There’s no substitute for picking up the whole thing (it’s only $12.86 on Amazon now), but I wanted to pass along a few thoughts, and get your reaction.

First of all, BP is notoriously pessimistic, and their writers all seem to share the same cynicism and arrogance.  It’s funny in small doses, but gets tiresome after a while.  So while the information is amazing, and their projection algorithms are second to none, be prepared for elongated jabs at virtually everyone.

Anyway, there is a certain amount of nomenclature that is intrinsic to BP, so I’ll try not to focus too much on their less well known stats.  But in case you want/need a primer – here is a link to their glossary.

Also, win totals for superstar pitchers and HR/RBIs for superstar hitters always seem to be low, no? Does anyone know if BP calculates team win totals first, and then lets the individual stats follow that, or is it the other way around?  I’m guessing the players are forecast first.  They have probably posted an article on this in the past, if someone has seen it, please let me know.  I’m really curious to know if they have addressed before.

Team

In analyzing the 2010 season, BP gives high marks to the Granderson/Jackson deal, writing that “it was a bold and controversial move that wound up paying off in spades” citing the payroll flexibility and that “cheap talent is the life-blood of a winning organization.”  A-Jax, Scherzer, Coke & Schlereth combined for 8.9 Wins Above Replacement Player (“WARP”), while Granderson and Jackson combined for 5.9.  +3 WARP is pretty darn good.  Not to mention that Scherzer, Jackson, Coke and Schlereth combined for 26 years of team control when the deal was done (22 now), while Granderson & Jackson were at 7 (5 now) at the time.  More WARP + more player control + less price = great deal.

BP goes on to mention that the Tigers have a “core of young players who could form the base of a championship team,” starting with pitching talent.  According to BP, this is paramount because pitching talent is the most difficult asset to acquire in the open market.

BP feels that the Tigers have as good as anyone to win the Central.  Referencing 2010, the Tigers’ staff could be compared to that of San Fran (could) and BP reminds us that San Fran didn’t have Miguel Cabrera.

Hitters

I won’t go through them all, but a few highlights.  When I list slashlines, it’s Avg/OBP/Slg.

Cabrera projects to have another monster year (36 HRs 110 RBI, .948 OPS), but his projected WARP is only 4.2 (6.4 in 2010 and 4.4 in 2009).  Pujols, on the other hand, projects to an 8.1 WARP, and had a WARP of 7.8 last year, even though by most accounts Cabrera had a better offensive year (higher slugging, higher average, higher OBP). I know that Pujols is a significantly better baserunner but was he 1.4 WARP better?  And considering that Cabrera is 3 years younger, why the gross discrepancy in this year’s forecast?  Anyone at BP reading this?

Like many, BP was blown away by A-Jax’s 2010 .393 BABIP, and projects a still high but more reasonable .346 BABIP for him this year, which results in a pretty pedestrian .268 BA and .704 OPS (actually, pedestrian is generous; an OPS of .704 for a center fielder merits the bench). Jackson is going to have to develop more gap power and cut down on Ks (BP projects 152 of them, down from 170) to be a consistently good player.  .268/.325/.381

Incredibly, BP projects 478 PAs for Guillen, but also mentions that the Tigers’ hopes of Guillen making good on the final year of his $48M contract are similar to their “hope to capture and train a unicorn this spring.”  Still BP thinks Guillen will slug .771, which is great for a 2B, but not so good for a DH/corner outfielder.  .265/.346/.425

Raburn projects to a very healthy .806 OPS over 381 plate appearances. .266/.337/.469

Maggs projects to an. 814 OPS, but his low low fielding leaves him with only a 1.1 WARP. .293/.363/.451

VMart should be everything the club wants him to be; BP sees him batting .287/.357/.458, with 19 HR and a WARP of 2.9.

And because everyone wants to know, Inge projects to a reasonable 1.5 WARP, largely resulting from his fielding prowess.  .228/.309/.385.  stephen, please let us know how you feel about a corner infielder with a sub .700 OPS.

Pitchers

BP projects another huge year for JV, but only 14 wins, which says a lot about what they see behind him.  The interesting parts about their projection is that they think JV’s SO/9 will drop by 5%, yet his BB/9 will increase slightly (3%).  Regardless, he projects to a 5.5 WARP.  Highest on the team by a long shot.

BP sees Scherzer as striking out more per 9 than JV (8.8), but only projects him to 145 IPs, way less than 2009 and 2010.  BP knows quite a bit about injuries as they relate to workload, age & pitching mechanics, but I certainly hope that he gets to to 180 IPs or so. Interestingly, BP refers to Scherzer as a current “ace,” but they really do not get into the low IP projections.  Scherzer’s 2011 WARP projection is 3.6.

Porcello projects to a 2.3 WARP (which is great), but a 1.39 WHIP and 4.40 ERA.  4.4 K/9 like BP suggests just won’t do it.

BP thinks Zumaya will get into 40 games this year, but they project his BB/9 to 4.7 with a 1.45 WHIP an 4.12 ERA.

Finally, Benoit…”Because some teams don’t pay attention to the volatile nature of relief performances, the owner of a 4.47 career ERA with two good seasons in the last five years snagged a three-year, $16.5 million deal with Detroit.  That’s an expensive recipe for heartbreak.”  I still don’t like this deal.  BP projects 71 IPs with a 1.19 WHIP, 9.9 SO/9 and 2.95 ERA for 2011.  I can live with that.

BP also goes into great detail on manager analysis, I’ll save that for a separate post later this week.  Considering the polarizing nature of Ol’ Smokey, I think we’ll have plenty to discuss on that one.

Again, pick up your copy of Baseball Prospectus 2011 here.

For years I would write up season previews where I would almost automatically pick the team for 4th place. I didn’t know if they were a legitimate 4th place team, but I’d inject a little homerism to avoid last place. And then 2006 happened. The team was good. Real good. Picking them first or second in the division didn’t seem homer-ish, it seemed prudent after their World Series run. And an 88 win finish in 2007 and a blockbuster trade in the subsequent offseason further solidified those predictions. Then 2008 happened. I’m not ready to go back to picking the team in the bottom half even though that is the prevailing wisdom. I have them at 84 wins and a second place finish this year. And here’s why.

Back in January I took a look at the Tigers hitters and pitchers through the eyes of win values. It was an exercise in forecasting the Tigers season as objectively as possible. I used other people’s projections (mostly found at Fangraphs) to see how the Tigers would perform. At the time I concluded that the Tigers were an 84 win team. Of course, some things have changed since then:

• Gary Sheffield was released
• Rick Porcello made the rotation
• Zach Miner won the a spot over Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis
• The Tigers added Brandon Lyon
• Jeff Larish made the team and Ryan Raburn didn’t
• Josh Anderson was added to the mix

In the process the Tigers got a lot younger. The Tigers boasted 3 of the oldest players in the league in the form of Todd Jones/Kenny Rogers/Gary Sheffield. Now the offense is a mix of veterans and emerging stars and the rotation are veritable babies. The oldest pitcher in the season opening rotation is Armando Galarraga at the ripe old age of 27.
Continue reading The 2009 Tigers – they might not suck →

I think everyone remembers last year when the Tigers were pretty much a lock for the playoffs in the minds of many prognosticators. Sure, it was up for debate whether they’d win the American League or the World Series, but they were post season bound. Not so much this year. A number of sites and outlets and experts are doing some predicting and, well it ain’t so pretty.

Ken Rosenthal puts the Tigers in last place in the Central. But he acknowledges that anyone in the Central could win it.

Sports Illustrated picked the Tigers to finish 4th with 77 wins, 8 games back of the Twins who they think take the divison with 85 wins.

ESPN the Magazine picks the Tigers…5th in the AL Central because the rotation is questionable.

David Pinto at Baseball Musings picks the Tigers to also finish last, but he gives them a 17% chance of winning the division which is only slightly less that random!

The folks at Baseball Prospectus give us a number of projections and predictions. Joe Sheehan ranks them as the 23rd worst team in baseball, but that is still better than the White Sox and Royals. Chris Kahrl cites PECOTA and has them winning only 80 games, but that is good enough for 2nd in the Central.

Seamheads.com takes the Tigers 2nd with 84 wins, 2 games off the league pace.

Baseball Digest Daily’s panel of writers peg Detroit as the 3rd best team in the division.

And the geeks (I use that term affectionately) at Beyond the Box Score pick the Tigers anywhere from 2nd to last.

If you read through all the links though there is a pretty consistent theme. The Tigers aren’t that good, but they might not have to be to stay in the mix. As for my predictions, those are coming soon.

After re-reading my 2007 season preview, I had to admit I was a little leery of doing another one this year. It’s all just such a crap shoot. And even after digesting the most dynamic offseason in franchise history and tracking the team’s progress over six weeks of spring training, I’m still not clear on the fortunes of this team. But without further preamble and sentences started with conjunctions – The DTW Preview.
Continue reading Tigers Season Preview – 2008 Edition →

I was asked to participate in a round table discussion at Baseball Digest Daily looking at the Detroit Tigers. The group also included Ian from Bless You Boys and Peter Robbins Brown from Bugs and Cranks.

Baseball America published their MLB previews and predictions today. Unfortunately most of it is premium content. But I will let you know that they have Detroit winning it all, Miguel Cabrera taking home MVP honors, and Justin Verlander finishing as Cy Young runner up.

In other preview news, the Baseball Crank is running his Established Win Shares series again this year and started with the AL Central. The system likes the Tigers to take the division over the Indians. The first line of his analysis very succinctly sums up the Tigers outlook this year:

The Tigers are loaded with prime and veteran talent, but also have more question marks than the Riddler.