Down at the bottom of my last post, I threw out a factoid that Alan Trammell only pitched out 8 times last season because the threat of Pudge was enough to deter the running game. This is despite the fact that Rodriguez only threw out 29% of runners attempting to steal. Pudge’s low success rate gunning down runners led to some great discussion, and it really deserves a closer look.

There were several possible explanations for Rodriguez’s stuggles last year. Luke raised the possiblity that only the best basestealers are running on Pudge because of his reputation. Therefore, they would be expected to have a better success rate. Similarly, managers may be more selective in picking their spots and thus increasing their chances. I’m not sure if either of these concepts are true or not, but it seems reasonable that they could have contributed.

Jason attributes Pudge’s slide more to deterioration of skills. He posted the following data showing Pudge’s downward trend the last few seasons

I’m most inclined to agree with Jason. The last 3 years have shown a sharp decline from where he was. Last year I’m sure he was hindered by his hip flexor injury. There were several times he didn’t come out of his crouch to try and throw runners out, and even his arm can’t overcome that. Maybe the new, not so pudgy Pudge will regain some quickness behind the plate.

In the meantime, despite playing in a division full of managers who like to run, he had the lowest attempts against per nine of any regular catcher in the AL. The table below shows innings caught, stolen base attempts (SBA), attempts per 9 innings, pitcher caught stealing (PCS), and caught stealing percentage for the starting catchers in the AL. I threw Brandon Inge in there as well for illustrative purposes.

NAME                  INN   SBA  SBA/9In  PCS   CS%

Ivan Rodriguez,Det    1051   59    0.51     3  0.29

Miguel Olivo,CWS/Sea  760.1  49    0.58     6  0.26

Toby Hall,TB         1011.1  67    0.60     6  0.28

Henry Blanco,Min      872.1  61    0.63     5  0.45

Rod Barajas,Tex       908.2  64    0.63     6  0.28

Dan Wilson,Sea        827.1  66    0.72     4  0.29

Jorge Posada,NYY     1102.1  92    0.75     2  0.26

Damian Miller,Oak     963.2  81    0.76    17  0.28

Javy Lopez,Bal       1092.1  94    0.77     6  0.23

Bengie Molina,Ana     762    69    0.81     1  0.25

Jason Varitek,Bos    1062.2 100    0.85     3  0.21

Gregg Zaun,Tor        789    83    0.95     2  0.26

Victor Martinez,Cle  1108   119    0.97     4  0.23
     


Brandon Inge, Det    312.2   51    1.47     3  0.38

I was surprised to see that Pudge’s 29% is acutally still among the best in the league, second only to Henry Blanco. You’ll also probably notice that overall those CS rates seem lower than you would expect. The key here is that typically, CS rates show all baserunners who are caught stealing while the catcher is behind the plate. Pitcher caught stealing is listed in the Bill James Handbook. It is what happens when a pitcher makes a move over to first, and gets the guy who took off too soon and is thrown out at second. It is recorded as a caught stealing, even though the catcher wasn’t involved. When you take those out of the CS rate, you see much lower numbers.

While another possible explanation for Pudge’s “dropoff” was the Tigers young staff that couldn’t hold runners, the opposite is probably true. While Jeremy Bonderman and Jason Johnson are bad at holding runners, Rodriguez may have benefitted from having 3 lefties in the rotation for half of the year.

So while Pudge’s demise may be exaggerated, his normal caught stealing rates are still on the decline, and he probably shouldn’t be the most feared arm in the AL anymore. On the other hand, former back-up catcher Brandon Inge had a terrific caught stealing rate, and yet it stopped absolutely nobody from trying to run on him.

Other Notes:
-Hardball Times takes a look at the Doyle Alexander/John Smoltz trade from 1987. While typically referred to as one of the most lopsided deals, it managed to help both teams accomlish what they were looking for. Alexander got the Tigers to the playoffs, and Smoltz became a fixture in Atlanta.
-The battle for the last bullpen spot is heating up, and the loser probably won’t remain a Tiger. Gary Knotts and Franklyn German are both out of options, and both competing for the last spot on the pitching staff. Trammell has said several times he only plans on keeping 11 pitchers. With the 5 guys in the rotation set, and Urbina/Pericval/Farnsworth/Walker/Rodney (if healthy) already slotted for relief there is only one spot left. Chances are neither would clear waivers so the Tigers risk losing one of them.