Category Archives: Spring Training

2013 Season, Roster Management, Spring Training

2013 Roster Is Set

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STARTERS: C Avila, 1B Fielder, 2B Infante, SS Peralta, 3B Cabrera, LF Dirks, CF Jackson, RF Hunter, DH Martinez.

BENCH: C Pena, IF Santiago, IF/OF Kelly, IF/OF Tuiasosopo.

ROTATION: Verlander, Sanchez, Fister, Scherzer, Porcello, RHPs all (the precise order remains undisclosed as far as I know).

BULLPEN: RHPs Dotel, Benoit, Alburquerque, Villareal; LHPs Coke, Downs, Smyly.

To the delight of some and the dismay of others, Quintin Berry was optioned to Toledo and Don Kelly made the team. In news that surprised no one, Bruce Rondon, Luis Marte, and Danny Worth were also sent to Toledo. There’s still a chance Ramon Santiago gets traded soon, but it’s a very slim chance indeed. That slimness is diminished still further by the question: Traded for what and who, exactly? Prospects? A draft pick? The Tigers are set. Until further notice.

The lame duck session of spring training has commenced. Only 2 Grapefruit League games remain to be played. (The Tigers can still get to 20 wins. Woo-hoo!) If there’s anything left to look for or at in them, please tell us what it is. I’m really, really tired of those Jaguar commercials. Is that going to go on all season? (Sorry. I guess that was another Jaguar commercial.)

I’m entirely pleased with the pitching staff selections. (Really happy to see Justin Verlander make the team.) I’m somewhat less than pleased by half of the bench, but must grant that the odds of Kelly hitting respectably are greater than those of Matt Tuiasosopo (one of “my” candidates and an even better feel-good story than Kelly ever was) continuing to rake in limited ABs, not to mention proving in the first place that he can hit MLB pitching when it counts.

It will be “closer by committee” to begin the season, apparently. Think that’s gonna last long? It could, you know, although I don’t think Jim Leyland would be happy with it.

What about the order of the starting rotation? Is that significant to you? Care to speculate?

Here’s a fun one: Guess the first 10 roster moves of the season. Including DL stints. As I go over the more likely DL, sent down, and called up scenarios, the good news is that I can’t think of a single DFA candidate. I suppose that if Santiago had an unfathomably horrid first couple months, he might be designated for assignment, but that is even less likely than a trade.

Are the Detroit Tigers ready? I think the Detroit Tigers are ready. The question is, is the rest of MLB ready for them? Right?

2013 Season, Roster Management, Spring Training

Late Spring Roundup

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Lots of news over the past 4-5 days. You’re already aware of these items, most likely, but here’s a little roundup to “put them in the paper,” so to speak:

ROSTER MOVES: IF Jeff Kobernus was sent back to the Nationals. The Tigers retained the rights to Rule 5 LHP Kyle Lobstein by trading C Curt Casali to the Rays for them. IF/OF Matt Tuiasosopo has made the team and claimed a bench spot. Today, RHP Luke Putkonen was optioned to Toledo, while RHP Jose Alvarez, C Brad Davis, and 3B Kevin Russo were assigned to minor league camp, and OF Avisail Garcia was placed on the 15-day DL retroactively (heel contusion that he suffered March 16). The Tigers also released a boatload of minor league players, 20 to be exact.

More of a roster decision than a roster move, but Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly will both be on the pitching staff, Porcello in the rotation and Smyly in the pen.

It looks like there’s a decision to be made on Don Kelly (RHP Shawn Hill will likely be sent out to Toledo soon) and then 3 spots left to trim to 25. On the bubble, most likely, are pitchers Bruce Rondon, Darin Downs, and Luis Marte, and position players Danny Worth, Quintin Berry, and Ramon Santiago. One of the former and two of the latter (barring Kelly’s return) should head north with the team.

DON KELLY: But wait – there’s news on Mr. Don. He’s not opting out. This isn’t bad news, regardless of your position on Kelly.

JV: The Justin Verlander contract extension talks deadline is nearly upon us.

VIRGIL TRUCKS 1917-2013: Not only two no-hitters, but…

EX-TIGERS: Brandon Inge (Pirates) and Ryan Raburn (Indians) will both start the season on MLB teams, and the Tigers could end up seeing quite a bit of both of them.

ANDY DIRKS has been out of the starting lineup the last couple games, just a “precautionary measure” (related to the knee contusion Dirks suffered in the March 19 LF wall collision) according to Jim Leyland.

And in Grapefruit League action the past couple days, a little road trip resulted in a win over the Marlins and a loss to the Braves. I’ll be back with some items of note from those games. If you watched them, chime in. It’s still spring training, they’re still exhibition games, but they’re getting a bit more momentous now (aren’t they?) with less than a week to go until you know what.

TIGERS 6, MARLINS 3: The Miami Marlins don’t feature the most imposing lineup, but still, Porcello looked good, Brayan Villareal was good Villareal (three groundouts showing that the benefit of well-thrown heat doesn’t always show up in the K column), and Putkonen did a nice job getting out of the first and third, no outs trouble he got himself into in the 9th… The first pitch curve Porcello threw to Wilson Alvarez in the 3rd was really something to see (backed Alvarez out of the box and landed for a strike)… Rob Brantly’s home run was pretty much all to his credit, not a bad pitch by Porcello, though maybe not one he’ll throw Brantly again… The foul pop in the 3rd that Miguel Cabrera couldn’t find in the sun: Shouldn’t someone have been over there with him – Avila, maybe? It was up there long enough. Oh well. Maybe no one saw it. And speaking of “up there,” Cabrera’s RBI double in the 1st wasn’t your typical Cabrera double. Giancarlo Stanton must have been positioned in LF for that to drop and bounce over the wall… Brayan Pena made some nice plays at first, and the Tigers defense was nice and crisp overall. Coolest was in the 4th, when Casey Kotchman’s sharp grounder was deflected by a diving Pena to (or near) Omar Infante, who found it and threw in time to Porcello racing over to cover 1B… Most of the early 4-run damage the Tigers did was from RHBs off a RHP who wasn’t coming inside to them… Steven Moya’s 6th inning sliding catch in RF: That’s one graceful 6’7″ guy. I like this kid. Latest prediction: In the Tigers outfield by 2015. If he stays healthy… Nice inning of (sort of wild) small ball in the Tigers 2-run 7th. Kotchman had Russo nailed at the plate, but Brantly was cautious and Russo was tricky with hesitation and a good evasive slide. We won’t mention Moya getting caught in a rundown between 3rd and home to end the inning.

BRAVES 6, TIGERS 5: Not on MLB.TV. Oh well. The bullpen let this one get away after one rally and another. Hill, Rondon, Phil Coke, all good. Villareal one HR pitch away from being OK, I guess. Octavio Dotel was making up for WBC lost time and decided to save some by having one great outing and one flameout, both in the same inning. Don Kelly 4 for 4! Trade value soaring. All the bench contenders are now batting over .300.

2013 Season, Game Post, Spring Training

Tigers 9, Mets 4

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Doug Fister turned in another rather belabored start (88 pitches in 4.2 and not a great strike ratio) but avoided getting hammered, and Tigers hitters – the A-team regular season lineup – were able to solve the Mets’s talented young righty Matt Harvey just enough to keep Fister ahead. The Tigers jumped all over Brandon Lyon in the 7th, to the tune of 5 runs, putting the game out of reach. There was a constant strong wind blowing out to right at Tradition Field in Port St. Lucie that had some effect on the game, but not in terms of home runs, surprisingly enough, with Don Kelly’s shot off Lyon the one and only. Some games elsewhere in central Florida were stopped on account of even stronger winds. The Tigers improved to 17-11 in the Grapefruit League with the 9-4 victory, their third straight win, while the Mets fell to 12-12.

1ST INNING: The much-ballyhooed Harvey (10.6 K/9 in his 2012 rookie season) humbled the top of Detroit’s order right away, with 3 consecutive punch-outs, including a called third strike on Miguel Cabrera. Fister issued a leadoff walk to New York’s weak-hitting Kirk Nieuwenhuis, who made it as far as third base but no further. Cabrera made a nifty play on the good sacrifice bunt by Justin Turner, and Prince Fielder made a nice recovery on a bad hop grounder that he bobbled but stayed in front of.

2ND INNING: The Tigers began to make contact – hard contact – and Harvey struggled with his control, issuing two consecutive walks and handing Omar Infante a bases-loaded RBI on one of them. Mets CF Matt den Dekker limited the inning’s damage considerably by running down Victor Martinez’s shot to deep right-center in Quintin Berry-esque fashion (so said because AJax makes it look easier). Detroit was forced to settle for one run when Austin Jackson popped out to the catcher with the bases still loaded. Fister sandwiched alternating walks – another leadoff one – and strikeouts to get into trouble for the first time, and then two wild pitches followed to first advance the runners and then score the tying run. The first WP was really a case of Alex Avila phoning it in as catcher, while the second appeared to be a matter of signals getting crossed, though again Avila’s effort was questionable (and Fister didn’t even attempt to cover home plate for some reason).

3RD INNING: Torii Hunter reached second on 2B Turner’s throwing error, and a weak but productive at bat by Cabrera advanced him to 3B. Fielder’s broken-bat single plated Hunter to make it 2-1, but Martinez grounded into a DP to kill what was shaping up to be a nice “make them pay” inning. Fister was touched with a couple hard liners by Turner and Ike Davis that tied the score at 2, but bailed himself out by inducing a Marlon Byrd 6-4-3 DP.

4TH INNING: Detroit came up with a pair of two-out runs to recapture the lead, staying out of the DP nicely with a stolen base from Jhonny Peralta. Infante’s gap shot into right-center was misjudged by a diving and missing den Dekker into an RBI triple. Harvey had gotten away with a mistake pitch in Jackson’s first AB, but not this time, as Jackson scorched a 2-0 fastball to left for a double and the 4-2 lead. Fister gave up a hard single and then erased the Mets with a couple grounders.

5TH INNING: Cabrera, not having much of a day at the plate, reached nonetheless on SS Omar Quintanilla’s error. Martinez ended the inning with another GIDP. One might ask whether the Tigers, with pinch runner (for Cabrera) Danny Worth on 1B, couldn’t have tried harder to stay out of the DP here. After two quick outs, Fister began to hurry his pace. Never a good sign, whether it’s between pitches or in the delivery itself. A walk and a single followed, and Fister’s day was done. Darin Downs came in with men on first and third. Skating on thin ice, as is his wont, Downs ran the count to 3-1 on LHB Davis before getting a hard hit ball straight at Jackson in CF for the out.

6TH INNING: Peralta drew a walk from Bobby Parnell after falling behind 0-2, but Avila followed with an inning-ending GIDP. Al Alburquerque, after getting burned by a first-pitch double by Byrd, struck out the side. Sub RF Berry’s fleet pursuit to the RF line on the Byrd double probably saved a base.

7TH (KEY) INNING: The new Mets battery of Lyon and Landon Powell came on, and the Tigers proceeded to rock Lyon without delay. Infante hit a liner that went untouched past 3B Brandon Hicks – a bad-effort error that wasn’t scored that way – and hustled it into a double. Jackson followed with a wind-blown drive to deep CF, and CF den Dekker must have misjudged where the wall was, leaping for the ball, gloving and dropping it, before coming down in a heap upon his wrist (he had to leave the game). Jackson, meanwhile, stood on 3B with an RBI triple. Berry slapped an RBI single to right-center. Sub 3B Worth slammed a pitch into the left-center gap that was cut off nicely by LF Andrew Brown, and basepath hesitation by Berry would have had him thrown out at home but for C Powell’s mishandled catch of the relay throw. As it was, Worth was on second with a double, and the score was 7-2 Tigers. Kelly followed on the very next pitch from Lyon with a two-run homer to right-center. The wind might have helped a bit, but it was a very well-hit ball and something of a reminder to the Kelly naysayers (like me). It took a bang-bang (or more accurately, bang-bloop, with expert timing on the latter) 1B Davis-P Lyon play to get Martinez for the first out of the inning (hard to see the Tigers turning that one). Sub LF Matt Tuiasosopo finished Lyon’s day with a near-homer CF double off the wall. Sub SS Ramon Santiago greeted Scott Atchison with a single, but the Tigers threat ended with runners at the corners on weak outs by sub C Brayan Pena and Infante (10th batter of the inning). Jose Alvarez pitched a 1-2-3 inning in the bottom half.

8TH INNING: Atchison, also rather tough on the Tigers while with the Red Sox, retired the side on strikes. In the bottom half, Alvarez’s fastball started looking flat and the Mets began to hit him hard. Turner, Tigers ST nemesis, whacked a double after falling behind 0-2. Sub RF Cory Vaughan singled in Turner, and sub SS Matt Reynolds doubled to left to narrow the Tigers lead to 9-4 before Luis Marte came in to strike out Hicks for the third out. Tuiasosopo booted the LF double, but no damage done – it was an RBI double one way or the other.

9TH INNING: The Mets sent out minor league southpaw Jack Leathersich, who struggled with his control and possibly his nerves as well but who also recovered nicely. The Tigers loaded the bases on two walks and a Santiago single, but for the second time in two innings two weak outs by Pena and Infante ended the threat. Marte pitched what could be a called a Jose Valverde (of old) 9th, three well-hit but harmless outs, all to RF Berry, who seemed a bit shallow and out of position on the first one, considering the strength of the wind out to right. Berry did make a fun show out of his backpedaling, as he seems to do with most of his putouts.

 

2013 Season, Spring Training

Underrating the Overcats

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I can’t promise that it’s not just a pleasant dream and that you won’t soon wake up still in 2003 (or the right-side-up version of the above), but for at least the second year in a row the Detroit Tigers aren’t merely contenders, but favorites. In several categories. A very strong team on paper, even stronger than they were going into 2012. Yet they struggled for most of 2012. Even though poor defense was the most persistent leaky faucet, there was no easily identifiable single culprit for the struggles. The team just wasn’t firing on all cylinders for much of the season, and even in the heady days of September and October, it was mostly a case of starting pitching carrying the team on its shoulders, not everything suddenly coming together. All this after so much promise. Were the 2012 Tigers overrated? Maybe a little. Are the 2013 Tigers?

I’m very optimistic about 2013. Great offseason. The team is clearly better for it. Spring has been good. But I’m going to play the role of doubter, complainer, and whiner here. Gonna find some fault and invent more if I have to.

Let’s get negative:

Is the Tigers bullpen overrated? When I think of good bullpens, I think more of Tigers opponents, teams that have those three guys you just dread, and that’s with the Tigers lineups of the past few years. A good bullpen gives you the option of running out a certain 3 pitchers every other day and having a high level of confidence that not of them is going to blow up. (A great bullpen would give you another variation or two on that 3-pitcher lineup.) Who are those 3 Tigers relievers? Do they even have them? I’m not so sure. Yeah, those sub-2.00 ERAs and wonderful K/9s look good on paper. They don’t necessarily add up to a reliable shutdown crew. Key word: Reliable. Not “passable, brilliant, oops,” but “good. good, good.” And speaking of blowing up, it was on display in the recent 12-10 loss to the Nationals.

Is Brayan Pena going to be a defensive liability (I’m basing this unfairly on one early spring game where he had some rubber arm going on a couple successful stolen base attempts against him) and perhaps a liability overall, and was it such a good idea to let Gerald Laird go, and is Jim Leyland going to run Alex Avila into the ground at C again? (Having it both ways with my worrying.) The truth is that I haven’t seen enough of Pena this spring or really zeroed in on him enough to form much of an opinion. But he has looked kind of… sluggish. Not as in “slugging,” though I did see him hit a home run.

The Tigers lineup is seen as solid top to bottom, but is it really? Look at 7-9. Here “solid” seems to rest upon the assumption that both Avila and Jhonny Peralta are intrinsically better than they showed in 2012 and are due to bounce back. But maybe not, and what if Omar Infante’s moribund batting line for the Tigers in 64 games last year proves more rule than exception this season?

The only thing I can find to worry about in the outfield is Andy Dirks’s health and the possibility that Jim Leyland might subject us to long stretches of Jeff Kobernus or Don Kelly in his stead (as opposed to calling up Avisail Garcia or at the very least using the capable but presently sore-kneed Quintin Berry). This despite 3 injured OFs at the moment (Garcia, Dirks, Berry). The joy of having Torii Hunter and Austin Jackson, no doubt.

Despite the return of Prince “2013 AL MVP” Fielder and the addition of Hunter, there’s still a lot riding on the continued health of Victor Martinez. The bats are there for DH by committee, but the subtraction still comes in when you figure who replaces the replacements. There’s really nothing for it, because you can’t just keep a spare Victor Martinez on the bench. So it’s just a worry. Although Garcia and (according to some) maybe even Nick Castellanos could be aces in the hole here (my own opinion is that Castellanos isn’t quite that close to being ready for the majors, but maybe I’ve just seen all the wrong ST games).

Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, and Rick Porcello all have a history of being slow starters. Just sayin’.

OK, that’s all the negativity I can muster at the moment.

In recent news, the Tigers have lost 3 of their last 5 and are now 14-11 in Grapefruit League play. 3 games out and mired in 4th place! In the March 16 shutout of the Cardinals, Shawn Hill had a good start, Bruce Rondon and the rest of the bullpen had good outings, Garcia suffered a heel contusion, Matt Tuiasosopo went 2 for 4 with a HR, and the Tigers were caught stealing 3 times. March 17 against the Nationals, Miguel Cabrera and Infante were back from the WBC, Drew Smyly had his first rough outing of the spring and Danny Worth committed 2 errors, and the Tigers rallied from a 7-1 deficit to take a 9-8 lead, only to have an 8th-inning meltdown from Al Alburquerque cost them the game. Scherzer had a good 5-inning start in the 5-1 win over the Nationals March 18, while the bullpen put on the perfect good bullpen show (3 guys, 4 innings, no runs, 6 strikeouts) and Tigers hitters beat up on Rafael Soriano in the 7th to win it. Losing 11-5 against the Rays March 19, Doug Fister and Kyle Lobstein got hammered, but Fister didn’t actually look as bad as his line suggests, though he often pitched himself out of good counts. Though the damage was done, another good showing by the bullpen (aside from Lobstein) followed. Dirks hurt his knee in a collision with the LF wall. It was fun to see the lower-level minor leaguers late in the game, especially little guy Devon Travis belting a 2-run homer. Last night against the Astros, Justin Verlander went 5 2/3 but allowed an uncharacteristic 3 home runs, Alburquerque couldn’t keep it close, and Tigers bats couldn’t get much going in the 7-2 loss. Berry in LF made yet another great catch. How can anyone not want this guy as the 4th OF?

On Tuesday the Tigers sent 8 players to the minors, most notably LHP Duane Below, but also RHP Jorge Ortega, C Bryan Holaday, IF Hernan Perez, RHP Trevor Bell, IF Argenis Diaz, OF Nick Castellanos, and OF Tyler Collins.

Jason Beck’s guess at a Tigers bench of Ramon Santiago, Kobernus, and Kelly is truly one that I hope proves incorrect. Maybe the Nationals will take Santiago in exchange for Kobernus, who could then be sent to Toledo. Maybe he’s worth holding onto. I don’t see that he’s earned a spot on the opening day roster, myself. It’s clear enough that Lobstein isn’t making the pitching staff, but it’s actually more plausible to me that the Tigers would make a deal to hold onto him in the minors. I see some promise there, even in an outing such as the last one against the Rays. Plus, well, he’s a starting pitcher, and a lefty at that.

Octavio Dotel is back from the WBC.

And finally, gazing into one of my clouded and cracked crystal balls, none of them reliable, in one I see a future where Steven Moya and Tyler Collins are starting outfielders for the Tigers, while Garcia and Castellanos have been traded.

2013 Season, Spring Training

The Ides Of March

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The Ides of Boesch is a day on the Roman Calendar corresponding with March 13, a date which has become notorious for Detroit Tigers spring transactions, as illustrated in the prophetic 1798 painting The Unconditional Release of Brennan.

Will the Yankees be able to fix Brennan Boesch? Maybe. But let no one later claim that the Tigers “let him get away,” whatever happens down the road. His time in Detroit was clearly up. Crowded outfield and two more prospects knocking at the door. The release was puzzling at first in that, apparently, no teams had been willing to trade for Boesch, but Dave Dombrowski’s words “I have tried to trade his contract at various times here throughout the spring” made it clear what the obstacle to a deal was.

There have been no other surprising roster moves, just the players assigned to the minors that you knew would be, with many more such moves to follow shortly. The lingering suspense regarding the bench and rounding out the bullpen may not be and probably won’t be resolved for another two weeks.

Decipher this one:

QUOTE: Manager Jim Leyland was asked Friday if it were possible both [Quintin Berry and Jeff Kobernus] might make the team.

“Possible,” Leyland answered. “A longshot, but possible.”

“The two questions you have to ask are: Which guy gives us the best chance to win a game? And which scenario gives us the best chance to win games? One is singular and one is plural,” Leyland added. “That’s what you have to figure out. That comes into play when you’re figuring out your roster. Obviously, you want to win games. Plural. … We’re pretty well set, but there are a couple things at the end that are going to be a little hairy. A manager knows he’s going to break a couple hearts before this is over.” END QUOTE

Bruce Rondon is really good. (And was it not I who just poked fun at Jim Leyland for stating the obvious?) A pitcher, not merely a thrower. He sure looks ready or very close to it. The question is: Would you have him start the season in Toledo anyway, for his own good? Do the Tigers, chock full of bullpen right now, really need him right away? But the answer might be: Why wait? Nice sliders against the Mets. I don’t know about you, but I’m getting tired of the speed thing already. I try to ignore it and concentrate on the location and movement of the pitches, which of course I’d be doing anyway. You can’t readily see speed from the standard camera angle, anyway, aside from what you can read from batter reaction. Or at least I can’t.

It was heartening to see, March 14 against the Mets, two fine defensive plays in a row behind Casey Crosby, first the great catch by Berry and then the nice work of Omar Infante/Matt Tuiasosopo. (For what it’s worth, the Tigers have committed only 11 errors in 21 ST games so far, as opposed to 36 in 28 games or so last spring.) It was also amusing that the Mets broadcasters picked up on the one Valverde-ism in Rondon’s pitching ritual, which I noticed (with some dismay) the first time I saw him this spring.

Who’s your favorite non-Tigers TV broadcast team? Of the ones I’ve encountered so far this spring, I liked Gary Cohen and Ron Darling of the Mets (SNY). I have greater respect for guys that aren’t total homers, who display some depth of knowledge about the opposing team and players and devote some time to discussing them. I think that this can be said of FSD’s Mario Impemba and Rod Allen – what’s your opinion?

It’s good to have a winning record any time of year, isn’t it? The Tigers have now surged to a 12-8 Grapefruit League record (yes, I just like the term “Grapefruit League” and will work it in every chance I get), which makes me feel better than 8-12 would. Statistical standouts on the pitching side include Al Alburquerque, Drew Smyly, Joaquin Benoit, and Brayan Villareal, but nothing tops Rick Porcello’s 18 K in 18 IP with no BB and a 0.78 WHIP. Darin Downs seems to be skating on thin ice every time I see him pitch, and yet he’s compiled a pretty immaculate line. The hitters tearing it up are Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Tyler Collins, Nick Castellanos, Don Kelly (5 of 8 hits for extra bases), and – to an extent – Kevin Russo (38% K rate is ouch).

Around the horn on the recently happened and upcoming: Jhonny had some chowder, Prince had a flat tire, Ramon hit a grand slam off of Roy Halladay, Tuiasosopo (no slouch with the Ks himself at ~33%) hit the loudest home run of spring into a gusting wind, Doug Fister finally pitched more like Doug Fister, Justin hurt Joey but can’t be held accountable for Joey not wearing a cup, prospect Stephen Moya impressed against Florida Southern, Casey Crosby was optioned to Toledo as expected, and minor league RHP Cesar Carrillo (AA Erie) has been suspended 100 games without pay for drug policy violations, as illustrated in the prophetic 1798 painting The Suspension of Cesar. Verlander will be pitching for the Toledo Mud Hens later today. Octavio Dotel remains in the WBC. The Tigers will play the Washington Nationals three times over the upcoming week.

Finally, what about this new all-season interleague play deal? Sensible? Good? Bad? Can much be made of the Tigers ending the regular season deprived of the DH for the last 3 games?  I mean, it’s only the Marlins.

And tell me everything you know about Jose Alvarez, the mystery man with 3 saves in ST. In the Grapefruit League, I mean.

2013 Season, Roster Management, Spring Training

How Time Flies

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The Detroit Tigers are 8-7 in Grapefruit League play as of this writing and are having a rather good spring overall, statistically speaking. A few injuries and a few WBC excused absences are the only flies in the ointment at this point. We’re getting to the point where Spring Training starts to get interesting, or as interesting as it can get for a team that came in with the starting lineup settled and the pitching staff largely so. So what’s left to decide?

Closer: I think it was decided as far back as last November that the Tigers would not be looking to the outside for a closer. Current rumors to the contrary are bizarre (which doesn’t rule out the possibility that they’re true.) But as I see it, whatever Bruce Rondon does or does not do over the next few weeks, the most that ST may decide is the prospective closer. (If you saw Al Alburquerque’s inning against the Astros March 4, you might have seen that prospective closer already.) The issue will not be settled until April. Or May. Or June. The good news is that the Tigers have bullpen talent to spare and multiple candidates. I think the “closer question” is really an overhyped non-issue at this time. It must top the list of Jim Leyland’s least favorite day in and day out subjects to address. If the bullpen lives up to expectations, a closer or a series of them will emerge. If the bullpen tanks, then it tanks, though “lack of a closer” might persist as a popular (and false) diagnosis.

Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly: Both doing quite well. Guess what? I think they’re both on the team Opening Day. It should take an offer the Tigers absolutely can’t refuse to pry either of them away in trade. Elvis Andrus is the only such offer I can think of. Are the Rangers that desperate? Flip a coin three times, and if it comes up heads each time, the answer is yes.

The bench: Brayan Pena is a given. It would appear that the three spots left must be for Infield Guy, Outfield Guy, and Versatility Guy. Jeff Kobernus (Rule 5 status) is obviously being given every opportunity to be Versatility Guy and seems to be taking advantage of it. Kobernus has the inside track, but depth in utility is not a bad thing, and I’ve gotten some positive impressions from Kevin Russo, Don Kelly, and Matt Tuiasosopo, Toledo-bound as they may be. I would have said that Outfield Guy was Quintin Berry’s job to lose, but his knee problems are complicating things. This might open the door for Brennan Boesch, whom I might otherwise say just doesn’t fit. But I still think Boesch gets traded, and if things gang a-gley for Berry, Avisail Garcia is Outfield Guy, and the steady ABs at Toledo thing is out the window. Infield Guy is between Ramon Santiago and Danny Worth. I feel that Worth is earning that bench spot, and Santiago’s injury has done nothing to help his own cause, but we all know Leyland’s leanings regarding proven (and in some cases unproven) veterans, so there’s a good chance we’re in for at least half a season of a declining Santiago.

The bullpen: Smyly/Porcello, Octavio Dotel, Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke, Alburquerque. Two spots left, no? The front-runners to fill them appear to be Rondon, Brayan Villareal, Darin Downs, and Duane Below. Below is getting hit hard, and I think Rondon ought to start the season in Toledo, so there you have my slim-chance-of-accuracy guesses. I’ve heard the idea floated of turning Luke Putkonen and Below back into starters, and it sounds like a good one when you consider that the Tigers’ organizational starting pitching depth appears to consist of Casey Crosby and… um, well… Casey Crosby.

Nick Castellanos’s stance and swing remind me of Delmon Young. Not a criticism, just an observation. He’s putting up good numbers, and clearly the Tigers want his bat above all else, but my does he look ungainly in LF. I haven’t seen him play 3B – chime in if you have – but I have to wonder whether the Tigers are really doing him or themselves a favor by pushing Castellanos to the outfield. It occurs to me that an apprenticeship at the corner infield positions at some point from 2013-2015 might have been another possibility to consider. It’s not a certainty that Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder will be asked to slide over to DH in 2015 or 2016 (would they even be willing?), but it is possible. And there’s your open door for Castellanos the non-outfielder.

I’m looking forward to the return of the WBC-playing Tigers. So obviously I’m glad Venezuela has been eliminated, though it looks like the Dominican Republic might be at it for a while yet. Watched WBC highlights for the first time – pretty neat, pretty intense. How ’bout that Canada-Mexico game? If the MLB All-Star Game was played with such intensity, it might be worth paying attention to. That WS home field advantage thing isn’t really a motivator. Maybe if the losing team’s players had to sit out the rest of the season…. Ha ha. Blood sport!

If anyone’s due for a bounceback season, it’s newly slim and trim Jhonny Peralta. However, the stats so far suggest nothing of the kind. But it’s early. Right?

Homework assignment: Those injuries! They’re happening already. Consider some of the more devastating scenarios that would involve two players being on the DL simultaneously for weeks or months and how you see the Tigers dealing with it. Worst cases? Justin Verlander and Doug Fister? Cabrera and Fielder? How about the most likely cases? Austin Jackson and Andy Dirks? Alex Avila and Victor Martinez? Fister and Max Scherzer? Alburquerque and Villareal? I’m not suggesting you create a spreadsheet to cover all the possibilities like someone weirdly obsessed with Tigers baseball, but doing so might give you a more practical understanding of the Tigers’ organizational depth.

 

2013 Season, Spring Training, Trade Rumors

Rick Porcello Trade Talks

53 Comments

According to ESPN (my Scorecenter App alert, to be precise) – the Rangers have inquired about Rick Porcello.

This makes sense to me for a number of reasons.

1) The Rangers just lost Martin Perez for several months with a fractured forearm. Perez was slated to be their #5. This is a team who has already shelved Neftali Feliz and Colby Lewis to begin the season.

2) As we’ve discussed on here before, Rick Porcello’s peripherals were actually pretty good last year- FIP under 4, increased velocity, and an increased K rate, to name a few. Jon Daniels is just the kind of GM that would value that.

3) Porcello’s fighting for a spot on maybe the deepest rotation in the AL, and the Tigers could use a lefty (Smyly) in the rotation.

Now, the Rangers have one of the best farm systems in the league, and they are also desperately trying to figure out what to do with Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar. They are also frustrated with Ian Kinsler and have discussed moving him to the OF. I doubt we’ll hear Andrus or Profar mentioned…but what about Porcello, Castellanos and Rondon for Andrus and Kinsler?

I’ll keep you guys posted on what I hear down here.

2013 Season, Players, Spring Training

Don’t Ask Dotel (about Miguel Cabrera)

26 Comments

Is there trouble brewing in the clubhouse? Or is there nothing else to talk about?

The fallout from the Yahoo article I posted on Wednesday has been at least measurable, if not significant. Of course, Dotel clumsily backtracked yesterday (think Delmon Young in LF) and apologized to Miggy,

So what do you guys think?

I think that there’s a little something to this. Cabrera isn’t the most mature player out there (White Sox series in ’09 and the DUI come to mind), so perhaps someone calling him out like this will help him to grow up a bit. I have no idea what went on in the locker room last October, but SF wasn’t sweep the Tigers good. There had to be some chaos going on in the clubhouse.

All in all, I think this is a good thing. If the Tigers hadn’t won the AL Pennant, this wouldn’t be national news. It’s kind of nice to be in the spotlight.

First ST game on MLB.tv tomorrow!

2013 Season, Spring Training

Happy 30th, JV.

5 Comments

Here’s a video card! (from MLive)

Not a whole lot going on, other then games of pepper and intrasquad scrimmages, so here are a few links to keep you going until Rondon gets drilled and TSE demands that we resign Valverde for a logical 1 year salary which is not irrationally based on his positive contributions during the acceptable part of his season last year.

– Can Cabrera get any better? I agree with Octavio Dotel that he could be a better leader. This is the first I’ve heard of a player’s only being called for but ignored after game 2 of the WS. In retrospect, it would have been nice.

– To that end, do you guys remember when we were in the WS? Seems unbelievable considering the disappointment and uncertainty regarding the team and skipper all season long. I mean, we were at it all season on the DTW. Sure as heck did make for a lot of fun.

– John Lowe makes an interesting case for why Dirksie (or is it “Dirksy”? – I heard Avila say that on MLB radio last night) could win a batting title.

– 8:1 odds to win the WS…pretty salty. Tor at 7:1.  BP has Detroit running away with the division. As do I. Also on BP – the Tigers’ depth chart is free of charge (along with San Fran). Perk of winning the pennant. I usually subscribe to BP each year, the content is worth it.

2013 Season, Spring Training

Catching Up

30 Comments

Hello Friends –

This PED stuff is really interesting to me. My reaction to the latest reports on Biogenesis was a far cry from the disappointment that I had to similar reports in the (way) past. At this point in time, I’m surprised there weren’t more people on the list. Or any Tigers for that matter (well, none on the big league club, prospect Cesar Carillo was linked). If you were to take a pure economic look at using PEDs (laced with tons of assumptions, but hey, I said “economic”) I think the risk/reward test isn’t so easy. Let’s take a look at Melky Cabrera. Here’s his WAR and OPS+ in each full season:

Year WAR (B-R) OPS+
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012		 2.7
1.2
.2
.9
-.5
4.1
4.7*		 95
88
68
93
83
121
158

* suspended for 50 games.

Here’s the same table with an additional column.

Year WAR (B-R) OPS+ Salary
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012		 2.7
1.2
.2
.9
-.5
4.1
4.7*		 95
88
68
93
83
121
158		 not listed
$432,400
$461,200
$1,400,000
$3,100,000
$1,250,000
$6,000,000

And in case you missed it – he’ll make $9,000,000 in each of 2013 and 2014.

I think we can all hazard a guess as to when he started taking PEDs. Assuming he did start prior to the 2011 season, why wouldn’t everyone in his situation take PEDs? A long vacation and financial security for the rest of your life (I’m ignoring adverse health consequences for the sake of argument); I’ll take it. Sure, he lost $2M or so last year, and his next violation would cost him 100 games, or roughly $6M on his current contract. He’d still have made $16M over 3 years – with 150 games in suspensions.

Now, some will argue that taking PEDs hurt his market value last fall, but what would his market value have been had he never taken them?

***************************

Moving on.

– Great article on the limitations and frustrations of WAR. Notably, the discrepancies between B-R and FanGraphs. I use WAR quite a bit in my analysis, but it’s not perfect. That’s why Baseball is a talking sport.

– King Felix signed for $175M over 7 years is about to sign a huge deal. JV is licking his chops.

– Keith Law unveiled his Tigers top 10 prospects list (you’ll need insider) – here are the top 5: Castellanos, Garcia, Rondon, Tyler Collins, Danny Vasquez.

– P&C report on Tues, full squad on Friday. Why do the pitchers and catchers go 3 days early? What do they do?

2013 Season, Spring Training

Countdown to the 2013 Season

44 Comments

It is getting to be that time of year: TigerFest has reminded the fans that the season is on its way, the pitchers and catchers are starting to pack their bags (they report in only 11 days), the turtle is clearing its throat, and Opening Day is exactly 2 months away.

Here is a scrapbook of highlights from the Tigers’ Winter Caravan and TigerFest.

Well this time last season, the big problem to solve was the loss of Victor Martinez, and the big solution was the unexpected blockbuster deal to sign Prince Fielder.  This season, the offseason issues were less obvious, and as Spring Training approaches the front office has been very quiet.

What does everyone think the Top 5 things to watch are now that Spring Training is around the corner? I’ll throw this list out there:

  1. Who will be the Tiger closer? It looks likely that Bruce Rondon will be given every chance to claim the job. If he does not seem up to the task, the Tigers have other options already on the staff (Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke, Al Alburquerque, Joaquin Benoit), or could look at a late signing.
  2. Who will be the #5 starter? Rick Porcello looks like the odd man out in a very solid starting rotation. The Tigers have shown patience in not biting on any trades for him under his value. With Drew Smyly showing promise and the Tigers without another lefty in the rotation, Porcello is the odd man out.
  3. How well will Victor Martinez come back? Victor was a force in 2011, as he has been routinely throughout his career. But he is 34 and just missed an entire season. What happens if he struggles in his comeback?
  4. Who is in Left? It would seem that the job would be Andy Dirks’ to win or lose. But he is one of those guys who has been stuck with the “not a full-time player?” question mark, deservedly or not. A RHB Left Fielder to platoon with Dirks would seem to make sense, but the Tigers didn’t pick one of them up. Do we see Garcia or Castellanos there, and if so, how soon?
  5. How will Torii fit in?  Newest Tiger Torii Hunter seems to solve a huge problem from 2012, when Tiger Right-Fielders finished dead last in the AL with a .641 OPS. He also gives them a 2-hitter, a spot the Tigers have struggled to fill for a while. Torii does have a habit of making waves with his mouth though, once referring to Latin American players as imposters.
2012 Season, Spring Training

Spring Training Box Scores

9 Comments

The Tigers’ 14-4 spring training record is one of the best in the majors, and one of the best in recent Tigers history. They haven’t lost back to back games all spring. Largely inconsequential, yes; but it’s better than 4-14.

Spring Training stats are generally poor performance predictors, but let’s see if a deeper look can reveal anything.

Ryan Raburn is pacing the Majors with 6 HR and has a 1.336 OPS. Raburn is hitting a HR every 6.5 ABs, and off of starting pitching too. Raburn has had good springs in the past, but never with this level of power (9/12 hits are for extra bases). Curiously, though, he only has 4 walks (one of them was an IBB). I’d prefer a little more patience.

Raburn’s 18 RBI are 2nd in the Majors, behind Delmon Young’s 19. DY has 10/19 XBH. I think the left field position is secure.

Offensively, Cabrera has been up to his old tricks, so let’s take a look at the defensive numbers. 1 error in 58 1/3 is good news, however it looks like he’s not getting to many balls (or to them quickly), as evidenced by his 1.23 RF and 1 DP. I know that we have limited data to work with, but all of the reports coming out of Lakeland have been pretty high on his D. I think that the jury is still out. Good news is that he should be ready for opening day.

After those those four, the hitters have been unremarkable, until you get to our old friend Brandon Inge. Inge has, offensively, been the worst hitter this spring, scraping out only 3 XBH in 43 PAs. His .502 OPS is less than 10 others’ SLG (of those who are playing regularly). The number questioning  how he makes this team year after year is increasing. Most of the Detroit press have conceded that he’ll be on the roster, but are starting to question the 2B job. Who knows, if the Tigers keep an extra OF (Patterson/Berry) then Worth may be the 2B guy.

Quentin Berry has played a pretty nifty CF, and it will be interesting to see if that translates into some time in the show this year. Let’s do a post on the just in/just out guys later this week.

It’s not the hitting that is winning all those games in Florida.

JV was featured in yet another TV spot, this time for MLB.com, where he predicted more complete games and hitting 107 (mph, I think). The more complete games is a fantastic goal for the season. Verlander has been very sharp this season striking out 20 in 20 2/3, but he has allowed 1+ first inning run in 2 out of his last 3 starts. Also, he’s getting significantly more ground outs this spring than usual…I’m not quite sure what to make of that. He’s going to throw 100 pitches on the 31st as his final warm-up for opening day.

Scherzer has been up and down in ST, but his last start out against a depleted Yankees line-up was pretty sick. Scherzer has struck out 21 in 20 IPs against only 5 walks, and he’s posting a 1.10 WHIP. He has hit 4 batters though. I don’t know if Scherzer is ready to be an ace, but this is his best ST by far.

But what about Fister as an ace? Fister’s first 2 STs were bad, to put it nicely. But this year he’s got a sub 1 WHIP (.90), 11Ks in 13 1/3, and a 5.5/1 K/BB ratio. He’s had 1 bad inning in 4 starts this spring.

The bullpen looks to be in mid-season form already. Everyone who should be on the 25 man looks great., other than David Pauley who only has 2 2/3 innings of work. I am particularly encouraged by Schlereth’s .100 BAA and 12ks in 9 IPs, though equally worried about his 5 BB.

I know that Inge talk is hot, I’ll put together a few notes on that later tonight so that we can keep a thread going through roster cuts.