Category Archives: Uncategorized

Soliciting Feedback

Typically once a year I try and get feedback about the site. I realized I hadn’t done that this year, so here’s your chance to rip me or praise me.

I’m currently working on a redesign, so any comments related to layout would be appreciated. What do you like about the current layout, what don’t you like? Do you mind that there are ads on the site? Are they too prominent or don’t you notice them? Is the site readable? Is the text to big or too small? Is navigation easy or not the least bit intuitive? And any other comments are appreciated as well.

Also, I’d love to know what you think of the content. What are your favorite types of posts? Would you prefer I did more short posts, or do you like it better when I save up a couple days worth of things? Do you like the numbers-heavy posts or simply the commentary.

As always, I won’t promise that I’ll implement everything that gets suggested. However, I appreciate all of you and value your opinions. I also take a lot of pride in the site, and want to make it as useful to the reader as possible.

Thanks for indulging me in this non-baseball activity. Feel free to leave any comments, or if you’d prefer you can email me at bill at detroittigersweblog.com. And in case you were wondering, here is the design I’m currently working on:

Blogger Hiccups

I apologize for the technical difficulties regarding the Todd Jones post. Blogger was acting up last night, and things got screwed up. Also, if you left comments on one of the superflous posts, those were obliterated also. Again – sorry about that.

But a comment that was posted was that Todd Jones was not offered arbitration so the Tigers will not have to cough up a draft pick.

Tigers get Todd Jones

The Detroit News is reporting that the Detroit Tigers have reached an agreement with Todd Jones. It is reportedly a two year deal (Tim points out in the comments it is rumored to be $8-10 million which seems like a lot to me). Jones was quite good last year as he halved his walk rate (1.7) and struck out 7.8/9IP. Most impressive may have been that he allowed only 2 home runs in 73 innings pitched. Granted he was in a park that limits homers, but he’ll be moving to a park that limits homers as well.

While his numbers were better across the board last year, the strength in his strikeouts, walks, and homers, indicates that it probably wasn’t all luck.

Jones is a likable guy who may be a good influence in the bullpen. Matt Anderson’s best season came when he took over closer duties from Jones in 2001. Maybe he can have a similar effect on Fernando Rodney.

The timing is a little curious in that Florida probably wasn’t going to offer arbitration to Jones by midnight tonight. If the deal is closed before midnight, or if the Marlins in fact do offer arbitration, the Tigers will lose a 2nd round draft pick.

Granderson in demand
First there were the rumors about Curtis Granderson to Florida for Josh Beckett. Then it was Granderson in the Javier Vazquez deal. Now it appears that the Red Sox are interested in Curtis as well. At least it further validates Tiger fans’ hope that Granderson is the real deal.

Baseball in the Dominican Republic

The St Louis Post Dispatch has an interesting article about baseball acadamies, corruption, and buscones in the Domincan Republic. Quoted in the article is Detroit Tigers assistant GM Al Avila.

Avila’s father, Ralph, helped the Los Angeles Dodgers establish a foothold in the Dominican as a scout and executive 30 years ago. The Dodgers subsequently built the nation’s most impressive academy. (The academy was forced to close for one year when the club was found to have signed Adrian Beltre before his 16th birthday.)

“It’s a different system than in the United States,” Avila said. “You have to operate within that system. Certainly there are elements you would like to change. And things have changed to an extent. But it’s still different.”

Article:STLtoday – Sports – Special Reports

2005 in Review – Tigers run distribution

Earlier in the season I took a look at Detroit’s run distribution. By run distribution I’m talking about the frequency with which they scored (or allowed) a certain number of runs per game. I’ve updated the analysis to include a full season’s worth of games.

The chart below shows the Tiger’s performance given the number of runs the offense generated. Wins are indicated with the orange bars, and blue denotes losses. The yellow line shows the cumulative percentage of games played where the team scored less than x runs. That explanation isn’t the least bit clear, so here is an example using two runs: The Tigers scored 2 runs 21 times (total of wins and losses), and they only managed to win 3 (orange bar) of those games. Furthermore, the Tigers scored two runs or fewer nearly 30% of the time (the yellow line). For comparative purposes, I did the same for all of baseball in 2005.


What I notice first is the large spike at three runs. The Tigers 3 or fewer runs in approximately half of there games, where as major league baseball was held to that mark 40% of the time. In addition, they didn’t fare as well as Major League Baseball at corresponding run levels. At two runs scored, MLB had a .253 winning percentage compared to .143 for Detroit. At three runs it was .347 for MLB and .290 for Detroit. In fact the only run levels where Detroit met or exceeded MLB were at 6 and 8 runs.

Extrapolating a little further, if you look at MLB’s winning percentage at for each scoring level, and apply it to the Tigers then Detroit should have won 76 games. Which leads us into a similar analysis of runs allowed.

Like the runs scored graph, the runs allowed graph has a significant spike. Unfortunately the runs allowed spike is at 4, where the runs scored was at 3. Where the expected wins were typically lower across the board in terms of runs scored, they were inline for the most part for runs allowed. In fact, virtually all the differences in expected and actual wins for runs allowed can be attributed to 2 & 3 run games. When the pitchers allowed 2 or 3 runs, the Tigers won 6 games fewer than expected.

While the pitching staff did implode during the month of August, they were largely effective. Their ability to keep the team in the game was inline with that of other teams. However they weren’t quite good enough to compensate for the offense. Conversely, the offense wasn’t quite good enough to compensate for a slightly below average pitching staff.

Other posts wrapping up the Detroit Tigers’ 2005 season:
Days, Dollars and the DL
Runs Created
A model of inefficiency
Treemapping Win Shares

Paul Carey and other news

As a long time Tiger fan I spent many a night listening to the Tigers on the radio while growing up. Those of you who read my interview with Ernie Harwell, know my affection for the old time Tiger broadcasters. That other broadcaster who was with Ernie Harwell for so long was Paul Carey, and wouldn’t it be great to see him in the Hall of Fame as well? Throughout the month of November you can vote for broadcasters to be placed on the final ballot for the 2006 Ford C Frick award. I’d love to see Carey get in and I encourage all long time Tiger fans to go vote for Paul.

AJ Burnett
This falls under the category of not surprising, but the Tigers have contacted Burnett’s agent, Darek Braunecker. At least according to this article some interest may have waned with the September shenanigans, but the Tigers are listed alongside the Rangers, Mariners, and Blue Jays as teams who are still interested. Of course any agent worth his salt would keep as many teams in play for as long as possible. As for my thoughts on Burnett, I’ll get into that in a seperate post (basically I’m still doing my research).

2006 Projections

Last week Tiger Tales posted the projections from the Bill James book (aff link). Today, commenter Walewander (awesome name) pointed out that Baseball Think Factory has posted their ZiPS projections. I won’t copy their work here, but I will recommend you check out the projections for Shelton, Pudge, Verlander, and Zumaya. Shelton looks very promising, and Pudge projects to decent production. ZiPS thinks Verlander will be a stud. Zumaya on the other hand looks to struggle like a first time starter – but that wouldn’t be bad production given his age. Take the projections for what they are – educated guesses (albeit with some pretty good math behind them).

BA’s Top 20
Jim Callis posted his top 20 long term prospects. Justin Verlander was the lone Tiger rating number 11, which is probably fair. The nice thing is that you could make a legitimate argument that a second Tiger prospect could have been included. Things are looking up in the minors.

Handing out hardware

Earlier in the week, DIBS announced Placido Polanco as its choice of Tiger of the Year (as well as pitcher and breakout player). We seem to be in pretty much complete agreement with the Detroit Chapter of the Baseball Writers of America as they announced Polanco yesterday. (I want to thank my DIBS brethern for so enthusiastically embracing DIBS.)

Other awards that were announced include the AL Gold Gloves and the Tigers were shut-out. Pudge Rodriguez picked-up a gold glove he didn’t deserve last year, but he was unfairly shut-out this year. Rodriguez shut down the opponents running game. He threw out over half the attempted base stealers (to be fair I think some of Maroth’s pick-offs were included in there), and that’s not the most impressive part. Of catchers with over 1000 innings caught, only Joe Mauer had fewer attempts. Runners didn’t even try against Rodriguez. Jason Varitke, the winner, threw out only 24% of stolen base attempts. Pudge had 4 passed balls to Varitek’s 7, and 4 errors to Varitek’s 8. This isn’t even really close.

Other Tiger related news

  • Former Tiger stud prospect Torey Lovullo was named manager of Cleveland Indians AAA affiliate Buffalo. This gets a little more relevant when I mention that former Tiger hitting coach Bruce Fields will be taking on the same role for Buffalo
  • Alan Trammell, who made Paul Depodesta’s short list for the Dodgers job was informed he is no longer in the running for the Tampa Bay job. And with Depodesta out, his status for LA remains to be seen.
  • The Tigers completed the John Macdonald trade from earlier this season by sending cash considerations to Toronto. I know everyone is relieved to finally have this settled.

Site News
I’ve done some more tweaking on the site, but I don’t think it is too noticeable. I’ve shrunk the logo slightly, as well as my picture and the fonts in the sidebar. I’ve also added Chitika eMiniMalls as another revenue source. I point all this out because in case something isn’t working that means I recently broke it and I’d appreciate if you let me know.

I’ve got a ton of stuff to write about, it’s just finding the time. However, next week I plan a post combing through the roster in preparation for the hot stove season. Also, I’m still working on wrapping up the 2005 season (I’m intentionally spacing this out – it’s a long offseason) taking a look at the pitching staff from a DIPS perspective.

DIBS Awards

At the end of the season, eleven web sites that write about the Detroi Tigers voted on a Tiger player of the year, pitcher of the year, and breakout player. Today, DIBS (Detroit Independent Baseball Scribes) announced the winners. Placido Polanco took home player of the year honors, Jeremy Bonderman won pitcher of the year, and Chris Shelton was the breakout player.

As for my ballot, I agreed completely. For player of the year, I gave consideration to Bonderman, Polanco, Shelton, and Craig Monroe. Monroe was the only one to spend the whole season with the team, but I chose to go with Polanco. Polanco’s OPS of 847 ranked among the team leaders, and he did it while playing flawless defense at an important position. Throw in the fact that by all appearances he was the consumate teammate, the decision was easy.

Among pitching candidates, had Kyle Farnsworth not been traded he probably would have had my vote. Bonderman’s second half slide made him an average pitcher for the year. However, given his age and experience his season was still impressive.

As for the breakout player, there was little question that Chris Shelton should win. In fact, he received the first place vote on all 11 ballots. While Curtis Granderson was very impressive whlie he was in Detroit, Shelton did it longer. In any case, both players were bright spots in what turned out to be a disappointing season.

So that’s my ballot, but what about these 11 websites and DIBS? The idea was spawned by myself, Ryan Sosin, and Brian Borawski last season. There are a ton of great internet sites covering sports – specifically the Tigers – that are flying under the radar. The intention of DIBS is to help improve and promote those sites. As a member of the Tiger blogging community, one of the great things is that the various sites aren’t competitive. We don’t snipe at each other, and we do our best to promote each other. If one of our sites gains exposure, we all benefit. And that’s really what DIBS is all about. We want to generate great content, and we want to get that content in front of as big an audience as possible.

Tiger Tales and more

There is a new addition to the Tiger blogosphere. Tiger Tales is written by Lee Panas, who if you spend time on various Tiger message boards you’ll recognize as Tiger337. I only know Lee from his comments on Motown Sports, but I find myself agreeing with him more often than not. So if you enjoy my site I’m sure you’ll enjoy his. Expect the site to be loaded with analysis. In only his first week he’s done some extensive work with runs created.

Quick Hits
-Continuing to highlight my Tiger blogging brethren, check out the artsy baseball pictures that Sam has posted on Blue Cats and Red Sox. I have a hard time appreciating art in general, but I have no problem enjoying this.

-Several people have emailed me about the Ugueth Urbina machete incident. If you’re interested in some more information, Phillies Nation has a pretty good collection of links covering the situation. As for my take, whether or not any of this is true doesn’t change my opinion that Ugie probably isn’t right in the head. On another note, what can possibly happen next to make the Polanco trade appear even better. First the Tigers get a productive player -who appears to be a stand-up citizen and teammate. Then he practically begs to sign an extension here. And then Urbina goes nuts. Short of Polanco cloning himself, and his body double playing for free, I don’t think this can trade can look any better.

Coaching staff almost set

The Free Press today indicates that the coaching staff is set – with the exception of pitching coach. The article focuses mostly on Andy Van Slyke as outfield coach. The rest of the staff, as has been speculated is:
Gene Lamont – Bench coach & 3rd base
Lloyd McClendon – Bullpen
Rafael Belliard – Infield Coach
Don Slaught – Hitting Coach

Leyland has brought together some guys with considerable coaching/managing experience, as well as some first timers. I like seeing McClendon on the staff, because similar to Trammell, I’d like to see what he could do with some talent.

As for pitching coach, there were reports that the Tigers offered Larry Rothschild a 3 year contract. It sounds as if Rothschild is debating the Tigers offer, or a one year offer to return to the Cubs. But in today’s Freep story, it doesn’t sound like the Tigers are close to naming a pitching coach at all.

“We really have no answers on how it will turn out,” Leyland said. “We probably will not pick a pitching coach for a while yet. We have some other names on the list.”

Leyland reiterated that he will take as much time as necessary to find the right pitching coach. Rothschild was Leyland’s pitching coach on the 1997 world-champion Marlins.

Site Updates
I’m working on updating this site, and so you may see some changes. I don’t know if I’ll do an entire overhaul or not. What I have done so far is add Google Search to replace Atomz. The search box is poorly located at the very bottom of the page, but I’ll be working to find it a new home. I’ve also added this site to Feedburner, so in the sidebar you can now easily subscribe to the newsreader of your choice. And last, and most importantly, I’ve finally switched to individual pages for posts. I think all the images and links within this site should work. But if something isn’t working for you, please let me know.

The Rothschild Files

According to John Lowe, the Tigers have asked for permission to interview Larry Rothschild for pitching coach. Rothschild has been the pitching coach for the Chicago Cubs for the last 4 seasons. And let’s look at his track record.

During that time the Cubs have lost Kerry Wood and Mark Prior for a significant amount of time due to inury. In 2005, Cubs pitchers Carlos Zambrano and Mark Prior ranked 2nd and 3rd in all of baseball in pitcher abuse points. Prior and Zambrano combined had 8 outings in which they threw more than 122 pitches. Zambrano has been in the top 10 in pitcher abuse points each of the last 3 years – he’s 25 years old. Prior was 4th in the league in PAP in 2003, as a rookie.

I don’t know if this is Rothschild’s fault or Dusty Baker’s, but considering the Tigers are trying to build a young pitching staff, this stuff scares me. Especially combined with Jim Leyland’s use of young pitchers in 1998. But in all fairness, Mark Prior thinks highly enough of him that he would like Rothschild back next year.

Also, in an interview with Baseball Prospectus, pitching mechanics guru Tom House had this to say when asked about the best pitching coaches in the game:

(Larry) Rothschild is in the middle of new- and old-school, and gives a bit of the best of both worlds. Some of these guys just get more publicity than others, but there are more good ones now than there have been in the past.

Other information I found about Rothschild is that he is a proponent of the change-up, much like Bob Cluck. It was something he stressed heavily during a managing stint in Tampa.

It’s nice to see some positive comments. However, given that the Tigers are staking a large part of our hopes to Bonderman/Verlander/Zumaya, I still find myself apprehensive.

Other Stuff
-David Espinosa is off to a strong start in the Arizona Fall League. In his first two games he’s gone 5 for 9 with 3 doubles and a stolen base. Other Tigers in the AFL are Don Kelly (0 for 4), Kody Kirkland (no action), Mark Woodyard, Adam Peterson (allowed 2 homers in 1 1/3), and Humberto Sanchez.