In Tom Gage’s blog he reports that the Tigers haverecalled Wil Ledezma. Franklyn German was sent to the minors. Ledezma has a cap of 150 innings this year, so he’ll be pitching from the pen.

“‘I defend guys to the bitter end, but eventually you run out of ammunition. ” -Bob Cluck on the Tigers’ Bullpen

Tiger relievers have one moreweek to prove their worth

The bullpen has been inconsistent at best. According to Baseball Prospectus the Tigers’ bullpen still ranks as the third worst in baseball-as it has all year. And finally, the Tigers are talking about making changes.

The problem with a bad bullpen is that the emotional effect that it has on fans as well as a team. Fans become frustrated as leads slip away. Batters begin to wonder how many times they have to come back. And then there are the starters. The look on Jeremy Bonderman’s face after German allowed the homer today pretty much summed up the starter’s frustrations.

So where are these new bullpen arms coming from? The Tigers could call up some arms from the minors. Chris Mears should be at least as effective as Al Levine. Felix Sanchez was supposed to be a usable piece, but he has struggled mightily in limited time at Erie.

The other option is to buy some bullpen arms. And that comes down to the question of whether or not a solidified bullpen will keep this team in the race (assuming they are now). Whlie the bullpen has been an obvious problem, and upgrading 2 of the arms probably would keep them closer to .500, the team isn’t close enough to the White Sox. And if you’re more worried about the Twins, the Tigers don’t have the chips to acquire the guns that the Twins can.

The Tigers need an outfield bat, and a true top of the rotation guys. Hopefully, the farm system has the pitchers on the way, but the outfiled bat just isn’t there.

So while picking up a Scott Sullivan may help scratch out a couple more wins this year, it’s not worth it unless he comes cheap.

Other Notes:
-The umpires look like they need the All Star break more than the players. Strike zones have been ridiculously inconsistent within games and there have been a ton of blown calls at bases.
-Jason Johnson truly performed like a staff ace on Tuesday. He stopped a 5 game losing streak, and pitched 8 innings to give a burnt out bullpen a rest.
-Gary Knotts OPS against in innings 1-3 is .627. In 4-6 it climbs to .791, and explodes to 1.167 after the sixth. While he’s pitched well enough to deserve a spot in the rotation, this could be your new closer when Urbina gets traded.

The Tigers started off the month in a disapponting fashion going 2-5 against division rivals Minnesota and Kansas City. Four of the losses were by two runs or fewer, and featured some unusual bullpen decisions. The Tigers then turned things around for interleague play and won their next three series (including a 4 game win streak).

The Tigers then went to New York and lost 2 games in the bottom of the ninth to the Mets. They followed up those two losses with three uninspiring performances against the Mets and Royals and the result was the teams first 5 game losing streak of the season.

The Tigers managed to win the third game against Kansas City on get away day, and came home to face the struggling Diamonbacks. Jason Johnson pitched 8 innings of one hit ball, and Urbina came into close out a 2-1 win. The Tiger bats came alive over the next 5 games as the Tigers scored 43 runs. The result was a 6 game win streak to close the month that featured 3 consecutive walk-off homers.

Comings, Goings, and Doctor Appointments
June 1st marked the return of Dmitri Young from his broken leg. Unfortunately, Chris Shelton went on the disabled list the same day with a foot injury. On June 21st, the Tigers shook up their bullpen and demoted Steve Colyer in favor of Franklyn German.

Brandon Inge broke his finger trying to lay down a bunt which prompted the recall of back up catcher Mike DiFelice. Also, Greg Norton went on the disabled list with a sore knee. To replace Norton the Tigers called up Marcus Thames who was torching AAA pitching.

Alex Sanchez tweaked his hamstring near the end of the month which caused him to miss several games, but didn’t require a trip to the DL.

By the Numbers
The late offensive surge helped to bolster the Tigers’ offensive stats for the month. Their batting average and slugging percentage remained strong, but their on base average dropped considerably from where it had been the first two months.

The pitchers had a very strong month across the board. Most notably, the batting average against was a league best .246. Also impressive was holding the opposing slugging percentage under .400. So what changed for the pitchers? Were they striking out more batters? Nope (Sea. K/9=6.37 Jun K/9=6.36). Were they walking fewer batters? Not really (Sea. K/BB=1.75 Jun K/BB=1.92) So what’s the explanation? Maybe the pitching staff benefitted from pitching to pitchers in interleague play. Maybe they did well with runners in scoring position. Maybe the defense helped them out more than in other months?

Who’s Hot
It’s all about Pudge. He went 43 for 86 and finished the month at .500. His line for the month: .500/.542/.733. Oh yeah, and he was 4-4 in stolen bases as well.

Also especially strong for the Tigers was the third base position. Brandon Inge won the job by hitting .372/.431/.628 for the month before getting injured and turning the position over to Eric Munson. Munson stepped right in and hit .291/.391/.600.

I don’t know if Carlos Guillen should be listed as a hot player, because he just keeps putting up great numbers every month. It was more of the same in June where he hit .321/.360/.613.

As for the pitchers Jason Johnson posted a 2.36 ERA over 5 starts. Most impressive is that he allowed only 5 walks and no home runs in 34 and a third innings pitched. Nate Robertson continued to impress by posting a 2.98 ERA and going 3-0 in six starts.

Who’s Not
The Tigers outfield had a very rough month. Here are the OPS numbers for the guys who played the bulk of the games in the outfield:

White       .547
Sanchez     .586
Higginson   .694
Monroe      .731

At least Sanchez was 7 for 8 in stolen base attempts before tweaking his hamstring.

Marcus Thames Tiger debut has been a disappointment. He’s 1 for 17 and hasn’t really even hit a ball hard yet.

Jeremy Bonderman only managed 24 innings pitched over his five outings. In those 24 innings he walked 14 batters, albeit while striking out 27. However, his 6.75 ERA has people questioning whether or not he should still be starting.

Mike Maroth managed a 4.60 ERA, but I’m not sure how. In 31 innings he allowed 5 homeruns, 37 hits, and 10 walks. He offset that with only 12 strikeouts.

The bullpen also continued to struggle for the month.

Lowlight of the Month
While the last inning losses to the Mets were disappointing, the one that is sticking with me was the 6-5 loss to Minnesota. Esteban Yan’s collapse and Trammell’s mismanagement of the bullpen in that game, right after the Tigers had fought back to tie it were devastating. It further weakened any confidence in the bullpen, and brought out a flood of second guessing about Tram’s managing. Just ugly all around.

Highlight of the Month
Another month, and another list of candidates. Jason Johnson’s one hit performance was spectacular. And the three walk-off home runs in front of big crowds are definitely worty candidates. However, I’m giving the nod to Pudge’s performance this month. It was simply unlike anything I’d ever seen before, and I’ll probably ever see again.

Looking Ahead
The Tigers have a brutal stretch heading into the All Star break, thanks in large part to Bud Selig. In Bud’s quest to prove that interleague play really does boost attendance, MLB makes sure to schedule 4 of the 6 interleague series on weekends (conveniently right when school let’s out and attendance jumps up anyways). The result is that the Tigers have a 10 game road trip with no off days despite traveling from Colorado to New York.

What will make this trip especially brutal is that the bullpen will be depleted in Colorado, and then they’ll have to face the Yankees. Throw in a 4 game series in Minnesota and the Tigers could be in a world of hurt come the All Star game.

After the break, the Tigers should get Brandon Inge back. This has to mean more rest/DH days for Pudge who will be playing pretty much every day and as an All Star won’t actually get a break.

After the All Star break the Tigers start with 4 games at home against the Yankees. The last 13 games are against the AL Central, which includes the first six games against the White Sox. That’s why I wouldn’t expect to see any deals until right before the trade deadline. The stretch before the break, and the first couple series after the break will determine if this team will buy, sell, or hold.

With the completion of this last homestand, the Tigers have now played 40 of their 81 home games this season. While they still rank 23rd in all of baseball in average attendance, they are ticking upwards. Over the last 6 game homestand the Tigers averaged 30,364 fans and were kind enough to treat the fans to 6 exciting games.

The Tigers home attendance for the season is now at 879,640. Projecting that out over the 41 remaining games would give the Tigers 1,781,271 which would be the highest total since they had 1.9 million fans in 2001. However, to the extent the Tigers can keep things interesting, they have a shot to draw close to 2 million fans.

The following table shows the Tigers average attendance in their first 40 games and their last 41 (or 40 games some years) and the won-loss record after 40 home games.

In both 2000 and 2001 attendance climbed significantly in the second half of the season, and in 2002 it ticked up very slightly. Typically, Detroit draws the bulk of it’s fans from mid-June to late-August so this isn’t surprising at all. The exception was 2003’s team which failed to draw anybody all season long.

This year in the second half the Tigers have home weekend series against the Yankees and Red Sox. The Yankees series after the All-Star break has already sold 125,000 and will more than likely sell out 3 of the 4 games. Also, the Tigers have 10 games remaining against the division leading White Sox. To the extent that the Tigers can stay within 8 or so games of the AL Central lead, those 10 games could be pretty meaningful.

To reach 2 million fans for the first time since Comerica opened in 2000 (2.5 million) the Tigers would need to average 27,325 fans the rest of the way. That seems like a very reachable goal given the remaining games and the way the team is playing.

One more note on attendance… The Tigers rank 23rd in the majors in attendance, but third in the AL Central. Of the bottom 11 teams in attendance, five are from the AL Central.

While Brandon Inge and Omar Infante are getting lots of credit for being pleasant surprises, and Carlos Guillen and Pudge have received accolades for exceeding expectations, Nate Robertson may be the biggest surprise of all. With the exception of two bad outings against Anaheim, Nate has been a very solid performer-especially for a guy that was even in the rotation at the start of the year.

I’ve talked before about defense independent pitching, which looks at the stats that a pitcher has direct control over (strike outs, walks, and home runs). Early in the season Robertson was striking out better than a batter an inning. He’s slipped in that regard, but he’s also allowing fewer walks and fewer home runs. Even still, he is exceeding his fielding indepent pitching ERA which in the past I’ve attributed to luck. His actual ERA is 3.81 and his FIP ERA is 4.09. In Nate’s case the difference comes down to pop-outs.

The folks at Hardball Times have been tracking the types of hits that pitchers have allowed. The types of balls in play that a pitcher allows have an impact on the fieldability of balls. This table shows the league averages for the different types of balls in play (for the full article click here):

Type             Percent     Out%       HR%
Groundballs        45%        72%        0%
OF Flyballs        30%        75%       12%
Line Drives        19%        26%        2%
IF Flyballs         6%        97%        0%

Not surprisingly, line drives are most likely to be hits, and infield flys are most likely to be outs. Now let’s take a look at Nate Robertson’s hits allowed and the league averages (here’s a link to all the stats)

           ERA    FIP    DER   LD%   G/F  IF/Fly   K/9  BB/9  HR/9   
AL League  4.50   4.50   .691  .178  1.20   .159   6.3   3.4   1.1  
Robertson  3.81   4.09   .750  .156  1.36   .356   7.9   3.7   0.9

Nate has had much better defense behind him than the league average (DER is defense efficiency ratio and it represents the percentage of balls in play that are turned into outs). But the reason has the defense had been better at generating outs is that Nate isn’t allowing a lot of line drives, and because more than a third of the fly balls he allows never leave the infield. Nate’s ability to induce fieldable balls, combined with his defense independent performance have helped provide Nate with the 14th best ERA in the AL.

Other Notes:
-Maybe Dmitri’s home run last night will help settle him down a little bit. Young has always been an agressive hitter, but he’s swinging at just about everything that they’re throwing to him. Last night he saw 14 pitches in 6 at-bats, and he swung at 10 of them. In Sunday’s game, if you take out the intentional walk, he swung at 14 of the 19 pitches thrown to him.

-Franklyn German’s failure last night will make it harder for Detroit to let go of Urbina. While I think German got squeezed on the walk to Blake, he had no control when he allowed the homer to Broussard.

-Tom Gage reported today that Fernando Vina isn’t close to returning which means Infante will get to continue and establish himself as part of the next Tiger’s core. He managed to reach base twice leading off last night, but he also looked bad striking out his first to trips up and swinging at the first pitch late in the game with Monroe on second.

With Alex Sanchez day to day Alan Trammell needed to slot someone else in the leadoff spot on Sunday. In a surprise move, he put Infante at the top of the order, and he responded going 3-5 and scoring a run. It led me to take a look at how the various spots in the Tigers line up have performed.

The table below shows the OPS that the Tigers have gotten from each spot in the line up, and how they rank in the AL.

Batter	 OPS    AL Rank
1	.726	     12
2	.828	      6
3	.953	      2
4	.810	      7
5	.621	     14
6	.759	      7
7	.740	      7
8	.859	      1
9	.767	      1

What jumps out is that the Tigers despite being average or better in spots 2,3, and 4 are exceptionally weak at leadoff and the number 5 spot. Also, the bottom of the order has done pretty well, but more on that in a minute.

In the leadoff spot Alex Sanchez has had the bulk of the at bats. While his .322 batting average is impressive, his .336 on base average and 11 caught stealings are now. I’ll even ignore Sanchez’s .386 slugging percentage because I’m more worried about OBA at the top of the order than power. What is really telling, is that in 61 games Sanchez has only scored 39 runs despite having solid production in the next 3 lineup spots. On the other hand, Tiger leadoff hitters other than Sanchez have scored 14 runs in 13 games. In addition, Sanchez is only seeing 3.04 pitches per plate apperance. Compare that to Omar Infante who typically sees 4.11. Simply put, Sanchez should not be in the top of the lineup.

Now the 5th spot has been exceptionally bad. There has been significantly less production from that spot in the lineup that any other. The 5th spot does have a .301 OBA which is actually impressive considering the position is only batting .219. The 5th spot has been shared almost evenly by Carlos Pena, Craig Monroe, Rondell White, and Bobby Higginson. White is the only one to hit for any power (.443 slg) and Higginson is the only one to get on base at a decent rate (.424).

The good news is that Omar Infante and Brandon Inge (with some of Munson’s power thrown in) have made the bottom two spots in the order the strongest in the American League.

So what should Trammell do to make the lineup more productive? While you could move Guillen to the 5th spot to generate more production, it would just weaken the another part of the lineup. Until one of Munson/Pena/Monroe/Thames develop into a consistent hitter, or White goes on another tear, it’s just moving around struggling players. In the meantime, I would bat Higginson 5th. He does a pretty good job of not making outs, so despite a lack of power, he won’t be a rally killer.

The White Sox acquired Freddy Garcia for a couple of high level prospects and young catcher Miguel Olivo. The White Sox are close enough that they can take a win now approach, and due to impending free agency they pretty much have to. As the Twins Geek points out:

So this trade raises the bar in the AL Central. Expect the Twins to follow suit and try to bolster their club for this year as well. So if the Twins and White Sox are going to club it out for the AL Central, where does that leave the other teams? We know Kansas City is in rebuilding mode. The Indians are playing very well right now and have a solid, young, affordable team. I don’t know if they will join the fray this year, or just play it out and see what happens next year.

That leaves the Tigers, who still haven’t decided if they are going to buy/sell/hold. Despite the fact that the Tigers are only 6 games out, I think the distance from the White Sox has just grown significantly. While that may preclude them from being buyers, I don’t think that necessarily means they are sellers. If this season was about building credibility, then they are well on their way. Trading off contributing players would send the wrong message to the current team as well as the fans. That’s why, unless the Tigers are offered packages that include players who could play in the majors within the next year (like an outfield bat or decent relief pitching) I think they should hold off on any trades for the time being.

And then what happens next year? If the White Sox don’t make the playoffs this year, I’d imagine they’ll have a hard time signing all those free agents, and they’ve given up some of their top prospects. This could open the door for Cleveland and Detroit to be legitimate contenders next year (depending on what happens in the offseason).

That being said, as Jeff pointed out in the comments to a previous post, Jason Johnson has been mentioned as backup plan for the Yankees in the event they didn’t get Garcia. Keep in mind that the Tigers will be playing in New York next week, and it wouldn’t shock me if Johnson didn’t make the subsequent trip to Minnesota.

Just when the Tigers look defeated, beat up, and destined for a fight for last place, they put together a nice little string of games. The Tigers followed a five game losing streak with a win on get-away day from KC and a sweep of the Diamondbacks.

It started Friday night when the Tigers scratched out a 2-1 win in a pitcher’s duel. Jason Johnson pitched 8 innings of one hit ball. He only allowed one walk to go along with 6 K’s and made it through 24 outs on only 86 pitches. Johnson’s game score was 80 which places it in one of the top 20 AL games pitched this year. It was surprising that Tram went with Urbina in the 9th since Johnson had been so dominant and efficient. However, in going back and looking at some numbers, I think Trammell made the right move. Johnson breaks down tremendously after 90 pitches. This year after pitch 90, opponents are hitting .400/.441/.550 against Johnson. Because the Tigers were protecting a one run lead, it made sense to turn it over to the closer. Urbina fanned the first two before Steve Finley took Bobby Higginson to the wall for the final out.

Eric Munson won Saturday’s game with a dramatic walk-off homer into the camera stand in straightaway centerfield. The tremendous blast was measured at 457 feet, the longest in Comerica’s history. With Brandon Inge and Greg Norton on the DL, Munson is now the starting 3B again and hopefully this will be the beginning of good things for him.

However, Saturday’s game also featured Jeremy Bonderman trying to once again figure things out. And once again, it was an uneven performance from Jeremy. The 7 K’s in 7 innings were great, but the 5 walks were troubling. Also, he seemed to get rattled when the defense repeatedly broke down around him. Trammell stuck with Bonderman, even though he was struggling. Bonderman threw 118 pitches, his longest outing of the season. Following Bonderman’s last long outing (114 pitches on May 23rd) he combined for 5 1/3 innings and 14 runs in his subsequent 2 starts. It will be interesting to see what happens in Bonderman’s next start which will be in the thin air of Colorado.

Sunday had more drama as Carlos Pena finished the game with a 2-2 pitch that cleared the fence in right for a walk-off grand slam. And for the third time in as many days, the Tigers won a close one. The real story in this game was the bullpen. Danny Patterson came in with the bases loaded and no outs and closed the door inducing a double play and a pop out. This year the expected run value of an inning with the bases loaded and no outs is 2.26 runs. Essentially Patterson helped save the team 2.26 runs. Patterson was followed up by Jamie Walker who pitched 2 2/3 scoreless innings. In fact, Walker and Patterson combined to get 12 outs on 39 pitches.

Maroth has now given up a homer in his last 5 starts. Maroth’s big struggle last year was the long ball as he allowed 34 in 193 innings. He’s improved this year to 13 dingers in 100 innings. While he hasn’t pitched bad in his last few starts, he hasn’t pitched particularly well either. With the expception of Sunday’s game, he has pitched well enough to keep his team in the game. Which, as a middle to back of the rotation guy, that is about what you’d expect.

I know that decisions always look better after a win, but I thought Trammell had a fine series managing. While I thought he stuck with Bonderman a little too long on Saturday, I understood his apprhension about turing to the bullpen. Though I questioned pulling Johnson at the time on Friday, in looking at the numbers it actually made sense. Plus, his use of the bullpen on Sunday (keeping Walker in longer than normal) I thought was another strong move. My favorite move of the weekend was when he decided not to have Higginson sacrifice Infante to 3rd in the 9th inning. You may remember a similar situation in Seattle earlier this year where he asked Higginson to sacrifice runners over late in a game that backfired. At least he’s learning from his mistakes.

As everybody know by now (I guess I have to start writing on the weekends so it’s not old news on Monday) Brandon Inge was placed on the 15 day DL with a broken finger. It’s disappointing for Tiger fans, as well as Inge because he’s been playing so well this season at so many key positions. Compounding this bad news is the fact that Alex Sanchez is day to day with a tight hamstring. So in one weekend the Tigers lost their top 2 centerfielders, there starting third basemen, and their backup catcher.

Mike DiFelice took Brandon’s spot on the big league roster, and to clear room on the 40 man roster, Nate Cornejo was moved to the 60 day DL.

Here’s where it gets interesting. Between July 3rd and July 12th the Tigers will have 5 players eligible to come off the disabled list. Greg Norton is able to be activated on July 3rd. I haven’t heard much about Norton’s injury or how’s it is progressing so I don’t know whether or not he’ll be ready.

Next up is Cornejo who despite being recently moved to the 60 day DL, will be eligible to be activated on July 5th. Cornejo has thrown some simulated games and appears to be finally progressing. I imagine the Tigers will take full advantage of the ability to assign Cornejo to a 30 day rehab assignment to find out if he can find the “stuff” that he had last year. I’d imagine that we would see Cornejo in late July or early August. He is probably destined for a bullpen role unless the Tigers deal Jason Johnson, or another of the starters falters or is injured. A 40 man roster spot would need to be cleared for Cornejo, and if it were up to me, that spot would be Levine’s (assuming that Cornejo isn’t awful on his rehab assignment).

Rule 5 pick Chris Shelton is in the midst of a rehab assignment at Toledo (where he’s hitting .429 in 8 games) and his 20 day assignment will be up on July 8th. If Inge is healing as expected, Mike DiFelice will probably be DFA’d to make room for Shelton. The Tigers would then rely on Shelton/Munson as the back up catchers for the last 4 games before the All Star break with the expectation that Brandon Inge would be able to rejoin the team following the break.

Last is Fernando Vina, who like Inge is eligible to come of the DL on July 12th. Whenever Vina is healed and able to return, a spot on the 40 man roster will need to be cleared. Jason Smith will most likely be sent to the minors, but I’m not sure who the Tigers would DFA/release at that point.

No baseball news here today. I thought I would just advertise the fact that my house if up for sale. If you’re in the market for a great starter home in the Madison Heights/Royal Oak area, send me an email. It’s a 1040 sq. ft. brick ranch, 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths with two finished rooms in the basement. The roof, furnace, central air, and hot water heater have all been replaced since 1997. Hardwood floors throughout, and the kitchen was updated in 2002.

You will now be returned to your regularly scheduled Tiger blogging.

As Jeff pointed out in the comments to yesterday’s Guillen post, the Yankees are interested in Jason Johnson as a back up plan if they don’t get Freddy Garcia.

Also, Peter Gammons is speculating on the possibility of a Ugueth Urbina/Mike Maroth package going to San Francisco.

First up, the Tigers called up Marcus Thames from Toledo. Thames got his first start for the Tigs last night. Thames had been absolutely crushing the ball in Toledo and deserved the promotion.

Thames can hopefully provide some pop to the Tiger’s right field which has been pretty abysmal this year. Bobby Higginson and Monroe have played the bulk of the games out there and have combined to hit .231/.327/.337 with two home runs. Aside from Bobby’s .373 OBA there isn’t a decent stat to be found from that position. In fact, the Tigers’ RF OPS is .664 is last in the AL. In front of the Tigers are the Blue Jays at .674, and the next worst performance from that position is the Royals at .730.

It also should send a message to Craig Monroe who is struggling defensively and hasn’t had the offensive power he had last year. Monroe’s batting average is up considerably, his OBA is up modestly, but his slugging percentage is down dramatically.

To make room for Thames on the 25 man roster, Greg Norton was placed on the DL retroactive to June 18th with a knee injury. To make room on the 40 man roster, the Tigers shifted Fernando Vina from the 15 day DL to the 60 day DL.