ESPN.com is listing RPI and strength of schedule ratings for the majors on their standings page. The Tigers rank 6th overall (2nd in the AL) due in large part to their strength of schedule. Which once again brings up the question, “How good are the Tigers?”

With the win last night, they have climbed back to a .500 record. They are 4.5 games behind the Twins, 2.5 games behind the White Sox, and a game ahead of Cleveland. As it relates to SOS, the Tigers have played more games (17) against the AL West then their division counterparts. The White Sox and Royals have yet to play them, and the Twins are 6-6. The White Sox have played 6 games against the lowly Devil Rays and 5 games against the struggling Royals. The only poor team the Tigers have played are the Mariners (1-2). I’m not saying the Tigers are better than the White Sox, just that they’ve faced a stiffer test so far.

As for the Twins, they just keep winning, despite not really outscoring their opponents. Their expected pythagorean wins are 20. The Tigers expected pythagorean wins are 19. On the season the Tigers are 3-3 against the Twins. However, the Tigers run production is exceeding what their offensive events would predict due to clutch hitting with runners in scoring position. The Tigers have scored 210 runs, but their runs created (OBP*Total Bases) is actually only 191. Given the sustainability of clutch hitting, the Tigers should regress back towards their expected runs over the course of the season.

So are the Tigers as good as the Twins and White Sox? Probably not, but looking at their play so far this year, they aren’t as far behind as I would have thought. Given the fact we are almost a quarter of the way into the season, and the Tigers are still in contention in the AL Central, I am thrilled with the performance of this team.

The oops, maybe I should reconsider that department
Item 1: Alex Sanchez. Frequent readers know that I haven’t really been a proponent of Sanchez’s. His baserunning mistakes, his misplays in the outfield, and his refusal to take walks were my main ammo. However, the guy is hitting .347 with a .365 on base percentage. He still does all that stuff I don’t like (well, he did take 2 walks last night), and his 7 caught stealings should really reduce the effectiveness of his OBA, but the guy is damn entertaining.

Item 2: Greg Norton vs. Eric Munson: On a regualr basis I question why Norton is playing and Munson is sitting. Well, with Norton’s hits last night his average has surged to .172 while Munson’s dropped below .200. While I think Trammell’s use of Munson may have contributed to his slump, the gap is closing.

Quick Hits
-The Tigers will be on ESPN2 tonight. This is the 3rd time the Tigers have been picked up nationally this year. Tomorrow afternoon’s game will be on Fox Sports Net.
-Finally, this quote from Buck Showalter about Brandon Inge will end today’s post: “”He must be one of the most valuable players in the game today. He’s a catcher who can play center field and anywhere on the infield. I think he has the best release of any catcher in the American League.”

Baseball Prospectus (premium) has an article abouthow the save statistic, and not game situations dictates the usage of closers. They use the Tigers as an example of this:

And…

Now I don’t post this to be critical of Trammell, and if you read the rest of Sheehan’s article he’s not picking on the Tigers either. He’s just using them as a point of illustration. Sheehan’s main point is that the closer isn’t necessarily the best pitcher in the bullpen, and that managers use the closer position as a crutch. No one will question using Urbina in the 9th of a close game, so it’s an easy decision.

Trammell is definitely an old school manager, who subscribes to old school theories, and I don’t expect him to change anytime soon. But thinking back to the debacle in Texas, when the bullpen was faltering, why not bring in your closer in the 5th inning to stop the bleeding, instead of recently called up Craig Dingman. I know that Urbina actually lost the game later, and Dingman did end the inning. However, was Dingman really the best option at that point?

I must admit that it didn’t occur to me to put in Urbina in the 5th inning either, but it makes sense. If you get those outs in the 5th inning, then maybe the outs in the 9th inning aren’t as important.

The Hardball Times have compiled and posted 2004 Win Shares. For those unfamiliar with Win Shares, it essentially calculates a players value based on his performance in batting, pitching, and fielding. Players are then given an appropriate portion of a teams wins, such that 3 win shares equals one win. (This article does a good job of describing win shares if you want to know more)

Looking at the Tigers’ Win Shares, three newcomers top the list. Pudge has 9, and Carlos Guillen and Rondell White are tied with 7. Essentially, these three guys have accounted for 8 of the Tigers 16 (as of 5/14 when these were calculated) wins.

Next on the list of Tigers is uber utility player Brandon Inge who has 5 so far this year. Last year Brandon had 5 win shares all season. What’s more, all 5 WS last year were from fielding. This year he has contributed 4 win shares from batting.

As for how the Tigers stack up compared to the rest of the league, the three new guys all rank in the top 10 in the AL. Pudge leads all catchers. Jorge Posada is second among catchers with 6. Guillen is second behind only Michael Young at shortstop. Interestingly enough, Miguel Tejada (5) and Rich Aurilia (2), who were the Tigers first 2 choices at short, have the same number of WS combined as Guillen. Rondell White is tied for 2nd among outfielders with Magglio Ordonez and Vlad Guerrero.

As for the pitchers, well…Up until this last week, pitching was inconsistent at best. As such, the pitching staff has only contributed 11.3 of the 48 team win shares. Maroth, Jamie Walker, and Ugueth Urbina lead the hurlers with 2 WS apiece.

Random Thoughts while watching Detrot’s dominant pitching:

-The Tigers have won consecutive games for the first time in awhile. The Tigers last winning streak was April 23rd and 24th when they took the first two games of a series against Cleveland. Before that, their only other win streak was the 4-0 start to the season

-Esteban Yan picked up his 2nd four-inning save of the season. Yan struck out 4 while retiring all 12 batters he faced. The Tigers now have 3 four inning saves on the season (Robertson picked one up in Toronto).

-Gary Knotts was streaky for the Tigers last year. Fortunately he was “on” tonight. He only allowed 2 hits over five innings of work while striking out 5

-After the debacle last Saturday, the Tigers were allowing 6.33 runs per game through the first 30 games. After a week of pitching dominance, their per game average has dropped by over half a run to 5.77 through 35 games.

-In limited duty this year, Omar Infante has a .381 OBA. He has walked 7 times in his first 42 plate appearances. In 244 plate apperances last year he had 18 walks.

-Eric Munson sat again despite the fact the Tigers were facing a right handed starter. Munson has only started 4 of the last 10 games (and in one of those starts he only garnered 2 AB’s).

Trammell has made comments that the team is playing to win, and they can’t afford the patience that they showed last year. I can respect that line of thinking. What I can’t understand is how that line of thinking supports having Greg Norton in the lineup in Munson’s place. Norton’s bat continues to be more anemic than Munson’s. So it must be Norton’s superior defense right? Well, Munson’s zone rating is .671 (which isn’t good). Norton’s ZR at 3B is .619. Yes, Munson has made more errors, but Norton isn’t getting to as many balls.

If Tram wants to start Inge who is fielding solid and swinging the stick well, that’s fine. Just don’t bench Munson in the name of trying to win and replace hime with Greg Norton.

Jeremy Bonderman and Steve Colyer teamed up to pitch a great game on Wednesday. Bonderman gave the pen a rest and pitched 7 innings while only allowing two runs. He scattered 4 hits and 5 walks (ouch). Colyer came in and collected the final 6 outs. That’s the good news.

The bad news is the Tigers bats couldn’t do anything against Rich Harden. For the second straight game the Tiger hitters failed to collect an extra base hit. Their last extra base hit was in the 8th inning of Sunday’s game. Which means it’s been 25 innings.

Quick hits:
…Fernando Vina was placed on the 15 day disabled list with a hamstring problem. Infante will get the bulk of the playing time at second, and Guillen will probably move up into the two-spot in the order. Offensively the Tigers won’t be giving up much without Vina. Defensively, they will probably miss his ability to turn the pivot. However, this could be a great opportunity for Infante to prove himself. He’ll be able to play regularly, and he’ll team with Guillen in the middle of the diamond.

Jason Smith will take Vina’s place on the roster. To add him to the 40 man, Lino Urdaneta was placed on the 60 day DL.

…Also, news out of Erie isn’t good for Rob Henkel. It looks like he’ll be shut down for the season with shoulder surgery.

…David Espinosa has made Baseball America’s Prospect Hot Sheet for his hot start.

…Juan Tejada hit his third homer in two nights for Erie. He leads the Seawolves with 9.

I had the pleasure of attending last night’s game. No, I didn’t stay for the whole thing. I made it through 12 and a half innings before calling it a night. It was a beautiful night to be at a game, and the Tigers put up a good effort. In particular the bullpen really stepped up. While they’ve been a frequent target of mine for poor performance. As a group they did a tremendous job last night. Most impressive was Steve Colyer, who has struggled mightily this year.

Sanchez was his usual frustrating self. I loved the bunt hits, and getting all the way to third in the first inning. He also made some nice plays tracking down balls over his head. However, why in the 5th inning did he stop running between 2nd and 3rd? Being at the game, I didn’t get to see replays or hear analysis. Just a mind boggling play, which is what I expect from Sanchez.

Knotts to get start
Not surprisingly, the Tigers didn’t elect to stick with a 4 man rotation. (I’d be surprised if they even considered it) Instead, Gary Knotts will get the start on Friday. Knotts biggest problem last year was consistency. At times he’d look great, other times miserable. Trammell hasn’t committed to keeping him in the rotation, so Knotts will be making a pitch to make another start.

The Tigers AA affiliate has taken a more aggressive (mini-reg required) hitting approach. The suprising result is that they are also drawing more walks.

Also, apparently this is new for the Tiger farm system:

Last Friday I took a brief look at how some of the system’s top position prospects were performing. After the debacle on Saturday, it only seems appropriate to try and find some pitching hope. This list is in no ways comprehensive, and I’ll try to focus more on “prospects” so don’t expect to read about Pat Ahearne. So, in no particular order:

Franklyn German: German is off to a strong start at Toledo. On the season he’s made 12 apperance and pitched 13 1/3 innings. He has 15 strikeouts against 5 walks. That’s a few more walks than I’d like to see given his past control issues. The good news is he’s only allowed one run.

Rob Henkel: Henkel has only managed three starts this year due to shoulder soreness. He may need to go on the disabled list again. When not injured, he hasn’t been dominating. He’s had 10K’s, 8BB’s and 14 hits in 15 1/3 innings.

Kenny Baugh: Baugh is off to a strong start. Despite being 1-3 he has a 3.86 ERA. Most impressive is his 27/6 strike out to walk ratio in 28 innings. Last year Baugh was trying to regain arm strengh. Hopefully he is back to pre-surgery form. These numbers are very encouraging and it’s a possibility he will spend some time with the Tigers this year.

Wil Ledezma and Matt Roney: I’m not sure if they are prospects or not anymore because they’ve already spent a full season in the majors. However, both are pitching well for Erie. Both have 3 wins and an ERAs in the low 3’s. Ledezma has 29 strikeouts, but also 12 walks in 31 innings of work. Roney is 22/6 in 26 innings.

Felix Sanchez: Acquired for Jon Connolly, Sanchez was rocked in his first outing. With only 3 relief apperances, there isn’t much to say at this point.

Kyle Sleeth: After a rough debut, Sleeth has been pitching the way everybody thought/hoped he would. For the season he has 34 K’s and 8 walks in 38 innings. His ERA is 2.84. He gave up 4 earned runs in his first start, and only 8 over the next 5 starts. If he can stay healthy, he will move up quickly.

Joel Zumaya: Zumaya has had some struggles. He’s still striking guys out (27 in 32 innings). However control has been a problem and he’s walked 19.

Humberto Sanchez Sanchez’s numbers are almost identical to Sleeth’s, but they’re better. Thirty-four K’s and eight walks are identical to Sleeth. Sanchez has allowed two more hits than Sleeth. However, he’s allowed 3 fewer homers. Oh, and he doesn’t turn 21 until the end of the month.

With the Tigers having an off day yesterday, I thought I’d take the chance to peruse the Tiger farm system. The following are just some brief capsules on various Tiger prospect’s performance.

Curtis Granderson Granderson has been solid in his first month at AA Erie. He’s hitting .274/.390/.420 with 13 RBI’s and 2 HR’s. The OBP looks real good, but the slugging is a tad low. He also hasn’t made an error through 24 games.

David Espinosa Espinosa was a first round pick of the Reds at one time. He was drafted as a shortstop, but has since moved to the outfield. His performance in the past has been forgettable. However, he’s had a strong spring hitting .341/.432/.610 with 5 dingers. He’s also stolen 5 bases. While he’d pretty much lost his prospect status, he could regain it if he continues to perform well. He’s only 22 and performing well at AA.

Donald Kelly Whle not really considered a prospect, Kelly’s ability to get on base at a .400 clip in Lakeland last year earned him a promotion to AA, and a spot on the Tigers 40 man roster. While he’s accumlated 13 walks and a .353 OBP, he’s only hitting .215 with no power. He’s also committed 7 errors at shortstop.

Brent Clevlen The .306 average and .370 OBA are promising in Clevlen’s first season at high A. However, Clevlen hasn’t been hitting for power, he’s only slugging .361. Also, he’s striking out about once every 3 at-bats.

Mike Rabelo Believe it or not the Tigers have a catcher in the minors who is doing well. True he’s 24 and only in A ball, but at least he’s succeeding. He’s hitting .325 with a .388 OBA.

Scott Moore Moore is posting a whopping .418 OBA mostly on the strength of 18 walks. He’s only hitting .240, but he has hit 3 homers. The bad part is he only has 5 extra base hits total.

Tony Giarratano Tony is picking up right where he left off at Oneonta last season. He’s hitting a .303 clip and he has 5 stolen bases. He has however committed 6 errors at shortstop already.

Kody Kirkland Unfortunately, Kirkland wasn’t able to pick up where he left off at Oneonta last year. He’s struggling mightily at West Michigan where he’s hitting .160/.209/.247. His K/BB rate is 26/3 and things just aren’t looking good.

I remember hearing Jack Morris talking about saying this back in the 80’s to his teammates. Given the recent performance of the Tigers pitching staff, the starters might have to ask for 15 runs. The starters have been inconsistent, the bullpen has been rocked, and there’s really nothing nice to say about anyone right now. The starters aren’t working deep into games. The long relievers Yan and Knotts are getting hit hard. The set up guys Patterson and Levine are getting hammered. And the lefty arms have struggled as well.

So what can the Tigers do? Well Nate Cornejo has had a sore shoulder and knee for a month and didn’t tell anybody. Now he’s out of the rotation and on the DL. That leaves the team with 4 starters. Because of off days, they can get by with a 4 man rotation for the next week and a half. Then what happens? I have this feeling that Cornejo will need significant time to strengthen the arm so I’m treating him as unavailable. That leaves the Tigers with essentially 3 options.

1. Call up a long arm/starter from the minors. Pat Ahearne would be the most likely candidate. He’s pitched fairly well at Toledo with a 2.64 ERA and a 33/5 K/BB ratio. Other options include Shane Loux, or reaching down to Erie and pulling up one of last year’s rule 5’ers (Ledezma and Roney).

2. Trade for a starter. The problem is who? Teams aren’t looking to dump pitchers of quality at this point in the season, and the price would probably be prospects. Prospects are in limited supply in the Tigers organization making a trade difficult to complete.

Kris Benson has been mentioned often on message boards as a guy that could be acquired. He’s making a boatload of money this year (6.1 million) that the Pirates would love to dump. The problem with Kris Benson is that he’s not that good. Actually, I’ll restate that, “He hasn’t been that good since 2000.” In limited duty the last two years he’s been essentially a replacement level player. His EqERA the last two years was 5.60 and 5.58. A replacement level player can be had for about $5.7 million less then what you’d have to pay Benson.

3. Use a 4 man rotation. The Tigers are having a tough time trying to find 4 quality starters. Why would they want to try to find a 5th? My only concern with this would be the increased overall workload on Bonderman. Johnson and Maroth are old enough that I’d be less concerned with their arms. If you get into situations with double headers or you want to space out Bonderman, then there enough long relief guys to spot start someone.

If it were up to me (and there are approximately 487 reasons why it’s a good thing I don’t have any authority), this is the option I would go with. Then again if it were entirely up to me I would call up Wil Ledezma as my long man/spot starter. He can take Gary Knotts place. I also would have called up Franklyn German instead of Chris Dingman. Dingman has given up 4 homers in 10 innings of work.

With all that being said, the Tigers pitching will get better. They will not continue to give up 10 runs a game like they have for the last week. However, changes need to be made and made quickly.

Writing a month in review column was something I started doing last year. Needless to say, this is the first month I’ve been able to do this when the Tigers have posted a winning record.
Comings, Goings, and Doctor Appointments
Prior to the season, the Tigers dealt Cody Ross to the Dodgers for Steve Colyer to bolster their bullpen. Mike DiFelice was also released, and then resigned to a minor league contract. The last semi significant transaction was that Andres Torres was DFA’d. He cleared waivers, but chose to sign a minor league deal with the White Sox instead of returning to Toledo.

The Tigers had their share of ailments, big and small. The biggest blow came in their 10th inning of the season when Dmitri Young broke his leg in Toronto. He’ll be on the shelf for at least another 2-3 weeks. The Tigers also lost Fernando Rodney for the year when he underwent Tommy John surgery. Aside from that the Tigers lost Alex Sanchez for a week due to a groin injury and the flu. They also lost Higginson for a couple days to the flu and a turned ankle.

By the Numbers

The Tiger offense was a dominant force, showing an ability to score piles of runs consistently. They scored 5 or more runs in 15 of their 23 April games. They finished just a shade behind Minnesota in runs scored per game for the month. The Tiger offense also ranked in the top half in on base average and batting average. The main reason for their success was their performance with runners in scoring position. With RISP the batting average jumped to .321 and the Tigers .907 OPS led the league. Remarkably, the Tigers have maintained this offensive output without Dmitri Young.

The pitching staff didn’t fare nearly as well. They rank in the bottom third in most categories. The starters and bullpen have been inconsistent. An interesting stat twist is that the Tigers pitchers have the highest ground ball to fly ball ratio, but have allowed the most home runs. The home run number is especially troubling given Comerica’s dimensions.

The good news for the pitching staff is that they ranked dead last in strike outs last year. This year they rank 5th. Also, there have been several strong bullpen performances that included 2 four inning saves.

Who’s hot
Newcomers Rondell White, Ivan Rodriguez, and Carlos Guillen have all exceeded expectations. The three are hitting a combined .324/.396/.490 and Rondell White led the AL in RBI’s.

But if you want to talk about really exceeding expectations look at Brandon Inge managed to do. His month included a 10 game hit streak from the 9 spot in the order. He hit .333/.410/.574 with 3 home runs (two of them Grand Slams). In addition to the offensive surge, he managed to play competently at centerfield, catcher, and third base.

Despite getting shelled in his last start, Nate Robertson was pretty darn good as the 5th starter. Mike Maroth went from losing 5 games in April last year to posting a 3-1 record on a 3.58 ERA while leading the staff in innings.

Who’s Not
I know Greg Norton hit a home run today, but he was miserable during April going 3 for 29 with 9 strike outs. Alex Sanchez hit .324 for the month, but he’s listed here because despite being a leadoff hitter, he failed to take a walk in 72 plate apperances.

The majority of the pitching staff falls under this category. They haven’t all been bad the whole month, and there have been some great performances by most of the staff. However, there have been a number of really poor performances as well. I think the overall staff numbers/rankings bear that out. Particularly bad was Gary Knotts. In 11 1/3 innings he surrendered 15 hits, 11 walks, and 3 home runs. Nate Cornejo also was knocked around consistently and posted an 8.44 ERA.

Lowlight of the Month
I think this would have to be Dmitri Young’s injury in game 2. Despite the fact the Tigers offense has continued to hum along, it has forced Trammell to play Rondell White and Pudge Rodriguez more than he’d probably like to.

Highlight of the Month
It’s nice to have some options for this topic for a change. I could choose White’s walk-off homer, the 11 run 6th inning against Cleveland, or the inspiring home opener win. However, I’m going with the opening day shut out of Toronto. Despite the fact that Toronto hasn’t played well this season, the Tigers went in an shut down what should be a good hitting club. What’s more is that they piled runs on a traditional nemesis in Roy Halladay. The way they won that game seemed to propel them off to this great start in April.

Looking Ahead
In May the Tigers play 20 games against AL West opponents and they make two trips to the west coast. They finish the month with 4 games against Baltimore and 4 games against struggling division rival Kansas City.

The combination of Pudge, a winning April, and the promise of All Star tickets amounted to a significant increase in attendance for the Tigers. For the 13 April home dates 255,397 fans came out to Comerica. That’s an average attendance of 19,646. Last year the Tigers averaged 15,886 in their 9 home dates during April. In 2002 they averaged 16,889 in April. Given that April and May are historically tough months for the Tigers to draw crowds, this is a very positive sign.

Trying to project it out over the course of a season, a straight multiplication would give a final attendance of 1.6 million. However, due to the month to month variation in attendance, I took a look at how much of the yearly attendance comes from the month of April. Since 2003 was bad for a lot of reasons, I took a look at 2002. Looking back two years gives another advantage because the Tigers played the same number of games in April 2002 as they did in April 2004. In 2002, April accounted for 15% of the yearly attendance. Extrapolating based on 2002 would yield an annual attendance of 1.75 million.

Of course future attendance will depend on the Tigers ability to remain relevant. Despite ending the month with back to back losses, the Tigers still finished with a winning record. As further prove of the Tigers increasing stature, last Saturday the Tigers drew 21,000 against Cleveland. What made it remarkable is that the Red Wings and Pistons were both playing home playoff games, and the Lions draft party was occuring at the same time.