Rodney to be Tommy John’d
I know this is old news at this point, but Fernando Rodney is out for the year. After originally being diagnosed with a sprained ligament in the spring, the Tigers medical staff hoped things would work out with rehab. Unfortunately the pain persisted and he was sent for a consult to Dr. James Andrews who deemed Tommy John surgery to be necessary.

This could be a big blow to Rodney’s career. While pitchers return from Tommy John surgery and regain their old form, Rodney was already on the old side of being a prospect. He turned 27 this year, and now he’s missing a full season of activity.

This makes the Ugueth Urbina signing even more attractive. While is was widely believed that the Tigers would look to deal Urbina come the trade deadline, that becomes less likely without another closer on the horizon.

I’d imagine that Rodney will be moved from the 15 day DL to the 60 day DL which would allow the Tigers to add another player to the 40 man roster.

Tigers trade Jon Connolly
In a classic Dave Dombrowski trade, the Tigers a hard throwing lefty. Baseball America has this to say about Felix Sanchez:

Despite Connolly’s sub 2 ERA last year, nobody was really sold on his status as a prospect. He throws soft, and his biggest strengths are his change up and pinpoint control. He also didn’t strike out many guys at West Michigan last year.

The Tigers also included a PTBNL in the deal.

I have no strong feelings one way or the other on this deal. While Connolly’s performance last year was very impressive, I don’t know how sustainable it would be at higher levels and he’s probably still 2-3 years away from the majors (if he makes it that far). Sanchez is closer to being a big leaguer, in fact he had a cup of coffee with the Cubs last year. However, he has control issues and he doesn’t have an overwhelming strike out rate.

Sanchez was assigned to Erie and placed on the 40 man roster. I’m not sure if there was a spot open, but I can’t seem to find who was taken off to make room.

Tigers get thumped
I didn’t see the game, but caught the majority on the radio and it didn’t sound pretty. The 8 run fourth sounded like it was set up with fielding gaffes and bad bounces. Despite that, there were still a ton of hits that inning as well.

The Tigers will welcome in Seattle to close out the month. Tomorrow morning I’ll have a month in review post similar to what I did last year. I’ll follow the same format, except that I’ll be writing about a winning Tiger team for the first time!

Pat Caputo has an interesting article about Brandon Inge today. According to the article, Brandon Inge once upon a time hit the ball hard. Then Phil Garner told him to change his swing.

The Hardball Times have posted their first cut of pitching statistics now as well. Their pitching stats include runs saved above average (RSAA), fielding independent pitching (FIP), defensive efficiency ratio (DER), and line drive percentage. The stats are through the 4/26 games.

Like I did with the offensive stats, here’s what I found interesting in these stats:
1. A couple days ago I wrote that I thought Nate Cornejo wasn’t pitching as badly as his ERA would indicate, and that he was the victim of some bad luck. Well, Nate’s DER (which is the percentage of balls in play that the defense converts to outs) is .587, which is significantly lower than the rest of the team. Given that the rest of the pitchers have the same defense behind them, you’d expect that the numbers woudl be similar.

What could cause this? Maybe the balls in play that Cornejo allows are tougher to field than his counterparts, maybe he’s giving up more line drives. If you look at line drive percentage, he actually has the lowest LD rate of all the starters at .125. The next lowest is Mike Maroth at .149. Even stud in the making Nate Robertson’s LD% is 40% higher than Cornejo’s. It would seem that line drives would have a greater chance of success (for the batter) than ground balls or fly balls. So it doesn’t appear that Cornejo is giving up more “un-fieldable” balls than his pitching teammates.

Finally, Nate’s FIP (as defined by THT “Essentially the proportion of ERA that can be directly attributed to the pitcher. The formula is (13xHR + 3xBB – 2xK)/IP. It works like DIPS ERA, so if you add 3.20 to FIP, you’ll get an approximation of what the pitcher’s ERA would be with an “average” defense behind him.”) is 2.08. Adding that to 3.20 gives an estimated ERA of 5.28. While that’s not a good ERA by any stretch of the imagination, it is a far cry from the run an inning ERA he had going into last night’s game What the 2.08 does suggest is that his increased home run and walk rate have negated (and exceeded) the effect of his increased strike out rate.

In the end, Nate hasn’t been pitching as good as last year, but not as bad as his primary stats would indicate either.

2. The bullpen has command issues. Gary Knotts is allowing 12.2 BB/9, Steve Colyer is allowing 6.8 BB/9, Uribina is allowing 9 BB/9, and Esteban yan is allowing 6.4 BB/9. Those numbers for Knotts and Colyer combine with high home run rates (2.7 for Knotts, and 2.3 for Colyer) to paint a pretty unflattering picture.

3. Bonderman has struggled, but it could be worse. His 9.6 K/9 is great. However, the 2.1 HR/9 is pretty poor. Also, he has the second higher LD % allowed on the team at .220 (Colyer is .280). Despite a high LD %, his DER is actually quite good at .724. So despite allowing a lot of line drives, overall his defense is turning balls in play into outs at a good clip.

The Hardball Times has posted their first page of statistics. So far it’s just offensive stats, but they aren’t posting basic stats. They have runs created (which I used extensively in my season preview), pitches per plate apperance, batting average with runners in scoring position, and line drive percentage.

A couple interesting notes while looking at my Tigers:
1. Six different Tigers have batting averages over .400 with runners in scoring position (and Vina is at .353) which goes along ways toward explaining why the Tigers are leading the league in scoring.
2. The much maligned (by me anyways) Greg Norton is leading the team in pitches per plate appearance at 4.72. So despite his proliferation of outs, he is having extended ABs and making the pitcher work.
3. Carlos Guillen, Rondell White, and Bobby Higginson are the top 3 Tigers in line drive percentage

Reader Mark Auman sent me a note last Tuesday following the Tigers 10-4 win over the Indians. Despite splitting the series with Cleveland, the Tigers were struggling. Here is what Mark pointed out:

Since the last game in Minnesota, the Tigers pitchers have been doing better only allowing 12 runs in the last 4 games. I took a look at how the Tigers fared on these three items during that stretch
1. GET THE LEADOFF MAN OUT: The Tigers allowed the leadoff man to reach base in 13 of the last 36 innings, which is 36% of the time. This is a modest improvement over the 43% they were allowing.
2. DON’T PUT THE NO. 9 GUY ON BASE: In the last 4 games the 9 hitter has gone 3 for 12 with one walk, one sacrifice and only scored one run.
2. DON’T PUT THE NO. 1 GUY ON BASE: In the last 4 games the number 1 hitter has gone 4-16 with one walk, and only one run scored.

The Tigers improved in their performance on all three measures. Now the question becomes are these three items indicators of success or failure? Or did the Tigers just perform better in general. I didn’t check to see how the other hitters in the lineup compared between the two time periods, so I don’t know if the overall performance was better (I’d imagine it was). In my mind, I’d guess that item 1 would probably have the biggest impact, however that item had the smallest improvement of the three. Most disturbing was probably the 9 hitter getting on base over half the time.

That pesky work took me out of town and has kept me pretty busy. Fortunately, the crunch has passed and I can focus some more effort on this blog and my AL leading run scoring Tigers.

-I’m finding that the play of the Tigers has an impact on my mood each day. After so much losing the past few seasons, I got good at shrugging of losses and downplaying wins. This year I’m getting a charge out of each win. It puts an extra hop in my step. Each loss, I’m pretty disappointed. Either way, the feelings last more than just a few minutes after the game.

-Brandon Inge, who knew. Tonight he had a huge inning that included a triple and his first career grand slam. Thirty-six at-bats is a minute sample, but I’m happy to see Brandon playing well. Plus, a player that can fill in competently at centerfield, catcher, and third base is valuable to most any team.

-Jason Johnson had another short outing only lasting 5 innings. He got little support from the pen as both runners he left behing scored. One of the knocks on Johnson has been his endurance. This has often been tied to his diabetes. However, for his career he’s averaging 17.2 pitches per inning pitched which will cut quite a few outings short. In his last start he threw 106 pitches to 24 batters.

-Despite dropping a few games, the Tigers are continuing to garner national interest. ESPN2 has added the April 28th game against Anaheim to their schedule.

-Congratulations to Brian and Tigerblog for all the attention he’s receiving for his 1984 diary. It was mentioned in Eric Neels’ Page 2 article.

Nate has made three starts this year. The first he pitched well enough to pick up the win. The next two starts were atrocious. Cornejo’s ERA is currently sitting at 9.73 and he’s allowed 36 baserunners in 16 1/3 innings. Last year Cornejo was fairly effective despite a cosmically low strike out rate. I decided to take a look at some of his rate stats this year, and see how they’ve changed.

The good news is Cornejo has doubled his strike out rate. The bad news is he has doubled his home run rate, and increased his walk rate as well. The number that really gets Nate into trouble though is his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). When hitters aren’t strking out, hitting homers, or walking, they are dropping hits on Nate at a Ted Williams-ish rate. The result is 17 runs in three appearances.

The good news is that there is a whole school of thought out there that would theorize that Cornejo has actually been unlucky and not just bad. There has been some extensive analysis performed by people way smarter than me, that shows that pitchers have limited to no ability in preventing hits on balls in play. That being said, given that Cornejo has been unlucky so far it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect a regression to the mean over time.

Last year the Tigers were pretty close to an average defense in terms of allowing hits on balls in play. The league average was .291 and the Tigers average was .296. Nate Cornejo’s average was .303 which was slightly higher than the Tigers average, but not significantly so. While I haven’t been able to dig up similar stats yet this year, one would expect league numbers in the same range, and there is a widely held belief the Tigers are better defensive this year than last year (which probably is justified). If that’s the case, one would expect Nate’s current .412 number to start to approach something in the .290’s to low .300’s.

As further proof that these numbers can fluctuate, Cornejo had a similar “slump” last year when he had a month and a half of starts where his BABIP was .400.

However, Nate had one other thing working for him last year. He had a high double play rate. The league average was a double play in about 13% of opportunities. Cornejo’s rate was 19.3%. Given the large number of opportunities last year, that equates to 11 more double plays than would be expected. Given the limited ability pitchers have in turning balls in play into single outs, I’d expect that pitchers exert even less control on turning balls in play into two outs.

So what does all this mean? My take is that things will get better for Cornejo this year. The fact he has double his strike out rate will be a benefit if he can sustain it because those are fewer outs that are left to chance. However, the increased walk and home run rates will quickly offset this. His ground ball to fly ball ratio hasn’t changed significantly (1.7 last year, 1.6 this year) so I doubt he is pitching that differently. Based on what we know so far, it’s too early to worry about Cornejo. But, I will be keeping an eye on these rate stats.

The first 6 Tiger hitters reached base off of Jeff D’amico, scoring 4 times. Then the hail started to fall. Then in came Jake Westbrook who retired the next 21 Tigers on all of 82 pitches. Fortunately, Eric Wedge pulled him and the Tigers piled 6 runs on the Indians bullpen. For the Tigers, Nate Robertson had another strong outing. He scattered 5 hits and 4 walks over 6 2/3 innings while striking out 8. The walks are a bit concerning, but the other numbers look pretty impressive. Unfortunately Nate left with a two run lead which was surrenedered on two Jamie Walker pitches.

Once again, the bullpen fails to hold a lead. Their collective ERA is 4.84, which isn’t too bad. However, if you remove Nate Robertson’s 4 inning relieft stint it balloons upto 5.31. What’s more, this doesn’t include the inherited runners that were allowed to score (which I don’t happen to have at this point). I’m confident that once Urbina is all the way back, he’ll be able to effectively close games. What concerns me is that who is going to get from the 7th inning to the point Urbina can close? Is it time to recall Chris Mears or Franklyn German? And is there a lefty that can get people out? Walker was decent last year, so you’d expect him to improve. And what happens when the next Tiger starter gets shelled, and they need someone to pick up 3-4 innings? Gary Knotts is the guy know, but he’s been hit hard as well. Should the Tigers take a look at Pat Ahearne or Ariel Prieto? If the Tigers pen struggles in Minnesota, I’d expect we’ll see one of two roster moves.

Now that the bullpen has been addressed, the other issue is our rapidly shrinking outfield. Bobby Higginson apparently turned an ankle last night, and Alex Sanchez has a pulled groin. We know 2 things about Bobby and injuries. First, the guy will play in pain. Second, he’s a slow healer. In any case, he’ll probably miss a couple games. That leaves an outfield of Rondell White (good), Craig Monroe (can be good, but is struggling), and Brandon Inge (playing well, but…). The bigger issue is the cascade effect. First of all, White will be forced to play in the field for 3 games on turf, something Trammell wanted to avoid. Second, with Inge playing center that means fewer nights rest for Pudge. Third, who is going to DH? Norton? Shelton? What will probably happen is Munson will get a couple games at DH, and Infante/Norton will pick up third base.

Miscellaneous Tiger factoids:
-Lead off hitter Alex Sanchez now has 42 plate apperances without a walk. Fortunately he’s batting .300, unfortunately his OBA is .300.
-Equally concerning is that Eric Munson doesn’t have a walk this season in 30 plate appearances. Last year Munson had about one walk for every ten PA’s. He was averaging 3.7 pitches per at-bat last year, and only 3.03 this year. While his slugging and batting average are up, his OBA is .267.
-The Tigers have now gone 50 innings and 5 1/2 games without a home run. The last dinger was Carlos Pena off of Johan Santana in the 4th inning on April 10th
-Tiger pitching is last in the American League in WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched).
-Fortuately the Tigers are striking out more opposing batters this year. After finishing dead last last year, they are tied for 6th in the American league this year. That is probably what is helping to keep all of those baserunners from turning into runs.

Game Notes:
Mike Maroth turned in exactly what the Tigers needed, a solid outing. He lasted into the eighth inning only allowing one run. He was faced with several jams, and managed to pitch out of them thanks to 7 strike outs and a 1-6-2 double play. Amazingly, the Tigers held Jody Gerut to one hit yesterday, which means he’s only hitting .600 against the Tigers this year. Jeremy Bonderman takes the mound today to try and make it two in a row.

Also, if you’re looking for a good Indians blog, may I recommend the Cleveland Indians Report.

Okay, losing 11-0 to Roy Halladay and the Blue Jays isn’t fun. Following it up with a 10-3 to the Indians is miserable. Cornejo was rocked, and the bullpen contributed some runs to the pummeling as well. With the loss, the Tigers moved into a 3 way tie for the lead in the AL Central. They’ve now been outscored by their opponents for the season.

This is where the Tigers need to step up and show they are a better team. Mike Maroth gets the start today, and the Tigers need a starter to get deeper into a game than the 5th inning because the bullpen has been used a lot, and gotten hit a lot.

Other Notes
-Lead off hitter Alex Sanchez now has 36 plate apperances and no walks
-Shelton got the start at DH and went 0-4
-Urbina made his first appearance and allowed all three inherited runners to score

It looked like it might be a tough day against Halladay when the Tigers burned through 6 outs on only 14 pitches. Halladay went on to pitch an eight shut out. The only time the Tigers threatened was in the 5th inning. Trailing 3-0 they managed to load the bases before Brandon Inge, filling in for the resting Rodgriguez grounded into a double play to end the inning. Should Trammell have pinch hit Rodriguez at that point? Probably. But given that the Jays scored 11 runs in the game, I doubt it would have made much of a difference. And just to illustrate how much of a “threat” that inning was, Halladay still managed to get out of the inning in only 15 pitches.

Jason Johnson had to leave another game early due to blister problems. He pitched 4 innings and allowed 3 runs before giving way to Gary Knotts. Trammell has said that the 5th starting spot doesn’t belong to Robertson yet, and that Knotts still may have opportunities. However, after yesterday’s outing in which Knotts allowed 5 runs and 5 walks in two and a third innings, Robertson has to feel better about his chances.

Quick Hits:
-Greg Norton is on a roll. After finally not making an out on Wednesday night (he walked), he picked up his first hit on Thursday
-Chris Shelton finally saw his first game action. Nothing like making your debut against a Cy Young winner who’s pitching a hell of a game. He’s now 0-2 with a GIDP.
-In five innings the bullpen walked eight batters
-And the Tigers are no longer the most exciting story in baseball. I think that goes to Florida who in 9 games have only given up 13 runs.

ESPN.com has their entire staff weighing in on the Tigers. First, the Tigers moved into the top 10 in their power rankings.

Next Rob Neyer takes a look at how rare it is for a really, really bad team to start off hot the next year.

Finally, Peter Gammons weighs in on the hot starts by some perenially bad teams (Detroit, Pitt., Milwaukee)