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Are Tiger hitters more patient this year, or just better?

After watching the Tigers make Pat Hentgen throw 74 pitches in only 3 innings last night, I was prepared to write a piece showing how the Tigers offensive success this season could be attributed to the fact they are a more disciplined team at the plate. Through the first 7 games, the starter against the Tigers has only lasted into the 7th inning one time. At first glance it seemed the Tigers this year were practicing the approach of making the starter work hard to get to the bullpen sooner. As is often the method for this blog, I make observations watching the games, and then dig up the stats to support the observation.

I went to the game logs for the first 7 games of this year and last year. I know that 7 games is too small a sample, but they’ve only played 7 this year, and doing the whole season last year would have taken me far too long. Here are the results:

As you can see, opposing starters are throwing the same number of pitches per start, but they are going an inning and a half less than last year. However, if you compare the pitches per batter faced, the numbers are virtually identical. Which indicates that this years Tigers aren’t more patient than last years Tigers – at least through the first 7 games of each season. The difference is, that this year’s Tigers are much better at not making outs.

Also, I took at look at extended at-bats, or AB’s that went 8 pitches or more. Through 7 games, this year’s team only has one more than last year.

So what do we make of this? As much as I wanted to attribute the increased offensive production to some systematic changes in plate discipline and batting approach, the data just does not show it. It simply comes down to the fact that this lineup is substantially better than last years, which is a big “Duh!” Also, it calls into question the value of plate discipline. I’m not going to make any conclusions based on a 7 game sample size of one team, but the offense is generating 383% more runs while seeing the same number of pitches.

Quick Hits:
-Bonderman had another strong outing with 6IP, 7K, 1BB, 3ER’s.
-The Tigers defense collapsed last night. It had to happen at some point. The two unearned runs allowed last night, were the first allowed all season
-The Tigers finally return to TV tonight. Coincidentally I’m going to the game
-Is the buzz over for the Tigers? Last night’s attendance was 8804.

Quick hits on your 5-1 Tigers

Work will keep me really busy for the next week or so. As a result, my posts will be shorter, and lighter on the numbers and research than typical. With that, here are my impressions of the weekend games with the Twins as seen on, well not seen at all….

-Despite losing the day before, the Tigers managed to bounce back with a win. A nice improvement over last year.
-Even on Saturday, despite being down six runs early, the Tigers fought back with 5 runs of their own before the Twins bullpen slammed the door. I love seeing that fight in the team, and knowing that the team can still come back if they fall behind early.
-In what has becoming a running item…Greg Norton…Why? He’s 0-10 now with 5 strike outs and two GIDP’s. Although he did make a nice play at third yesterday.
-The bullpen looked really bad this weekend. (like I said, no time for stats, just opinions)
-Mike Maroth actually pitched a pretty good, efficient game yesterday. When he left he’d only allowed one run, but the bullpen allowed its two inherited runs to cross as well. He made it through the first six innings on 81 pitches striking out 5 and walking one. That’s a solid outing.
-Tiger hitters, even while not scoring, are forcing pitchers to work. Craig Monroe’s game winning hit came on an 8 pitch at-bat yesterday. And as Aaron Gleeman points out 11 times yesterday Tiger hitters had two strikes on them. Instead of going quietly, the Tigers forced Santana to throw an additional 32 pitches once they already had two strikes. While the Twins bullpen stepped up on Saturday and Sunday, it was nice to see the Tigers burning through the starters in the 6th inning each day.
-Being forced to listen to the Tigers this weekend, you ever notice that Jim Price always steps on Dickerson’s play-by-play with things like “Oh no” in the middle of the call. Mr. Price, let the play-by-play man make his call and the comment.

And just when you want to watch the Tigers…

You can’t. As has been well covered by now, 10 of the Tigers 23 games in April aren’t on TV. Things don’t get much better in May when two entire series against AL West teams Anaheim and Oakland aren’t televised.

Part of the problem is that the Tigers two broadcast partners, UPN 50 and Fox Sports Net also have commitments to the Red Wings and Pistons. Plus, UPN dropped its commitment from 40 games to 26. The Tigers and their dormant (until this season) fan base really only have themselves to blame. Because of the lack of interest in recent years, it’s easier for UPN to just not air the games. That said, it is a major disappointment that now that the Tigers are creating buzz, there is no way to see the games. Unfortunately, with the black out rules, even subscribers to MLB’s Extra Innings package are in no better shape. Tiger fans only hope is that the team continues to play well, and ESPN picks up some additional games.

Tigers move to 4-0, magic number is 157

Are you in? Are they for real, or is this just a 4 game win streak? Regardless, it’s fun to say the Tigers are on a 4 game win streak. The fact that the streak is coming at the beginning at the season, as opposed to sometime in July when they are 20 games under .500 just makes it sweeter. As for me, I’m still on the fence. Four games is just too small of a sample to make any definitive conclusions, so I’m just going to enjoy the 4 wins for what they are- 4 wins.

I’ll have a link to a longer post about opening day later today. It will be appearing on baseballmusings.com and I’ll link to it once it’s up.
UPDATE My opening day post is up at BaseballMusings.com now. Here is the link.

Notes from the game:
-Nate Cornejo’s strike out rate is skyrocketing. Four K’s in seven innings (5.13K/9IP) is a dramatic improvement over last year’s comically low 2.13K/9IP
-Scariest moment: Carlos Guillen taking the foul ball of his leg. Glad he’s okay because I’m expecting big things from Guillen this year
-Redemption moment: Bobby Higginson working to redeem himself with 4 RBI’s and getting a standing ovation from the fans in right field.
-Where is Chris Shelton? Once again Greg Norton got the call in late pinch hitting duties. He’s now 0-6 with 4 strike outs and a GIDP. I know that 6AB’s is prett small to form an opinion on, but aren’t pinch hitting experts supposed to thrive in small samples? What else is there to judge them on?

Tigers sweep Jays-set stage for home opener

The Tigers pulled off the improbable and swept the Blue Jays on the road to start the season. After falling behind on a 3 run homer by Carlos Delgado, the Tigers came back with a 3-run shot of their own by Munson. Jeremy Bonderman settled down and pitched outstanding for the next 4 1/3 innings. Well, I think he pitched outstanding from what I could tell with K after K on gamecast. No local TV so I couldn’t see it myself. Bonderman struck out 8 in all before giving way to newcomer Steve Colyer.

Bonderman left early when he took a Vernon Wells line drive in the calf, but should be okay. I’m happy that Tram took him out. Even if he could pitch, you don’t want to see his mechanics get screwed up and risk an arm injury.

So the Tigers are coming home undefeated and people are actually excited about the team. While the Wings in the playoffs are still getting more sports talk attention, the Tigers aren’t a joke this year (at least so far). What’s more is the Tigers are catching their division rival Twins at a time they are beat up. Tori Hunter has a bad hamstring. Johan Santana has forearm spasms. Starting catcher Joe Mauer is on the shelf having his knee scoped, and back-up catcher Matt Lecroy left last night’s game with an oblique strain. Suddenly this looks like a winnable series for the Tigers. Last year the only winnable looking series were against the Devil Rays (and they didn’t even manage to do that).

Last week all I was hoping for from the home opener was that we could make it through the game without a “Let’s Go Red Wings” chant, that the game would be competitive, and there would be no sarcastic applause. What a difference 3 games makes. Now I’m expecting a win.

Other Notes:
-Andres Torres contract was purchased from Toledo to take Dmitri Young’s spot

Tigers win again-but lose Dmitri

Dmitri Young broke his fibula when his foot caught in the turf while avoiding a tag. The initial projection is that he’ll miss 6 weeks. This will probably mean more playing time for Norton, Shelton and Monroe. Trammell wanted to rest Rondell White tomorrow night on the turf. His resting may be DH’ing tomorrow night. Or Pudge could DH so that he wouldn’t have to catch the day after a night game.

Other thougts from tonight:
-Mike Maroth has to be thrilled to get the W tonight after the nightmare that was last year. Even more impressive than Maroth was Nate Robertson. Nate Robertson assumed the role of 4 inning closer and picked up the save. He had 7 K’s in 4 innings against 2 walks and one hit.
-The new guys continue to produce with Guillen hitting a homer and Pudge, White, and Vina all getting two hits
-Small ball wasn’t so effective for the Tigers. Norton missed a hit and run and Vina was cut down. Sanchez was caught stealing, albeit after beating out a bunt single.
-Munson continues to struggle at third making an error. He did recover and threw out Hinske trying to score.
-In 5 at-bats pinch hitting specialist Greg Norton has 4 strike outs. Is anyone else anxious to see Shelton?

It’s only one game, but it’s still a win

If you had told me this morning that the Tigers and Jason Johnson were taking on Roy Halladay and the Blue Jays and the final would be 7-0, I can’t imagine the odds it would take for me to pick the Tigers to win. Roy Halladay owns the Tigers (and many other teams), and Toronto is returning the bulk of a lineup that ranked second in the league in runs scored. Yet Jason Johnson pitched effectively, including pitching out of a lead off triple and shut down the Jays potent offense. Carlos Pena plated the Tigers first run on a solo shot, then newcomers Pudge and Rondell white chipped in a dinger a piece as well.

Now the question is what to make of this win. It’s one game on a 162 game schedule. In that context it means very little. However, for the Tigers this is great building block for the season. Detroit dominated a game they weren’t supposed to even win. This happens sometimes in baseball, but it hasn’t happened to the Tigers for several years. What’s more is that the game illustrated the significance of Detroit’s roster moves. The key contributors were all newcomers-Johnson, Pudge, and White. In addition to bringing their physical tools, the new Tigers will hopefully instill a sense of winning into a clubhouse that hasn’t experienced it in a long time.

I recognize that it is only one win, and the Tigers could lose their next 5 or 6 games like they did in 98, 99, and 2000. Drew Sharp will probably use his column to point out such negative facts. However, Tiger fans know they should embrace each win, no matter how significant or insignificant it may seem at the time.

Other notes and observations:
-A pleasant surprise to see Hall of Famer and Special Assistant to the President Al Kaline in uniform on the bench
-Despite 5 strike outs, the Tigers really worked Halladay in the first two innings forcing 39 pitches. Halladay was quoted:

“They weren’t swinging as much,” Halladay said. “Usually, you can get them first-pitch swinging. They really wouldn’t do that, they made [me] throw a lot of pitches. That was different. The different guys in there were scratching out at-bats and making me work.”

-Every position player played except for Shelton, despite the fact that he could have pinch hit for Pena in the 9th. Do you think the decision to keep Shelton on the roster may have been more Dombrowski’s than Trammell’s?
-The camera showed Maroth in the dugout during the 9th inning. He looked suprisingly on edge given the fact he wasn’t playing and his team was up by 7. I wonder if he’s thinking about tomorrow’s game.
-The Tigers didn’t score their 7th run of the season until their seventh game of the season last year.

Opening Day Lineup-Higgy Eigth

The Tigers Opening Day lineup:
Alex Sanchez
Fernando Vina
Ivan Rodriguez
Dmitri Young
Rondell White
Carlos Pena
Carlos Guillen
Bobby Higginson
Eric Munson

Most surprising is Higgy and Munson batting in the bottom two spots. I guess Trammell did get nervous about batting the three lefties (Pena, Munson, Higginson) in a row. I’d still prefer to see Sanchez batting 9th and the top two spots being held by Guillen and Vina. That said, this lineup should be a lot more fun to watch then last years.

Baseball America – Minor League Notebook

BA touches on a couple Tiger notes

The Tigers made the Cody Ross for Steve Colyer deal for a simple reason today–they want to avoid a repeat of 2003 in Detroit. ‘We like Ross,’ said Steve Boros, a special assistant to GM Dave Dombrowski, ‘but we need to win some in Detroit, and to do that, we needed another lefthander in the bullpen.’ The Tigers sent down Eric Eckenstahler from big league camp and intend to keep lefties such as Rob Henkel, Will Ledezma and Nate Robertson in starting roles. Robertson threw well enough in a big league game Thursday that he may have won the fifth-starter’s job in Detroit, while Henkel and Ledezma will join righties Kenny Baugh, who has touched 91 mph with his fastball this spring, and Preston Larrison in the Double-A Erie rotation. Righthander Kyle Sleeth, the organization’s first-round pick in 2003, will join them later in the year after starting in the warm weather at Class A Lakeland.

From Boros’ comment it appears that Colyer is the centerpiece of the Ross trade. If the PTBNL is just a throw in, then I’m disappointed in this trade. The good news is Baugh has passed 90mph and Sleeth is projected to be in Erie relatively soon.

Tigers set final 25-man roster

Chris Shelton and Omar Infante were awarded the final two spots on the 25 man roster. Mike DiFelice has the option of accepting an assignment to Toledo or becoming a free agent.

I’m quite happy that the Tigers kept Shelton-at least for now-over Mike DiFelice. I don’t know whether or not Shelton will ever amount to anything, but his potential is too much to give up on.

As for Infante making the team as a back-up, I’m not sure it’s the right move for him. While last year was a disaster for him, he’s still just 22. Playing everyday in Toledo might be best for him in the long run.

So now that the opening day roster is set, the next roster moves to speculate are who will be the two players removed when Fernando Rodney and Ugueth Urbina come back.