Minors, Roster Management

Detroit Non Roster Invites

10 Comments

Below is the listing of the Detroit Tigers Non Roster Invitees, including the recently signed Matt Mantei

Pitchers
Tim Crabtree
Chad Durbin
Lee Gardner
Kevin Hodge
Colby Lewis
Matt Mantei
Hector Mercado
Bobby Seay

Catchers
Brian Peterson
Mike Rabelo
Chris Robinson
Danilo Sanchez
Max St. Pierre

Infielders
Mike Hessman
Kevin Hooper
Josh Phelps
Ramon Santiago

Outfielders
Alexis Gomez
Ryan Ludwick
Reggie Taylor

The list is a mix of familiar faces, and decent gambles. Guys like Bobby Seay and Matt Mantei are both low risk options who have had some success in the past. Mantei’s best season was in 2003 with the Diamondbacks when he had a 2.62 ERA and 29 saves. The best days may have past the 33 year old though as ast year he struggled and walked 24 hitters in 26 innings.

Most interesting among the list is Chris Robinson at catcher. Robinson was the Tigers 3rd Round Pick last year. It appears that Robinson will be the only member of last year’s draft class invited to the big league camp, despite struggling offensively at Oneonta (and in 4 games at West Michigan).

spring training, baseball

2005 Season

Warm Tiger Memories

3 Comments

This time of year is always tough for me as a baseball fan. The past two years the Tigers have kept things interesting in January with the signings of Ivan Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez. Miguel Tejada rumors were about the closest that Detroit fans have come to excitement since the winter meetings. Given that, I was trying to muster up some baseball enthusiasm by looking back on my favorite Tiger memories from 2005.

Opening Day

This is an easy one. Opening Day, by virtue of it’s embodiment of the beginning of summer always receives consideration. Even a bad Opening Day is still Opening Day. This year however was a whole lot of fun. On an unseasonably warm day, Dmitri Young went yard 3 times, and Jeremy Bonderman effortlessly demolished the Royals en route to a 11-2 thrashing of the Royals.
Continue reading Warm Tiger Memories →

Trade Rumors

Miguel Tejada Rumors

8 Comments

So an otherwise quite Detroit Tigers offseason became a little more interesting yesterday with a Boston Herald article (via Tiger Tales) that mentions the Tigers were a late comer to the Miguel Tejada sweepstakes.

Then Tom Gage managed to get a “no comment” instead of a denial from Dave Dombrowski about the Tigers interest in Tejada. Gage points out:

Dombrowski didn’t wish to comment about Rodriguez two years ago at the first smattering of smoke that the Tigers might be interested in him.

Dombrowski also wouldn’t comment about Ordonez last year when it was initially learned that the Tigers had expressed interest.

That’s just his way. Cautious to the hilt.

It would be easy for Dombrowski to say the speculation is incorrect, which he’s been known to do when that’s the case . But when it’s not the case, or more specifically not yet the case, Dombrowski envelops himself in secrecy — often in overcast January secrecy.

I think it is pretty clear that there have been talks, the extent of those talks remains to be seen. I’m more inclined to belive in Lee’s guess that the Tigers would be more likely to be part of a mutli player trade than actually snagging Tejada. But like so much Tiger speculation, it is a chance to improve the team, but at an area that isn’t a tremendous need. Tejada would upgrade pretty much any team – Detroit included, but the Tigers have bigger needs.

Tejada doesn’t address the need for starting pitching or a left handed bat. He may however cost both of those as it may require a package of Curtis Granderson, Nate Robertson, and a high end pitching prospect. He does help address the issue of the fragility of the team – he hasn’t missed a game since 2000. And he would be another huge bat in the middle of the order. If Carlos Guillen wasn’t part of the deal, an infield of Guillen, Tejada, Placido Polanco, and Shelton/Pena could arguably be the best in baseball.

In any case – at least there is some of that news that Tiger fans have been pining for.

baseball

Former Tigers, Tiger History

Wrapping up Trammell and the Hall

4 Comments

Baseball Toaster has been conducting a roundtable regarding this year’s Hall of Fame candidates. Part III features a debate about the merits of Alan Trammell, and to a lesser extent Lou Whitaker. These wise and educated men are in agreement that Trammell clearly deserves a spot, going so far as to say:

Maybe I need to do a Lederer campaign [Rich Lederer’s efforts surrounding Bert Blyleven] extolling the virtues of the Tigers double play combo. It’s truly amazing to me on how asleep a majority of the voters could be on these two players, considering their all-time ranking.

There are also charts and numbers and stuff. Definitely it is worth a read, as are the other parts of the discussion.

The last few weeks have had me pondering a Tram campaign. But given the utter lack of support he’s received this year, I fear that it would be a quixotic endeavor. By my highly unscientific and unofficial tally (updated through January 3rd), Trammell will only appear on about 20-30% of the ballots. That’s up from last year’s 17%, but no where near gaining the momentum necessary to make a push for enshrinement.

UPDATE: Repoz of Baseball Primer posted in the comments that he has tallied 64 ballots, and the outlook is even more grim with Trammell’s total at a meager 14%.

detroit tigers

Managing & Strategy, Offense

Batting Around the Order

1 Comment

With the talk of starters yesterday, it got me thinking about potential batting orders. Now the value of setting the order is probably overrated. Aside from putting higher on-base guys at the top of the order, I’m not really sure how much sequencing actually matters. The only other real consideration I see is balancing left handed and right handed bats in the lineup to make late game pitching changes more difficult on the opposing manager.

The Core Lineup

This is my proposal for the most typical lineup, with minimal regard to platoon advantages:

  • Placido Polanco
  • Carlos Guillen
  • Chris Shelton
  • Magglio Ordonez
  • Dmitri Young/Carlos Pena
  • Ivan Rodriguez
  • Craig Monroe
  • Curtis Granderson
  • Brandon Inge

The Tigers are still handicapped by a lack of left handed bats. The top of the order was the hardest for me to resolve. Certainly Curtis Granderson would receive some consideration as a leadoff hitter, and he could conceivable hit a little higher in the middle of the lineup. He’s batting 8th in this version just to best leverage his left-handedness.
Continue reading Batting Around the Order →

Uncategorized

Projected Lineup

9 Comments

Here are the Detroit Tigers starters as projected by ESPN.

C: Ivan Rodriguez
1B: Carlos Pena
2B:  Placido Polanco
SS:  Carlos Guillen
3B:  Brandon Inge
LF:  Craig Monroe
CF:  Nook Logan
RF:  Magglio Ordonez

SP1:  Jeremy Bonderman
SP2:  Kenny Rogers
SP3:  Mike Maroth
SP4:  Nate Robertson
SP5:  Justin Verlander/Wilfredo Ledezma

CL:  Todd Jones

A few comments:

  • While I”m not ready to write off Wil Ledezma based on his struggles last year, I don’t really see a pitching rotation with 4 southpaws
  • Dmitri Young is absent.  I understand the numbers crunch, and the site just listed one player at each position.  However, I don’t see Carlos Pena as the clear cut starter.  Provided Young, Shelton, and Pena all break camp, Pena will definitely get starts at first base.  But everything I’ve heard has Shelton as the starter.  In any case Jim Leyland will have some nice platoon options.  As for Pena versus Shelton defensively, I’m not sure that Pena is really better.
  • Nook Logan does have value on a Major League roster, but I don’t see anyway he should be starting over Curtis Granderson.  The occasional start against left hand pitching and late inning use as a pinch runner /defensive replacement are the best bets for Logan.

baseball

Defense

On Pudge’s Defense

1 Comment

Last year about this time there was a pretty popular post about Pudge Rodriguez’s ability to thwart the running game. Last year, Pudge’s caught stealing numbers have suffered a little bit, but his reputation made him the catcher that was least likely to be run on. He led Major League Baseball with .51 stolen base attempts per nine innings despite throwing out only 29%. This year a slimmer and quicker Rodriguez gunned down 45% of would-be stealers. However, he was no longer the most feared catcher in the game, as 3 other starting catchers had fewer attempts.

Player                  Inn         SBA        SBA/9 Inn      CS%

Yadier Molina         959.1          35           .33         55%
Brad Ausmus          1065.2          57           .48         26%
Joe Mauer             999.2          54           .49         38%
Rod Barajas          1025.1          67           .59         32%
Ivan Rodriguez       1032.2          68           .59         45%

The table shows the catchers who had the fewest attempts per 9 innings. Not included in the table, but right behind Rodriguez was Chris Snyder. What’s interesting is that while the attempts against Pudge increased modestly in 2005, the attempts against the leaders were significantly below Pudge’s leading mark from last year.

So was this a league wide phenomenon? Comparing total attempts the last two years, the difference was only 55 fewer attempts (out of approximately 3000). I’m not sure what caused the shift, but a handful of catchers had the luxury of not being tested nearly as much as in the past.

As for what this means for Pudge, his reputation didn’t loom quite as large. In 2005 opposing managers probably noticed Rodriguez that Rodriguez had slipped in 2004. Will his reputation come back in 2006? He certainly will stand to benefit from having 3 left handers in the rotation, two of which are amongst the best at holding runners. The Tigers should be able to control the running game. The bigger question will be keeping the runners off the bases in the first place.

detroit tigers,ivan rodriguez,baseball

Trade Rumors

Should the Tigers want Koskie?

6 Comments

With the Toronto Blue Jays acquiring Troy Glaus and Lyle Overbay, they now have enough corner infielders to defense a pentagon. Corey Koskie is one of the most likely corner infielders to be traded. It’s been thought that the Tigers need to improve third base and get a left handed bat. Koskie would serve both of those roles, but is it a good idea?

To illustrate, let’s go to the good old fashioned Player A versus Player B

             Player A                       Player B

Age        AVG   OBP    SLG          AVG   OBP    SLG

30         300    377    538          292    393    452
31         277    367    445          251    342    495
32         282    345    417          249    337    398

Player B is Corey Koskie and Player A is Detroit Tiger legend and scapegoat, Bobby Higginson. While the numbers don’t match up exactly, both players appear to suffer a decline in average at age 32/33. While Higginson’s numbers declined more rapidly, the pattern appears to be farily similar. I chose Higginson because he was familiar to Tiger fans, but there are other more telling cases.

Using Baseball Reference, here are the 10 most similar players to Koskie 

958  Chris Sabo
949  Melvin Mora
947  Whitey Kurowski
937  Aaron Boone
934  Torii Hunter 
934  Hank Thompson
932  Dave Hollins
932  Jeffrey Hammonds
927  Ellis Valentine
926  Mike Lowell

While Melvin Mora was definitely a late bloomer who has continued to perform well, the rest of the list isn’t too promising. The combined statistics from Age 33 on for that group are 259/321/417. That isn’t too bad, until you realize that over half of the at-bats accumulated by the group were from Melvin Mora last year. Very few of the group played at all, yet alone significantly after they turned 33. Granted, Torii Hunter, Aaron Boone, and Mike Lowell haven’t reached age 33 yet, but Lowell and Boone have already experienced serious decline.Now none of this means that Koskie won’t be a productive player in the future. He would still provide solid defense, and can still work the count. It’s also likely his thumb injury from last year hampered his offensive performance. If he comes back healthy he could regain his old form. But then again, aren’t Tiger fans already saying that about a couple key contributors?

(Special Thanks to Chris who wrote and raised the question).

detroit tigers,baseball

Uncategorized

DTW Year in Review

2 Comments

The post that was 12 months in the making, and 45 minutes in the writing – the Year in Review. (seriously, there is NO Tiger news to report) As you’ve probably realized if you’ve been reading this site for awhile, I like statistics. With that, let’s take a look back:

  • Posts: 210
  • Words: 103,537(not counting this post)
  • Comments: 1156
  • Interviews: 3
  • Visits: 72,000+
  • Page Views: 100,000+
  • Redesigns: 1

I thought about counting up the graphs and charts, but then I was just too lazy.

The most commented on posts were the Kenny Rogers signing, Ugueth Urbina being traded, and our wild and crazy prediction thread.

I’d like to thank all of you who have been here all year, and everybody else who began reading along the way. Thanks for taking the time to leave comments and get the discussions moving. This year has by far been my most successful year, if you define success as visits and recognition that is. My traffic increased by about 300% this year. All of that increase of course came from you coming back again and again, and telling your friends and thanks for that.

But you had to find this place in the first place, and that was faciliated by a number of people. Sean Baligian gave me several mentions on WDFN, and Mike Wendland wrote about the site in the Free Press. Most of my traffic though came from the generous linking of others. David Pinto, Seth Stohs, Geoff Young, Dave Studeman and so many others helped to drive considerable traffic to this site. There are many, many more who linked to me, and to list them all would take the rest of the day. I’d also like to thank Scott at Motown Sports for the opportunity to write for his site, and at the same time promote mine.

I’d also like to thank Dave Dombrowski, Ernie Harwell, and Dan Dickerson for being so generous in their time and their willingness to participate in interviews. This site is still pretty small in the grand scheme of things, but it is a little bigger with a little more credibility (I think) thanks to those interviews.

And of course there is the Detroit/Tiger blogging community (DIBS) who have all been so supportive of this site and each other. I look forward to even more interaction and cross-site discussion in 2006. We’ve got some ideas to grow DIBS in membership, and in terms of community, that I hope we can bring to fruition.

Thanks for a great year, and I’m really looking forward to 2006.

Now if only we can get a winning record one of these years…

Contracts, Pitching

Locking Up Bonderman

4 Comments

With Jeremy Bonderman reaching arbitration, he won’t be had for the $400,000 that he made the past two years. The 2006 season will be the first of 3 seasons where Bonderman will be arbitration eligible before reaching free agency. Now there is a school of thought – that has been applied very effectively in the past by the Indians – that it is wise sign young talent to multiyear contracts and secure their first years of free agency. Of the subset of Tigers eligible for arbitration, Bonderman is the most likely candidate to warrant a long term deal. The question is should the Tigers try to do it?

Bonderman is still extremely young, and still an injury risk. He’s been relatively healthy so far, but has yet to accumulate 200 innings in a season (which is probably a good thing). Bonderman has shows moments of brilliance, but when looking at his seasons in total he is simply an above average pitcher at this time. He started off excelelnt, but a line drive combined with other soreness contributed to a sinking strikeout rate and subpar performance in the second half.

At the same time, the Tigers moves this season have indicated that they plan on Bonderman being a fixture in the rotation for years to come. They didn’t pursue the top shelf pitchers in the hopes that Bonderman can fill that role. Additionally, the spending on free agents continues to drive the price for talent higher. Bonderman will stand to benefit from this surge regardless of if he signs a one year deal or something long term. Will the market continue to get above average pitchers $7 million or more a year, or will there be a correction with a new CBA on the horizon?

As a matter of comparison, last year the Twins signed Johan Santana to a 4 year contract which secured Santana’s first two years of free agent eligibility. To get the deal done it cost the Twins $40 million over 4 years. Now Santana just happens to be the best pitcher in the American League. But, pitchers who have done a lot less in their careers (or are well past their prime) have managed to secure contracts in the same neighborhood just one year later. Some continued growth from Bonderman, and continued growth in the free agent market and 4 years at $6 million per might seem like a bargain.

If you’re the Tigers, do you use the second half struggles as a way to save millions over the next several years? If you’re Jeremy Bonderman, do you turn down a long term contract because you know you can get a bigger payday when you put all the pieces together?

Tiger History

Trammell and the Hall of Fame

4 Comments

It’s Hall of Fame voting season, and with the ballots due in soon, some BBWAA members have begun to post their ballots. For Tiger fans, this is the time of year when we are typically disappointed that our heroes of 84 get shockingly few votes. Now the candidates from that team are down to two, Alan Trammell and Jack Morris. While a case could be made for both, Trammell remains the more compelling candidate. At least as long as Bert Blyleven is kept out t, Morris can’t claim to be the most deserving pitcher on the ballot. On the other hand, Trammell is arguably the best infielder under consideration.

I’m not so much interested in making the case for Tram’s inclusion, but in tracking his chances. A player needs to be on 75% of ballots for inclusion, and Trammell only garnered 17% last year. After a quick search of Google News, here is how the votes breakdown:

Votes For (9):

Votes Against (24):

Now 16 17 18 votes does not a sample size make, so don’t read too much into this. However, things once again look grim, as not even a weak class can get Trammell noticed. As I see more columns in the coming weeks I’ll update this tally.

UPDATE 12/30: Twenty ballots that I’ve come across so far, and Trammell has only received 30% of the vote. At this rate an improvement over last year, but still disappointing.

UPDATE 1/04: Over the 33 ballots I’ve seen, Trammell has only 27% of the vote. Yes, an improvement over last year. But not nearly enough momentum and too low a starting point for real consideration. I think I’m done with the exercise for this year. The ballots have been cast and the results are due next week.

For more info: 2006 Hall of Fame Wikipedia Entry
baseball, detroit tigers

Uncategorized

New Look & New Digs

6 Comments

Well, after a couple days of intense computer time and the scorn of Mrs. Billfer, DTW has received an upgrade. In addition to the redesign which is glaringly obvious, I moved the blog from Blogger to WordPress. Here’s what I’m hoping the benefits will be:

  • Improved readability: The site is now optimized for a 1024X768 resolution, as opposed to not being optimized for any resolution before. For the 85% of you with monitors bigger than 800X600 this should mean more usable real estate. Oh yeah, the humongous banner is now smaller.
  • Better integrated commenting: The comments will now appear right on the page with the post. The pop-up is gone. Hopefully this will make it easier for you guys to participate in the discussion. The benefit to me is that your comments will appear on the page – which gives the site more content for search engines to puruse. Thankfully, I was able to import all 1353 of your comments so none were lost.
  • Improved Navigation: It should be easier for you to find things on the site. It will be easier to move between posts, and there will be better searching. Additionally, WordPress offers category support. Now currently nothing is categorized (and the chances of me going back through the various posts is slim), but newer posts will be categorized logically.

The benefits for me are that everything becomes easier. My blog had simply outgrown Blogger, so even simple changes had become cumbersome. The new design also allows for more & better ad placement. I hope the ads don’t offend anyone. However, I spend a great deal of time on this site, so if I can make a couple bucks I’m going to try.

Now the drawbacks of major overhauls are that sometimes things break. If you have a 800×600 monitor, and go to an older post with a bigger picture/table, things will be screwy. I apologize for that, and please let me know if you see anything. Also, the import didn’t treat some tables kindly. I’ve manually fixed some already, but again, if you find anything let me know the post that’s giving you the problems.

I think that all the links to old content should still work. If you’re coming to really old content, you may hit a page that looks like the old design. I wasn’t able to line up all the links exactly, so I kept a couple old pieces around.

With that, I look forward to your feedback.

And most importantly, have a great holiday season! I’ll be back with more posts next week.

News, views, and analysis on the Detroit Tigers and baseball