Mcdonald Traded & New Mud Hens

The Tigers traded John McDonald back to the Toronto Blue Jays for cash considerations. This comes one week after the two teams completed their July trade by agreeing to cash considerations. Essentially, the Tigers rented McDonald for 3 months. The trade frees up an additional spot on the 40 man roster, and may indicate the clubs interest in acquiring another infielder this offseason.

I’m a little sad to see McDonald go, if only because he was so nice to my son when we went to a game.

New Mud Hens Logo
The Toledo Mud Huns unveiled a new logo today.
New Mud Hen Logo - HeadNew Mud Hen Primary Logo
I actually like the new logo quite a bit. Unfortunately I bought a Mud Hens hat a couple months ago. I guess now it will be vintage.

2005 in Review – Tigers run distribution

Earlier in the season I took a look at Detroit’s run distribution. By run distribution I’m talking about the frequency with which they scored (or allowed) a certain number of runs per game. I’ve updated the analysis to include a full season’s worth of games.

The chart below shows the Tiger’s performance given the number of runs the offense generated. Wins are indicated with the orange bars, and blue denotes losses. The yellow line shows the cumulative percentage of games played where the team scored less than x runs. That explanation isn’t the least bit clear, so here is an example using two runs: The Tigers scored 2 runs 21 times (total of wins and losses), and they only managed to win 3 (orange bar) of those games. Furthermore, the Tigers scored two runs or fewer nearly 30% of the time (the yellow line). For comparative purposes, I did the same for all of baseball in 2005.


What I notice first is the large spike at three runs. The Tigers 3 or fewer runs in approximately half of there games, where as major league baseball was held to that mark 40% of the time. In addition, they didn’t fare as well as Major League Baseball at corresponding run levels. At two runs scored, MLB had a .253 winning percentage compared to .143 for Detroit. At three runs it was .347 for MLB and .290 for Detroit. In fact the only run levels where Detroit met or exceeded MLB were at 6 and 8 runs.

Extrapolating a little further, if you look at MLB’s winning percentage at for each scoring level, and apply it to the Tigers then Detroit should have won 76 games. Which leads us into a similar analysis of runs allowed.

Like the runs scored graph, the runs allowed graph has a significant spike. Unfortunately the runs allowed spike is at 4, where the runs scored was at 3. Where the expected wins were typically lower across the board in terms of runs scored, they were inline for the most part for runs allowed. In fact, virtually all the differences in expected and actual wins for runs allowed can be attributed to 2 & 3 run games. When the pitchers allowed 2 or 3 runs, the Tigers won 6 games fewer than expected.

While the pitching staff did implode during the month of August, they were largely effective. Their ability to keep the team in the game was inline with that of other teams. However they weren’t quite good enough to compensate for the offense. Conversely, the offense wasn’t quite good enough to compensate for a slightly below average pitching staff.

Other posts wrapping up the Detroit Tigers’ 2005 season:
Days, Dollars and the DL
Runs Created
A model of inefficiency
Treemapping Win Shares

Tigers add to R&D Staff

The Tigers announced today that they have name Manny Crespo as the director of Latin American Operations. Previously Ramon Pena handled Latin America, and I’m not sure if he is still involved or not (he’s still listed on the team’s website).

The Tigers also announced the hiring of 4 amateur scouts. Ray Crone Jr. and Jim Olander were added as national crosscheckers, Grant Brittain as an area scout and Steve Barningham as a part-time scout. Brittain will scout North Carolina and South Carolina, in addition to northern Georgia. Barningham will scout in the Pacific Northwest.

One of the drawbacks of signings like Magglio Ordonez is that discussions on sites like Baseball Primer focus on the theme that the money would be better spent on scouting and development. Assuming that these hirings are additions and not replacements, it shows that a team with enough money can do both.

While I’m not qualified to comment on the quality of scouts, I can say that the investment in scouting is probably one of the most encouraging moves this offseason. This appears to be the second offseason in a row where Detroit has been committed to scouting and development. Last year the Tigers hired David Chadd to head up scouting, as well as leasing a new training facility in the Dominican Republic. While the dividends will take longer to payout, the Tigers are trying to do the right things.

Bonderman’s Prospect Retro
John Sickels has a prospect retrospective on Jeremy Bonderman.

I was impressed with his overall performance and gave him a Grade B+ in the 2003 book, rating him the Number Nine pitching prospect in baseball.�

The Tigers promoted Bonderman directly to the majors in 2003, skipping Double-A and Triple-A entirely. This kind of decision carries a large risk of backfire with the psychological health of a young player. Although Bonderman pitched terribly in 2003 and almost lost 20 games, he retained confidence in himself. His ’04 and ’05 seasons were qualified successes, as he emerged as a .500 pitcher with an ERA slightly below league average. Given his age, that’s certainly acceptable, and scouts remain very high on his future.

Paul Carey and other news

As a long time Tiger fan I spent many a night listening to the Tigers on the radio while growing up. Those of you who read my interview with Ernie Harwell, know my affection for the old time Tiger broadcasters. That other broadcaster who was with Ernie Harwell for so long was Paul Carey, and wouldn’t it be great to see him in the Hall of Fame as well? Throughout the month of November you can vote for broadcasters to be placed on the final ballot for the 2006 Ford C Frick award. I’d love to see Carey get in and I encourage all long time Tiger fans to go vote for Paul.

AJ Burnett
This falls under the category of not surprising, but the Tigers have contacted Burnett’s agent, Darek Braunecker. At least according to this article some interest may have waned with the September shenanigans, but the Tigers are listed alongside the Rangers, Mariners, and Blue Jays as teams who are still interested. Of course any agent worth his salt would keep as many teams in play for as long as possible. As for my thoughts on Burnett, I’ll get into that in a seperate post (basically I’m still doing my research).

2006 Projections

Last week Tiger Tales posted the projections from the Bill James book (aff link). Today, commenter Walewander (awesome name) pointed out that Baseball Think Factory has posted their ZiPS projections. I won’t copy their work here, but I will recommend you check out the projections for Shelton, Pudge, Verlander, and Zumaya. Shelton looks very promising, and Pudge projects to decent production. ZiPS thinks Verlander will be a stud. Zumaya on the other hand looks to struggle like a first time starter – but that wouldn’t be bad production given his age. Take the projections for what they are – educated guesses (albeit with some pretty good math behind them).

BA’s Top 20
Jim Callis posted his top 20 long term prospects. Justin Verlander was the lone Tiger rating number 11, which is probably fair. The nice thing is that you could make a legitimate argument that a second Tiger prospect could have been included. Things are looking up in the minors.

Handing out hardware

Earlier in the week, DIBS announced Placido Polanco as its choice of Tiger of the Year (as well as pitcher and breakout player). We seem to be in pretty much complete agreement with the Detroit Chapter of the Baseball Writers of America as they announced Polanco yesterday. (I want to thank my DIBS brethern for so enthusiastically embracing DIBS.)

Other awards that were announced include the AL Gold Gloves and the Tigers were shut-out. Pudge Rodriguez picked-up a gold glove he didn’t deserve last year, but he was unfairly shut-out this year. Rodriguez shut down the opponents running game. He threw out over half the attempted base stealers (to be fair I think some of Maroth’s pick-offs were included in there), and that’s not the most impressive part. Of catchers with over 1000 innings caught, only Joe Mauer had fewer attempts. Runners didn’t even try against Rodriguez. Jason Varitke, the winner, threw out only 24% of stolen base attempts. Pudge had 4 passed balls to Varitek’s 7, and 4 errors to Varitek’s 8. This isn’t even really close.

Other Tiger related news

  • Former Tiger stud prospect Torey Lovullo was named manager of Cleveland Indians AAA affiliate Buffalo. This gets a little more relevant when I mention that former Tiger hitting coach Bruce Fields will be taking on the same role for Buffalo
  • Alan Trammell, who made Paul Depodesta’s short list for the Dodgers job was informed he is no longer in the running for the Tampa Bay job. And with Depodesta out, his status for LA remains to be seen.
  • The Tigers completed the John Macdonald trade from earlier this season by sending cash considerations to Toronto. I know everyone is relieved to finally have this settled.

Site News
I’ve done some more tweaking on the site, but I don’t think it is too noticeable. I’ve shrunk the logo slightly, as well as my picture and the fonts in the sidebar. I’ve also added Chitika eMiniMalls as another revenue source. I point all this out because in case something isn’t working that means I recently broke it and I’d appreciate if you let me know.

I’ve got a ton of stuff to write about, it’s just finding the time. However, next week I plan a post combing through the roster in preparation for the hot stove season. Also, I’m still working on wrapping up the 2005 season (I’m intentionally spacing this out – it’s a long offseason) taking a look at the pitching staff from a DIPS perspective.

Jamie Walker’s Option Exercised

This really shouldn’t come as a surprise, but the Tigers exercised Jamie Walker’s $1.25 million option for 2006. This move was pretty much a no-brainer as Walker is an above average LOOGY at an affordable price. According to Baseball Prospectus, Walker saved 3 runs above average in 2005. While 2005 was probably Walker’s weakest of his 3 with the Tigers, he is still a solid option in the bullpen. This should be good news for the Walker family as they moved to the metro Detroit area this year.

DIBS Awards

At the end of the season, eleven web sites that write about the Detroi Tigers voted on a Tiger player of the year, pitcher of the year, and breakout player. Today, DIBS (Detroit Independent Baseball Scribes) announced the winners. Placido Polanco took home player of the year honors, Jeremy Bonderman won pitcher of the year, and Chris Shelton was the breakout player.

As for my ballot, I agreed completely. For player of the year, I gave consideration to Bonderman, Polanco, Shelton, and Craig Monroe. Monroe was the only one to spend the whole season with the team, but I chose to go with Polanco. Polanco’s OPS of 847 ranked among the team leaders, and he did it while playing flawless defense at an important position. Throw in the fact that by all appearances he was the consumate teammate, the decision was easy.

Among pitching candidates, had Kyle Farnsworth not been traded he probably would have had my vote. Bonderman’s second half slide made him an average pitcher for the year. However, given his age and experience his season was still impressive.

As for the breakout player, there was little question that Chris Shelton should win. In fact, he received the first place vote on all 11 ballots. While Curtis Granderson was very impressive whlie he was in Detroit, Shelton did it longer. In any case, both players were bright spots in what turned out to be a disappointing season.

So that’s my ballot, but what about these 11 websites and DIBS? The idea was spawned by myself, Ryan Sosin, and Brian Borawski last season. There are a ton of great internet sites covering sports – specifically the Tigers – that are flying under the radar. The intention of DIBS is to help improve and promote those sites. As a member of the Tiger blogging community, one of the great things is that the various sites aren’t competitive. We don’t snipe at each other, and we do our best to promote each other. If one of our sites gains exposure, we all benefit. And that’s really what DIBS is all about. We want to generate great content, and we want to get that content in front of as big an audience as possible.

Maybin report

Cameron Maybin’s hometown paper, the Asheville Citizen Times, has a
nice article about his experience in the Detroit Tigers instructional league. There isn’t any major news in the article, but it echoes the favorable reviews that he received in an MLB.com article last week. The article speculates that Maybin may start at West Michigan next spring. Oh yeah, and the pic of Maybin in Tiger uniform is courtesy of Roger Dewitt. He has a whole collection of IL pics at Motown Sports.

In other minors-related news, the Tiger contingent has turned in mixed performances in the Arizona Fall League. Kody Kirkland continues to hit well in limited playing time. David Espinsosa started off hot, but as cooled down and seen his playing time diminsh as well. Don Kelly has struggled not only with the bat, but he has committed 4 errors as well.

As for the pitchers, Humberto Sanchez has had two very good outings, and two outings where he struggled – particularly with his command. Adam Peterson and Mark Woodyard have had a hard time getting hitters out.

Player      AB    H    HR    BB    SO    SB    AVG     OBP     SLG 
Kirkland    20    8     1     3     4     1    400     500     700 
Espinosa    46   12     1     7     6     1    261     352     370 
Kelly       55   13     0     6     5     2    236     306     273  

Player        G     IP     ERA     H     HR     BB     SO 
Sanchez       4   17.1    3.63    20      1     10     19 
Peterson      7    9.1    6.75    13      3      3      9 
Woodyard      4    5.0   12.60    14      1      3      6

The silver lining is that Espinosa’s slide may make him less attractive to other teams in the Rule 5 draft, meaning the Tigers may be able to retain him without giving up the roster spot.

Trammell gets short-listed

It appears that Alan Trammell is one of three finalists for the Los Angeles Dodgers managerial job. The other finalists are Orel Hersheiser and Terry Collins.

It would be quite the coup for Trammell to land this job. Given Kirk Gibson’s prominence in Dodger lore, he would most assuredly be part of Trammell’s staff. For both their sake though I’d hope that he wouldn’t give Gibson the bench coach role. I think the combined managerial inexperience of the two was a hinderance.

Tigers complete organizational meetings

The Lakeland Ledger reports that the Tigers finished up their organizational meetings in Florida. The article featured an interview with Jim Leyland. Here are the highlights:

On Pudge:

“I’ve talked with him and we’re OK,” Leyland said. “A lot of that is just frustration when you haven’t accomplished what you thought you could and the season is winding down and you just want to forget it and go home. I’ve seen it before.

Good and Bad Gloves

David Gassko of the Hardball Times introduced a new defensive measure of range earlier this season. While the initial article didn’t do a lot to sell me on the system, he has calculated the 2005 rankings.

Ivan Rodriguez, Nook Logan, and Brandon Inge were the top defenders in the American League at their positions (Inge was actually tops among all third sackers). The fact that Logan beat out all AL centerfielders was surprising. Not that I don’t think Logan isn’t good, but just from a playing time aspect. Because the measure used is a counting stat (essentially runs saved), I didn’t think Logan would have enough time in center to finish at the top.

On the other end of the spectrum, Carlos Pena and Magglio Ordonez finished near the bottom at their positions. Again, I’m a little surprised merely from a playing time perspective.

But the most surprising finding is that Rob Fick was among the best first basemen.

Now whether or not you buy into this system – and I haven’t yet – it is reassuring that a couple of those critical “up-the-middle” positions were rated very highly for the Tigers. But then again, of the 3 Tigers who finished at the top it doesn’t appear clear cut that they will be manning those positions next season.

Hernandez Completes Coaching Staff

The Tigers announced today that Chuck Hernandez will be the team’s new pitching coach. Hernandez had the same position with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for the last two seasons. However, outside of Scott Kazmir he hasn’t had much talent to work with.

I don’t know much about Hernandez, so I tried to find some information about his philosophies or styles – and I didn’t come up with much. Here is what I found:

Relating to pitchers: (link)

“He’s a hands-off guy,” Holtz said. “If a guy is having a tough time, he adds levity. He doesn’t keep the same approach with every player. He treats everyone individually. He’s somebody who likes to get to know the pitchers. He keeps things fun and I like that approach. He loosens guys up. He doesn’t like to mess with guys who are pitching well.”

On Pitching to top hitters: (link)

“You have to constantly change your recipe and try to slow down the great hitters,” Hernandez says. “You can’t give him the same menu every day.”

And that’s about all I found. He’s held the position of minor league pitching coordinator, and his staff in Tampa was very young so he should be comfortable working with kids. In any case it will be interesting to see the direction that the major league staff, as well as the minor league pitchers take.

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