Here’s another Detroit Tiger themed blog calledEye of the Tigers. It looks pretty good, so check it out. His latest post looks at Tiger draft possibilities.

Perusing the interesting Tiger stories of the last week…

Nate Cornejo’s strike out pitch?
Cornejo wants to strike out more people this year, and is working on a splitter to help him. out. Nate’s K-rate has been well documented and it’s nice to see he recognizes the problem.

Tom Gage from the Detroit News is writing a Tiger weblog. So far there is a lot of overlap between the blog and his column, but it may get more interesting as we get into the season.

For the second year in a row, the Tigers renewed Pena’s contract when he refused to sign. Pena’s a Boras client and will be eligible for arbitration next year. At least he’s taking it well:

Say what you will about the value of clubhouse chemistry, but Pudge is definitely doing his part to instill work ethic and teamwork. He stuck around on the bench during the Florida Southern game on Wednesday. Thursday he initiated a medicine ball workout following the Tigers’ win.

It seems to even be rubbing off on Inge, who has been a little bit grumpy this spring/winter. Cluck praised Inge for his willingness to help teach I-rod about the Tigers pitchers on Thursday. He also poked some fun at his own hitting prowess:

Finally, some national views on the Tigers:
Baseball Prospectus Tiger Preview
Phil Rogers from ESPN.com
Baseball Prospectus Triple Play

Note: I screwed up the table at the bottom the first time I posted this, and as a result my conclusions were screwed up. I have since revised these numbers. Thanks to Nate for pointing this out.

Here is the fourth installment of my Tigers’ previews. Part 4 will tackle the offense, and if your interested Part 1 covered starting pitching, Part 2 covered the bullpen, and Part 3 covered the defense.

The majority of the excitement the Tigers generated this year revolved around improving the offense. Improving the offense from last year isn’t a difficult task. The Tigers historically poor offense generated only 591 runs last year which was 108 fewer then the next worst team (Cleveland). The offensive ineptitude forced Trammell to rely on heavy doses of sacrifice bunts and hit-and-runs to try and salvage the few baserunners that they had.

There were a couple bright spots offensively. Dmitri Young earned an All Star spot by hitting .297/.372/.537 with 29 homers. Craig Monroe also proved he could hit lefties and had 23 dingers in his rookie year. Fellow rookie Eric Munson chipped in 18 homers in 99 games before getting injured and missing the end of the season. Aside from that, it was pretty much all bad.

For the purpose of projections, I will be using Bill James Runs Created (RC). Runs created has numerous formulas, but for the sake of simplicity I will be using is OBP*Total Bases. This correlates well with the actual runs a team scores. As a point of illustration, last year the Tigers had 2050 total bases and a .300 OBP for RC=615. The actual Tigers scored 591, or a variance of about 4%.

Another measure I will use is RC27 or Runs Created per 27 outs. To calculate this, take RC and divide by the number of outs (AB-H+Sac’s+GIDP+CS) and multiply by 27 (the number of outs in a 9 inning game). To use Carlos Pena as an example: Pena had 356 outs and 65 RC for RC27=4.9. This means that a team made up of 9 Carlos Penas would score 4.9 runs per game.

Following are position by position projections. It is a bit lengthy, so if you just want to scroll to the bottom I sum it all up with a table and equate it to wins.

Catcher
No position was worse offensively for the Tigers last year than catcher. Brandon Inge, AJ Hinch, and Matt Walbeck combined for 41 runs created. Fortunately, the Tigers brought in the best offensive catcher in the game in Pudge Rodriguez. Rodriguez posted 88 runs created last year in 144 games. While Rodgriguez’s RC 27 took a dip from 6.77 in 2001 and 6.97 in 2002 down to 6.10 last year, it is still a huge upgrade. Essentially, the Tigers have more than doubled their offensive production from the catcher position. Even assuming that Pudge’s production drops a little bit, it is safe to assume that the total catcher runs created would still be in the 85-90 range. Net Effect +45

First Base
This is the make or break year for Carlos Pena’s status as a prospect. He had okay numbers last year, just not what you expect from a first basemen. However, he is still cheap, and better than a “replacement level player.” Also, his RC27 numbers have shown improvement from 4.75 in 2002 to 4.92 last year.

The position as a whole had 81 runs created. Pena accounted for 65 of those runs in 128 games. The bulk of the remaining games were played by Kevin Witt and Shane Halter. This year Chris Shelton and Dmitri Young will most likely pick up the remaing games.

Looking to this year, I’m hoping that Pena can get to 75 RC through improvement, and by playing in more games (say 140). That leaves 22 games for Young/Shelton which should be an offensive improvment over Witt/Halter. Projecting the subs to add 16 RC (which is what they contributed last year, albeit in more games) than the position will generate 91 runs created. Net Effect +6

Second Base
The season started with Ramon Santiago, and ended with Warren Morris. Santiago was horrible with 14 RC in 53 games at second. Morris was decent with 40 RC in 89 games. Shane Halter picked up the bulk of the remaining games and contributed 12 RC. The position as a whole generated 66 RC.

The Tigers decided to improve second base and offered Fernando Vina $6 million over 2 years. Vina’s production seems to be on the decline the last 3 years, even taking into account his inury shortened season last year. His RC27 numbers since 2001 are 5.17, 3.68, and 3.52. In contrast, Morris RC27 last year was 4.04. Essentially the Tigers could have saved 2.5 million a year for comparable production. (I know that Vina has a rep as a better defender, plus he probably helped get White/Johnson/Pudge as well but this article is about offense).

With Vina’s RC27 numbers of about 3.55 that would equate to 64 RC over the course of a full season. Whoever ends up being the backup probably would perform at about the same rate, so the projection will stay at 64RC. Net Effect -2

Third Base
Eric Munson gave people reason to have hope last year. Despite a .240 batting average, he had decent plate discipline and walked enough to post a .312 OBP. While the numbers aren’t great, it showed enough that with modest improvement he could become valuable at a traditionally weak hitting position. His RC in 99 games last year was 43 and his RC27 was 4.64. Barring injury, he should be able to play 130 or so games next year which could translate to 67 RC.

He was backed up primarily by Shane Halter last year, with Dmitri Young and Danny Klassen also seeing time. Young and Klassen combined for 14 RC in 29 games. I’d anticipate a similar number of games and similar production from the backups. The position netted 64 RC last year, and I project it for 81 RC this year. Net Effect +17

Shortstop
Ramon Santiago and Omar Infante covered most of the games at short last year and they were both really bad. The OPS for the position was a scant .565 and they only produced 40 RBI total. Shortstop was easily the second worst offensive position on the team behind catcher generating only 43 RC. Well, the Tigers swapped Santiago for Carlos Guillen in one of Dombrowski’s shrewdest moves while running the Tigers.

Guillen’s RC27 for the last years are 4.03, 4.45, and 4.83. Those are numbers definitely moving in the right direction, and are approximately double the production of Santi-fante. If Guillen’s numbers keep moving up as they have been, a RC27 of 5.0 is possible. If he can stay health for 145 games that would work out to 81 RC. If Infante (or some equally bad) ends up backing up for the other 17 games, it is reasonable to expect an additional 4 runs created. If both conditions hold true the Tigers could generate 85 runs created from the shortstop position. Net Effect +42

Left Field
Last year Craig Monroe and Dmitri Young took the majority of starts in left field, and not surprsingly, it was the team’s most productive position. Monroe, Young, Witt, Ben Petrick combined for 86 runs created. This year it will be manned by the frequently injured Rondell White. White had 78 runs created last year, and 5.7 RC27 splitting time with Kansas City and San Diego. He was healthy enough to play 137 games. Since 1995 White has averaged 117 games played. Also, with the exception of one year (2002) his RC27 has been greater than 5.7. Unfortunately the one year he was awful was his only full year in the AL, let’s hope it was a Yankee thing and not an American League thing.

If White can get his 5.8 RC27 and play 117 games, that would approximate to 75 runs created. Craig Monroe would probably fill in the bulk of the remaining 35 games. Monroe’s RC27 last year was 4.3, and over 35 games that would generate approximately 17 additional runs created. Net Effect +7

Centerfield
The Tigers tried a multitude of players here last year including Andres Torres, Sir Eugene Kingsale, Ben Petrick, Hiram Bocachia, and even Higginson for a game. They eventually settled on Alex Sanchez. Sanchez is fast, really fast, and can hit for a decent average. However, he has no plate discipline so his speed doesn’t help him nearly as much as it should. Regardless, he is slated to be the starter again this year.

Centerfield had 63 runs created last year, with Sanchez having 43 himself in 99 games. Reports from spring training indicate that he’s been trying to get smarter. I’ll assume this only translates into a slightly better walk rate and predict him at 4.0 RC27 (3.9 last year). If he plays 140 games, that would be approximately 62 runs created.

As for Sanchez’s backup, the Tigers are currently holding auditions. The smart move would be to use Monroe. However, Infante and Inge are also possibilities. Of course the decision between Monroe or Inge/Infante will have an affect on projecting the production for the remaining 22 games. Monroe could be expected to have 10.5 runs created, and Inge/Infante would be expected to have 6 runs created, so we’ll split the difference and call it 8. Net Effect +7

Right Field
The Tigers are banking on Bobby Higginson returning to his 2000 form, or at least perform closer to he did in 2000 than he did in 2003. Higgy has battled nagging injuries for the last few years, and it has hampered his production. Despite the injury he played 117 games in right and produced 51 runs created. Unfortunately, his RC 27 has been dropping for 4 years. Since 2000 his numbers are 7.6, 5.7, 5.0, and 3.8 last year. It would be great if Higgy could get back in the 5’s, but the trend doesn’t look like that will happen. He will have better protection in the lineup, and if he is healthier this season he could get back to 5.0, but 4.7 seems more realistic to me. If he can play 135 games that works out to 71 runs created.

Again, Monroe will probably be the primary backup and for 27 games he would be expected to add 13 runs created. The Tigers rightfielders had 74 runs created last year, and it is reasonable to expect 84 this year. Net effect +10

Designated Hitter
Dmitri Young will be the primary designated hitter. He may see some time in the outfield and the corner spots, but he will have this spot in the lineup for at least 125 games. Last year his RC27 was 7.1 and over 125 games that would be 98 runs created. That may be a bit generous because prior to last year, Young’s RC27 was typically in the low to mid 6’s. I’m not going to bite on the fact that this was a fluke last year, and hope that he will be able to replicate it given the additional protection in the lineup.

The remaining games could be filled by a variety of players, including Chris Shelton and Pudge. I’m just going to guess on a RC 27 of 4.0 (probably low) for the composite of the substitutes. Over 37 games that is an additional 17 runs created.

Last year the DH spot had 85 runs created. Net Effect +30

Adding it up
According to my projections, I would anticipate the Tigers will score approximately 165 runs more than last year. I fully acknowledge that these projections could be way off. I had to make a lot of assumptions about how players performance will change, as well as projecting player’s health.

Even if the Tigers get 165 runs better next year, they would still be last or next to last in runs scored. It’s quite possible that there could be an additional “halo” effect where all the players will benefit from being in the context of a better lineup. If this happens the players to benefit the most would be Pena, Munson, and Higgy. Also, there could be an additional “regression to the mean” since the Tigers were just so awful last year. Conversely, these projections rely on the main position players staying healthy all season, and performing as expected. If they underperform or are injured frequently I could have easily overestimated the runs scored.

So how many games will they win?
How does all this analysis equate to wins? Well, I tried to pick stats for predicting that would lend themselves to something that could be translated or equated to runs scored or allowed. From the offense, I expect the Tigers to score 768 runs. The pitching staff I expect to surrender 828 runs. I also expect the defense to be marginally better (7 runs), but that helps to support my pitching staff projection.

The Pythagorean theorem looks at the runs a team scores, and the runs they allow and estimates a winning percentage. It’s not exact, but it comes pretty darn close. If you don’t believe me check this out and compare ExW-L to the actual W-L. The pythagorean theorem equation is: runs scored^2/(runs scored^2 + runs allowed^2). Using my projections of 768 runs scored, and 828 runs allowed, that works out to a winning percentage of .462, or 75 wins.

Seventy-five wins seems a bit lofty to me. My gut would have picked the high sixties as reasonable, and Vegas has the over/under at 67. However, the offense should be significantly improved so the runs scored seems plausible. It’s the pitching staff where I think I may have been overly optimistic. Regardless, 75 is the number I came up with so I’ll stick with it.

I welcome any comments or feedback on my methods, and where you think I made mistakes. Also, the stats came from ESPN.com and Baseball Reference.

Postscript: When I first posted this table, I predicted the increase in runs to be 99, and the corresponding winning percentage to be .418 (68 wins). Nate pointed out in the comments that I had a typo in my table. I put in -2 runs as the projection. My actual projection was 64, with a net effect of -2. Sorry about the confusion.

An excellent article by Lynn Henning. Lynn advocates keeping Sanchez out of the leadoff spot, keeping Chris Shelton, and here’s the kicker:

Been too busy lately to do much posting. I hope to have the offensive preview up in the next day or two if everything goes as planned. Keep checking back!

In Peter Gammons preview of the AL central he says:

Now if only they had the wins as well as the values…

This is the third in a continuing series of previews I’m writing about the Detroit Tigers. The first part was on starting pitching, and the second part took a look at the bullpen.

We’ve heard all offseason that the Tigers have significantly improved their defense, but I’ve yet to see any evidence to say this is true. My method for evaluating the defense is to use a measure called Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). UZR was created by a Baseball Primer poster named MGL. UZR essentially measures the runs that a player will either save or cost their team compared to an average player. In other words, a player with a UZR of 10 means that he prevented 10 more runs than an average player. Conversely, a negative value indicates that the player is below average in preventing runs.

The core of UZR is similar to Zone Ratings in that it measures how successful fielders are at turning balls hit into certain zones into outs. However, UZR incorporates many more factors such as situations (how many outs, how many on), park factors, and a host of other influences. UZR doesn’t measure an outfielders arm, or an infielder’s ability to turn a double play. Here is a full explanation of UZR, and here is a csv file with UZR for all players for 2000-2003.

While UZR isn’t perfect, I think it is better than any other defensive metric currently available.

The table below shows UZR information for the Tigers last year, and what I think they’ll do this year. The first column, “2003 Position UZR Runs” is a measure of how each position performed last year. The “Primary Player 2003 UZR Runs/162” column indicates how many runs the main player at each position would have prevented/cost they had played 162 games at that position. “2004 Projected UZR Runs” is my take on what to expect this year. The projection methodolgy varies by player, and I’ll examine each one seperately.

First Base:Carlos Pena
I was actually a little surprised to see that Pena was a below average fielder. However, he is “just” below average and still pretty young. My projection for 2004 was simply the average of 2002 and 2003. In 2002 Pena had UZR runs of 0, meaning he was league average. Because he’s not at the point you would expect a decline due to aging, I would expect him to perform in the same range he has the past two years.

Second Base:Fernando Vina
This was a move that was praised as a major defensive upgrade. While it’s true that Vina was a heck of a fielder, it appears his best days are behind him. His UZR Runs for 2000-2003 are: 24, 10, -7, -21. That is a disturbing slide. Last year he was injured and only played 54 games. That is the reason I expect some correction this year, but even -10 maybe generous. The other factor with Vina is his reputation of turning the DP. Given the amount of baserunners the Tigers allowed last year, and the number of GIDP the pitchers induced (if this is in fact possible), Vina could still have an impact.

Third Base:Eric Munson
Last year was Munson’s first at third base, and it showed. He finished last/near last among third basemen in most defensive statistics. However, given his ability to learn first base in the minors, and excel at it, there is still reason to be optimistic. While I would expect Munson would improve this year, I don’t have any data that points to it. That’s why I project him to be similar defensively to last year.

Shortstop:Carlos Guillen
I was quite surprised to see that Santiago performed so poorly defensively last year at shortstop. From just watching him, I thought he was at least decent. If you look at the disparity between Santiago’s UZR runs, and the positional runs, it shows that Infante was the superior defender. Also, if you look at the disparity at second base between the position and Morris, it’s clear that Santiago was a liability there as well. We knew that offensively Santiago was a lost cause, but after looking at these defensive numbers Dave Dombrowski deserves serious praise for this trade. As for Guillen’s projection, at short the last 3 years he was 4, -2, and -6 last year. Last year was only in 57 games, and pegging him this year is tough, but -6 seems reasonable.

Left Field:Rondell White
This position was shared primarily between Monroe (+12 last year) and Young (-13) who combined to be a pretty average left field. White has a weighted average (recent years weighted heavier than older years) for the last 4 years of +16, so that’s what I projected for him this year as well. The knock on White is that he has no arm whatsoever. So while still being above average in left, he might not be a significant improvment over last year.

Centerfield:Alex Sanchez
I watch Alex Sanchez and I get scared. He gets bad jumps, plays too deep, has no arm, and misses cut off men. Despite all that, his speed helps him make up for his lack of instincts/ability and he’s-dare I say-average. His weighted average is 7, he had 8 last year. I’ll put him at 8 this year as well.

Right Field:Bobby Higginson
Bobby went from being a good fielder to an average fielder last year. Actually, the decline has been coming the past couple years. While in left in 2000-2002 he had years of 22, 33, and then 11 UZR runs. Last year he moved back to right and his UZR was 6. I know he was battling a hamstring which probably limited his range. However, he has battled injuries since 2000 so it wouldn’t be surprising if he were injured again this year. That said, I’d expect a healthy Higginson to bounce back some what, and that is why I projected +10.

Catcher:Ivan Rodriguez
Unfortunately UZR doesn’t include measures for catchers. For Pudge versus Inge defensively, I’ll point you over to a post by Brian. Basically he shows that Inge is better defensively right now that Pudge. I-rod has been on the decline, and Inge had similar numbers to Benji Molina, last year’s Gold Glove winner.

Conclusions
The Tigers are a slightly better team defensively this year than last year. Not counting catcher, I’d project the Tigers defense to allow 7 fewer runs than last year. If you figure that a 10 run swing=1 win, then the Tigers will add at most one game to their win total by their defensive changes.

Here’s a shot of Joker Marchant stadium in Lakeland that Deran sent me. Take it in, enjoy the green grass, think spring, think summer. And here’s the list of spring training non-roster invites

In one of the Tigers’ best moves since Comerica Park opened, the McDonalds restaurant will be replaced with Montgomery Inn. When my friends and I visited Great American Ballpark last year we went to the Montogomery Inn Boathouse before the game. The ribs were awesome.

While I prefer going to baseball games for the game and not the surrounding fluff, I have to say that Comercia does have the fluff down pretty good.

The Tigers sold 1.2 million in new season tickets in the 8 days following the Pudge signing. That doesn’t even count the 4 tickets my friends and I picked up prior to the signing.

Last week we took a look at the prospects for the Tigers starting pitching. Today we’ll take a look at who the starters will hand the ball to. Last year the bullpen allowed 285 earned runs in 553 innings.

Closer:
Going into 2003 the bullpen was supposed to be a relative strength. Matt Anderson was going to be the closer and Franklyn German was going to be his setup man. Instead, both of them spent signifcant time in Toledo. Anderson lost his 100mph fastball and had to learn to pitch. German lost all recognition of the strike zone while in the majors, walking 45 in 44 2/3 innings. On the bright side he also struck out 41.
That left the closer role up for grabs, and nobody really grabbed it.

This year German, Anderson, and Fernando Rodney will most likely compete to be closer. If German can get a handle on the strike zone the job the job could be his. Fernando Rodney allowed too many baserunners (15 per nine innings), but his K/BB ratio was almost 2. Despite an ERA of 6.06 his dIPS ERA was an impressive 3.61. I’d say that going into spring trainig Rodney is my pick for the job.

Setup Men and the rest
Jamie Walker was solid as the left handed specialist. The main knock against Walker is his propensity for allowing home runs. However, his HR rate improved last year while is K and BB walk rates per nine both moved in the wrong direction. His ERA+ of 130 still makes him the ace of the bullpen.

Al Levine was picked up as an affordable free agent. His career ERA+ is 126, and since 1998 his worst year was 102. One word of caution is that Levine’s career K/9 rate is 4.4 but he dipped down to 3.8 last year.

Danny Patterson will try to regain his form from 2000 and 2001 when he was an effective reliever for the Tigers. He did pitch in 19 games last year and his periperhal stats were pretty good. He finished 9 games and picked up 3 saves.

Rule 5 Guys
The Tigers picked up Mike Bumatay and Lino Urdanata in the rule 5 draft. Bumatay is a lefty who during his minor league career strikes out 10.3 batters per nine innings and strikes out 2.5 batters for every walk allowed. In Pat Caputo’s BA chat, he indicated that Bumatay will probably stick but that Urdaneta probably won’t.

Who’s missing
Most missed will be Steve Sparks who ate 90 innings last year. Wil Ledezma and Matt Roney, last year’s Rule 5’ers will probably be in Toledo to start the season. Chris Mears was removed from the 40 man roster to make room for Pudge. However, if Urdaneta is let go, there could still be a spot for him. As for Chris Spurling, I just don’t know what will happen with him next year.

The projection
I’m honestly at a loss for how to project what this bullpen will do. Levine and Walker are the only two known quantities. In my starter preview, I predicted that the starters would throw 972 innings, which leaves 486 innings for the pen (I just estimated innings at 9*162=1458). Working off Levine and Walker’s past performances, I expect about 120 innings from the two of them, and applying their dERA from last year that would yield 67 runs. That leaves 366 innings for the rest of the bullpen.

A replacement level bullpen (25% below league average) would have a dERA of 5.66 and would allow 230 earned runs in the remaining 366 innings. Hopefully, you would have better than replacement level closers. A league average bullpen eating the rest of the innings would have a dERa of 4.53 and allow 184 earned runs. While I doubt the Tigers will be league average, I think they would be better than replacement level. So I would expect the bullpen to allow between 251 and 297 runs. We’ll split the difference and call it 275.

Combined with the starters projection of 553 runs that means the Tigers pitchers will allow 828 runs if they had a league average defense. That is an improvement of 100 runs over last year’s team.

Now for the disclaimers. This is a very rough estimate, and it makes lots of assumptions. Given the Tigers youth and turnover, that’s about the best that I could come up with however. Now that I’ve done the math, an improvement of 11% seems aggressive. Time will only tell how it all plays out.

I got stats from a variety of sources including ESPN.com, Baseball-Reference, and Baseball Cube. All the defense independent stats were the work of Jay Jaffe at Futility Infielder.

In the next couple weeks I’ll take a look at the hitters and the offense.

Baseball America released it’s Top 10 Tiger Prospect list today. Non-subscribers can read the overview, and the scouting report on #1 Kyle Sleeth. To read reports for 2-10 you need to subscribe. Here are the top 10 according to Baseball America and Pat Caputo. Expected team in parentheses.

1. Kyle Sleeth (Hi A Lakeland)
2. Brent Clevlen (Hi A Lakeland)
3. Joel Zumaya (Hi A Lakeland)
4. Rob Henkel (AAA Toledo)
5. Tony Giarratano (Hi A Lakeland)
6. Cody Kirkland (Low A W. Mich)
7. Scott Moore (Hi A Lakeland)
8. Curtis Granderson (AA Erie)
9. Jay Sborz (Low A W. Mich)
10. Kenny Baugh (AAA Toledo)

Only two members of last years top 10 remained on the list, Clevlen and Moore. Preston Larrison, Nook Logan, and Anderson Hernandez dropped off the list due to performance. Bonderman, German, Infante, and Munson all made the jump, with varying results.

Caputo will chat at Baseball America at 2pm ET.