2013 Season, Spring Training

Catching Up

30 Comments

Hello Friends –

This PED stuff is really interesting to me. My reaction to the latest reports on Biogenesis was a far cry from the disappointment that I had to similar reports in the (way) past. At this point in time, I’m surprised there weren’t more people on the list. Or any Tigers for that matter (well, none on the big league club, prospect Cesar Carillo was linked). If you were to take a pure economic look at using PEDs (laced with tons of assumptions, but hey, I said “economic”) I think the risk/reward test isn’t so easy. Let’s take a look at Melky Cabrera. Here’s his WAR and OPS+ in each full season:

Year WAR (B-R) OPS+
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012		 2.7
1.2
.2
.9
-.5
4.1
4.7*		 95
88
68
93
83
121
158

* suspended for 50 games.

Here’s the same table with an additional column.

Year WAR (B-R) OPS+ Salary
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012		 2.7
1.2
.2
.9
-.5
4.1
4.7*		 95
88
68
93
83
121
158		 not listed
$432,400
$461,200
$1,400,000
$3,100,000
$1,250,000
$6,000,000

And in case you missed it – he’ll make $9,000,000 in each of 2013 and 2014.

I think we can all hazard a guess as to when he started taking PEDs. Assuming he did start prior to the 2011 season, why wouldn’t everyone in his situation take PEDs? A long vacation and financial security for the rest of your life (I’m ignoring adverse health consequences for the sake of argument); I’ll take it. Sure, he lost $2M or so last year, and his next violation would cost him 100 games, or roughly $6M on his current contract. He’d still have made $16M over 3 years – with 150 games in suspensions.

Now, some will argue that taking PEDs hurt his market value last fall, but what would his market value have been had he never taken them?

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Moving on.

– Great article on the limitations and frustrations of WAR. Notably, the discrepancies between B-R and FanGraphs. I use WAR quite a bit in my analysis, but it’s not perfect. That’s why Baseball is a talking sport.

– King Felix signed for $175M over 7 years is about to sign a huge deal. JV is licking his chops.

– Keith Law unveiled his Tigers top 10 prospects list (you’ll need insider) – here are the top 5: Castellanos, Garcia, Rondon, Tyler Collins, Danny Vasquez.

– P&C report on Tues, full squad on Friday. Why do the pitchers and catchers go 3 days early? What do they do?

2013 Season, Spring Training

Countdown to the 2013 Season

44 Comments

It is getting to be that time of year: TigerFest has reminded the fans that the season is on its way, the pitchers and catchers are starting to pack their bags (they report in only 11 days), the turtle is clearing its throat, and Opening Day is exactly 2 months away.

Here is a scrapbook of highlights from the Tigers’ Winter Caravan and TigerFest.

Well this time last season, the big problem to solve was the loss of Victor Martinez, and the big solution was the unexpected blockbuster deal to sign Prince Fielder.  This season, the offseason issues were less obvious, and as Spring Training approaches the front office has been very quiet.

What does everyone think the Top 5 things to watch are now that Spring Training is around the corner? I’ll throw this list out there:

  1. Who will be the Tiger closer? It looks likely that Bruce Rondon will be given every chance to claim the job. If he does not seem up to the task, the Tigers have other options already on the staff (Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke, Al Alburquerque, Joaquin Benoit), or could look at a late signing.
  2. Who will be the #5 starter? Rick Porcello looks like the odd man out in a very solid starting rotation. The Tigers have shown patience in not biting on any trades for him under his value. With Drew Smyly showing promise and the Tigers without another lefty in the rotation, Porcello is the odd man out.
  3. How well will Victor Martinez come back? Victor was a force in 2011, as he has been routinely throughout his career. But he is 34 and just missed an entire season. What happens if he struggles in his comeback?
  4. Who is in Left? It would seem that the job would be Andy Dirks’ to win or lose. But he is one of those guys who has been stuck with the “not a full-time player?” question mark, deservedly or not. A RHB Left Fielder to platoon with Dirks would seem to make sense, but the Tigers didn’t pick one of them up. Do we see Garcia or Castellanos there, and if so, how soon?
  5. How will Torii fit in?  Newest Tiger Torii Hunter seems to solve a huge problem from 2012, when Tiger Right-Fielders finished dead last in the AL with a .641 OPS. He also gives them a 2-hitter, a spot the Tigers have struggled to fill for a while. Torii does have a habit of making waves with his mouth though, once referring to Latin American players as imposters.
2013 Season, Former Tigers, Links

Happy New Year!

66 Comments

Hello Friends – I hope that everyone had a happy and healthy holiday season.

I’ve got a few stories of interest that I plan to post below, but first, I’d like to ask if anyone out there would like to help with the game posts this year. We could use one, maybe two more. Assuming we get the help, that will allow us to put up more than just game posts during the season. If you’re interested – just note it in a comment and I’ll email you off-line.

Secondly, I’d like to raise some money to re-vamp the site. DTW is awesome already, mostly due to the in-depth discussions (seriously, you ever see the comments elsewhere?), but there’s no doubt that a redesign taking advantage of some of the latest technology could improve things a bit. I need to get with billfer on this, so no timetable yet, but hopefully soon. In the meantime, know that an ask is coming. If any of you are developers/designers (it’s a WordPress site), let me know.

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On to our Tigers.

P&Cs hasn’t yet been released, but spring training opens up against the Braves on February 22nd… In the meantime, check out Dan Dickerson’s weekly 1 hour radio show to suppress your excitement for another 7 weeks.

Alan Trammell was my favorite Tiger growing up, and remains in my short list of favorite athletes of all time. I think this is probably the case for many Generation X Tiger fans. I used to get worked up about his HoF credentials, but those had largely subsided, until Matt Snyder of CBS Sports reignited the flame. His article names Trammell and Whitaker as the greatest double play combo of all time (using combined baseball-reference WAR), and it’s not even close; and then points out that they are the only non-active duo on his list where at least one of the tandem is not in the Hall of Fame.

I’m excited about Bruce Rondon, but you know, Brian Wilson is out there. Yeah, Tommy John recovery and all, but for the right price? What do you think? I’m on the fence. I can think of worse ways to spend money, and his gimp prank is legendary, but I think we can go to Dotel or Benoit if Rondon doesn’t work out.

Good luck Bondo. I’m sure you’ll strike out Avisail Garcia with a lefty on the bench in mid-June to clinch a W for the Ms.

Delmon Young = Jeff Francouer?

FanGraphs posted their top 15 organizational prospects last week.

 

2012 Season, 2013 Season, Free Agents

Hot Stove Talk – December Edition

29 Comments

Hello DTW Friends –

Considering the hottest story of the past week has been regarding Tom Brookens resurrecting his career at coaching 3B, I think it’s safe to say that we are in a quiet period. Which is the opposite of how Tom Brookens is handling the promotion(?).

That said, I thought I’d put up a new thread to reset the comments, and to pass along a cool offer from AnyDate.com.

And now a word from our sponsor:

AnyDate.com specializes in providing you with unique sports gifts- especially those related to the famed Detroit Tigers. The Detroit Tigers History Newspaper consists of 63-pages of commemorative New York Times headlines, articles & photographs about the Tigers. Celebrate all of the Tigers best plays, games, and series with this Detroit Tigers History Newspaper, which includes a special color section!

The Detroit Tigers History Newspaper is THE birthday or holiday gift for any true Tigers fan!

**************

And by sponsor, I mean that AnyDate.com is going to give away a free Detroit Tigers History Newspaper to DTW in return for the promotion. Thus, here’s how I’d like to select the winner – tell your best Tom Brookens memory – maybe you saw him at a game, maybe there’s a crazy George Brett/Wade Boggs -like story out there about him, or maybe he evokes a great Tigers memory. As everyone posts, chime in and vote for whose you like best, and then we’ll award the winner next week sometime.

By the way, if my wife is reading this, I’d love one of these. I’ll go ahead and give the Pistons a better chance of winning the NBA Championship this year.

Happy Holidays all – I doubt I’ll post again before the New Year unless something substantial happens. But I’ll definitely be reading along and posting when I have something to add (or need to remind TSE to stay on track).

2012 Season, 2013 Season, Trade Rumors, Winter Meetings

2012 Winter Meetings

161 Comments

Open thread for the Winter Meeting activities…don’t have much time this morning, but I’m sure our community will keep us up to date…check back often.

– Apparently Asdrubal Cabrera has a block on the Tigers, along with the Yankees, Red Sox, Nationals, Giants and Mets. Interesting company.

– I don’t think the Indians want Peralta, but perhaps the Marlins have something that the Indians want.

– If the Tigers are shopping for a closer, here are some candidates.

2012 Season, Free Agents

Hot Stove Talk Part Tres

90 Comments

(see what I did there? Tres? You can call me the blog post title Expert, if you’d like)

It’s been a while, so let’s get caught up on Free Agent news around the club. There hasn’t been much movement around Detroit, but some interesting things nonetheless.

I am fascinated by the Josh Hamilton situation. Living in Dallas, I can tell you that the club’s attitude towards him at the end of the season through now was definitely resentful, and bordered on disgust. His lack of effort, his massive August slump and his unappreciative comments angered many around here. It looks like that attitude leaked out to MLB in general and he’s not seeing the money he hoped he would. Jon Daniels makes smart decisions, so if they make Hamilton an offer, it will be at a level that the club feels he is worth, regardless of what the market says.

On to our Tigers…

This Rafael Soriano stuff is heating up. I know that we have Rondon waiting in the wings, but why not Soriano? Money is not an object here. Illitch is in a spend now to win now mindset, of which we should be very appreciative. I would love to see Soriano nailing down the 9th for us. Rondon will have his time. Tony Paul of Detroit News disagrees. By the way, where would Boras be without Illitch? About 1% less rich?

I think that many feel that Porcello is expendable if we sign Sanchez, but Dave Cameron argues that Porcello is poised for a breakout season (you’ll need insider). Cameron writes “He set career highs in both strikeout rate and ground ball rate in 2012, but even more encouragingly, his velocity jumped nearly 2 mph, and he was regularly topping out at 95 for the first time as a big leaguer. The improvement was masked by mediocre results, but those were primarily caused by a .344 batting average on balls in play, and considering how dreadful the Tigers’ defense was, that’s a number that is unlikely to be repeated with any other set of teammates. While his 4.59 ERA won’t blow you away, his 3.91 FIP suggests he was much better than his raw stats suggest.” (note – I find the insider subscription to be well worth it) Porcello will benefit more than anyone from a better middle infield…

So let’s talk about the middle infield for a bit. There have been rumors that the Arizona Diamonbacks whant Peralta. Not sure why (likely at 3B), but let’s assume that they are true and that the Tigers make a deal for Justin Upton. Then what do we do at SS? Some think that the Tigers may covet Stephen Drew. But Drew would likely be a downgrade defensively (especially after ankle surgery) and would definitely be worse offensively than Peralta. Some have suggested putting in Danny Worth and just sacrificing his spot in the lineup in return for the increased defense. This is not a bad idea. Runs shouldn’t be a problem in 2013, defense will. As we all know, the Tigers were one of the worst teams in the league at turning ground balls into outs, and Worth’s range at SS would be of significant value. There was a long insider article on ESPN yesterday which addressed the tigers middle infield problems, here are a few of the highlights:

  • Infante and Peralta will both be 31 next season, they are likely to decline all the way around.
  • “Infante’s .257/.283/.385 line in his two months in Detroit in 2012 didn’t even match that career-outside-of-Atlanta average. At the very least, Detroit can at least be confident in his fielding. As he has received more steady playing time at one position, his fielding performance has improved — he has been 18 runs above average over the past two years according to UZR — but even with two months of Infante’s good defense, the only team to get worse production out of its second basemen last season was the Orioles.”
  • “If they are serious about winning whileMiguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Justin Verlander are in their primes, it might make sense to use top prospect Nick Castellanos as trade bait to get an elite shortstop or second baseman. Castellanos’ natural position is third base, where he is blocked by Cabrera, so he could be expendable. While they can’t move Peralta to another position, Infante could easily go back to his super-sub role and have plenty of value there if they acquire a better second basemen.”
And some AJax love in the article – “Last season, Jackson posted one of the best seasons in the game, and it was curious that he didn’t receive even one vote for the Most Valuable Player award. (He had 5.5 WAR, per FanGraphs, which ranked eighth in the AL.) At 5.5 WAR, only 21 players in baseball were more valuable than Jackson.”

 

Boesch may be on the block, according to Jon Paul Morosi. I definitely think that Boesch is expendable, I just don’t see us getting much in return.

I think the real lynch pin is Garcia. If he’s the right fielder of the future, then there’s no spot for Justin Upton – whom I’m guessing the Tigers would go after in a Peralta to the DBacks deal. Though I would love to see the Tigers deal Boesch and Peralta for minor leaguers, and then run with Worth at SS. Here’s a potential lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. VMart, DH
6. Garcia, RF
7. Avila, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Worth, SS

Nice.

A few other notes:

– Remember how we acquired QBert and Darin Downs? Offseason minor league contracts. Just signed 19 more – including 2005 first round pick Trevor Bell.

– In case you missed it – the Tigers released some info on their World Series shares.

– Remember when the Tigers were in the World Series? Seems like forever ago.

2012 Season, Awards, Players

Kept the MVP in the D

87 Comments

Miguel Cabrera is your 2012 AL MVP.

What was billed to be a neck and neck battle between Old School and New School turned out to be Cabrera in a laugher, as he took 22 of 28 first place votes, and handily beat Trout with 362 points to 281 points.

I sat in on the Cabrera conf call (thank you billfer for forwarding me the info) – a few highlights:

1) Albom asked about “old stats” vs. “new stats” and what Cabrera’s thoughts on them were; specifically what Cabrera thought about Trout dominating the new stats. Albom seemed to want to bait Cabrera into proclaiming a preference for traditional metrics. Cabrera responded that he grew up following those stats, and that it was very special for him to lead in the 3 major categories, but that he understands the importance of the new stats and thinks that there is a place for both of them. Keep an eye out for Albom’s column in the morning.

2) A reporter from Reuters asked Cabrera if winning the Triple Crown won him the MVP and pointed out that 4 less hits, or 2 less HRs, and Cabrera doesn’t win the Triple Crown. Cabrera basically said no Triple Crown – no MVP.

3) A reporter asked in Spanish whether Cabrera was nervous leading up to today. Cabrera said no, he thought that he was deserving, but thought that Trout had a tremendous season and expected Trout to win. I thought this was a great, candid response. I’m guessing that the major papers have translators on the line, but it will be interesting to see if anyone runs with this in the morning.

4) Cabrera was humble, respectful of everyone, and extremely appreciative of his teammates and fans.

Congrats, Cabrera.

2012 Season, Free Agents

Hot Stove Talk Part 2

138 Comments

Carrying over the previous thread (and this is over a few days, so some of the news is from Monday).

– Open letter to TSE, dude, you gotta start making some specific recommendations. You’re turning away readers. I implore you, suggest a few actual deals. Everyone who reads knows that I let just about anything go here, other than cursing, but I don’t want to lose readers. On the other hand, if you are one of my nemesis (or is that nemesi?) and this is an incredibly long and brilliant prank, bravo!

– Danny Knobler of CBS Sports tweeted on Friday that the Tigers aren’t looking at Rafael Soriano, and that Rondon will have a crack at it come spring training. Early reports from the Venezuelan Winter League are strong.

– Sanchez’s price may be going up – apparently his first ask was $90M over 6, and his latest was $100M over 7, according to Jon Heyman.

– Torii Hunter is in Detroit right now and is saying all the right things. Looks like it’s between Detroit and Texas – and Hunter lives in Prosper, which is 20 miles north of Arlington. With all of his son’s troubles, I would think that he wants to be closer to home, but hopefully we’ll see him roaming left in Comerica next year. Hunter’s presence in the clubhouse could really help with all of the young OFers we have (I think that Berry is the oldest who will make the roster next year, no?).

– Lynn Henning thinks that the Tigers might flip Peralta to AZ (where he could play 3B) and that Worth should get the shot at SS. Replacing Rayburn/Boesch/Young in the lineup will definitely allow us to sacrifice some O for D next year.

A few other notes:

– The Freep is putting out a book on the 2012 season – could be a nice stocking stuffer for the Tigers fan with average expectations on your list.

– Cabrera and Fielder won Silver Slugger awards last week.

– FanGraphs takes a look at Avila and wonders if 2011, or 2012, was the aberration.

 

2013 Season, Free Agents, Hot Stove

Hot Stove Talk Part 1

103 Comments

Just to stoke the fire a bit…

Baseball Winter Meetings are Dec 3rd – 6th in Nashville this year.

The potential free agents are all over the board, here’s what I’m finding:

– 2 guys from CBSSports think that Josh Hamilton will be a Tiger. 1 guy from DTW thinks that this is ridiculous. Josh Hamilton is a drain on the clubhouse and the franchise in general. I don’t think the Rangers are even going to tender him an offer. He’s got more off the field problems than the cast of Broke, and over the past 6 years he’s averaged 1/4 of the season on the DL. Please, please, please, no Josh Hamilton.

– Jim Bowden listed the Tigers as potential matches for Nick Swisher, Angel Pagan, Cody Ross, Torii Hunter and Melky Cabrera. I like Hunter of the bunch, but I think he’ll get overpaid by the Rangers (he lives in the area) or Yankees, and I’d prefer that the Tigers overpay for someone who wasn’t born when “Superstition” was #1 on the charts.

– Prediction: Bondo will get a spring training invite and re-invent himself as a short reliever specialist.

– MLive’s Chris Iott did a nice job breaking down the Tigers’ bullpen today, though he didn’t take a position on the 2013 closer. That will definitely be a big story, possibly through spring training if they want to give Rondon a shot.

– I’ve read that Sanchez is looking at 4 years in the $50M – $55M range. Check out this saber slanted post.

2012 Season, 2013 Season, Hot Stove

Your Early 2013 Off-Season Thread

92 Comments

I’d love to write a long piece to recap all the fun we’ve had over these past several weeks, and to celebrate the historic season by Cabrera and what could be another Cy Young entry for Verlander. But I don’t think any of us have forgotten that, and this picture is more reflective of how we feel (at least about baseball for now).

To be honest, I moved my MLB.com and Freep apps off of my home screen on my cell phone today; signifying the unmistakable end of the 2012 baseball season. Dragging an MLB logo into a little digital trash can seemed like a proper ending.

It may be a few weeks before Coleman or I throw up another post, so I thought I’d leave you with a some DTW housekeeping notes, and then a few thoughts to carry us for a bit

1) I’d like to add another regular game poster (or two) for next season. I really liked it when billfer filled the blog with though-provoking commentary on issues outside of the game posts, and I’d like to give that a go if we can get some help on the game posts. Post on here if you’re interested and I’ll reach out to you.

2) I think that the site earns a few bucks from advertising, but I’m certain that billfer still pays for a portion of this out of pocket. There’s a good chance that I’ll ask for some donations in the coming months. Keep an eye out.

3) Thank you everyone for your input, feedback and patronage. DTW is the most acute Tigers’ community around.

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On to the Roster…

Free agency courting started when Cabby stood there like a house by the side of the road Sunday night (taking his cue from the entire lineup), and signings can start after midnight ET on Friday. A quick look at the Tigers’ Free Agents:

Free agents: DH/OF Young, RHP Sanchez, RHP Valverde, C Gerald Laird.

Young is gone. Valverde is gone. I think each will end up with decent offers elsewhere.

Good chance the Tigers resign Laird.

Sanchez will be very interesting. Smyly looks great, he’s under control, and it sure would be nice to have a lefty in rotation. But Sanchez was fantastic down the stretch and may have finally found it. Sanchez will get great money elsewhere, so it’s a matter of how much the Tigers are willing to spend. I expect the Tigers to make a serious play for Sanchez – you can never have too much pitching.

Club options: RHP Dotel ($3.5 million, $500,000 buyout), SS Jhonny Peralta ($6 million, $500,000 buyout).

Yes and…I don’t know. I’m not a huge Peralta fan, but there’s not a lot out there. Now, remember that VMart is back next year, that will help the offense. Since we’re not going to get better defensively at either corner, I’d be willing to sacrifice Peralta’s bat (it’s not bad for a SS) for a SS with better defensive range.

Arbitration eligible: C Alex Avila (1st time), OF Brennan Boesch (1st time), RHP Phil Coke (2nd time), RHP Doug Fister (1st time), OF Austin Jackson (1st time), OF/IF Don Kelly (2nd time), RHP Rick Porcello (2nd time), OF/2B Ryan Raburn (3rd time), RHP Max Scherzer (2nd time).

I’d expect the Tigers to make nice offers to Avila (thank goodness he’s eligible this year, and not last), Coke, Fister, Jackson and Scherzer. I bet that Ricky P gets into arbitration (such an interesting  process, Tigers staff show up with charts and graphs which advance the notion that Porcello is a terrible pitcher), and I think they let Kelly, Boesch and Raburn go. Kelly could find a spot as the 25th guy on the roster, but personally, I’d rather that be Berry. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Boesch turn into a decent player somewhere else, but I definitely think it’s time for him to move on from Detroit.

Gonna be a very interesting few days, keep an eye on the comments for updates from our community.

2012 Season, Playoffs

Game 2012 Playoffs.13: Giants at Tigers

46 Comments

Delmon Young was asked what the Tigers are going to do to change their luck: “Like sacrifice a chicken or something? We’re not going to do that.”  (@beckjason).

Well that seems reasonable.  Not that anyone has suggested any better ideas.

Delmon also states the painful truth when he says that “we haven’t hit all playoffs,” not just against the Giants.

And yet in some ways, this is the team we have seen all season. They may have averaged 4.48 runs a game, but seldom did they score 4 runs; they were more likely to put together a run of 1 or 2-run games, then a run where they bombed the other team.

This is a feast-or-famine offense, nothing average about it.

The base running/base coaching issues, the sloppy play in the field, the inability to advance runner, the ill-timed GIDPs, the waste of brilliant starting pitching…these are all things so familiar to Tiger fans this year.

And yet that does not tell the story of the 2012 Tigers either; these Tigers, with all of these flaws, won their division, and played their way into the World Series.

They are a streaky team, having a bad streak at the worst time. But a new streak can start anytime.

As Justin Verlander tweeted this morning: “History is life’s greatest teacher and if it’s taught us anything it’s that nothing is impossible.”

Every season ends sometime, even for the winners. The players will pack up and head off to wherever they spend the winter; Octavio Dotel will buy some nice shoes; some players will be back, some won’t; management will be back at work on creating the 2013 version of the Detroit Tigers.

But it really is too soon–if nothing else for those 40,000 plus great Detroit Tigers fans holding tickets to One More Game. Here’s hoping the boys come through for them.  And while we’re at it…the Giants fans are great fans as well.  Let’s give them another game! What could be more fun than extending the series to Wednesday, for the team in the Halloween colors and costume beards.

Your Win One for the D Lineup: (Update: Avila scratched with right forearm soreness. Kelly is backup catcher).

 

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Dirks, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Avila, C. Infante, 2B
9. Infante, 2B Laird, C

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