Dontrelle Willis made his first rehab start for the Toledo Mud Hens. The one thing everybody should be looking for was to see if Willis had regained any modicum of control. I haven’t seen postgame reports or interviews yet, but the box score tells a favorable story.
Willis pitched 4.2 innings and allowed 4 hits and two runs. But the big numbers were 0 walks and 4 strike outs. He threw 72 pitches and 71% of them went for strikes. Encouraging signs to be sure.
My guess is that Willis makes one more start and if the results are similar he would rejoin the Tigers rotation in Kansas City. If you’re wondering what would happen to Armando Galarraga, I’m pretty sure that it wasn’t coincidence that Willis made a start the same night that Galarraga did. Things could get shuffled and maybe someone else in the rotation develops a tired arm, but otherwise Galarraga would be the one heading out.
Dontrelle Willis is landing on the disabled list because he didn’t land correctly on Friday night. The initial diagnosis was a hyperextended knee and that was confirmed today by an MRI that revealed no structural damage. He’s not expected to miss significant time, but he wasn’t going to make his next start. Armando Galarraga will get the call, but he hasn’t been placed on the roster yet. That spot went to Ryan Raburn who will provide some positional flexibility to Jim Leyland.
Miguel Cabrera has been hobbled for the last week, and Carlos Guillen strained a hamstring that will require him to miss a few days. With uber sub Brandon Inge set to give Pudge Rodriguez his first day off behind the plate, Leyland would probably like to have someone man 3rd and do the same for Cabrera. Plus, Raburn deserves to be on the team regardless.
But back to Willis, this leg injury may be a blessing in disguise. We know the story about the 7 walks in his first start, and he wasn’t close to the strike zone in his limited time in the second start. An extra week might not be sufficient to find that elusive control, but it certainly can’t hurt. As for Galarraga the fact he’s contributing is a surprise. If he’s productive the trade in which Dombrowski acquired him might be his best of the season. All the Tigers gave up was an A ball hitter Michael Hernandez who they signed out of a tryout camp. Hernandez was subsequently released by the Rangers.
On the second batter of the Friday night’s game Dontrelle Willis slipped and hyper-extended his knee. It’s unclear at this point whether the knee injury will cause Willis to hit the DL, but given his control problems this year it might not be a bad idea regardless. If the Tigers do need a new starter, who could they turn to? Up until Friday afternoon I thought that it would be Yorman Bazardo, but now Detroit will have to turn to someone else.
Virgil Vasquez
Vasquez made a couple spot starts for the Tigers last year, with some rocky results. He was rocked at the Metrodome, and had a short outing against the A’s. In between was a 5 inning, 2 run effort against the White Sox. He’s been solid in his 2 starts so far with an impressive 14:2 K:BB ratio for the Mud Hens.
Controversial? Yes. But I have to believe it would be considered. Dave Dombrowski and Jim Leyland have been willing to rapidly promote (or rush) players through the system. He’s had an easy time of it in Lakeland in his first 2 starts – ever. And that’s the rub. He has two professional starts under his belt. While the scouting reports indicate he probably already is capable of pitching at the big league level the bigger question is should he? I’m inclined to say it would be a bad idea because he needs time to develop and do you want to thrust that on a kid? Conversely though if his stuff is ready, and if he is as poised as he appeared in the spring training appearance I saw (and by all accounts he is), would there be an adverse effect for him to collect a handful of starts?
I still think it will be Vasquez. He’s done it before and it is the sensible pick. But don’t fool yourself if you think that Porcello wouldn’t be at least discussed.
News has been flying out of the Tigers camp fast and furious lately. Today the main topics of discussion are Dontrelle Willis, Clete Thomas, and Tim Byrdak.
Dontrelle Willis
Willis is struggling. He’s having a heck of a time finding the plate. His problem last year was control, and that had to do with missing his spots. But right now he’s missing the strike zone with 4 more walks, a HBP, and a wild pitch in a miserable 3 inning outing.
I don’t put a lot of stock in spring training numbers, but something is wrong here. It’s at the point in the spring where pitchers have moved beyond “working on things” to a large extent. It is time to be concerned because Willis’s last two starts have been bad.
Ian speculated about an injury following Dontrelle’s last start. I sincerely hope he’s not trying to pitch through an injury all of 0 games into a 3 year contract. If it’s not an injury, it’s on Chuck Hernandez to figure out the problem.
Clete Thomas
It sounds as if Thomas may have played himself on to the roster, well the injury to Granderson was the catalyst of course. Jon Paul Morosi reports that Thomas has a shot at coming North. The 24 year old out of Auburn was the Tigers 6th round pick in 2005. Last year he posted a solid 280/359/405 line for Erie.
If he does make the roster it would be over Freddy Guzman which would be surprising. Guzman has had a good spring, is on the 40 man roster, and is out of options (though he’s not really a threat to be plucked off of waivers). Timo Perez who was in the mix was cut, along with Mike Hessman yesterday.
Tim Byrdak aftermath
We’ve already discussed the Byrdak release, but the beats have some more info. Danny Knobler has some quotes from Jim Leyland, including the fact that he’d like it a lot of if there was a second lefty.
My guess is that a trade happens in the next two days. I’m not sure for who, but I think that the Tigers would be parting ways with Ryan Raburn. It’s not a scenario I’m particularly fond of, but that’s my idle speculation.
Also, my initial speculation that something happened behind the scenes was probably too ominous. It could simply be that the Tigers gave him his outright release so that he’d be free to sign with any other team, in essence doing him a favor.
A flurry of link worthy items, plus just being behind in general leads to the mother of all link round-ups:
Injuries – left handed pitcher edition
Bless You Boys picked up a Buster Olney report that scouts were speculating that Dontrelle Willis may be injured. That could certainly be part of his control problems. Then again, Willis has battled increasing control issues the last couple years so it may be a continuation of a trend. But it sounded like Tigers scouts were confident that the problem had been licked. But what if it isn’t?
Assignable cause is always nice when trying to identify shifts in output (I’m an industrial engineer by trade). Usually if you can find the assignable cause and fix it. But in this case fixing it may mean rest & rehab or even surgery if there is an elbow problem.
Big League Stew has some more. Well, not much more but I like BLS and there’s a cool picture.
Things aren’t going well for Clay Rapada either who is experiencing more soreness.
Injury news – right handed pitching edition
Fernando Rodney was examined by the team orthopod and no structural damage was found and he will resume throwing. That’s the good news portion of this update.
Injury news – blogging center fielder subsection
Let’s hope Granderson heals as fast as he gets out of the box for triples. The mending time is estimated to be really quick where he only misses the first week (via John Fuller, his publicist/manager type guy) or it could be a month if Chone Figgins can be used as a comp. While he could probably start swinging the bat right away, it will likely effect his grip strength. And man, I’d imagine hitting in cold weather would be especially painful.
In his stead Edgar Renteria will leadoff and Brandon Inge will manner center field – at least initially. I have a felling there will be some mixing and matching with Ryan Raburn perhaps getting some extra at-bats as well.
Interviews
Speaking of Granderson, The Grandy Report was able to interview him last week. It turns out Granderson’s favorite subject was math. I wonder if he’s a saber?
Also, Dontrelle Willis got together with Ryan Howard and David Wright during a Topps shoot. Willis grabbed the mike and conducted the interviews himself. This interview keeps getting taken down, so catch it while you can.
THE CONTRACT
I think it’s only appropriate that THE TRADE spurred THE CONTRACT. There is little new news about THE CONTRACT except that it is a 7 year extension as I had speculated initially. My guess on how it breaks out is $15 million in 2009 and then $21 million in each of 2010-2015. It hasn’t been officially announced, but it hasn’t been denied. And Cabrera’s Dad seemed to confirm it to a Venezuelan newspaper. (translation via Google)
“We were expecting this contract,” said Cabrera Navas. “There were two very important things for him to accept the deal: first, that there are other Venezuelans, as Magglio (Ordoñez) and Carlos (Guillen), and second, that we have a good chance to win and go to a World Series.”
The story also said that there are incentives for MVPs, All Star Games, and the like.
Mack Avenue Tigers beat me to the punch and rounded up the opinions on the valuation of the deal. The opinions vary greatly. I’m still sticking with my initial feelings that it is a pretty fair valuation for both sides. In terms of Cabrera’s actual value it seems fair. In terms of Cabrera’s perceived value it appears to be favorable for the club.
Leftovers
Finally wrapping this thing up we look to the Marlins who decided to send Cameron Maybin to the minors for more seasoning. Probably a good move and Maybin will probably still be the starting centerfielder by the end of the year. But Jair Jurrjens locked up a spot in the rotation after a strong spring.
While a game the first week of spring training probably means little, you can’t help but wonder if today’s 3-3 10 inning tie between the Tigers and Indians could be an indicator of how the 2008 season will transpire for these teams.
Of more immediate importance today was the debut of Dontrelle Willis in a Tigers uniform. Dontrelle was admittedly nervous at the start of the game. Willis allowed three hits, including a homer in two innings of work. But the reports were positive with Leyland complimenting Willis’s fastball and Willis tipping his cap to Ben Francisco who’s homer came on a good pitch. No word on whether Willis was using his full repertoire of if he was focusing on fastball-change as the other starters have done in their first appearances.
Other notes:
Brent Clevlen made a couple of nice plays in center field, at least according to Dan and Jim on the broadcast.
Speaking of Dan and Jim, they gave listeners a little bit of a scare saying that Miguel Cabrera limped to the bench after a ground out. They later clarified saying that everything was OK, but jeez. Don’t scare us guys.
I don’t put a lot of stock in spring stats, especially for established players. Like I’m not worried that Carlos Guillen doesn’t have a hit. But it is worth noting that Brandon Inge has only made 2 outs over 4 games. He’s 3 of 5 with 4 walks.
It was the locks for the roster that gave up the runs today with Willis, Todd Jones, and Tim Byrdak all surrendering a run on multiple hits. But it was a solid outing for Denny Bautista who fanned one and allowed a lone hit in his 2 innings.
While today was officially “Pitchers and Catchers report” day, it was just that. Reporting day. The official workouts don’t begin until tomorrow. Still, the players and beat writers are all in town so the stream of news has started to flow.
The links to the stories are below with my comments to follow:
It’s the first-ish day of spring training so of course it is time to find out who the Opening Day starter will be. Leyland is leaning towards Justin Verlander which really is who it has to be isn’t? I don’t think there’s much mystery that the rotation will be Verlander-Rogers-Bonderman-Willis-Robertson. Rogers will be sandwiched between the two righties and Willis and Robertson will fill out the 4 and 5 spots. Continue reading Spring Training day .5 round-up→
On Friday Lynn Henning wrote a detailed look at Dontrelle Willis with a heavy emphasis on scouting. I found the article fascinating from the stand point of getting a better understanding of Willis’s repertoire as well as the thought processes that went along with approving the deal for the lefty. He was after all coming off a pretty rough year. I also viewed it as a chance to dust off that pitch f/x database I’ve had sitting dormant and explore whether or not the reports meshed with what the system had reported. Continue reading Scouting Dontrelle Willis→
I attended Curtis Granderson’s charity hoops game last night, and it would have to be considered a success. According to Jon Paul Morosi there were over 1700 fans in attendance at Avondale High School. The game featured the Detroit All Stars coached by Granderson against the Flint All Stars skippered by Nate Robertson.
The Detroit team, featuring Desmond Howard, Braylon Edwards, and Willie Burton ended up on top in a game that was made closer than it should have been by some horrible officiating from guest referee Dontrelle Willis. Edwards, who took home MVP honors actually seemed to be pretty irritated as Dontrelle made up calls to keep the game close down the stretch. Edwards came to play and he actually did play defense and had a few impressive dunks. He also hurdled the ball rack to dunk during half time.
Willis was very entertaining and an absolute clown who seemed to genuinely be having a great time. When questioned about his calls early on he retorted along the lines of “I came up all the way from Florida for this and I’ll throw everyone in this gym out if I have to.” He did throw out both Granderson and Robertson. Robertson offered to let Willis wear his glasses if it would help.
The half time show was a three point shoot out between Granderson and Robertson. Curtis won going away as Robertson couldn’t recover from a tough 1 for 10 in the first round.
Now with a crowd that big there were some frustrations. Doors opened at 5pm and I arrived with my kids at that time and waited for 25 minutes in the will call line while those who hadn’t pre-purchased tickets were able to walk right up and get them. Either mailing out tickets ahead of time, or having multiple lines for will call differentiated by last name would probably help next year.
Also, some were frustrated with the autograph process. Autograph tickets were sold for a signing session after the game. Even though the tickets were capped at 500, that still makes for a long line and a long wait considering it took the players a little while to get showered and start signing. There’s really nothing that can be done on that front. I did hear complaints from people around me who were upset that only Dontrelle and Curtis were signing. Many had brought UM football helmets and footballs hoping for Edwards and Howard (and probably Tyrone Wheatley who was scheduled to appear but didn’t). My take is that the autograph ticket cost $10 and it was being done for charity. I’m not sure what people really expected.
Even with the hiccups it was a great night for a great cause. It’s also great to see a young athlete be able to rally as much support as Granderson was able to attract.
The Tigers and Dontrelle Willis agreed on a 3 year contract. The Tigers will pay Willis $7 million in 2008, $10 million in 2009, and $12 million in 2010.
It’s a very reasonable deal with limited downside. The surge in homers and walks last year was disturbing, but he should benefit from Comerica Park’s left field which is more favorable for fielding than Florida and may trap a few of those homers. Of course Willis is a ground ball pitcher and he’ll have better defense at short and second than he had in 2007.
Plus given his age there is a decent chance he rebounds and gets better. There’s also the chance he was overworked at a young age and the injury he said he battled in 2007 could simply be foreshadowing of larger problems.
Regardless, there is little not to like. Given the current market for starting pitchers, and even discounting that Willis isn’t on the open market, the contract appears to be a very fair valuation.
Chad Durbin’s stint as a Detroit Tiger came to an end today when the club made the decision to not tender him a contract. Durbin, who entered 2007 out of options made the team as a bullpen arm as the team broke spring training. But an injury to Kenny Rogers thrust Durbin into the starting rotation.
Durbin made 19 starts and appeared in 36 games in total. He did a decent job as a swing man, and when he was returned to the bullpen he even was given some critical innings.
But I think Durbin’s fate was sealed on September 11th. The Tigers were coming off their dramatic come from behind victory against the Blue Jays and had a double header against the Rangers as they tried to hang in the playoff race. Durbin started the first game and was rocked for 2 homers, a double, and 3 singles before being lifted in the 3rd inning.
Durbin didn’t make it into another game until September 25th when he pitched the 9th inning of an 8-0 game. That would be his last appearance of the season. It was clear that Durbin lost his manager’s trust during that September 11th game.
When you factor in the bullpen crunch the Tigers have with a number of players out of options (Cruceta, Bazardo) and another pitcher who can fill the same role (Zach Miner), it just didn’t add up for Durbin staying with the team.
The move also means the Tigers have a free spot on their roster.
All those other guys
Tim Byrdak on the other hand was inked to a one year deal. He’ll make $700,000 in 2008 which isn’t a bad price for a decent LOOGY. The question is whether Byrdak will be a decent LOOGY. His career was nondescript until last season and there aren’t a lot of guys who blossom at age 33. But Byrdak did add a new split finger pitch and did fan more than a batter per inning so I think he has a decent chance to be productive.
As for the other guys, they were all tendered contracts which wasn’t a big surprise. Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Bobby Seay, and Nate Robertson weren’t going anywhere. Marcus Thames has been the subject of trade talks, but the Tigers weren’t going to let him go for nothing. By tendering contracts it insures that the Tigers will be paying each of these players in 2008 and Cabrera and Robertson are particularly likely to get long term contracts. I’d suspect that they’d like to lock up Willis, who is fond of the idea, but want to see if he bounces back from a rough 2007 first.
If you’re wondering about the process, the players and teams can continue to negotiate. On January 18th the two sides will exchange figures. Then starting February 1st arbitration hearings will be held. The players and agents talk about how great they are, while the teams talk about all the flaws of the players and why they don’t deserve more money. An awkward situation to be sure, and one that Dombrowski has avoided historically. I’d be stunned if any of these cases made it to the hearing and expect contracts to be hammered out in January.
We know Dontrelle Willis has the big leg kick and the bigger smile, but let’s take a graphical and statistical look at the Tigers newest starter.
The pitch selection
Using Josh Kalk’s pitch f/x tool we can look at the mix of pitches that Willis throws and the success he has with each pitch in his repertoire.
Willis has 2 fastballs, one with more sink and vertical movement – presumably a 2 seamer – that he throws most frequently. He also appears to have a 4 seam fastball which he doesn’t throw as often. He has an 86 MPH change up and an 80 MPH slider that makes it tough for lefties.
