I think it is safe to call the Edgar Renteria-Jair Jurrjens/Gorkys Hernandez deal “the trade that just keeps taking.” There was hope that the Tigers could salvage a couple draft picks out of the trade, but that possibility is now gone as the team has declined to offer Renteria arbitration.
Continue reading No arbitration for Renteria
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Renteria inked by Giants – Tigers get draft picks
UPDATE: It appears the report may not be true. Tim Dierkes keeps updating the link below with more information, so check back. I have to admit that $18 million for Renteria didn’t pass the smell test, but it was the Giants…
It appears that Edgar Renteria is heading back to the National League. The Giants have signed him to a 2 year, $18 million contract that seems pretty pricey given the season he just had. This is good news for the Tigers.
Because Renteria signed with the Giants there is now no ambiguity as to whether or not the Tigers should offer him arbitration and risk him accepting. Assuming that the Tigers do offer arbitration, and there is absolutely no reason why they wouldn’t, they will get 2 draft picks due to Renteria’s type A status.
Because the Giants were pretty awful last year, their first round pick is protected. Instead the Tigers will get their second round pick (4th pick), plus a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds. Maybe they can at least one of those into gold to lessen the sting of losing Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Herandez.
Junkballing: Almost too much to link to
A flurry of link worthy items, plus just being behind in general leads to the mother of all link round-ups:
Injuries – left handed pitcher edition
Bless You Boys picked up a Buster Olney report that scouts were speculating that Dontrelle Willis may be injured. That could certainly be part of his control problems. Then again, Willis has battled increasing control issues the last couple years so it may be a continuation of a trend. But it sounded like Tigers scouts were confident that the problem had been licked. But what if it isn’t?
Assignable cause is always nice when trying to identify shifts in output (I’m an industrial engineer by trade). Usually if you can find the assignable cause and fix it. But in this case fixing it may mean rest & rehab or even surgery if there is an elbow problem.
Big League Stew has some more. Well, not much more but I like BLS and there’s a cool picture.
Things aren’t going well for Clay Rapada either who is experiencing more soreness.
Injury news – right handed pitching edition
Fernando Rodney was examined by the team orthopod and no structural damage was found and he will resume throwing. That’s the good news portion of this update.
Injury news – blogging center fielder subsection
Let’s hope Granderson heals as fast as he gets out of the box for triples. The mending time is estimated to be really quick where he only misses the first week (via John Fuller, his publicist/manager type guy) or it could be a month if Chone Figgins can be used as a comp. While he could probably start swinging the bat right away, it will likely effect his grip strength. And man, I’d imagine hitting in cold weather would be especially painful.
In his stead Edgar Renteria will leadoff and Brandon Inge will manner center field – at least initially. I have a felling there will be some mixing and matching with Ryan Raburn perhaps getting some extra at-bats as well.
Interviews
Speaking of Granderson, The Grandy Report was able to interview him last week. It turns out Granderson’s favorite subject was math. I wonder if he’s a saber?
Also, Dontrelle Willis got together with Ryan Howard and David Wright during a Topps shoot. Willis grabbed the mike and conducted the interviews himself. This interview keeps getting taken down, so catch it while you can.
THE CONTRACT
I think it’s only appropriate that THE TRADE spurred THE CONTRACT. There is little new news about THE CONTRACT except that it is a 7 year extension as I had speculated initially. My guess on how it breaks out is $15 million in 2009 and then $21 million in each of 2010-2015. It hasn’t been officially announced, but it hasn’t been denied. And Cabrera’s Dad seemed to confirm it to a Venezuelan newspaper. (translation via Google)
“We were expecting this contract,” said Cabrera Navas. “There were two very important things for him to accept the deal: first, that there are other Venezuelans, as Magglio (Ordoñez) and Carlos (Guillen), and second, that we have a good chance to win and go to a World Series.”
The story also said that there are incentives for MVPs, All Star Games, and the like.
Mack Avenue Tigers beat me to the punch and rounded up the opinions on the valuation of the deal. The opinions vary greatly. I’m still sticking with my initial feelings that it is a pretty fair valuation for both sides. In terms of Cabrera’s actual value it seems fair. In terms of Cabrera’s perceived value it appears to be favorable for the club.
Leftovers
Finally wrapping this thing up we look to the Marlins who decided to send Cameron Maybin to the minors for more seasoning. Probably a good move and Maybin will probably still be the starting centerfielder by the end of the year. But Jair Jurrjens locked up a spot in the rotation after a strong spring.
And lastly, Brennan Boesch had some bathroom problems today.
Tigers Acquire Edgar Renteria
The Tigers traded for Edgar Renteria. They’ll send the Braves Gorkys Hernandez and Jair Jurrjens.
I’ll have more on this later when I digest it, but wow. Renteria is a nice player and affordable, but the Tigers just traded 2 of their top 4 prospects for a shortstop on the wrong side of 30. This team just got a lot older.
Renteria of course has ties to Dave Dombrowski and Jim Leyland, and Dombrowski has shown a preference for the familiar. Renteria was signed as an amateur free agent in 1992 by Dave Dombrowski (I think Al Avila was a scout at the time, but not sure if he was the one who signed him). And of course Renteria was part of the 1997 Marlins team managed by Leyland.
UPDATE: It appears that the Braves are sending some cash to the Tigers. I find this odd, since the contract is fairly manageable with $9 million owed next year and an $11 million option for 2009. Are the Tigers going cheap now, saving money for another big free agent, inking Granderson/Verlander long term? Odd for cash to change hands in this one.
More later…
It’s later…
Analysis
I continue to waffle on this trade. All along I liked picking up Renteria, but was having a hard time getting comfortable with the price. Granted Jurrjens was likely a 3 or 4 guy in a rotation, but since when did that designation carry an “only” with it? Especially for someone that comes cheap for the next 6 years. But that’s only half of the price.
The Tigers also shipped Gorkys Hernandez, their 2nd best positional prospect. A guy who held his own in the Midwest League at the age of 19. He’s someone with Granderson’s feel in the outfield with Cameron Maybin’s speed. Granted he doesn’t project with a ton of power, but for his age and the park he played in the .391 slugging doesn’t bother me.
Now I can try to balance with my natural fan tendency to overrate my own team’s players by drawing on the negatives in Jurrjens and Hernandez’s profiles. Gorkys needs to add some walks and some power, plus he shouldn’t be expected to contribute at the MLB level until 2010. Jurrjens has dealt with some neck issues each of the last 2 seasons. Maybe it’s a chronic thing?
And I can also justify it by looking at all the Tigers are adding.
More offense?
So in the lineup the Tigers are essentially swapping Sean Casey for Renteria. I’m not too worried about Renteria’s one awful season in the AL. I don’t know if it was a Boston thing, or just a bad season. Either way at this point I’d call it coincidence.
Renteria is coming off the second best season of his career with an impressive .332/.390/.470 line good enough for a 125 OPS+. Since it was an exceptional year, maybe it makes sense to look at Renteria’s performance over the last 3 years which was 298/360/437 – still a nice line. It is 264 runs created and 5.9 runs created per 27 outs.
Sean Casey had 197 runs created over the same span, but battled some health issues so his RC 27 is 5.5. Now I used the quick and dirty TB*OBP calculation, so the difference is probably a little greater when you factor in Renteria’s 37 stolen bases (and 12 caught stealing) versus Casey’s 4 stolen bases and 3 caught stealings.
So the difference in offense between Casey and Renteria over 145 games is about 1 win.
More defense
Acquiring Renteria was necessitated by Carlos Guillen bottoming out defensively. He appeared to have decent range early in the year but various errors (botching routine plays, errant throws, bobbling the transfer) and knees that turned creaky later int he year torpedoed what range he had.
Ultimate Zone Rating data which was released in July had Guillen rated at -26 runs per 150 games. Edgar Renteria at the time was rated at -13 runs per 150 games. Of course Guillen would be a longshot to make it 150 games at short, but if he did the result would likely be worse than -26 runs. And in 2006 Renteria was +6, but in 2005 he was -14. So perhaps the -13 wasn’t a sign of a trend. The fans scouting report rated Renteria a 61 in 2007, but only a 53 in 2006 so I’m not sure where the truth lies. But for the sake of argument let’s use the partial season data rated at 150 games and call it 13 runs or a little more than a win.
Net impact
So in terms of performance the Tigers have added 2 to 2.5 wins. For a team that is on the playoff bubble though that isn’t inconsequential. And Renteria comes with an affordable price tag with $12 million guaranteed over the next 2 years which could go to $20 million if the Tigers exercise a club option. Nate Silver has broken down the dollar implications of the deal and says both teams won in this trade.
Yay or Nay
A tentative yay. I like the acquisition but I don’t like the cost, but I’m not alone in that sentiment. I also agree with Lee who notes that this is a trade we could be talking about for years to come.
Other stuff to consider:
- This ends any A-Rod speculation before it barely got started. I was kind of looking forward to that. It also means that there will be no Jack Wilson speculation which I had my fill of this summer.
- The tigers do have some shortstop candidates in Danny Worth, Mike Hollimon, and Cale Iorg and at least one of the three should be ready by 2010.
- Renteria has the Carlos Guillen seal of approval so there shouldn’t be animosity about the position switch for Guillen.
- Maybe this means that the Tigers are happy with what they’ve seen from other outfield prospects like Deik Scram and Matt Joyce. They aren’t nearly as toolsy as as Hernandez but maybe there is more there than I’m seeing.
Other Coverage
- Talking Chop: Frank Wren already fielding calls from clubs interested in Gorkys
- Take 75 North
- Braves Journal
- Mack Avenue Tigers
Breaking down the Dombrowski pow-wow
Dave Dombrowski held court today in what was deemed an informal availability session and broached a number of topics. Jason Beck was first to the web with the bullet points. Definitely click through to Beck’s reporting, but I’ll weigh in on the bullets as well.
Pudge Rodriguez
No decision yet on Pudge and Dombrowski indicated the team might use their full allotment of time (10 days after the World Series) to make a decision. I just documented my thoughts on the situation and believe Pudge needs to be back next year. Whether that means picking up the option, or buying him out and inking him to a 2 year deal that pays him $7-8 million per – I’d be okay with both.
Todd Jones
Beck says:
They’ve expressed their interest in bringing Todd Jones back for next year, but while he would come back as a closer to start the year, they wouldn’t commit to keeping him there as the season went on.
I like the plan, and don’t want to see Jones blocking Zumaya. At the same time, if Jones is back, and can’t hold down the closer role that probably isn’t a good sign. Also, Jones is looking to see if Atlanta would be interested so he could be closer to home. I’ll be taking a deeper dive look at Jones coming up soon.
The rotation
Three spots are set and allocated to Verlander/Bonderman/Robertson. One spot will go to a veteran – like Kenny Rogers if he chooses to come back or another acquisition if he doesn’t- and the other spot will go to a kid to be determined. While trading Robertson would bring back some value, it also leaves a hole in the rotation and going into the season counting on more than one of Jurrjens/Miller/Bazardo to hold down a roster spot for a full year is a risky proposition. The thought of the three of them holding down one spot and then being available for injuries/tired arms is pretty appealing. Plus a one year deal for Rogers means the whole veteran presence without commiting to someone who might block a youngster when they are ready.
Left Field
Will look to get a left handed bat for the outfield that could be a starter, or a platoon partner for Marcus Thames. The ability to get a starter will probably be directly impacted on the cost of a shortstop, and whether or not they need to fill Kenny’s spot with a longer term contract that would consume more resources.
Jurrjens and Sheffield
Jurrjens will be spending the offseason with Gary Sheffield and working with Sheff’s trainer so that Jurrjens gains strength. I can only wonder how this came about. Did the club initiate it? Did Jurrjens initiate it? Was it Sheffield’s idea? For some reason this just strikes me as a fascinating conversation and a very interesting dynamic. A veteran slugging outfielder near the end of his career teaming up with a 21 year old rookie pitcher from Curacao to build strength. Good times.