Tag Archives: joel zumaya

Injuries, Interviews

Talking injuries with Will Carroll

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Will Carroll is a sports injury guru. He’s been writing the Under The Knife column for Baseball Prospectus for many years, and also compiles the annual Team Health Reports for BP as well. Carroll also authored Saving the Pitcher, a detailed look at pitching injuries, the primary factors for injuries, and strategies to prevent them.

Carroll was kind enough to answer a few questions over email.

DTW: Jeremy Bonderman has experienced elbow pain in two of the last three years. Is this a product of the high proportion of sliders he throws, or is it simply a matter of a young pitcher with quite a few innings on his arm? Could an increased reliance on the change up help him from an injury standpoint?
WC: I think it’s more the latter, which is the more disappointing result. Bonderman has been handled very carefully and smartly, but he’s young and used heavily. (Not abused, just used.) If it’s just inevitable that a heavily used youngster who’s not a freak will break down, well, at least we’ll know.

As for the changeup, no, not really. Glenn Fleisig is the expert here and his research has shown that all pitches thrown well have a smaller than expected difference in force.

DTW: Fernando Rodney has had TJ surgery in his past, and now several bouts of tendinitis. Last year he was basically an every-other-month pitcher and things aren’t starting off well in 2008. Do you see him ever throwing a complete season again?
WC: No, the wear and tear is simply too much. I don’t think he’s ever really been healthy, which is pretty amazing considering how effective he’s been in spurts.
DTW: If you were in charge of pitching in the Tigers farm system, how would you set Rick Porcello’s workload limit?
WC: I wouldn’t limit him.

Ok, that’s a bit dramatic. I did an article at BP a couple years ago which I think is one of the most important I’ve done. (That’s not setting the bar very high.)
I think some type of logical, progressive approach is the future. Some organization is going to do it — and I’m not saying my idea is right, though I think it’s close — and they’re going to be way, way ahead of the game because not only will they know what their pitchers can do, they’ll know how they can use them best.

DTW: When making the decision to go the rest/rehab route or go right to surgery, do different teams have different tendencies? If so how much is dictated by the front office versus the team medical staff versus the specialist (Andrews/Yokum types)?
WC:
No, not really. Almost all teams will try to avoid surgery, which is smart. Sometimes you can, sometimes you can’t. I think some are starting to take a look at the times when surgery is probably the best possible result, but it’s all about the timing. The Curt Schilling situation is one of the toughest ones, where disagreement and varying timing and biases all end up with the player’s career caught in the middle.
DTW: Have you seen any teams make a concerted effort to focus on the mental aspect of the game by bringing psychologists on to the medical staff?
WC:
Several. Not only teams, but agencies. I think the Indians are at the forefront, but there’s a lot of teams that have been doing this quietly.
DTW: I know we’re working with little comparative data here, but give me your odds on Joel Zumaya ever being able to throw 100mph again?
WC: You know, I actually talked to Brian Griese who had similar surgery about this and he thinks it will take Zumaya a full year, but if his mechanics stay sound, Griese thought he could get back to full strength. Take that for what it’s worth.

Thanks to Will for taking the time chat with us. You can find the Tigers Team Health Report at BP.

2008 Season, Injuries, Roster Management

Should Detroit option Zumaya to Toledo?

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One of the benefits of growing your own talent is getting 3 years of quality production at or near the league minimum. Joel Zumaya was a bargain in 2006. In 2007 he didn’t cost the team much, but he didn’t contribute a whole lot either due to the exploding finger. In 2008 he figures to again be affordable, but not particularly productive for a big chunk of the season. Therein lies the problem. The Tigers and Zumaya are poised to waste a good portion of his pre-arb years on the DL.

As a general rule, players become arbitration eligible after 3 years of service time. There’s another caveat where the top 17% (based on days of service) of those players with more than 2, but less than 3 years of time are also eligible. These players are called Super 2’s. Last year the cutoff was 2 years and 131 days of service.

I bring this up because Joel Zumaya is a lock to miss at least two months of the season, or at least 60 days. Which means he’s a near lock to not actually be able to contribute enough days to equate to a Super 2. Zumaya still has 3 options left, never having used one. If the Tigers were to option Zumaya to Toledo for the duration of his DL stint they could delay arbitration by a season.

Now last year when the team had a full 40 man roster, it was advantageous to keep Zumaya on big league roster and place him on the 60 day DL freeing up a spot on the 40 man. It’s why Tony Giarratano was placed on the 60 day DL last year. This year the team has several spots open thanks to THE TRADE and it’s not a consideration.

Now the downside of this type of tactic is that it can be perceived as a jerk move by the player. You not only cut into his earnings in the current season, but it also pushes back his big payday a year. Also, the general impression is that the organization tends to take care of its players. Certainly an image worth maintaining when your ace is about to get more expensive and you’re trying to lock up one of the game’s preeminent hitters long term. Still, from an immediate pure dollars and sense standpoint it does warrant some consideration.

Statistics

Bill James Handbook fun

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Last week one of my favorite publications showed up on my doorstep – The Bill James Handbook. This year’s version doesn’t disappoint. I’ve already dropped references to +/- fielding metrics which are an important reference point for evaluating defense. The usual assortment of win shares, park factors, player stats, and projections are also available. There is also a section on baserunning (the Tigers ranked 6th overall and had the highest percentage of their baserunners score). But my favorite part of the book are the leader boards which feature the top 10 in a number of obscure categories.

I won’t hit everything on the leaderboards, a lot of it is obvious (like Granderson and Ordonez being really good). Plus I don’t want to publish too much content because you should still have some incentive to buy the book. But as a teaser:

Hitting Stats

  • Magglio Ordonez slugged .713 against southpaws which far and away led the league (Frank Thomas was second at .613). Meanwhile Granderson and Ordonez placed 4th and 5th in slugging against righties.
  • Hard to believe it, but Brandon Inge had the 9th best batting average against lefties and the 10th best OBP at .419.
  • Granderson had the highest stolen base success rate and Carlos Guillen had the second lowest. But Guillen had the 8th most steals of 3rd base with 5.
  • Brandon Inge ranked 8th in pitches per plate appearance, and was 5th worst when putting pitches outside of the strikezone in play.
  • The Tigers had 3 of the 6 best first halves in terms of OPS with Ordonez, Gary Sheffield, and Carlos Guillen raking early in the season.
  • Ordonez swung at the first pitch 39.6% of the time which was 5th highest last year. Guillen ranked 9th. Curtis Granderson swung at the first pitch 13.6% which was the 5th lowest rate and Sheffield ranked 9th.

Pitching

  • Justin Verlander ranked 10th in terms of percentage of pitches in the strike zone. He ranked 2nd in terms of pitches thrown faster than 95mph and his 94.8 average fastball was 3rd fastest. But he also threw change ups at the 5th highest rate and curve balls at the 9th highest rate.
  • Jeremy Bonderman threw sliders 34.5% of the time which ranked first. Nate Robertson was 2nd at 22.6%.
  • Even with Joel Zumaya’s injuries and decreased velocity when he came back, he still led the league in 100mph fastballs with 30 and Verlander ranked 2nd with 17.
  • Hitters only posted a .502 OPS against Chad Durbin’s slider, the 3rd best rate in the AL.
  • Only 14.3% of the baserunners that Bobby Seay inherited scored, which was also 3rd best.
  • Nate Robertson sported the 5th slowest average fastball.
Injuries

Joel Zumaya to miss half of 2008

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Joel Zumaya underwent shoulder surgery to repair an injury sustained while moving stuff in the fires.  The procedure was an AC joint reconstruction.  The Acromioclaviclular joint is the joint effected when you hear the term “separated shoulder.”  However this procedure isn’t one that is common amongst pitchers and Will Carroll notes that there aren’t any comps to draw upon.

I’ll have more tonight.

Notes from the conference call:

Dombrowski received the information Monday and talked to Joel on Tuesday. The fires were 2 miles away from his parents home and he was getting items from the attic and the box fell on his shoulder. It happened on Sunday and Sunday night Joel’s father called Kevin Rand to let him know what happened.

Dombrowski got the call that it was a serious situation about 10 minutes after the Renteria press conference ended.

There was no rotator cuff damage, but there is no way to know if he’ll make it back until he gets on the mound again. The doctor thinks he can come back, but there is no way to know until he starts throwing hard again.

Dombrowski is going into the year planning on Zumaya not being available. Right now the focus is on getting Todd Jones and Kenny Rogers back. If they can’t retain Jones they will be “aggressive” in pursuing someone to pitch at the back of the bullpen. The Tigers don’t’ view Fernando Rodney as a potential closer at this point.

Analysis

This stinks.

But beyond that, the Tigers need bullpen help. Duh. I really think the intention all along by the Tigers was to sign Todd Jones to be the transitional closer, but in the event that Jones didn’t want to come they would have gone after an established set up man. Now that changes things. Now it looks like they will be going after the established set up man regardless. As for the closer’s role, it is Jones if he wants it. Dombrowski said as much in today’s call. But if Jones doesn’t return I think the Tigers will jump into the Francisco Cordero/Mariano Rivera fray. That’s what I take away from them being “aggressive.”

Of course this has other implications as well. Instead of the team needing to spend $6 million or so to shore up the bullpen for this coming season, a move for one of the premier closers and a set up guy more than doubles that cost. What impact this has on acquiring a left fielder or starter beyond Kenny Rogers hasn’t been determined yet. It also means that the Tigers stand a good chance of losing their first round draft pick because both Rivera and Cordero are Type A free agents.

MLB Trade Rumors compiled the following list of relievers, their age, and their ranking (A means losing a first round draft pick)

Closers
Armando Benitez (35)
Joe Borowski (37) – $4MM club option for ’08 – Type B
Francisco Cordero (33) – Type A
Octavio Dotel (32) – $5.5MM mutual option for ’08
Eric Gagne (32) – Type B
Hitoki Iwase (33)
Masahide Kobayashi (34)
Todd Jones (40) – Type B
Al Reyes (37) – $1MM club option for ’08 – Type B
Mariano Rivera (38) – Type A
Bob Wickman (39)

Middle relievers
Jeremy Affeldt (29)
Antonio Alfonseca (36)
LaTroy Hawkins (35)
Jorge Julio (29) – Type B
Joe Kennedy (29)
Scott Linebrink (31) – Type A
Troy Percival (39) – Type B
David Riske (31) – Type B
Julian Tavarez (35) – $3.85MM club option for ’08
Mike Timlin (42) – Type B
Luis Vizcaino (31) – Type B
Kerry Wood (31)

Given the message sent by the Renteria trade, I’d be stunned if the Tigers didn’t look outside the organization to fill both spots (considering Jones an outsider at this point) – especially given that Dombrowski is going to operate as if Zumaya won’t be available at all. Trying to mix and match with Eulogio De La Cruz, Jose Capellan, et al was one thing when the team had to adjust in mid season. But with a full off season to work with Dombrowski won’t be content to mix and match and hope with the guys he already has.

Of the above list, in addition to Cordero and Rivera I like Eric Gagne. I don’t think he’s as bad as he showed in Boston. He won’t cost a draft pick, and he could be relatively cheap. Who knows, he may even do a one year deal to re-establish his value like Pudge Rodriguez did with the Marlins in 2003. Jorge Julio has posted solid strike out rates through out his career, but he has struggled with walks at times, and is only 29. And Kerry Wood wouldn’t be a bad option if you didn’t have to rely on him. He has upside and could help in the rotation or out of the pen.

2007 Season, Managing & Strategy, Pitching, Players

Leveraging Todd Jones

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WPA Leaders

Rank Name WPA
1 J.J. Putz 6.17
2 R. Betancourt 5.38
3 Takashi Saito 4.27
4 Heath Bell 4.12
5 Joakim Soria 3.85
6 J. Papelbon 3.72
7 Joe Nathan 3.63
8 F. Rodriguez 2.95
9 Hideki Okajima 2.93
10 Pat Neshek 2.83
11 Carlos Marmol 2.8
12 Brandon Lyon 2.8
13 J. Isringhausen 2.75
14 Manuel Corpas 2.71
15 Tony Pena 2.56
39 Todd Jones 1.57

WPA or win probability added tracks a teams chances of winning over the course of a game and the measure for an individual player is the difference in win probability when a player enters the game compared to when they leave. WPA of .5 represents 1 win. The complete list of WPA reliever leaders can be found at Fangraphs.

Last week Dave Dombrowski indicated that the club would like to have Todd Jones back, but under the condition that he may be moved out of the closer’s role at some point during the season. Right now the ball is in Todd Jones court as he evaluates his options, and tries for a gig closer to his Alabama home. But is a set up role better for Jones than as the 9th inning man?

Not your typical closer

Jones doesn’t possess one trait that is common among closers, an ability to strike hitters out. In 2007 Todd Jones was dead last, by a considerable margin, among closers (or people who finished at least 35 games). His 4.84 was considerably behind David Weathers 5.56. What’s more is that there were 12 closers who’s K-rate was more than double that of Jones.

Still, Jones manages success because of other things he doesn’t do. His renaissance as a closer came in 2005 with the Florida Marlins when he simply stopped walking people. He only issued 25 free passes between 2005 and 2006 in over 130 innings. However in 2007 he struggled with his control, relatively speaking and issued 23 walks in 61.1 innings, and that put him in the bottom half of closers.

So with a bad strike out rate, and a not so good walk rate, he must have had sterling defense behind him right? Not so much. His batting average on balls in play was .299 which ranked in the bottom 3rd, or the top 3rd depending on your point of view, but it’s the bad 3rd regardless.

Look at these numbers, how did Jones manage to have blown save numbers comparable to Francisco Rodriguez and Bobby Jenks? He had 2 things working for him. The first is that he keeps the ball in the park. He only allowed only allowed 3 homers this year, and a slugging percentage of .371 meant that it would take several hits for Jones to blow a save.
Continue reading Leveraging Todd Jones →

2007 Season, Pitching, Players, Research

A different look at Zumaya’s outing

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I think everyone was mighty blown away by Joel Zumaya’s 2 inning save last night. He pounded the strike zone with 100mph plus heaters and buckled knees with his curve ball. But just for fun, and because we can, let’s take a look at all the pitches that made up his night.

I don’t know if you noticed in the playoffs last year, but MLB Gameday started using an enhanced version that had camera’s catching the path of the pitch, the velocity, and the release point. This was kind of a neat feature, but what makes it gold is that the data is captured and stored on MLB.com’s servers. Inspired by the book Baseball Hacks: Tips & Tools for Analyzing and Winning with Statistics, and with some programming of my own, I worked this offseason to be able to capture and analyze this data. Imagine my disappointment when after the first 8 games the Tigers hadn’t had an “enhanced” game. Fortunately they did last night.
Continue reading A different look at Zumaya’s outing →