The last 2 games have featured Magglio Ordonez hitting 3rd and Miguel Cabrera hitting clean-up. That’s going to last awhile, like into next season.
I don’t think lineups make a huge difference, but it never felt right having a hitter like Cabrera batting below the clean-up spot. And with Leyland not liking to shuffle guys, it meant having some unusual players hitting 3rd. No disrespect to guys like Marcus Thames or Ryan Raburn, but when you have Ordonez and Cabrera the previously mentioned guys shouldn’t be pushing them down in the order.
As for Leyland’s thought process for the sequencing? It was up to Magglio.
“I told Magglio, ‘You’ve got your choice of where you can hit, third or fourth.’ He took third.”
As I mentioned I’m not a big lineup guy, so this seems like the perfect way to give veterans a say and keep them happy and comfortable.
In the wake of Miguel Cabrera’s 2 homer performance on Tuesday, we learned a little bit about what Cabrera keeps in his locker and it seems to be an eclectic mix.
He has 3 unopened candy bars. (yeah, yeah, weight jokes, yeah) We don’t know the brands, and I think this is pretty important information.
Voodoo dolls. This was reported by Curtis Granderson. Not sure if the voodoo dolls are of particular people, or if maybe they are generic and wear certain uniforms on certain days. But I do feel somewhat comforted that Cabrera is channeling his inner Pedro Cerrano.
And spotted tonight in his postgame interview, there was a bobblehead that I believe to be Curtis Granderson. It’s unclear if this is in fact one of the voodoo dolls.
So Miguel Cabrera slides into the clean-up spot with Magglio Ordonez hitting the disabled list. And promptly gets hurt himself. The diagnosis is hip flexor and the duration is day-to-day.
To add injury to injury, Pudge Rodriguez has spent the entire game grimacing and moving as if he is also in pain. This included a brief visit from trainer Kevin Rand early in the game.
Yeah, the kids have provided a nice lift filling it, but this is taking things to extremes.
A cornucopia of Tigers news that has come out today. Jim Leyland is prepared to make some changes, even if it means hurting some feelings. The skip says:
“So I’m going to change some things around here and see what happens. I think that’s important. As I said, I don’t know if it’s going to work. I don’t know if it’s going to make people angry, but that’s the way it goes.
“I don’t mean for this to sound negative, I don’t mean it that way, but this isn’t about feelings. It’s beyond worrying about egos. This is about doing the job. I’m going to try some stuff.
“We have a great group of guys and I think they’ll understand. They might not agree with it, but the manager has to do what he thinks is best for the team. If this team is what I think it is, they’ll go along with it.
“We have to get it rolling somehow,” Leyland said. “I’m not really a 40-game guy, or a June 1 guy, but you can’t just sit there when it’s not working.
“My general manager has given me a hell of a team here. I haven’t really coached it to the right flow. But I’m not going to sit still. I don’t want to be patient to a fault.”
One thing you can’t accuse Leyland of this season is being complacent. He’s shuffling batting orders, moving people aroudn the diamond defensively, giving pitchers different roles in the pen. The hope is that something sticks. Some of the moves coming out are:
Jim Leyland dropped Miguel Cabrera to the sixth spot in the lineup. I have to believe that this move is more psychological that strategic. Let me rephrase that. I believe that the implications of this move will be more psychological than strategic.
Lineup configuration has a pretty limited impact on run scoring. Cabrera hasn’t put up his typical numbers, but has still been an offensive force. He has struggled with RISP to the tune of a 639 OPS. If there is a thought that he’s pressing, perhaps moving him down will take pressure off of him to drive in runs. I don’t really believe any of that and chalk it up more to sample size issues. I’m somewhat supported in this because he has a .903 OPS with men on.
Still odd that Cabrera is productive and gets moved from 5th to 6th while Sheffield was allowed to flounder at the 3 spot.
With the off day yesterday Leyland is flipping Jeremy Bonderman and Kenny Rogers in the rotation. I’m guessing the move is 2-fold. First, Rogers struggled a little in his last start against the M’s. He allowed 8 hits, 3 walks, and 4 runs in 5.1 innings on May 21st. Second, Rogers is a Cy Young pitcher in Oakland. In 45 career starts he is 25-4 with a 3.46 ERA.
Supposedly there is another move coming with the pitching staff.
The news out of Lakeland is encouraging for Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney. Both will be embarking on rehab assignments soon. Rodney is likely heading to Toledo while Zumaya will stay in Lakeland to start.
I’d guess that Rodney is probably a week or two away if he is heading to the Mud Hens. But given his problems last year and this year, I’d still be surprised if he made it through the rest of the season.
Regardless, barring setbacks both would be joining the Tigers within a month or so because a rehab assignment can only last 30 days.
In case you hadn’t heard the Tigers traded for Miguel Cabrera this off season. They then signed him to a record contract. Cabrera then felt a lot of pressure to perform, but started to hit better when Jim Leyland told him to relax.
Meanwhile, his offense was coming around when Leyland said Cabrera could be even better if he focused on every at-bat. Since being challenged Cabrera has gone 161/235/161. The slump has columnists calling him a slug and a bust and Cabrera went on the record as missing his Marlins days. But fear not because it smells like he’s on the verge of breaking out of it.
A startling amount of news from the beat writers and analysis from bloggers today. Inge likes catching, Cabrera at first base, and more.
Inge says catching is fun
Brandon Inge is just too fascinating to resist. The very different views of his defense, the despair over his offense, the sympathy and lack of sympathy over his plight to get traded, his early season success while essentially being a full time player the first 25 games, people clamoring for Inge to return to third base, it’s the gift that keeps on giving for bloggers. Now it appears that Inge thinks catching is cool.
Inge said Tuesday that he still prefers to play third base — “my first love” — and that a chance to play at third regularly could persuade him to play elsewhere.
“Yeah, yeah, I’m not gonna lie,” Inge said, “but I’m good with the catching, too. I don’t like sitting.
“And I love Detroit. I love everything about it.”
It’s quite the shift from his stance this spring when he was catching and complaining about it, and doing it enough to draw ire from me. He later backed off those statements when it became clear Vance Wilson wouldn’t be breaking camp with the team.
That was pretty much my reaction when I heard the news on my drive home from the game that Miguel Cabrera is the new first baseman and Carlos Guillen will be moving to third. Color me surprised.
According to Beck Guillen saw it coming and Cabrera is okay with switching positions.
Granted, Guillen had a bad first week of the season manning first base as his foot work kept brining him into the baseline. But since going to Boston it had appeared that the situation had been resolved for the most part. While Guillen was being taken out of games late it was usually for a pinch runner which I attributed to the hamstring problem, not as a defensive switch (though it certainly had that benefit when Inge came into play third).
What makes the move surprising is that
1. Guillen had all kinds of trouble fielding, transferring, and throwing the ball to first base last year. A move to third would seem to present many of the same issues.
2. The Tigers had to know that Miguel Cabrera wasn’t a good fielding third baseman both when they traded for him and when they signed him long term so they can’t have been surprised by what they saw this first month.
3. I’m not really sure that this solves any problems.
Since the Tigers are comfortable enough to rock the boat with Cabrera and Guillen, why not a platoon based on the handedness of the pitcher? Guillen gets third with a lefty on the mound and Cabrera gets it with a righty? At this point would it be that far fetched?
With this afternoon’s loss to the Blue Jays the Tigers record in day games now stands at a remarkable 0-10. A quick check of the splits reveals that the Tigers have been outscored 57 to 18 in day games. Yes, the offense has mustered less than 2 runs a game before the sun sets.
After dusk the Tigers are 6-3 and have scored 59 runs while allowing 60. So the pitching has been pretty inadequate no matter what time it is. The differences in offense however are dramatic to say the least. The following numbers aren’t inclusive of the Sunday tilt: Continue reading Tigers have nocturnal bats→
PREGAME:: A win, a win, my kingdom for a win. After having no luck with the Royals the Tigers turn their attention to the White Sox. For those worried that the Tigers have already dug themselves an insurmountable hole, fear not. Jamie Samuelson of WDFN and the Freep did some research and found that way back in 1998 the Yankees started 0-3 before going on to be one of the best teams in modern times. Those Yankees did win the 4th game – in extra innings.
The Tigers will be facing Jose Contreras. Now the last time the Tigers faced Contreras it was a happy day. It was the last day of 2007. The Tigers won. Placido Polanco got his 200 hits, Guillen his 100 RBIs, Granderson finished at .300, Magglio won the batting title, and Mike Rabelo hit his first homer.
Nate Robertson takes the mound for Detroit. Coincidentally he was on the mound for that same game and picked up the win with a 6 2/3 inning effort.
Miguel Cabrera is back in the lineup as DH and batting third while Clete Thomas gets another start in center field.
POSTGAME: I have to give Jason Grilli some credit, he got people to stop talking about the offense. There are degrees of blame here, but I’ve never seen 3 pitches do so much damage. I can’t fault Leyland for not pulling Grilli before the damage had been done, but leaving him in beyond that was asinine. If it weren’t for bad baserunning by the White Sox Grilli might still be out there.
I understand the vitriol and the desire to let Grilli go. I had the same thoughts not only today, but at times last year as well. But here’s what sucks, there isn’t anyone else. If Francisco Cruceta were available, or if Jordan Tata didn’t have a broken hand then by all means let him go. But this is a team with Aquilino Lopez already on the roster.
What I have a bigger problem with is Leyland’s erratic use of the pen. Using Zach Miner for only one inning is a waste in that situation. The game was tied and there were still 3 innings left in regulation. He’s also burned Bobby Seay for one batter appearances. Never mind the fact that Seay is one of the better relievers at his disposal.
Other observations:
Robertson looked stellar at times, but awful at other times. Five runs and five innings wasn’t good enough.
Nice defense by the Tigers today with Brandon Inge starting a tough double play and Carlos Guillen making a nice pick on a throw in the baseline from Robertson.
The bats are waking up with every Tiger but Edgar Renteria getting a hit. They were also pretty selective with the team picking up 6 walks.
Relievers not named Jason Grilli were quite good with Miner, Bautista, and Jones going 3 scoreless innings.
I read some of the comments that the Tigers seemed to be rushing their at-bats after the homer. I have to say I disagree. The 9th inning they battled. Carlos Guillen worked a 10 pitch walk. Ordonez hit a line drive to center field. Cabrera walked. And Renteria hit a liner that Jermaine Dye made a diving play on. They didn’t exactly roll over against a tough pitcher.
It’s kind of anti-climactic at this point, but the Miguel Cabrera deal has officially been announced. The deal is for 7 years and $141 million beyond the 1 year deal he signed for 2008.
As speculated correctly here (I’m so rarely right I feel the need to claim it), $15 million is due in 2009. The Freep has the breakdown of the remaining years which range from $20 to $22 million a year. I’ve updated the Payroll page to reflect this. It is worth noting that the Tigers have $114 million committed to 13 players (including Porcello and a Renteria option) in 2009 and $94 million committed in 2010. This team is built to win for the next 3 years.
There is what the Freep deemed a limited no trade clause. It’s described as the Tigers being able to trade Cabrera to 10 teams without his permission. I’d call that partial instead of limited, but that’s semantics.
In a separate article the Freep detailed that had the deal not been done now, it might not have gotten done at all. Certainly not at the same price anyways. Cabrera wasn’t going to negotiate during the season, and had he waited until next offseason, free agency would have only been one year away.
As for the whether or not it was a good deal, it’s being praised by those who crunchthe numbers.
A flurry of link worthy items, plus just being behind in general leads to the mother of all link round-ups:
Injuries – left handed pitcher edition
Bless You Boys picked up a Buster Olney report that scouts were speculating that Dontrelle Willis may be injured. That could certainly be part of his control problems. Then again, Willis has battled increasing control issues the last couple years so it may be a continuation of a trend. But it sounded like Tigers scouts were confident that the problem had been licked. But what if it isn’t?
Assignable cause is always nice when trying to identify shifts in output (I’m an industrial engineer by trade). Usually if you can find the assignable cause and fix it. But in this case fixing it may mean rest & rehab or even surgery if there is an elbow problem.
Big League Stew has some more. Well, not much more but I like BLS and there’s a cool picture.
Things aren’t going well for Clay Rapada either who is experiencing more soreness.
Injury news – right handed pitching edition
Fernando Rodney was examined by the team orthopod and no structural damage was found and he will resume throwing. That’s the good news portion of this update.
Injury news – blogging center fielder subsection
Let’s hope Granderson heals as fast as he gets out of the box for triples. The mending time is estimated to be really quick where he only misses the first week (via John Fuller, his publicist/manager type guy) or it could be a month if Chone Figgins can be used as a comp. While he could probably start swinging the bat right away, it will likely effect his grip strength. And man, I’d imagine hitting in cold weather would be especially painful.
In his stead Edgar Renteria will leadoff and Brandon Inge will manner center field – at least initially. I have a felling there will be some mixing and matching with Ryan Raburn perhaps getting some extra at-bats as well.
Interviews
Speaking of Granderson, The Grandy Report was able to interview him last week. It turns out Granderson’s favorite subject was math. I wonder if he’s a saber?
Also, Dontrelle Willis got together with Ryan Howard and David Wright during a Topps shoot. Willis grabbed the mike and conducted the interviews himself. This interview keeps getting taken down, so catch it while you can.
THE CONTRACT
I think it’s only appropriate that THE TRADE spurred THE CONTRACT. There is little new news about THE CONTRACT except that it is a 7 year extension as I had speculated initially. My guess on how it breaks out is $15 million in 2009 and then $21 million in each of 2010-2015. It hasn’t been officially announced, but it hasn’t been denied. And Cabrera’s Dad seemed to confirm it to a Venezuelan newspaper. (translation via Google)
“We were expecting this contract,” said Cabrera Navas. “There were two very important things for him to accept the deal: first, that there are other Venezuelans, as Magglio (Ordoñez) and Carlos (Guillen), and second, that we have a good chance to win and go to a World Series.”
The story also said that there are incentives for MVPs, All Star Games, and the like.
Mack Avenue Tigers beat me to the punch and rounded up the opinions on the valuation of the deal. The opinions vary greatly. I’m still sticking with my initial feelings that it is a pretty fair valuation for both sides. In terms of Cabrera’s actual value it seems fair. In terms of Cabrera’s perceived value it appears to be favorable for the club.
Leftovers
Finally wrapping this thing up we look to the Marlins who decided to send Cameron Maybin to the minors for more seasoning. Probably a good move and Maybin will probably still be the starting centerfielder by the end of the year. But Jair Jurrjens locked up a spot in the rotation after a strong spring.
ESPN.com is reporting that Miguel Cabrera and the Tigers have agreed to an 8 year contract totaling $153.3 million. The deal is to be announced Monday pending a physical.
This is of course the biggest deal in franchise history, and it’s befitting a franchise caliber player. Locking Cabrera up long term was no doubt a priority from the moment THE TRADE was completed back in early December.
We’ll have to wait for the details of course, but I’d assume that this contract supplants the one year deal signed in January. Meaning that Cabrera will be donning the English D through 2015. So the Tigers lock up one of the premier hitters in the game for his age 25-32 seasons. What’s not to like?
If it is in fact replacing the existing deal, or essentially a 7 year extension on the $11.3 million he’s going to make this year, then it is $20 million per year from 2009 on. The chances of him reaching $20 million in 2009, the last year of arbitration, are small. Cabrera would probably be in line for something around $14-15 million next year. But even if they are paying more in ’09 it still looks to be a solid deal in aggregate.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system only projects out 7 years, but for each of those years Cabrera projects to be a $20 million a year player according to the BP metric MORP. Tom Tango’s salary chart reveals that an 8 year – $151 million contract implies 5 wins above replacement. BP sees Cabrera as more than 5.3 wins above replacement through 2014. I don’t trust BP’s defensive metrics though and would probably discount their WARP total accordingly.
Also, the BP method of WARP differs from the method that Tango employs. His methods can be found in the comments here. I tried to follow them (could have botched them as well) and pegged Cabrera between 4.5 to 5 wins above replacement. So depending on the methodology the numbers say the deal is either reasonable/slight overpay or quite fair.
The one thing that the pure WARP numbers don’t extrapolate is the impact of having a player with extraordinary superstar abilities. The wins and losses are accounted for, but not the good will built with the fan base for securing a player of that magnitude. Or the potential revenue associated with having a hall of fame quality hitter through the prime of his career.
Committing that many years and dollars to any player is a little scary (look what happened to Juan Gonzalez). But if you’re going to do it, then do it with a 25 year old player who already has 4 years of offensive excellence under his belt.
News, views, and analysis on the Detroit Tigers and baseball
With this afternoon’s loss to the Blue Jays the Tigers record in day games now stands at a remarkable 0-10. A quick check of the splits reveals that the Tigers have been outscored 57 to 18 in day games. Yes, the offense has mustered less than 2 runs a game before the sun sets.
