Tag Archives: placido polanco

Fan Experience, Tiger History

Friday Warm-Up

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With the thermometer rocketing all the way up to 7 degrees this morning, and spring training a few weeks away here are some items to try and keep you warm on a Friday. No heavy analysis here, just some diversions.

The Tunes

I was surfing around the WDFN website and came across some great audio. They have a compilation of the Tigers walk-up music. I parsed out a couple of my favorites.

Omar Infante: I know he’s gone now, but I’ll miss his music the most.
[audio:infante.mp3|autostart=no]

Placido Polanco:
[audio:polanco.mp3|autostart=no]

I don’t think I picked those two because of particular fondness for salsa music. It’s just that those two are specific to nights at the ballpark. Comerica Park is the only place I hear those songs and so they help to take me to my happy place.

The Words

I’ve been reading Inside Pitch: Roger Craig’s ’84 Tiger Journal and it’s been great. I was 10 during that season, so while I remember all the winning and the players, I don’t remember the details.

Craig offers a number of insights and anecdotes that add a lot of flavor to the season. I didn’t know that Jack Morris went on a media boycott for a big chunk of the season. I knew Willie Hernandez won the MVP, but didn’t realize just how remarkable his season was (coincidentally Mop Up Duty just wrote an article highlighting that season). And I had no idea that a police officer stopped Craig and Sparky Anderson while they were walking in Baltimore – because they were shirtless.

It’s out of publication, but used copies can be picked up for as little as a penny at Amazon.

The sights

Roger DeWitt (aka Huey Taxi) continues to hang out at Tiger Town in Lakeland and has been snapping photos as the players start to migrate down there. Also, fantasy camps are now running so he has some shots of old time Tigers as well. Catch it on Flickr.

2007 Season, Defense, Statistics

The Tigers Defense – What are the Odds?

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Over the last month or so, David Pinto has released the majority of his studies using his probabilistic model of range (PMR). Today we’ll delve into the Tigers defense using this advanced metric.

I’ve explained PMR in the past, but a refresher is probably worthwhile. The PMR model uses data play by play data collected by Baseball Info Solutions. Pinto uses 3 years of this data to find out the probability that a batted ball will be converted into an out. In doing this he accounts for the handedness of the batter and pitcher, the type of hit (grounder, fly, etc), how hard the ball was hit, and the direction the ball was hit. The beauty of the system is that it provides context to the data. Players who have harder to field opportunities get credit it for it. It also removes the subjectivity of an official scorers decision.

What the system doesn’t do is account for throwing ability for outfielders. So a Jacque Jones upgrade in range would be lessened by a weak throwing arm.

On to the data. The first table shows how the Tigers fared by position.

Position In play Plays Exp Plays DER Exp DER Rate Runs
Pitcher 4486 167 159.73 0.037 0.036 104.55 5.5
First Base 4486 296 310.16 0.066 0.069 95.44 -10.7
Second Base 4486 505 494.43 0.113 0.11 102.14 8.0
Shortstop 4486 517 536.95 0.115 0.12 96.28 -15.0
Third Base 4486 446 426.09 0.099 0.095 104.67 15.9
Left Field 4486 327 331.6 0.073 0.074 98.61 -3.8
Centerfield 4486 468 445.78 0.104 0.099 104.98 23.0
Right Field 4486 318 319.88 0.071 0.071 99.41 -1.6

Continue reading The Tigers Defense – What are the Odds? →

2007 Season, Defense

Two Tigers win Gold Gloves, but not the right two

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Ivan Rodriguez and Placido Polanco were honored today as MLB announced the Gold Glove winners. For Pudge it was his 13th while it was Polanco’s first. But were they the most deserving Tigers? Rob Neyer took a look at the inherent biases or trends in the voting. A couple of these helped the Tigers (previous winner, fielding percentage, offensive contribution), and a couple hurt the Tigers.

Pudge Rodriguez

We’ll start with Pudge Rodriguez who saw his caught stealing rate drop to 30.9%. That was still a little above average in 2007 when base stealers in the AL were successful 73.2% of the time, but hardly Gold Glove worthy. Kenji Johjima gunned down 46.5% of would be base stealers. Even dubious stats like passed balls didn’t favor Rodriguez as he was charged with 7 while Johjima was charged with 5 in 54 more innings. And that isn’t even inclusive of the numerous wild pitches which could have been scored either way. Then throw in 6 errors and the picture is bleak for Pudge who won the award entirely off his reputation.

Placido Polanco

Moving to Placido Polanco, his win was certainly defensible. While errors and fielding percentage is a flawed stat, making it though a season without an error is still a remarkable achievement. While the error that was charged to Polanco and later assigned to Marcus Thames is certainly debatable, it was the only instance that I can recall where the streak was helped by the scorer. Throw in Polanco’s .341 batting average and it is easy to see why he would garner votes. But in looking at other metrics he lagged his peers.

Looking at +/- in the The Bill James Handbook 2008, Polanco was a respectable +10. That trailed Aaron Hill (+22), Mark Ellis (+19), and Robinson Cano (+17) considerably. If you don’t like +/- those same 3 appear as the best (but in a different order) using UZR as well. Polanco rates a little better using Revised Zone Rating, but he still is sandwiched between Ellis and Hill and made over 100 fewer plays than Ellis and nearly 150 fewer plays than Hill.

I like Polanco and am happy to see him receive some recognition. But the evidence just doesn’t show him as the best fielding 2nd baseman in the AL.

Brandon Inge

Now it’s time to stir the pot with some Brandon Inge controversy. Adrian Beltre took home the hardware for third basemen this year. Beltre is an excellent defender so this isn’t a bad choice at all. The trouble is, as Neyer pointed out, the award was a year late. Beltre should have won it in 2006. This year Brandon Inge beat him in UZR (+12 versus +5). Inge also beat him in +/- as Brandon amassed a +22, second only to Pedro Feliz. Nick Punto was next closest in the AL at +10 while Beltre was a solid +7. Inge was 2nd in the AL in RZR behind Mike Lowell and in total made 45 more plays on balls in his zone than any other AL third sacker. Beltre bests him only in plays on balls made out of his zone, 64 to 63. But even in fielding percentage where Inge typically gets dinged, he posted a .959 to Beltre’s .958.

Brandon Inge was deserving of the award this year, and it wasn’t a 1 year fluke. Looking at the 3 year +/- numbers only Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Adam Everett, and Pedro Feliz have a better rate than Inge.

Curtis Granderson

This one is the hardest to figure. Granderson seemed to do many of the things that help you win gold gloves.

Solid offensive season? Check. He was top 10 in slugging, OPS, Runs, Total Bases, and Triples. Plus he had that whole quad-20 thing which was arbitrary, but still remarkable and attention gathering.
Winning team? Check. The Tigers were in contention all year and received plenty of attention.
Highlight plays? Check. His homer rob of Wily Mo Pena was the #2 web gem. Plus he had some high profile diving catches including a triple/run saving catch on Sunday night baseball and a game saving catch in an August pennant race tilt against the Indians.

Not that any of the above are legitimate reasons for winning, but they do seem to resonate well with voters.

As for his actual case, he had the highest RZR in the American League regardless of position.

Looking at +/- he was second only to Coco Crisp (also a deserving candidate) at +21 just behind Crisp’s +22. Gold Glove winner Ichiro was at +4 and other winners Grady Sizemore and Torii Hunter weren’t in the top 10. (the annual only lists the top ten and bottom 5 at each position.

Looking at UZR, Sizemore rates well at +26 leading AL centerfielders with Granderson second at +18 (Crisp and Dejesus tied for 3rd at +13). Meanwhile Ichiro was -14.

If you’re skeptical of the advanced metrics, that is understandable. When some players rate inconsistently across them it is hard to know where the truth lies. But Granderson rated at or near the top across the board, which is more than can be said for the other fielders except for Crisp.

I’m not overly upset with the results. The Gold Gloves have long been flawed awards. But when someone describes a player as a gold glover it is important to note whether they are using the generic term for a very good defender, or whether they are actually toting someone’s hardware. The former probably carries more weight even if the latter carries more prestige.

2007 Season, Game Post

Game 162: Tigers at White Sox

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PREGAME: Sigh.

List of team and offensive feats that may happen today so there is something to root for:

  • Magglio Ordonez needs to not go 0 for 6 and Ichiro Suzuki needs to not make an out and the Tigers have their first batting champ since 1961.  Maggs is also looking to see if he can add on at all, and perhaps move ahead of Norm Cash’s .361 average.
  • Placido Polanco needs one more hit to reach 200.  If he gets to 200, it will mark the first time since 1937 2 Tigers have finished with 200 or more hits.
  • Curtis Granderson is at .299 and will try to push that to .300
  • Ordonez needs 3 RBI to become only the 4th Tiger to ever drive in 140 runs in a season
  • The team is 2 doubles shy of matching the team record for doubles in a season set in 1934
  • The team has 1634 hits which is the highest total since the 1934 club notched 1638

Game Time 2:05
DET @ CHW, Sunday, September 30, 2007 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

POSTGAME: Considering what the Tigers had left to play for, everything came up roses today. Polanco got his 200th hit and finished an errorless season. Guillen got his 2 RBIs. Granderson finished over .300 picking up 3 hits (not to mention a walk, a HBP, and 3 steals).

And Magglio Ordonez already had pretty much locked up the batting title, but a 3 hit day pushed his average to .363. That’s the highest mark for a Tiger since Charlie Gehringer’s .371 in 1937. In case you missed it, FSN Detroit was cutting into the Venezuelan broadcast after each Ordonez hit, and while my Spanish skills are limited to what I learned in high school (which has been refreshed by Dora the Explorer), there was no mistaking the excitement.

Even Mike Rabelo managed to get a homer today, and while the bullpen was going crazy for him, his own teammates were giving him the silent treatment.

It really wasn’t the way anybody wanted to the end the season, but all things considered they made the best of what they had today. And it was fun. It was fun watching the team having fun. Exactly 6 months until we get to start it up again.

2007 Season, Game Post

Game 161: Tigers at White Sox

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PREGAME: So Jim Leyland announced that Magglio Ordonez wouldn’t be playing tonight taking away the most compelling story line for the Tigers. I guess we’ll just have to settle for seeing if the Tigers can solve the riddle that is Gavin Floyd. Floyd has allowed 1 run in his last 2 starts combined against Detroit. Floyd has a 5.71 ERA overall.

For the Tigers it will be Justin Verlander. Verlander struggled with the White Sox last year, but allowed 3 runs in 7 innings in each of his 2 starts against the Sox this year.

DET @ CHW, Saturday, September 29, 2007 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

POSTGAME: Justin Verlander had a solid night with the only blemish coming on a Thome-esque 2 run homer. It did take him 117 pitches to get through 6 innings, but he picked up 7 strike outs along the way.

For the Tigers the offense came via solo homers by Carlos Guillen and Marcus Thames, and that was it for the good guys scoring.

Doug Eddings had a poor game umping at second base, taking down Jermaine Dye and blowing a call in the 9th inning that ultimately hurt the Tigers. Eddings is famous/infamous for hit controversial call in the 2005 World Series. He’s also the ump who had the stopwatch on Rafael Betancourt.

That said, if Rodney hadn’t walked Darin Erstad, or if Ryan Raburn picks up the ball in right field, maybe we’re still playing.

2007 Season, Game Post

Game 128: Yankees at Tigers

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PREGAME: The Tigers take another crack at Roger Clemens who they had no trouble hitting last week, they just had trouble scoring. The Tigers mustered 10 hits in 6 innings, but only 2 runs thanks to 8 strikeouts which all seemed to come with guys on base.

For the Tigers it will be Andrew Miller making his fast start since going on the DL on August 4th. Despite the great stuff, Miller struggles a little to put guys away and his lack of command can lead to hefty pitch counts. He hasn’t recorded an out after the 5th inning since July 6th.

I’ll be heading down to this game, and hopefully the result will be similar to when I saw Clemens pitch against the Tigers last year.

Who’s your Tiger tonight? I’m going out on a limb and going with Brandon Inge.

Game Time 7:05
NYY @ DET, Friday, August 24, 2007 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

POSTGAME: You know you got your money’s worth when on the way home from a game you start to ponder where it ranks in terms of the greatest games you’ve ever witnessed live. When you’re doing at at 4:00am, you know it’s a special situation.

First things first, thanks to all of you for the awesome comments throughout the game last night. I was reading them on my Blackberry throughout the night and was amazed so many of us were toughing it out together.

On to the game, I made several good decisions last night. First, I had an unused ticket and was really debating taking my 6 year old son. I ended up not doing it, because while I love him to death and love going to games with him, this was the first time since Opening Day I had plans to go with my friends and I just didn’t want to be a dad that night. Second, we took a couple cars to the game because one friend had commitments in the morning and we didn’t know how late he’d want to stay. Worked out great with the one friend being able to leave at 8:30 when he recognized any baseball would be way late. So those staying were happy to be stayinig, and no one had to leave prematurely.

The theme for the night was pretty much, “there’s weird s*** happening tonight” and that held up throughout the game. Witness:

  • Placido Polanco makes an error. That never happens.
  • Pudge battles back from an 0-2 count to take a walk. That never happens.
  • The game started at 11:05.
  • Jason Grilli pitches not only a scoreless inning in Comerica Park, but he does it uneventfully.
  • Pudge took another walk. Intentional and all, but still.
  • I’m drinking coffee at a game in August – normally an activity reserved for those cold nights in April or September

So there we were at 2:30 in the morning concocting the most improbable ways for the Tigers to pull this off. Like having the Tigers load the bases against Mariano Rivera and then have Inge come through. Well, that one got half way there, and only some bad luck kept it from coming through.

Still the crowd stayed, and sure it was whittled down after a while. After that 10th inning the numbers really dwindled and I said to the usher, this place looks like 2003 right now. But it sounded much louder. And at that point everyone had formed this big kind of friendship, the kind of friendship that can only come from staying at a ballpark until ridiculous hours of the morning as everyone individually questions their sanity for staying and yet being too afraid to leave and miss something. It was kind of like one of those West Coast Red Wing playoff games that goes into OT, and you think to yourself “I can’t quit now, I’ve made it this far.”

Fortunately for those who stayed, they got the pay off. After a nice walk by Polanco it looked like a hit and run sign was missed with Sean Casey up and Polanco was picked off. And the Tigers went from a runner on 1 out situation to a 2 out none on situation. As so often is the case, the next batter gets a single after the runner is wiped off the bases.

I was imploring Leyland to pinch run for Casey, figuring that a gapper would go to waste with Casey on the basepaths. Instead Leyland stuck with Casey who managed to go first to third with relative ease on a blooper. Setting the stage for the Carlos Guillen. When he hit it I didn’t know if it was gone. I just new it was well hit and I didn’t care if it were a homer, I just wanted it to get over Matsui’s head. When it landed on the roof of the bullpen it was euphoria, it was relief, it was “I get to go home now, but I’m not tired anymore,” it was so worth it all.

I know the above thoughts are incoherent, but I’m working on a couple hours of sleep right now. For the bullets:
Continue reading Game 128: Yankees at Tigers →