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Fictionalizing Jeter

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I’m sure many of you have seen the Gatorade commercial featuring numerous dramatic stills. It came to my attention when Ian blogged about it recently. The commercial is below. In the spot it appears that Jeter notches a game winning hit off of Todd Jones with Carlos Guillen turning away in disappointment.

Through the wonder of Baseball Reference PI, we can see that such a hit never happened. Looking at each match-up between the two, there have been 16 in total, 12 while Jones was with the Tigers, and only 2 while Jones and Guillen were with the Tigers. As for the two at-bats in question Jeter had a ground out and a fly out.

So I guess I still have the same question Ian did…why the Tigers and why Jones? Here’s hoping that at least Jones got paid for it. And I guess the implication is that if Jones would have had Gatorade things would have turned out differently.

2008 Season, Contracts, Trades

Jones’n a day late

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The Tigers make 2 moves, and my internet connection flakes out that night. As such, I’ll just wrap the analysis into one post. Before getting into the individual evaluations I wanted to note that with the Todd Jones signing, the Tigers payroll has eclipsed the $100 million mark. I have it pegged at $102 right now (not counting the relief the Cubs are sending in the Jacque Jones deal.

Todd Jones

I can definitely see some merit in this signing. It’s a one year deal and at $7 million it is certainly palatable – even if it’s over market value. With a healthy Zumaya, this deal makes all kinds of sense. The veteran comes back for one more year to help transition to the young gun. Trouble is, we don’t know now if that gun will be firing bullets or blanks or anything.

Because of the uncertainty surrounding Zumaya, I feel the Tigers should have gone after Francisco Cordero. The Tigers very well may end up in a situation where they will be looking for a free agent closer next year anyways if Zumaya can’t comeback or isn’t ready to assume closing responsibilities. In a year that the Tigers were clearly in “go for it” mode, getting a top shelf closer would have fit the bill. If Zumaya does come back, you have a pretty solid bullpen – especially as Fernando Rodney becomes a free agent in 2010.

Bill James projects Cordero to throw 61 innings with a FIP (fielding independent pitching) of 3.15. Assuming a league average FIP of 4.43 that would make Cordero worth about one more win than Todd Jones. Jones projects to a 3.77 FIP.

Still, Cordero isn’t a sure thing. He had a bad year in 2006 when he blew 11 saves. It’s probably an anomaly, but it’s out there. Also, Cordero would have wanted to come to the Tigers. It isn’t the laughable proposition it was 3 years ago, but there are no guarantees.

There is value in the Tigers moving quickly to fill a need. Plus Dave Dombrowski and Jim Leyland have a penchant for the familiar making them comfortable with Todd Jones. As for the $7 million, the Tigers probably overpaid. Jones is about one win above replacement level. Assuming a win in the free agent market is worth $4.4 million then Jones salary should be about $4.8 million (you need to add the major league minimum to the base).

As long as Todd Jones can continue to keep his slugging against south of .400, and if he can limit the walks, the should be okay in 2008.

Jacque Jones for Omar Infante

My initial reaction to this trade was that I liked it, and that has held up over the last day. I like Infante, and at age 25 there is a still a chance he could be a productive major league player. But it was clear that isn’t wasn’t going to happen for him here in Detroit. Plus he’ll be in his second year of arbitration. Plus, the Tigers have a couple players who could fill the utility role for cheap. So even though Infante may have some value to some club, he didn’t have a lot of value to the Tigers. That they got a real major leaguer in return is a coup.

That major leaguer of course is Jacque Jones. The stuff to like about Jones is that he is a solid defender who can play all 3 outfield positions. But his arm has him better suited to center of left. He’s also left handed, which is helpful for the Tigers.

If the Tigers deploy him as part of a platoon, they have the makings of an acceptable offensive outfield. Jones against righties has hit 294/342/483. Meanwhile Marcus Thames against lefties is 263/333/512. For a total cost of $5 million or so a combined 280/335/490 line would fit nicely in this lineup.

The concern with Jones of course is that his slugging fell off the map last year when he only hit 5 homers. It was a Sean Casey-ish year, but it wasn’t nearly as conspicuous as he played a large chunk in centerfield. Whether it was an anomaly or aging remains to be seen. It’s also worth noting that Jones posted the best walk to strikeout ratio of his career last year. For what it’s worth James projects a 278/332/433 line but without facing lefties he has a chance to better that.

So I give the trade a thumbs up. Still, I’ll miss Infante’s salsa at-bat music this season.

Other stuff

  • Craig Monroe is now a Minnesota Twin. Best of luck to Craig. He always has mashed in the Metrodome where he’s hit 305/351/520 for his career so this could be a good fit.
  • The Tigers completed the Roman Colon trade by acquiring Danny Christensen from the Royals. Christensen is left handed and 24. The former appears to be his most dominant trait. He struggled in AA last year as he gave up a ton of hits, 23 of them for homers in 140 innings.
Contracts, Players

Tiger sign Todd Jones

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The Tigers inked Todd Jones to a 1 year deal. If you’re keeping score at home, that’s 2 Joneses today. I’ll have more tonight. In the meantime here is a post looking at Jones’ 2007 season.

Conference Call Notes

  • People are happy. Todd is happy. Dave is happy.
  • Jones’ kids are excited because they are friends with the other Tigers’ kids.
  • Dombrowski on getting other relievers: number one priority is getting a starting pitcher right now. He’s not forgetting about the bullpen, but feels that with Todd Jones and Fernando Rodney the pen is solid. (He also cited the experience that Zach Miner and Jason Grilli got last year). My take: it depends how much they spend on a starting pitcher as to what they’ll do with the pen.
  • Gotta run and will update with other notes later tonight

UPDATE: Flaky internet connection killed any updates last night. I’ll analyze both Jones transactions tonight.

Injuries

Joel Zumaya to miss half of 2008

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Joel Zumaya underwent shoulder surgery to repair an injury sustained while moving stuff in the fires.  The procedure was an AC joint reconstruction.  The Acromioclaviclular joint is the joint effected when you hear the term “separated shoulder.”  However this procedure isn’t one that is common amongst pitchers and Will Carroll notes that there aren’t any comps to draw upon.

I’ll have more tonight.

Notes from the conference call:

Dombrowski received the information Monday and talked to Joel on Tuesday. The fires were 2 miles away from his parents home and he was getting items from the attic and the box fell on his shoulder. It happened on Sunday and Sunday night Joel’s father called Kevin Rand to let him know what happened.

Dombrowski got the call that it was a serious situation about 10 minutes after the Renteria press conference ended.

There was no rotator cuff damage, but there is no way to know if he’ll make it back until he gets on the mound again. The doctor thinks he can come back, but there is no way to know until he starts throwing hard again.

Dombrowski is going into the year planning on Zumaya not being available. Right now the focus is on getting Todd Jones and Kenny Rogers back. If they can’t retain Jones they will be “aggressive” in pursuing someone to pitch at the back of the bullpen. The Tigers don’t’ view Fernando Rodney as a potential closer at this point.

Analysis

This stinks.

But beyond that, the Tigers need bullpen help. Duh. I really think the intention all along by the Tigers was to sign Todd Jones to be the transitional closer, but in the event that Jones didn’t want to come they would have gone after an established set up man. Now that changes things. Now it looks like they will be going after the established set up man regardless. As for the closer’s role, it is Jones if he wants it. Dombrowski said as much in today’s call. But if Jones doesn’t return I think the Tigers will jump into the Francisco Cordero/Mariano Rivera fray. That’s what I take away from them being “aggressive.”

Of course this has other implications as well. Instead of the team needing to spend $6 million or so to shore up the bullpen for this coming season, a move for one of the premier closers and a set up guy more than doubles that cost. What impact this has on acquiring a left fielder or starter beyond Kenny Rogers hasn’t been determined yet. It also means that the Tigers stand a good chance of losing their first round draft pick because both Rivera and Cordero are Type A free agents.

MLB Trade Rumors compiled the following list of relievers, their age, and their ranking (A means losing a first round draft pick)

Closers
Armando Benitez (35)
Joe Borowski (37) – $4MM club option for ’08 – Type B
Francisco Cordero (33) – Type A
Octavio Dotel (32) – $5.5MM mutual option for ’08
Eric Gagne (32) – Type B
Hitoki Iwase (33)
Masahide Kobayashi (34)
Todd Jones (40) – Type B
Al Reyes (37) – $1MM club option for ’08 – Type B
Mariano Rivera (38) – Type A
Bob Wickman (39)

Middle relievers
Jeremy Affeldt (29)
Antonio Alfonseca (36)
LaTroy Hawkins (35)
Jorge Julio (29) – Type B
Joe Kennedy (29)
Scott Linebrink (31) – Type A
Troy Percival (39) – Type B
David Riske (31) – Type B
Julian Tavarez (35) – $3.85MM club option for ’08
Mike Timlin (42) – Type B
Luis Vizcaino (31) – Type B
Kerry Wood (31)

Given the message sent by the Renteria trade, I’d be stunned if the Tigers didn’t look outside the organization to fill both spots (considering Jones an outsider at this point) – especially given that Dombrowski is going to operate as if Zumaya won’t be available at all. Trying to mix and match with Eulogio De La Cruz, Jose Capellan, et al was one thing when the team had to adjust in mid season. But with a full off season to work with Dombrowski won’t be content to mix and match and hope with the guys he already has.

Of the above list, in addition to Cordero and Rivera I like Eric Gagne. I don’t think he’s as bad as he showed in Boston. He won’t cost a draft pick, and he could be relatively cheap. Who knows, he may even do a one year deal to re-establish his value like Pudge Rodriguez did with the Marlins in 2003. Jorge Julio has posted solid strike out rates through out his career, but he has struggled with walks at times, and is only 29. And Kerry Wood wouldn’t be a bad option if you didn’t have to rely on him. He has upside and could help in the rotation or out of the pen.

Free Agents, Pitching, Players

Newsflash: Rivera is better than Jones

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Drew Sharp had a blurb in today’s Free Press in which he argued that “making a one-year commitment to Todd Jones for 2008 is still a better financial and competitive investment than giving Mariano Rivera three years at nearly $40 million.”

It isn’t that assertion that bothers me. One could make an argument that an affordable 1 year deal to provide some depth while your closer in waiting matures is more fiscally responsible than sinking big money into a position that can be filled for less. I’m not going to get into that discussion right now.

But as part of his reasoning Sharp asserted:

Rivera is a future Hall of Famer, but he’s 38 and living more off previous reputation than any current intimidation factor.

There isn’t much distinguishing him — right now — from Jones from a production standpoint.

This is just wrong. Sharp offers no proof of this preposterous assertion, he just leaves it to the reader to believe him. In case you don’t want to take Drew Sharp at face value, here are their 2007 stats, I’ll let you figure out which pitcher is which.

Stat	PitA	PitB
IP	71.1	61.1
H	68	64
HR	4	3
BB	12	23
SO	74	33
R	25	29
FIP	2.61	3.88

Jones probably gets too much grief for what he isn’t. But to assert they are the same player from “a production standpoint” is just, umm, pick your adjective.

Todd Jones Stats and Graphs – Detroit Tigers | FanGraphs
Mariano Rivera Stats and Graphs – New York Yankees | FanGraphs
DREW SHARP: Todd Jones a better signing than Mariano Rivera

2007 Season, Managing & Strategy, Pitching, Players

Leveraging Todd Jones

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WPA Leaders

Rank Name WPA
1 J.J. Putz 6.17
2 R. Betancourt 5.38
3 Takashi Saito 4.27
4 Heath Bell 4.12
5 Joakim Soria 3.85
6 J. Papelbon 3.72
7 Joe Nathan 3.63
8 F. Rodriguez 2.95
9 Hideki Okajima 2.93
10 Pat Neshek 2.83
11 Carlos Marmol 2.8
12 Brandon Lyon 2.8
13 J. Isringhausen 2.75
14 Manuel Corpas 2.71
15 Tony Pena 2.56
39 Todd Jones 1.57

WPA or win probability added tracks a teams chances of winning over the course of a game and the measure for an individual player is the difference in win probability when a player enters the game compared to when they leave. WPA of .5 represents 1 win. The complete list of WPA reliever leaders can be found at Fangraphs.

Last week Dave Dombrowski indicated that the club would like to have Todd Jones back, but under the condition that he may be moved out of the closer’s role at some point during the season. Right now the ball is in Todd Jones court as he evaluates his options, and tries for a gig closer to his Alabama home. But is a set up role better for Jones than as the 9th inning man?

Not your typical closer

Jones doesn’t possess one trait that is common among closers, an ability to strike hitters out. In 2007 Todd Jones was dead last, by a considerable margin, among closers (or people who finished at least 35 games). His 4.84 was considerably behind David Weathers 5.56. What’s more is that there were 12 closers who’s K-rate was more than double that of Jones.

Still, Jones manages success because of other things he doesn’t do. His renaissance as a closer came in 2005 with the Florida Marlins when he simply stopped walking people. He only issued 25 free passes between 2005 and 2006 in over 130 innings. However in 2007 he struggled with his control, relatively speaking and issued 23 walks in 61.1 innings, and that put him in the bottom half of closers.

So with a bad strike out rate, and a not so good walk rate, he must have had sterling defense behind him right? Not so much. His batting average on balls in play was .299 which ranked in the bottom 3rd, or the top 3rd depending on your point of view, but it’s the bad 3rd regardless.

Look at these numbers, how did Jones manage to have blown save numbers comparable to Francisco Rodriguez and Bobby Jenks? He had 2 things working for him. The first is that he keeps the ball in the park. He only allowed only allowed 3 homers this year, and a slugging percentage of .371 meant that it would take several hits for Jones to blow a save.
Continue reading Leveraging Todd Jones →

2007 Season, 2008 Season, Contracts, Free Agents, Pitching

Breaking down the Dombrowski pow-wow

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Dave Dombrowski held court today in what was deemed an informal availability session and broached a number of topics.  Jason Beck was first to the web with the bullet points.  Definitely click through to Beck’s reporting, but I’ll weigh in on the bullets as well.

Pudge Rodriguez

No decision yet on Pudge and Dombrowski indicated the team might use their full allotment of time (10 days after the World Series) to make a decision. I just documented my thoughts on the situation and believe Pudge needs to be back next year. Whether that means picking up the option, or buying him out and inking him to a 2 year deal that pays him $7-8 million per – I’d be okay with both.

Todd Jones

Beck says:

They’ve expressed their interest in bringing Todd Jones back for next year, but while he would come back as a closer to start the year, they wouldn’t commit to keeping him there as the season went on.

I like the plan, and don’t want to see Jones blocking Zumaya. At the same time, if Jones is back, and can’t hold down the closer role that probably isn’t a good sign. Also, Jones is looking to see if Atlanta would be interested so he could be closer to home. I’ll be taking a deeper dive look at Jones coming up soon.

The rotation

Three spots are set and allocated to Verlander/Bonderman/Robertson. One spot will go to a veteran – like Kenny Rogers if he chooses to come back or another acquisition if he doesn’t- and the other spot will go to a kid to be determined. While trading Robertson would bring back some value, it also leaves a hole in the rotation and going into the season counting on more than one of Jurrjens/Miller/Bazardo to hold down a roster spot for a full year is a risky proposition. The thought of the three of them holding down one spot and then being available for injuries/tired arms is pretty appealing. Plus a one year deal for Rogers means the whole veteran presence without commiting to someone who might block a youngster when they are ready.

Left Field

Will look to get a left handed bat for the outfield that could be a starter, or a platoon partner for Marcus Thames. The ability to get a starter will probably be directly impacted on the cost of a shortstop, and whether or not they need to fill Kenny’s spot with a longer term contract that would consume more resources.

Jurrjens and Sheffield

Jurrjens will be spending the offseason with Gary Sheffield and working with Sheff’s trainer so that Jurrjens gains strength. I can only wonder how this came about. Did the club initiate it? Did Jurrjens initiate it? Was it Sheffield’s idea? For some reason this just strikes me as a fascinating conversation and a very interesting dynamic. A veteran slugging outfielder near the end of his career teaming up with a 21 year old rookie pitcher from Curacao to build strength. Good times.

Beck’s Blog: No extension for Leyland … yet

2007 Season, Research

Mike Rabelo – the anti-save

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I don’t know if you’ve noticed or not, but Todd Jones and Mike Rabelo don’t really go together. If Jones is peanut butter, Rabelo is asparagus and if you look back at the game logs you see that Mike Rabelo has caught half of games where Jones has allowed runs. Luckily it seems that Jim Leyland has picked up on this, and has Ivan Rodriguez catch Jones in his last 13 appearances. A period where Jones has allowed a meager .490 OPS against.

On June 26th the Tigers were hosting the Rangers at the beginning of a lengthy homestand. Todd Jones entered the game in the 9th inning with the score tied at 6 after the Tigers scored 3 in the bottom of the 8th. After 2 quick outs Jones allowed a few baserunners and there seemed to be a conference between every single pitch with catcher Mike Rabelo. A triple and a single later the Tigers were down 3. After the game Jones admitted to missing a sign from Rabelo. He was supposed to step off the rubber, and instead gave up a hit. That was the last game that Rabelo has caught Jones.

And I’m pretty sure this isn’t a matter of coincidence. Twice Rabelo was the starting catcher, only to be replaced by Pudge at the end of the game for defensive purposes.

Looking back, Jones has allowed runs in 10 of his apperances and in 5 of those Mike Rabelo was the catcher. Jones has 5 blown saves, and Rabelo was manning the plate for 3 of them. Remember April 18th against the Royals? The Tigers take a 3-1 lead into the 9th inning. Jones walked 2 and allowed a double and a single tying the game.

Or what about May 28th against the Devil Rays? The Tigers have a 5-4 lead when Jones loads the bases on 2 hits and an intentional walk only to see Elijah Dukes single in the winning run on a chopper. Rabelo.

And who could forget the low point of the season (at least the low point before this week). The debacle on June 1st in Cleveland. Jones allowed 5 runs in the bottom of the 9th for a crushing 12-11 defeat. Rabelo.

In all, 12 of the 23 runs Jones has allowed have come with Rabelo behind the dish, which is disproportionately high for the backup catcher.

I don’t mean this as an indictment of Rabelo’s ability. His overall catchers ERA is 4.66 which is only slightly higher than Pudge’s 4.47. Given Rabelo’s limited playing time I’m not sure that is even a real difference. But for some reason, he and Jones just never seemed on the same page. They seemed to confer on a regular basis, and the Rangers game was just a manifestation of that. So if the game is close, and Rabelo is playing, you’ll probably continue to see Pudge get that 9th inning call.