So it all comes down to this.  Tonight is either the last game–and the last game post–of the season,  or it’s the catapult into a deciding game 7 with our best postseason pitcher on the mound I like our chances to take this thing if we can make it to game 7, where the Rangers really don’t want to be facing the preternaturally calm Doug Fister.  They really don’t.

Whatever happens, the Tigers have managed to overcome a lot this postseason, and have pitched quite well against arguably the two best offensive teams in baseball.  The Tigers have given up a total of 16 regular inning runs in 5 games (we’ll set aside the 11th inning runs for the moment), or 3.2 per game, to a team that averaged 5.3 in the regular season.

That being said, the odds are stacked against us tonight.  We are in Arlington, where Texas loves to hit.  AccuScore gives Texas a huge advantage (64%)…the ESPN fan poll likes us even less (Texas at 72% chance to win).  And yet…

Alex Avila has this figured out.  You see, there is Max Scherzer, who is a very analytical, calm pitcher.  And then there is Mad Max.  Avila says, it’s time for Mad Max.

And–as we have known all along–it’s all about the eyes.  The analytical Max pitches with his blue eye, the intense Max with his brown eye.  Says Avila:  “He gets all jacked up and ready to go.  He gets this look in his blue eye, then his brown eye starts twitching, and it doesn’t even matter what pitch I call.  It seems like he comes out throwing great.”  Let’s hope tonight the eyes have it.

Again tonight, the way the game begins will be crucial. In his first run through against the Rangers, Max Bondermanned the first inning, then made it until the 6th without giving up a base runner.  Holland only lasted 3 innings, before being Raburned right out of the game.  On the other hand, he should certainly be rested for tonight.

In case Max goes all blue-eye tonight, warming up in the bullpen will be Rick Porcello.  Kid Rick has never come out of the bullpen yet in his fledgling career.  I’m guessing Ol’ Smokey ain’t expecting him to tonight either.

Random note of interest:  according to a DKnobler tweet, Craig Monroe is in the stands tonight wearing a Tiger shirt.  So we’ve got the C-Mo going for us.

Player of the Pre-Game:  Brandon Inge

Inge? Seriously?  Yes.  When Inge does hit, it is against lefties.  And I just have a feeling.  And besides I need something dramatic here for prediction parity with Kevin.

Today’s Naturally Cycling Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Ryan Raburn, RF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. Delmon Young, LF
6. Jhonny Peralta, SS
7. Alex Avila, C
8. Brandon Inge, 3B
9. Ramon Santiago, 2B

Today’s playoff trivia question: Who has the MLB record for the highest single-season playoff BA and OBP (same player)?  Answer below.

What a difference a day makes.

The Tigers got where they are on their hitting as much as anything:  they had the 4th highest team OPS in the AL, behind Boston, Texas, and the Yankees.  But the guys who were doing it all year long had just not being doing it before last night.

Tiger OPS leaders regular season:

1.033 Cabrera

.895 Avila

.850 Martinez

.824 Peralta

Postseason OPS before Tuesday:

.791 Cabrera

.228 Avila

.556 Martinez

.632 Peralta

That’s 1.395 OPS points lower than the regular season, which is like replacing Cabrera and Martinez with 2 Adam Everetts.  In fact the Tiger team OPS was only .678, which is close to fielding a team of Adam Everetts (.640 career).  And it isn’t like the team was making productive outs:  they had rung up a whopping 69 strikeouts already (Texas has 38, by comparison).  And when they have put the ball in play, they have been prone to the GIDP:  they have a 1.05 ground ball to fly ratio (Texas is at .067), which has resulted in 8 GIDPs, 2 more than the other 3 playoff teams combined.

Leyland was doing what he could to adjust–the Tigers have 6 of the 7 AL posteason sacrifice bunts.  He even had Peralta sacrificing for the first time since 2009.

Last night that all changed.  Welcome back to Comerica Miguel!  Welcome back Victor, welcome Jhonny!   The Tigers had their first 3-HR postseason game since guys named Parrish and Gibson did it in 1984.

And what can you say about Doug Fister?  Even away from Arlington, this Texas lineup is nothing to sneeze at, but Fister sneezed away.

Martinez and Young, on the other hand, may want to refrain from sneezing.  V-Mart injured his oblique,  but refuses to consider the bench:  “The only way I don’t play tomorrow is if I wake up and I’m dead.”  He is alive and batting cleanup, in front of his Oblique Buddy Delmon Young, who returns to the lineup in the 5th spot.

Now it is Texas who is wondering what happened to the middle of their lineup.  The Texas 4-7 hitters were 0-15 last night, and Michael Young in particular is struggling, descending into Avila range (.111, .284 OPS).

Today it is Kid Rick’s turn to shine.  Porcello looks to even up the series against Matt Harrison, another Texas lefty.  This game is a big one for both teams, perhaps more so for Texas, with Justin Verlander waiting in the wings.  Harrison had a good season (14-9, 3.39) but gives Texas fans some reasons to be nervous.  Harrison’s career stats at Comerica:  1-3, 5.56, with opponents hitting .358 against him.  The current Tiger roster is batting .400 career against him (1.172 OPS), with Cabrera, Raburn, Inge, Avila, and Jackson all .400 or better.  Look for Raburn to have a big day.  The Fall Guy is 8-for-12 career against Harrison, with a 2.026 OPS.

So were any of our readers at the game yesterday?  Ranger fans seem to think the Tiger crowd was awfully dead for a playoff game.

Update:  it appears once again the weather is trying to rain on the Tiger parade. The tarp is on the field at Comerica.  Estimate start time moved to 5:45. 6:30.

Today’s playoff trivia answer:  Lloyd McClendon, 1992, Pirates (.727 /.750, 1.932 OPS).  So don’t try to pin any playoff slumping business on Ol’ Lloyd

Player of the Pre-Game:  Miguel Cabrera

Not only did Cabrera hit the majestic home run yesterday, but for the second consecutive game had the play of the game with his glove.  Let’s go for three.

Today’s Let’s-Get-Even Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Ryan Raburn, RF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. Delmon Young, LF
6. Alex Avila, C
7. Jhonny Peralta, SS
8. Ramon Santiago, 2B
9. Brandon Inge, 3B

Note:  The Sunday game has been postponed, and will now be played (presumably) Monday at 4:19 EST, because 4:15 is just too early and 4:30 is just too darn late.

**Breaking News**  Magglio is out for the rest of the postseason.  He refractured the ankle he broke last season, when or how is unclear (he walked and was replaced by a pinch-runner his last appearance).  It turns out the ankle had been bothering him all season, and in fact he almost retired because of it midseason.

Update: It turns out that Ordonez injured the ankle in batting practice before the game, but tried to tough it out and play anyway.  Which makes me view the 1st inning of Saturday’s game differently…bases loaded, Wilson on the ropes, and up to the plate comes Maggs–with a broken ankle…GIDP.  Credit Maggs for his toughness, but there is something of the Inge-with-2-bad-knees bit in this scenario.

What is clear is that the Tigers have a major problem now.  They already went into the postseason without Boesch, and now have lost the only 2 guys in the middle of the order who have been hitting.  It is unclear who the Tigers will call up to replace him:  it certainly won’t be Timo Perez.The only other OF on the 40-man roster is Clete Thomas.

Update:  The player added to the roster to replace Magglio Ordonez is, as ouchudied has reported…Delmon Young, who less than 2 days ago was determined to be out for the series.  Call me skeptical.  (Also, a “first” to Andrew in Toronto on the Magglio news).  Young is penciled in the 3 spot in today’s lineup, but according to a Jason Beck tweet Leyland has also prepared a 2nd lineup card with Andy Dirks, just in case Young is more injured than thought or as injured as originally thought, or whatever.

***

One thing Tiger fans could count on in the regular season, was no prolonged losing streaks.  Anytime Justin Verlander pitched after a Tiger loss, the losing usually stopped right there (Verlander was 14-3 following a Tiger loss), which is one reason the Tigers haven’t lost 2 games in a row since Aug 27-28.

Verlander once again was rain-bedeviled, and once again began the game without his best stuff, having problems with the strike zone, throwing 49 pitches in 2 innings (although to be fair, if Foxtrax and my own eyes are to be believed, he threw several “balls” in the “strike zone”).

The pitching actually came through Saturday on the whole (even our 2nd-tier bullpen guys):  anytime you hold the Rangers to 3 runs in their home park you’ve done your job.

(Check out The Newberg Report for a good, detailed review of the game from a Rangers perspective).

The big question now becomes, was Verlander’s outing short enough that he will come back now for game 4 instead of 5?  Leyland’s play-it-by-the-book track record says no, but stay tuned.

At any rate this afternoon, for the 2nd consecutive postseason series, Max Scherzer will be asked to be the guy to take the mound after a Verlander start ended with a loss.  Scherzer was brilliant against the Yankees,  allowing no runs and only 6 baserunners in 6 innings.  A similar performance will be needed today to quiet the murmurings of “short series.”

The Rangers send Derek Holland to the mound, a follicle-challenged lefty (he has failed quite noticeably to produce anything in the playoff beard way).  Holland sometimes has control problems and can end up pitching behind in the count…so look for the Tigers to confuse him with first-pitch swinging.

If the Tigers are to win, chances are they will do it by scoring early and often–the Rangers bullpen is not to be messed with.

And Austin Jackson still has not put a ball in play to start off a postseason game.  His strikeout last night leaves him with 4 strikeouts and 2 walks to start the 6 playoff games.  Here’s hoping for a walk tonight.  And he did have a big double yesterday, but continues to strike out, his strikeout rate now up to 44%.  And he has begun to channel Raburn in CF.

And where have the big bats gone?

The top 5 Tigers in postseason OPS:

1.170 Young* (*out**) **(back)

.928 Ordonez* (*out)

.917 Kelly

.899 Inge

.875 Raburn

The big bats:

.806 Cabrera

.625 Martinez

.610 Peralta

.186 Avila

It makes for a great story when a Kelly or a Santiago comes up big, but that can’t be maintained over an entire series.

Player of the Pre-Game: Delmon Young*.

*OK, this was originally Ordonez, but was changed for obvious reasons.  And then, briefly, Don Kelly. Can Young really play with an oblique strain (think Gary Sheffield)? Or will he go the way of Ordonez playing on a sore ankle?

Today’s  Who’ll-Stop-The-Rain? Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Ramon Santiago 2B
3. Delmon Young, LF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Victor Martinez, DH
6. Ryan Raburn, RF
7. Jhonny Peralta, SS
8. Alex Avila, C
9. Brandon Inge, 3B

Time for round two, and what better way to start than with Justin Verlander, who will pitch games 1 and 5 of the series (and what better way to end than with Doug Fister, who will once again pitch the deciding game of the series if this one goes 7).  The experts seem to agree that Verlander is the key to the series. (We know that it’s actually Don Kelly).

Not that he needs any more motivation, but look for Verlander to have a little extra adrenaline going pitching in Texas in front of his idol Nolan Ryan.

One other key to the series will be how well the Tigers fill in for Delmon Young. Young is off the roster for the series with an obique strain, which means he will be replaced by Ryan Raburn in Left, and Raburn’s spot in the 2B rotation will be taken by Danny Worth, who was added to the ALCS active roster in place of Young (expect Worth to be in the lineup soon:  Santiago may be a bit overextended right now, as Kevin suggests).

Young’s spot in the lineup, however, will be taken by Miguel Cabrera, who will move up to the third spot in the lineup.  Perhaps the change will do him good;  other than the one opposite field home run, Cabrera had a quiet ALDS series, batting only .200 (.800 OPS).

Austin Jackson will need to start getting on base to make Cabrera’s stay in the 3-spot a useful one:  Jackson finished the ALDS hitting only .125 (.488 OPS!) and struck out 8 times (38%) which is high even for him.  Jackson has yet to put a ball in play to lead off a postseason game–he led off the 5 Yankee games with 3 strikeouts and 2 walks.

The Tigers have struggled against C.J. Wilson in general:  the current roster is a combined .203 career against him (.620 OPS), with some of the most reliable Tigers seemingly having the most trouble.  Martinez is a career 3-for-17 (.176, .508 OPS), and Jhonny Peralta a career 1-for-14 (.071, .330 OPS…yikes).  The only Tiger with a home run against Wilson is Brandon Inge.

The Tigers will also be dealing with the fatigue of a short turnaround and traveling, not to mention hangovers.  No, not those hangovers, says Ol’ Smokey.  Emotional hangovers.

There isn’t much to add to Kevin’s excellent rundown of the Rangers’ lineup, other than to add that there is a 10th player which we might mention–Rangers Ballpark.  The Rangers are a vastly different team at home than on the road:  .296 BA, .860 OPS vs .269 BA, .740 OPS (.269, .692 at Comerica).  And it isn’t just the Rangers–the Tigers love The Ballpark at Arlington even more.  (.373 BA, .990 OPS).  Unfortunately the most at-home Tiger, Brennan Boesch (.467, 1.433) is not in the lineup.  Adrian Beltre is the biggest Ranger homebody, hitting .326 (1.078) at Arlington, with 23 of his 32 HRs.

Player of the Pre-Game: Ryan Raburn.

He has been Mr. August-September his whole career, posting a ridiculous (for him) .308 BA over those 2 months.  Time to see if he can add October to his list.  Raburn is a career 2-3 against CJ Wilson.

Today’s Cabby-Gets-to-Bat-in-the-First Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Ryan Raburn, LF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. Magglio Ordonez, RF
6. Alex Avila, C
7. Jhonny Peralta, SS
8. Ramon Santiago, 2B
9. Brandon Inge, 3B

(Note: tonight is a combined Coleman/Kevin In Dallas post, kind of like the Verlander/Fister Game 1 start–hopefully with better results).

On March 31st, Curtis Granderson hit an insurance home run in the bottom of the 7th off of Phil Coke (who was brought in to just face Granderson), while Austin Jackson went 1-4 and Alex Avila went 0-4 in a 6-3 Tigers loss.  JV took a no decision.  After 166 games in 189 days, we’re right back where we started.

JV (most likely) will not factor into the decision tonight, but Doug Fister will in a rematch against Game 1 Part 2 opponent Ivan Nova, who just 3 months ago was demoted to the minor leagues, while Fister suffered on last-place Seattle.

Fister gave up 6 runs in 4 2/3 innings, but didn’t pitch as badly as that sounds.  He started off well, putting the Yankees behind consistently in the count–the first time through the order, 6 of 9 Yankees were caught looking at first pitch strikes.  Expect the Yankee hitters to take a more aggressive approach tonight.

(Speaking of aggressive approaches:  Delmon Young swung at 11 first pitches in his first 13 ALDS plate appearances).

Nova pitched well, allowing 2 ER over 6 and then gave way to the Yankees bullpen.  The Tigers will have to hit him harder tonight, or at least make contact–Cabrera, Martinez, Jackson, and Raburn all had swinging strike 3s against Nova.  But Nova will not be so nova to the Tiger hitters the 2nd time through.  And perhaps tonight’s earlier (8:07) start will throw him off.

It would help for the Tigers to capitalize early.  Tuesday’s first inning Granderson grab was the 2nd consecutive game the Tigers failed to take advantage of an early bases-loaded situation.  In fact, the 14 times in the regular season that the Tigers had the bases loaded with less than 2 outs in the first or second inning, they ended up with a .091 BA and .182 OPS.

It would also help for Austin Jackson to get on base,  and maybe Don Kelly in the 2nd spot will provide a spark, or at least avoid the GIDP or failed sacrifice problem that has hurt Detroit.

(Leyland has indicated a Kelly to RF/Inge to 3B defensive shift is likely later in the game).

If the Tigers do strike early, Yankee manager Joe Girardi has indicated that he is willing to use Rivera for 2 innings, and will have CC Sabatia available in the bullpen.  No Verlander for Leyland though, and probably no Alburquerque either.  Leyland is set to go with Fister, Coke, Benoit, and Valverde. If Fister doesn’t make it far enough into the game, Max Scherzer will be the guy.

Tuesday night’s debacle was the most watched LDS game since 2007.  The Tigers have one more chance to show the baseball-watching world what they are really made of.  As Brandon Inge said, “it’s hard to beat us 2 games in a row.”

Stat to remember – Game 3 Winners (Tigers) have won 83% of the last 23 LDS.  Time to pick a winner.  Have fun everybody.  Let’s play ball!

Player of the Pre-Game: Alex Avila

Has Iron-Man Alex finally worn down? Avila has yet to have a hit in the postseason, and has in fact struck out 6 times in 15 plate appearances, a rate almost twice as high as his regular season rate.  Batting between Cabrera-Martinez-Ordonez and the hot Peralta, Avila could swing the course of the game with a timely hit.

Today’s Hmm-Let’s-Try-This Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Don Kelly, 3B
3. Delmon Young, LF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Victor Martinez, DH
6. Magglio Ordonez, RF
7. Alex Avila, C
8. Jhonny Peralta, SS
9. Ramon Santiago, 2B

Today’s Playoff trivia answer:  Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Inge, Ryan Raburn, Don Kelly, Wilson Betemit, and Brad Penny.  Question below.

Justin Verlander once again got off to a shaky start, but this time there was no rain, and he found a groove in which he may as well have been throwing a no-hitter, at one point striking out 4 consecutive Yankee hitters, 3 of them on called strikes.

Then in the 7th inning, he lost the strike zone.  You could see it on his face;  he was fidgety, the calm Verlander gaze was gone (an Avila trip to the mound probably would have been in order here).  He still had the power though:  he walked Posada on pitches of 100, 100, 100, 101, and 100.  I doubt if a starting pitcher has ever thrown 5 consecutive 100+ pitches in the postseason before (I haven’t been able to track this down for certain).

But he pulled it together once again, struck out Derek Jeter, breezed through the 8th, and with the help of Delmon Young put the Yankees once again on the verge of first-round Defeat in the D.

And A-Rod is still 0-for-the-series, and a career postseason 1-for-27 against Detroit. Must be the strike zone. Yeah, that’s it.

And speaking of 2006 deja vu,  the Cardinals squeaked into the postseason, and now look like they have a shot at upsetting the Phillies…I’m just saying…

If there is any Yankee on the NY hot seat right now more than A-Rod, it is tonight’s starting pitcher A.J. Burnett.  Burnett, who has been called “inconsistent” so much this season it might as well be his middle name, muddled through the season at 11-11, 5.15.  The Yankees were hoping to get through the series without having to use him, but the rainout changed that.

He has been consistently wild, leading MLB with 25 wild pitches.

His record against Detroit doesn’t inspire confidence either:  2-2, 7.17.  His career postseason mark is 1-2, 5.67.

One oddity about Burnett:  the RH Burnett fares better against LHB (.256 BA against) than he does RHB (.264 BA against).  Jim Leyland is not to be fooled, however:  he has loaded the lineup with lefties.

Taking the mound for Detroit is Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.75), who’s one postseason appearance was his game 163 against the Twins, where he struck out 8 in 5 2/3 innings.  He has hardly been the picture of consistency himself:  His ERAs by month:  4.25, 3.52, 6.97, 3.06, 6.82, 3.55.  So the question is, is October a new month, or does it count as part of September?

As good as Kid Rick’s September was, there is one cause for concern for tonight:  he has been considerably better against RHB (.249 BA against) than against LHB (.321 BA against, yikes…Granderson, Cano, and Texeira must be giddy…).

Porcello is the Tiger starter least likely to make it through the 7th inning, so the bullpen will be key today:  Alburquerque will need to shake off the grand slam from Game 1, Benoit will need to keep doing what he has been doing, and Phil Coke will likely need to get a key out or two against his former teammates.  Leyland says that Valverde, who has closed the last 2 games, should be available again tonight.

Whoever wins this series will be facing the Texas Rangers.  (If it’s the Tigers, our own Kevin In Dallas should have some interesting perspective).  The prospect of a Milwaukee-St. Louis / Detroit-Texas final 4 should have the TV execs hitting the Captain Morgan (you would think, by the way, that they would’ve come up with a few new commercials if they were going to sponsor the playoffs).

Just for fun: Jim Leyland is now 29-23 (.558) career in the postseason, 10-6 (.625) with Detroit.

And who looks these things up?  Justin Verlander and Jose Valverde are the only starter-closer combo with the same initials to combine for a postseason win-save other than Ron Guidry and Rich Gossage, who did it in 1978.  Hmm, so suddenly he isn’t “Goose” anymore, OK.

Today’s Playoff trivia question:  Which Tigers have a career postseason batting average of .300 or above?

Player of the Pre-Game: Don Kelly and his .500 career postseason BA (1.000 OPS) is unleashed in the 6 spot to protect Cabby and V-Mart with Donkey power.

Today’s Leyland-is-a-Much-Maligned-Genius Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Ramon Santiago, 2B
3. Delmon Young, LF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Victor Martinez, DH
6. Don Kelly, RF
7. Jhonny Peralta, SS
8. Alex Avila, C
9. Wilson Betemit, 3B

The start of Game 1 was a mess, and then it ended badly. Gene Lamont did what Gene Lamont does. Fister pitched well but for a couple of bad pitches, but those gave the Yankees enough runs to win the game.  The Alburquerque magic failed, and, after facing 182 career batters, he gave up his first ever home run in grand slam style (Beck details how rare it was for Al to throw a hanging slider).

On the bright side, it is a day game, and Brad Penny is not on the mound.

On the bright side, the Yankees took Game 1 from the Tigers the last time they met in the postseason too, and look what happened.

On the bright side, regardless of what happens today, the Tigers have Justin Verlander ready to take the mound Monday.

This afternoon Max Scherzer will try to bring the Tigers back into the win column against a reanimated Freddy Garcia, who finished the season 12-8 with a 3.62 ERA.  Back in the day, Freddy Garcia was so effective during day game starts that Alan Trammell nicknamed him “Day Game Freddy.”

Game 2 tends to be a key game for the Yankees in the postseason–in the last 8 postseason series the Yankees have been in, the Game 2 winner has gone on to take the series.  Go Max!  Your mission:  don’t throw anything hittable to that Cano guy.

Player of the Pre-Game: Victor Martinez had a nice 12-pitch AB against Nova last night.  That kind of patience and selection will go a long way against Freddy Garcia.

Today’s Return-of-Ramon Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Magglio Ordonez, RF
3. Delmon Young, LF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Victor Martinez, DH
6. Alex Avila, C
7. Jhonny Peralta, SS
8. Wilson Betemit, 3B
9. Ramon Santiago, 2B