89-72, 1 game up, magic number is 1.

It’s pretty simple here friends. Thanks to the White Sox, the Tigers still control their own destiny, even if those evil baseball schedule makers did force us to end the seasons against the Twins.

Win and we win the division. Lose and we can still win the division, if the Royals lose. If the Royals win, we are playing in Comerica on Monday for the division. Win that, and it’s against the Orioles (on Wed, I think). Lose that, and it’s against the Mariners or Athletics in Detroit on Tues for the right to play in the ALDS.

That’s a pretty messy paragraph, so it would be much preferred that David Price step up and deliver.

David Price has been a front of the rotation pitcher in Detroit, but he hasn’t been an ace. A guy who, on a consistent basis, steps up and stops a losing streak, lets the bullpen rest, and delivers a W. Today is his chance. Last time out Price had a gem working through 8, then was charged with 3 ER in the 9th, and ended up with a no-decision. Note, he’s posting a 1.18 WHIP and .670 OPS against with the Tigers, so some luck has factored into his 3.97 ERA during that time. But Aces make it happen any way they have to.

The Twins send Kyle Gibson to the mound to close out what will be a winning head to head record against the Tigers, no matter what happens today. Gibson is 2-2 against the Tigers this season, but the Tigers have hit him hard, batting .325 with an .826 OPS for a 6.86 ERA. He’s walked 10 Tigers batters in 19 2/3 innings this season, so patience should lead to hittable pitches and walks.

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In case you are wondering, the Royals – White Sox starts an hour after the Tigers game, not that will matter…

As I’m sure you’ve seen by now, spark plug Rajai Davis strained his pelvis in the batters box last night (I know that players adjust themselves a lot, but this seems excessive), and is out for a few days. He claims he’d be ready by Thursday, which is when the division series should start. Carrerra gets the start in CF, which is baffling to me, considering the consistently awful defense we see as a team. Ausmus even mentioned the poor defense in his post game interview last night. Kelly also bats left, is a significantly better fielder than Carrera, and gets on base at a better clip (.333 to .300). I just don’t get it.

Baseball Reference Game Preview here.

1. Kinsler, 2B
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 1B
4. Martinez, DH
5. Martinez, LF
6. Avila, C
7. Castellanos, 3B
8. Romine, SS
9. Carrera, CF

89-71, 1 game up, magic number is 2.

Alright everybody, get your game faces on. The playoffs start today. We can’t sit around and wait for the Royals to lose the division. We have to take control ourselves.

The task won’t be easy. Even if the opposing team is 22 games under .500.

Here is the Tigers’ record and runs allowed per game against all MLB playoff qualifiers:

Baltimore – 5-1, 3.33
Kansas City – 13-6. 3.47
Los Angeles A – 3-4, 3.71
Oakland – 5-2, 4.14
Pittsburgh – 2-2, 5.25
Los Angeles D – 3-1, 3.75
San Francisco – 1-2, 4.67
(didn’t play Doug Fister’s Nationals, or the Cardinals this year)

Overall that’s 32-18 with 3.82 RAA per game. And we’re scoring 4.86 runs per game. More than a run per game against playoff teams? That is awesome! (Seriously, I’ve never felt better about the playoffs than I do right now).

But for whatever reason, the 2014 Twins play the Tigers like no one else. Here are the same numbers against the Twins:

Minnesota – 8-9, 6.29 runs allowed per game, 5.65 runs scored.

Look, baseball is a funny game. It’s a long season, and inexplicable trends can emerge, especially against division foes. For some reason, the 2014 Twins have the Tigers’ number, and remain a formidable obstacle in the way of a 4th straight division title.

Kyle Lobstein continues his march towards a full-time starter with his 6th career start tonight. None has been bigger than tonight. Every indication is that he’ll be up to the task, as over his first five he’s 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. In 23 2/3 innings at home this year, Lobstein has a .221 BAA, .624 OPS against, and a 1.01 WHIP. He hasn’t yet faced the Twins as a starter, though he has held Twins hitters to a .200 BA and .720 OPS in 25 plate appearances this year.

The Twins counter with Ricky Nolasco, who silenced the Tigers two weeks ago with an 8 inning, 5 hit, 0 run gem. Back in June the Tigers hit Nolasco a bit better, chasing him with 9 hits and 3 runs after 5 1/3. For the season, Nolasco has been very hittable – posting a 5.47 ERA and 1.53 ERA. Righties drill him to the tune of .303/.330/.498/.829 and Lefties crush him, posting a slashline of .335/.386/.524/.910. Nolasco is much more comfortable at home (4.46 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) than away (6.54, 1.75), and the September 16 home start against the Tigers was one of only two starts this year where Nolasco did not allow a run.

The division is right there in front of us. Let’s go get it.

Baseball Reference Game Preview here.

My pre-game player pick for the subsequent game is Ian Kinsler. Talk to you boys tonight.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B (5-9, 3 doubles)
2. Torii Hunter, RF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH (4-6, 1 double)
5. J.D. Martinez, LF (3-9)
6. Nick Castellanos, 3B (1-3, double)
7. Alex Avila, C
8. Andrew Romine, SS
9. Rajai Davis, CF

89-70, magic number is 2.

Up against the clock today, so I’ll just make one quick point. Are the Tigers the hottest AL team entering the playoffs?…

Swarzak v. Porcello tonight.

Game preview here.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B
2. Torii Hunter, RF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. J.D. Martinez, LF
6. Nick Castellanos, 3B
7. Alex Avila, C
8. Andrew Romine, SS
9. Rajai Davis, CF

“Hey man – the playoffs are that way.”

88-70, 1st place, magic number is 3. Playoffs clinched.

Whether Sale will admit it, plunking VMart yesterday ignited this offense, provided some emotion that this team can really build off of, and assured a playoff spot. That said, can we all agree that a wild card slot would be immensely disappointing for this team? It’s a little different now than 2006, because “Wild Card” only guarantees one more game.

So our Tigers end the season with four at home versus the Twins. Probables:

Tonight 7:08 PM: Trevor May v. Max Scherzer

Friday: 7:08 PM: Anthony Swarzak v. Rick Porcello

Saturday: 7:08 PM: Ricky Nolasco v. Kyle Lobstein

Sunday: 1:08 PM: Kyle Gibson v. David Price

There’s a chance the the Tigers could tie for the division with the Royals, then win a one-game division deciding game, and get to skip the one-game wild card play-in game. Or they could tie for the division, then lose the one-game division deciding game, and still get another chance at a one-game playoff. In that scenario, the Tigers would have to lose 5/6 or 6/6 to not be playing in a playoff series next week. Thus, unless the Tigers get swept by the Twins AND the Royals win at least three from the White Sox (in which case we’ll be playing the A’s in the one game wild-card game), the Tigers will either be playing the Royals at Comerica on Monday for the division title, or will win the Central outright. More scenarios from the Freep here. Winning the division means a 5 game set against Baltimore. Losing the division but advancing via the wild card (assuming we get past Oakland) means a 5 game set against the Angels, who seem to average about 10 runs per game against the Tigers.

Beyond the obvious playoff seeding implications, clinching the division also significantly affects personnel headed into the playoffs. It looks like Nathan will be the first, but not only, choice for 9th inning situations, but how will Ausmus use Sanchez and Lobstein in the playoffs? I think that Verlander has earned his way into the rotation (as if he were ever out of it; see Albom’s thoughts here), but we really have no idea where Sanchez is. Sanchez’s ERA rose from 2.33 to 3.46 over his last 10 starts, and in his last 5 he allowed 4, 5, 4, 0, and 3 ER. It would be great to see him get significant innings over the weekend, and feel good about him being a long man in the playoffs. I don’t know if two starts is enough to say that “JV is back!” but it’s better than nothing. If I can be optimistic for a minute here – JV as an ace completely shifts the landscape of the AL playoffs.

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In other news…

– Phil Hughes set the all-time K/BB ratio – 11.63. He walked only 16 in 32 starts this year (209 2/3) innings. Bret Saberhagen posted a rate of 11.0 while with the Mets in 1994. Cliff Lee is third on the all-time list with a 10.28 ratio in 2010, and Jim Whitney holds the fourth and fifth spots, respectively, after historic seasons in 1884 (10.00) and ’83 (9.86). Man, those were the days. Strohs were only 2 pence!

Game preview here.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B
2. Torii Hunter, RF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. J.D. Martinez, LF
6. Nick Castellanos, 3B
7. Alex Avila, C
8. Eugenio Suarez, SS
9. Rajai Davis, CF

Yesterday’s 3-2 victory had a bit of everything going, turning points and momentum shifts all over the place, the baseball gods frowning upon first one and then the other team. It was really something. Good thing the Tigers won, or I’d be sickened by it and unable to speak of it.

It scher was a maxtastically pitched game (Zer Kommissar was in town) on both sides of the shields, one of those james we’ll long remember for about a week. The play that changed everything was the confusing and controversial one that, when the dust had cleared, amounted to no controversy and confusion whatsoever. Salvador Perez didn’t tag up, his bad, our good. Someone saw this and cried out at the injustice! (Who?) (Hernan Perez is our hero, as you know by now.) Even so, a small book could be written on it, complicated as it was. Why did Kinsler throw, why didn’t Suarez catch, etc. etc. etc.. It still took a lot to turn a mere second chance into a win, though. Pressure pitching from Scherzer, the 4-pitch walk to Suarez, a Shields wild pitch, the huge pinch hit from Collins, a bloop from Rajai, and then some bullpen rollercoaster. Oh, and Hunter’s earlier solo shot to start off the scoring didn’t hurt. (Does he have to go?)

Now it’s Rick Porcello vs. Jeremy Guthrie. I think Porcello has been quite good lately, but unlucky. Give him some runs, and maybe we have a sweep and a 3.5 game lead with 7 to play. That is a COMMANDING lead, a clinch waiting to happen. But don’t put it past the Royals to win that suspended game in Cleveland. Those guys are built for that sort of improbability.

Speaking of luck, as in “Luck” (W-L as compared to pythW-L), if the AL playoff picture was based on it, it would be the Orioles vs. the White Sox in the wild card game for a chance to face the Yankees (Royals and Angels would be the other two teams). Some say that the Luck “stat” reflects on a team’s manager. If that is so, Bob Melvin and Legendary Lloyd are really bad, and Brad Ausmus is pretty good. You do have to like Ausmus’s moves in yesterday’s game. Also noticed as I looked over that sort of team stats (before yesterday’s game):

* Last 10, Last 20, Last 30 – Detroit is AL Top 3 in W-L

* Tigers are 48-38 (2nd AL behind the Orioles) against >.500 teams (and now 49-38)

* If pythW-L determined playoff qualification, it would be a Los Angeles-Seattle wild card winner to face Oakland (plus DET & BAL)

* On the AL playoffs scene, Detroit really sticks out like a sore thumb in Runs Allowed; not what we would’ve expected

After game one of this series, I wanted to joke about how Raul Ibanez’s contract must stipulate that he plays not for one team, but for any team that happens to be playing the Tigers. (So there you go.) I mean, how many times have I seen him bat against the Tigers for how many teams (10? 20?) in 2014 alone? But anyway, you know, I’ve always thought Ibanez kinda looked like a guy who breaks kneecaps with baseball bats for a living, the non-baseball player kind. So I was amazed at what an articulate and mellow sort of guy he showed himself to be in the in-game interview during the broadcast of Saturday’s game. Just goes to show ya.

It has occurred to me that if circumstances were such that the Tigers had to choose between keeping either Miguel Cabrera or Victor Martinez, I (in my imagined role as the decision-maker) would be hard-pressed to let Victor go. The consummate professional hitter, the guy who NEVER gives an at bat away. It’s got to be a good influence, on top of the actual game results. When did the Tigers start winning, really winning? 2011. I rest my case.

Aside from the fact that Alex Avila is a nice guy for whom we wish nothing but the best, his continued absence due to lingering post-concussion-like symptoms is not good news. If he’s really out for the season, he will be missed. And now I hear that Anibal Sanchez might be back soon but then only in a relief role, an idea that does not impress or encourage me at all.

I’m here to tell you that I’ve liked Tyler Collins since ST 2013. I want him on the team in 2015. But where? Can he play 3B?

We see more and more why it’s good to have Andrew Romine around and why he’s drawn so many starts lately. And then we’re reminded why it’s good to have Eugenio Suarez around and why there ought to be a special DH-for-SS position in baseball. As long as Romine could pinch-run for Suarez as a special PR-for-DH-for-SS.

I stand corrected on an earlier comment about Joe Nathan. 7 blown saves is not only bad, but tied for MLB-worst. Part of the reason for that, of course, is that most closers won’t get a chance to blow 7 saves. Track record (and megabucks investment in it), don’t you know. Faith and sticking with a guy can pay off sometimes. Sometimes not. We’ve given up on Nathan, but then again, we also gave up on Phil Coke. We must also remember that leads and games almost blown… were not blown. Joe got the three outs with zero runs yesterday. Just because I don’t know how doesn’t mean I don’t appreciate it.

All right. A win today and a sweep and we can breathe. But not celebrate. A small toast, maybe. Then it’s back to business, the serious, grueling, blood sweat and tears business of willing the Detroit Tigers to win. I don’t think we get enough recognition for that. Someone oughta say something.

I had to think about it, but I’ve decided I like winning 10-1 better than losing 8-4. Justin “Ricky” Verlander dominated KC without really being dominant. Pretty darn good. He didn’t seem too happy about being lifted from the game rather unnecessarily, or maybe he was just upset with Ezequiel Carrera’s nonchalance in allowing a runner to tag and advance to 3B, but that did make it less of a challenge for Evan Reed to preserve his inherited runner scored streak. The Tigers hitters jumped all over Jason Vargas right away and kept it up post-Vargas. Tbran could be right that Detroit should have maybe saved a few runs for these next two games, but a blowout was just what the doctor ordered after the last two against Minnesota.

James “Buster” McCann thought he was me in his first AB, but snapped out of it and went on to have a bit of a game there. Are you thinking what I’m thinking? Of course you are. Meanwhile, the J.D. Martinez unreality show proceeds apace, and Ian Kinsler was swinging it like we haven’t seen since… when?

Scoring 10 runs on the Royals doesn’t happen every day. All it takes is one shutout loss for us to forget, but this team can really hit. We may not see an offensive show like the 2014 edition for a number of years, which is funny if you remember how many of us were concerned before the season started whether the new low-cal offense could possibly do enough to support the Dream Rotation. Well, the Dream Rotation has, since David Price arrived, been more like the Dream On Rotation. I don’t know if the oft-maligned bullpen has really done anything lately to deserve piling on, but could you have imagined a couple years ago that the Tigers bullpen would soon include the likes of Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria, and Jim Johnson… and be among the worst in baseball? Maybe they should go out and get Jason Grilli, Fernando Rodney, Ernesto Frieri, and Grant Balfour for 2015 and have a 7-closer pen. Their nickname could be The Famous Last Words. When will we have The Magnificent Seven? Maybe someday.

With Detroit batters having been dumbfounded by Ricky Nolasco only a few days ago, it stands to (baseball) reason that they could bomb James Shields today. Meanwhile, our own Max Scherzer faces an agonizing decision about which inning he will allow the 4-5 runs in. Tigers hit, Tigers win. That’s what I’m seeing. Keep it up.

A game and a half lead is good, but it will take a sweep to breathe easier for a day or two. A win today is one giant step.

It’s Kansas City again and another three-game “showdown.” I’m not worried about the Royals. I’m worried about the last 4 games of the season.

Pitching. It’s become quite the liability. The next few games might make it look like it’s all better, but then there are 7 more against two teams that can hit Detroit. I’d rather see 10 more against KC, myself.

But it’s September, or Septober, as the case may be, and the Tigers are more than in it. Enjoy the suspense and the possibilities. Every game has that playoff feeling to it already. Not such a bad thing.