84-67, 1st place, 1.5 games up.

KC lost last night to CWS, which allowed the Tigers to keep their slim division lead at 1.5 games despite another 9th inning implosion. The Royals face Chris Sale tonight, which sounds nice on paper. But you never know with #Sep-Tober (no matter how hard I try, this isn’t really becoming a thing, is it?)

There was a lot of discussion on yesterday’s thread about Joe Nathan, and the Tigers bullpen found itself a topic this morning on Buster Olney’s podcast. Rightfully so. Even if Carrera doesn’t misplay the single, it’s still a single. More frighteningly, Nathan has made walking batters a fad now, having issued 12 walks in his last 16 innings. It’s simply inexcusable.

Let me highlight the concern. In the past three years, the Tigers have played in 35 postseason games. Of those 35 games, 15 have been decided by 1 run, and 26 out of 35 (nearly 75%) have been decided by 3 runs or fewer. There’s not enough time for Nathan to “work it out.” The auditions have to start now.

The Tigers wrap-up the series with Minnesota tonight before their final off-day of the regular season tomorrow. Then it’s 6 at KC & CWS, follows by 4 at home versus these same Twins to end the season.

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In other news, Peter Gammons reported today that the Tigers (along with the Phillies, Padres, Giants, and Rangers) are among the favorites to sign 23 year old Cuban outfielder Yasmani Tomas. The reported price tag is $100M.

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David Price is 3-3 with the Tigers. He has 2 or 3 starts left.

Drew Smyly is 3-1 with a 1.70 ERA and .755 WHIP for Tampa Bay. Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz?

We need Price to be an ace from here on out. #DoItForTheRotation

1. 2B Ian Kinsler
2. RF Torii Hunter
3. 1B Miguel Cabrera
4. DH Victor Martinez
5. LF J.D. Martinez
6. 3B Nick Castellanos
7. C Bryan Holaday
8. SS Andrew Romine
9. CF Rajai Davis

Scherzer went from Marvelous Max to Maddening Max in the span of a few batters last night, and a rare BB BB start by Joba Chamberlain opened the door for those pesky Twins to tie the game, 6-6, in the bottom of the 8th. Phil Coke did okay, but the savior last night was Kyle Ryan, who came in and immediately induced an inning ending double play.

Three pitches and two bombs later, the Tigers were up 8-6. Soria closed the door, partially b/c Nathan needed a rest, partially b/c the closer’s role is up for grabs (I think).

Castellanos is a late scratch – foul ball off of the foot during BP. Kelly was already slated to start in CF, he slides to left and Rajai enters in the lineup at 9.

1. 2B Ian Kinsler
2. RF Torii Hunter
3. 1B Miguel Cabrera
4. DH Victor Martinez
5. LF J.D. Martinez
6. 3B Don Kelly
7. C Bryan Holaday
8. SS Andrew Romine
9. C Rajai Davis

Det 83-66  —
KC 81-67   1.5

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Oak 83-66 +1.5
KC 81-67    —
Sea 80-68  1.0
Tor 77-71   4.0
Cle  76-72  5.0
NYY 76-72 5.0

Sep-tober is in full swing.

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The Tigers fly into Minnesota for a 3 game series. They’ll have an off day on Thursday and then the weekend set in KC. Minnesota is having a hard time finding reason in baseball life right now, having lost 8 out of 10. I could say more on this, but I’ll let you look at the probables below and arrive at your own conclusions.

Tonight: Scherzer v. Swarzak – 8:10 PM
Tues: Porcello v. TBA – 8:10 PM
Wed: Price v. TBA – 8:10 PM

Baseball-Reference game preview here.

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Confession – boy was I wrong about Phil Coke. Sometime in late May, I wrote something to the effect of “Phil Coke does not belong in the Major Leagues.” Well, my motivation technique (we’ll call it that in hindsight) worked, as the guy has perhaps become the most dependable arm in the bullpen. Seriously. I know that sounds crazy, but check this out. In Phil Coke’s last 42 appearances, he’s thrown 38.1 innings, with a 2.35 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and .666 OPS against. (You can contrast that against his first 15 appearances covering 2 months, where he gave up 13 ER in 17 1/3 for a 6.75 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and .935 OPS against). In his last 9 appearances he’s allowed 7 hits and 2 BB in 8 1/3, with 0 ER and a .515 OPS. Remember how dominant he was in the 2012 playoffs? We could be getting back to that.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B
2. Torii Hunter, RF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. J.D. Martinez, LF
6. Nick Castellanos, 3B
7. Bryan Holaday, C
8. Andrew Romine, SS
9. Rajai Davis, CF

That last was a mighty fine game. Many good plays, bang-bang plays, on both sides, and fortunately the errors fell KC’s way once again. We can tell what Ian Kinsler eats for breakfast (anyone?), but can anyone leave his feet and then make a throw like he does? Rajai Davis power was the difference in the game, and we know he didn’t really get picked off 1B, either. J.D. Martinez power was the backbreaker. Max had espresso for breakfast himself (4 BB and all agitated and such), but he pitched big. Joe Nathan’s finest hour so far as a Tiger, maybe, in the 9th, where he was a couple eyelashes away from 1-2-3. I have no illusions that the Detroit bullpen won’t continue to live on the edge, but this one didn’t get away. Joakim Soria might be back soon, and he might even be good this time. Kelvin Herrera throws 100 MPH and made a play I’d like to see any Tigers pitcher make, ever. I don’t think that combination is allowed.

There might be more to the difference between an Old Style Porcello struggle and the New (Hitter-) Baffling Porcello dominance than “he is/isn’t getting his sinker down.” Someone should study this. Meanwhile, the Tigers have been known to hit James Shields. No reason they can’t do that tonight.

So, the Tigers are in 1st place again. But so are 6 other teams. It’s ooooooonly Game 146.

Baseball Reference Game Preview

James Shields vs. Rick Porcello

What I liked most about last night’s win was how it drove home the point that the Royals just can’t hang with Detroit’s offense. When present, that attack is going to be the death of KC. Really, it was a very solid win overall, though not the kind of stomping it was shaping up to be. However…

Kinsler’s mysterious failure to seize the triple play in the 6-1 win over the Giants left a slightly sour taste, but Kelly running into Hunter on the play that became Lorenzo Cain’s inside the park HR took a lot out of the wind out of this game’s sails as I felt it.

We call every error and anything close to it a clown show, but really, most of that is just physical accident plus happenstance. The essence of Clown Show is lack of preparedness, lack of awareness, and lack of communication. (And sometimes lack of effort; see Infante. Thanks for the big inning, Omar!) You can shrug it off when your team wins, but you can also realize that it might happen again at a much worse time. It could cost a game. It could cost a season. And sometimes, someone could get hurt pretty badly. It really chaps my hide, that Real Clown Show. The Tigers have very little margarine for that sort of error, wouldn’t you agree? In other words: Butter safe than sorry.

Max has been flying under the radar as far as his consistency goes. Here’s to a mammoth outing from him to put him back on the map. We’re taking him for granted just a little bit, what with new kid on the block David Price and all. Go Max.

Baseball Reference Game Preview

Jason Vargas vs. Max Scherzer

Don’t worry about whether the Detroit Tigers are going to make the playoffs, because the playoffs have already begun, if not already at the very beginning of the month, then certainly with this 3-game showdown against the Kansas City Royals. The Tigers have already spent the one series loss they can afford; from here on out it’s “brink of elimination” with every series as a game. If they can manage to run this gauntlet, they get to do it all over again in October. But that’s what we want. If we don’t get it, well, at least we had these playoffs, and I would rather that they go on and not fizzle out 2-3 weeks before season’s end.

Does Detroit really belong in the conversation along with Baltimore, the Los Angeles Angels, and Oakland as an AL team that can beat the best the NL can offer? The first two in the Giants series added nothing to my confidence in that regard. Last night… well, that was better, much better. OK, kind of better. I’ll let Coleman have the glowing review of Lobstein for their next turns in the rotation. I’ll only say that Rock Lobster/K-Lob/(ugh)Lobber was impressive and deserves a beach party in his honor for a much-needed apply-the-tourniquet outing.

Tigers pitching/defense Games 126-142: 5.04 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, .292 BAA and 35% of those hits for extra bases. 98 runs allowed, 14 unearned, 1 of 12 CS.

Royals comparison (Games 125-141): 3.04 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, .248 BAA and 36% of those hits for extra bases, 63 runs allowed, 11 unearned (??), 5 of 18 CS.

Tigers offense Games 126-142: 5.6 runs per game, 307/356/444/800. Every Tigers position starter save Eugenio Suarez has a (full season) higher than league average XBH/PA%.  That is outstanding well beyond a comparison with the Royals.

Royals comparison:  3.2 runs per game, 232/284/352/636. 20 stolen bases.

Identical 9-8 records in those spans. We’re afraid of these guys? The Tigers do hold a 9-4 series lead so far. On the other hand, there’s pitching.

Baseball Reference Game Preview

Jeremy Guthrie vs. Justin Verlander

Guthrie can frustrate the Tigers. Coincidentally, so can Verlander (going for career win #150). Justin’s career splits show September to be an outstanding month for him, in line with his overall excellence (April and August seem to be the rough spots). This seems to be talked about every year, with some justification. The old “time for him to step up [again]” thing. Could actually happen, eh?

Miggy and Victor are en fuego, as they say in Washington. What can possibly go wrong here?

These last two games may have put the Tigers up against the ropes, but they were not a knockout blow. The Tigers have played well enough this season to still control their own destiny with 20 games left to play in the season.

As I write this, the Royals are up 2-0 in the 4th against the Yankees, but the Tigers wills start tonight’s game knowing whether the Royals will be up 2.5 or 1.5 at game time, with the possible Tiger scenarios being back 3, back 2, or back 1. Remember that the Royals still have to tidy up a game against the Indians where they will be down by 3 in the bottom of the 10th, so more than likely, there is another 1/2 game that the Tigers will pick up. But all that is to say that if the Tigers take care of business, they can be in first place by Wed night. There’s also that whole wild card thing, but the division is the goal right now.

Kyle Lobstein gets the ball tonight at the Tigers – Giants game will be the only game on Sunday night. Lots to be excited about. In three starts covering 17 innings this year, Lobstein has 13 Ks, 8 walks, and a 3.18 ERA. He’s pitched well enough, and we’ll likely need several more of those this year as there has been no news on Sanchez in weeks, which is bad news.

Baseball Reference game preview here.

I’m headed out to the Death Star to see the Cowboys most likely get murdered, so someone please post the lineups later. I’m looking forward to coming back tonight in time to watch the Tigers start their 2014 playoff march.

#DoItForTheRotation

Not a whole lot to say about last night’s game. Porcello threw BP for a few innings, as he’s done a few times recently (anyone else starting to worry?), and then the rain came. The break somehow strengthened Jake Peavy, as he looked good after the long delay, giving up only 2 unearned runs in 6 innings. Good for his 5th win of the season against 13 losses. You heard me 5-13. On a team that has the same record at Detroit.

All the while James Shields and Wade Davis pitched the Royals to a 1-0 win, and a 2 game central division lead.

Look, it’s just one game. The Tigers aren’t going to win every game from here on out. But they do need to win close to 2/3 of them, so while today isn’t a must win, it’s a really need to win.

Bumgarner v. Price in what MLB is coining an #aceoff. Baseball Reference game preview here.

In case you’re wondering, Price is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with Detroit, which is slightly worse than his #s with Tampa. However, his FIP (which removes park factors and defense by purely focusing on the pitcher’s effectiveness at things he can more directly control – HR, BB, SO, BB, HBP) with Detroit is 2.62 versus 2.93 with Tampa, so he’s actually been better with the Tigers than he was with Tampa.

#DoItForTheRotation

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B
2. Torii Hunter, RF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B (WHY???????????????????)
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. J.D. Martinez, LF
6. Nick Castellanos, 3B
7. Eugenio Suarez, SS
8. James McCann, C (1st ML start – this C job is likely open for auditions for 2015)
9. Rajai Davis, CF