Just to be clear, I’m not “the pessimistic one” here. If The Loon had put up a post called Pessimism, I would be doing the Optimism one.

We like to cover all angles here at DTW. Opposing views are encouraged.

Barely a month after the postseason, the Tigers traded Prince Fielder and his $214 million salary (and and a whole lot of cash) to the Texas Rangers for 2B Ian Kinsler.   Oh. We weren’t expecting that, were we? While the trade may have seemed puzzling at first, the more you looked at it the better it looked. Fielder’s 2nd season in Detroit was marked by personal problems and his 2nd consecutive postseason failure, and moving him allowed the Tigers to move Cabrera back to first, open up a space for Castellanos in the lineup, let Omar Infante go (he was great for Detroit but about to become expensive), and improve the team defense and speed.

Bottom line: Fielder’s WAR (regular season) was 1.7 in 2013, he had off-field issues, had a history of postseason struggles, and was expensive. Kinsler had a 2013 WAR of 4.9, a history of postseason success, and was less expensive. Optimism seemed called for in November.

Then in December, Doug Fister was traded to the Nationals for Robbie Ray, Ian Krol, and Steve Lombardozzi. This was a head scratcher. There was some salary reduction, which it was assumed would help extend Max Scherzer (oops), but otherwise it looked lopsided, and the press agreed. The Tigers had an extra arm in the starting rotation, wanting to work in the young lefty Drew Smyly, but it seems they could have gotten more and should have waited longer.

So the Tigers entered Spring Training with two big trades behind them, but reason for optimism, and very few questions to be answered.  They had added Joe Nathan as a closer, added Joba Chamberlain for some bullpen depth, added Rajai Davis as a right-handed bat (and base-stealing threat) in LF, and the lineup looked pretty set.

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Then came March Madness.

First down was Andy Dirks. Suddenly Left Field was Rajai Davis, who can’t hit righties, and…Don Kelly. It looked like the Tigers would have to pick up an outfielder, or use newcomer Lombardozzi there, neither which looked like good options. Perhaps the most troubling thing about the loss of Dirks was Dombrowski’s statement that Dirks had had back problems since high school. Oh.

Next to drop was Jose Iglesias, from his shin splints, that turned out to be shin fractures, and this was a big blow–likely the whole season.  It turns out he probably should not have been playing last season (which takes the shine off of last year’s trade for Iglesias).

Dombrowski tried to patch holes by trading for backup shortstop Kevin Romine from the Angels, and four days later for quasi-retired Alex Gonzalez for Lombardozzi, (which makes the return on the Fister trade look even thinner).

Then down goes Rondon. Currently the set-up man in the bullpen is Joba Chamberlain (cue laugh track from Yankee fans).

Suddenly, the nagging thought clears its throat and taps one on the shoulder: the two most important Tigers, Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, are both returning from offseason surgeries.

What a way for a new manager to start his career. I was sold on the “speed and defense” emphasis that Ausmus preached, but the two best defensive players on the team are gone (Iglesias had a Gold Glove worthy glove, and–which was way under publicized–Andy Dirks was a Gold Glove finalist).

Hopefully that is all of the bad news for now, although I should point out that Don Kelly strained his hamstring, and he is backup for 11 of the 9 positions.

Here is the actual depth chart.  At least the trades for Romine and Gonzalez have taken Kelly out of the shortstop mix. As it is he is backup for 3rd, left, center, and right. As if that weren’t bad enough Davis in left was meant to be a platoon player, Hunter in right is 38, and Jackson in center plays fewer games every season (153 in 2011, 137 in 2012, and only 129 in 2013). Gonna be a whole lot of Donkey Time this year.

[This is one of the interesting things about doing these posts. Until I was in the middle of writing this it never occurred to me to be worried about Austin Jackson’s durability].

One more thing, as Columbo would say–the Tigers announced that they failed to extend Max Scherzer. That in itself may or may not be bad news. but it was certainly bad news that the Tigers are seemingly engaged in an uncharacteristic PR war with Scherzer/Boras. I think the Tiger-Boras honeymoon is over. Worth noting: unlike all other major negotiations, owner Mike Ilitch  had no direct contact with either party,  There are murmurings that Ilitch may be passing the reins, and that the open checkbook is no more, which may put the Fielder and Fister deals in a different light.

We are doomed. Doomed, I tell you!

(Pessimism is actually sort of fun if you don’t do it very often).

Less than one week until opening day. Go Tigers!

Back, shins, elbow, shoulder, hamstring. Welcome to 2014, Season Of The Body Parts. Wait, that’s the lead-in for a pessimistic article I’m not going to write.

I’ve reflected upon the boss man’s instructions to tackle the spring issues one at a time, and it seems to me we’ve covered most of them already. Position by position, there wasn’t a whole lot of debate coming into camp. I was going to do some kind of bench/depth write-up just before the even more still worser news about Jose Iglesias broke. The one issue (to date; please no more injuries) that hasn’t been covered is the overarching one, the one that’s been around since…

Last year. Did it begin with the acquisition of Iglesias? No, that was an emergency response, albeit a well-reasoned one. But in a fairly rapid flurry of after-season moves, chief among them Jim Leyland’s retirement, the Fielder/Kinsler trade, and the hiring of Brad Ausmus, it was clear that a Big Shift was going on. The offensive strategy was going to go from slugging it (or not) to a team that could make it happen even when hits were hard to come by. It was and maybe still is daunting to have lost a lot of proven run production in Fielder, Peralta, Infante, and also some bench with bigger bats, but the writing was clearly on the wall. A starting rotation like Detroit had in 2013 deserves better than 93-69. Those starters could have taken the Tigers to the World Series, but they were let down by the bullpen and a feast or famine offense that couldn’t often make up for said bullpen. The Tigers were no-hit by the Marlins in the final game of the regular season. Whoever was or wasn’t in the lineup, that remains a disgrace.

The best starting rotation in baseball remains virtually intact (fingers crossed on Sanchez and his shoulder). Fister out and Smyly in should be little if any loss, though I’ll miss Doug’s yellowhammer, best curveball on the staff in 2013. Anyway, still very strong (in the art of pitching?) here.

Joe Nathan and the law of averages all by themselves decree that the bullpen should be better. The sudden loss of Bruce Rondon isn’t good news, but it’s hardly the “crushing blow” I saw asserted in one headline. Better than 2013 here, I think.

Position players consist of 5 stars (you know who they are), 2 guys we’re not really sure of yet (Avila and Castellanos), and 6 more guys we’re really really not sure of. Is that a championship team? See “Starting Pitchers,” look up and down some MLB rosters and at a bit of history. Yes, it is a championship team, or can be. There are no all All-Star teams. (OK, for a day in July there are.) Maybe fantasy baseball has contributed to the fiction of that being a necessity. Justin Verlander says that the Detroit Tigers are a great team, and I believe him. Great teams are great teams. Detroit has enough elements in place, in spite of losses at SS and LF that cloud things a bit.

So the issue is: Can the Make It Happen offense really make it happen? At least I hope that’s the thing to watch. If it turns out not to be, we might be in bigger trouble than offense alone could possibly solve. For now… great optimism here. The evidence of spring has been that this offense certainly can make it happen, and can even explode like it used to. Then again, we’ve also seen some famine along with the feast, but for that we invoke the “it’s only spring training” clause.

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ST GAME 23

OK, sorry, but I’ve got one more mini-topic. Would’ve put it up before or at the beginning of ST, but it hadn’t occurred to me then. What were the 5 best and 5 worst moves of 2013? Consider 2013 to have ended with the ALCS. My answers to the question tomorrow, as I wait for the resounding echoes of silence to subside.

BEST

1. Rick Porcello in the rotation, Drew Smyly in the bullpen
2. Signing Torii Hunter
3. Trading for Jose Iglesias
4. Sticking with Victor Martinez through a very cold start
5. Bringing Jhonny Peralta back after the suspension

WORST

1. Bringing back Jose Valverde
2. Leaving Quintin Berry and Danny Worth off the Opening Day roster
3. Not putting Miguel Cabrera on the DL
4. Underutilizing Brayan Pena and Matt Tuiasosopo
5. Making Tom Brookens the 3B coach

9 days until it all counts. Stay healthy, get healthy, be healthy, o Detroit Tigers. Oh, and play very well, too.

Andy Dirks, our presumptive mostly-everyday LF, is having back surgery. He’ll be out 12 weeks at the least. The alarmist in me reads this as: Dirks will be out 4 months minimum, will struggle mightily when he does get back, and in essence, he’s done as a Tiger. Even the non-alarmist has to admit that chances of Dirks staying in the long-range plans for LF, 2015 and beyond, have fallen considerably. 2014 was Redemption Year for Andy, and I no longer see any redemption (or patience for it) happening. I think there will be a new direction entirely.

The short-term “what to do?” is well-covered by Jason Beck. I can’t reprise it any better. I will offer that this boosts Don Kelly’s stock. “Useful” may have become “nearly indispensable.” A plausible bench at this point would be Kelly, Worth, Lombardozzi, and Holaday. If that seems odd, consider how the Tigers could possibly carry less than two infielders with uncertainty at two positions there. Don Kelly can play all three OF positions well. I see him as less of a platoon partner for Rajai Davis and more of a 4th outfielder who might be in for a lot of playing time on a running basis. Not a whole lot different than last year’s role, really.

Which brings us to Rajai Davis. Who is this guy? Well, he’s scary fast. He’s also no great shakes as an OF defender (particularly in LF), doesn’t hit that well for average and has a low career OBP, and has no power, not even gap power (look at his triples numbers). He’s especially mediocre against RHP. I’m looking for some sign that he could surprise as more of an everyday LF than we think, and not finding it. Acquiring a solid replacement for Dirks might be in order, and forget the business with Kelly. This could be selling Trevor Crowe and Ezequiel Carrera short, though. Lots of ST to go yet.

ST GAME 6
ST GAME 7
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ST GAME 11

And now, our live and in-person Detroit Tigers ST correspondent. More excerpts from the Book of Jud:

3/3: Smyly was down – down..down… change slowed down on everyone except Peralta. high FB crank…second time up high hanger crank out again…next batter he goes down again easy ground ball. ..Both of Peralta’s were fly balls carried in the wind..just barely cleared fence. Worth played all nine innings.. no one does that…read into that what we want. Davis ran from home to third on that triple in a frickin flash!!!!..faster than AJ. Ortega threw about 11 pitches in his inning 9 were 94-96..9 were strikes. Coke was pitiful of the 5 hits he gave up..4 were to lefties. He didnt pitch with the starting D but maybe Kinsler would have gotten to acouple of the GB hits. Not one pitch over 89…one at 76 everything else at 84-88. Castellanos muffed an easy GB…but made up for it with the longest HR of the day. It was a bomb.

3/6: I was thinking about this while the rain cones down but in the game Rajai Davis hit the triple guys who are fast like Jackson round the bases so fast the bow way out so that its almost a circle the are running rounding first….Davis is different he cuts the bases so fast and tight, he almost runs a straight line between bases..I bet he takes 10-15 less steps than most fast guys on a triple.While he was running I thought he was running 65 ft softball bases …he is crazy fast!!!

3/7: Any way these pitcher drills were always kind of a joke with Leyland..lot of laughing and screwing around. The drills I am watching seem to be taken a little more seriously. Maybe cause guys are fighting for spots or maybe its because of Ausmus ..I don’t see JV and I know I would recognize him. I am outside the fence about 100 feet away. It’s still pretty wet from yesterdays rain but it always amazes me how efficient and fast the ground crew gets things done. This whole complex is beautiful. And theres lots to take care of… Marte balks in winning run…wont matter he looks exactly like Coke from the right side. batting practice pitches all 86-87 nothing on them.  Lombardozzi is like a talented Kelly. he can run and hit…Castellanos runs good. I failed to mention before that I have seen Jackson bat 6 times now and he has hit the ball on the button all 6 times. he looks good. Robby Ray is going to be just fine.

3/7: At Steinbrenner stadium the absolutely best thing is the grotto just outside the entrance to the field. there are big rocks with brass plaques of retired Yankee numbers. One for each going right up..1..Martin, 3 Ruth, 4 Gerhig, 5 DiMaggio, 7 Mantle, 8 Yogi, 9 Maris, 15 Munson……..etc….it is the coolest display ever. People whisper when in there…the ground is spotless…I am not anywhere near a Yankee fan but I am in awe when I walk thru there.

3/8:  Joba was throwing a lot of breaking balls and so was Ray. maybe it was the plan and there were some walks. but both got out of there inning. wheres as Marte just like last time was straight and pounded…we didn’t see Miggy take BP here but before the Cardinal game he went over the berm with acouple and hit the 420 CF sign in BP…he looked “normal” to me.

Commenter TIGERS RULE asks: What do we do now? We don’t have a major league ss anywhere on the team. Good question. Before Jose Iglesias’s shin splints made an unexpectedly early reappearance, I don’t think shortstop was on our list of spring issues. Now it is.

We worried about our new acrobat’s long-term health last season, but that gathered dust over the offseason. A full season of Iglesias’s defense sounded great, even if questions lingered about his hitting (minus the infield singles, it gets pretty light). Now we’re reminded of another Plan B to think about, one to go along with possible questions about Miguel Cabrera’s and Justin Verlander’s “core” recoveries.

Yes, there’s Hernan Perez and Steve Lombardozzi, neither of them true shortstops. There’s Eugenio Suarez and Dixon Machado, and by the way, what is the organizational status of Argenis Diaz? All of these could be considered as fill-ins, but long-term? I’m thinking that Danny Worth’s chances of making the team just got a lot better. If injuries become a chronic problem for Iglesias in 2014, I think it’s either Worth or go outside in trade or signing. What do you think?

In other news, injury news, Casey Crosby is battling soreness and Eduardo Sanchez is out indefinitely with something unpronounceable.

ST Game 0
ST Game 1
ST Game 2
ST Game 3
ST Game 4
ST Game 5

Your New Tigers (3-2) are showing aggression on the base paths and working out the kinks. Not much in the HR department at this early stage. Pitching news seems mostly good. The most encouraging thing so far is seeing how it’s no longer “business as usual” with Ausmus at the helm. I think we’re gonna like that.

This just in from our correspondent jud in Lakeland, notes on Spring Training:

went to morning workouts. they might have been limited by a big rain on Thursday and it was still pretty wet. The thing that strikes you immediately is watching Ausmus vs Leyland is like watching Fallon vs Leno….Ausmus is physically active in most drills..either demonstrating or correcting..he looks like he could play today.
the other thing I really liked was coaches spread out over the fields. with Leyland …Lamont, Mac, Belliard, Leyland traveled around together. Jones was usually on a different field unless pitching drills…this year staff coaches were basically working different fields …now maybe that was the plan that day…lot more energy from place to place……more tomorrow

Good stuff, keep it coming. Mercifully free of too much about the weather. I shoveled snow this morning. My legs were cold.

This time last year, the bullpen was seen as a team plus, and the only big question – big to some, anyway – was who or how to replace the involuntarily departed Jose Valverde at closer. That question was settled much later in the year by Joaquin Benoit, but by then it was clear that the bullpen had gone off the rails, and the closer issue was more of an excuse or distraction than a reason. We come into 2014 with an opposite situation: closer settled and nothing else, bullpen seen as weakness and concern. Kinda funny.

Out with Benoit, Jose Veras, and Darin Downs, in with Joe Nathan, Ian Krol, and Joba Chamberlain. One might wonder why it wasn’t in with Joe Nathan and leave it at that. Was money a big factor? Although both Benoit and Veras were proven and solid, there’s a parallel with the Prince Fielder departure. We remember the 2013 postseason and are encouraged to turn the page. If you remember the 2013 ALCS, you will recall two particular heartbreaks that encourage us not to miss Benoit and Veras. Also, the absence of Benoit will, over the course of a season, save 7 hours of waiting for him to deliver pitches. Enjoy the suspense, San Diego.

Instead of a rock-solid back end, we have Joe White and the Seven Dwarfs. OK, Six Dwarfs, and yes I know it should be “Dwarves.” Among the dwarfs, though, there is a great deal of talent, talent that (as always) may or may not succeed. The rise and fall of bullpens is a volatile and seemingly random business. For most bullpens most years, it’s not a matter of big names turning in big name performances, but one of just enough guys finding their groove to start a movement. Could happen here.

The inside track on 5 spots is held by Bruce Rondon, Chamberlain, Krol, Al Alburquerque, and Phil Coke. Rondon issue: Staying healthy long enough to show anything. We don’t need another Joel Zumaya, Eternal Prospect. Alburquerque issue: His fastball. No one can or ever will hit his slider. Coke issue: Rediscovering the force of nature he was in the 2012 postseason. Chamberlain and Krol just have to show up.

After that, it’s a lot of guys competing for anywhere from 1 to 3 spots. Aside from opining that I was impressed with Jose Ortega last season, I’ll just list the names and leave the analysis and opinion to you. I’ll include all the guys to watch in ST, actually, though some are exceedingly unlikely to be expected to compete for a spot with the big club right now.

Casey Crosby#
Melvin Mercedes
Justin Miller
Jose Ortega
Luke Putkonen
Evan Reed
Jose Valdez
Duane Below#
Blaine Hardy#
Jhan Marinez
Eduardo Sanchez
Luis Marte

Don’t see Mud Hen Kenny Faulk# on the list of non-roster invitees, which doesn’t seem right. Not sure about Jeremy Bonderman’s status with the organization or that of a couple other (other than Faulk) Mud Hens.

In case you missed it:

Rag ball

Kenny Rogers

Taking over

Coordinating D

Eno on Grandy

We look forward to Lakeland dispatches from jud and other commenters bold enough to brave the harsh Florida winter and witness spring training in person. The first games are close at hand.

With the dawn of any new season, there are always a number of (seemingly) pressing stories heading into spring training. Hopefully Coleman and Smoking Loon will take my cue here and allow us at DTW to focus on them one by one.

I’d like to start at third base.

(note, all stats below are from FanGraphs, they could vary slightly at BR)

According to FanGraphs, Miguel Cabrera had the 2nd highest 3B WAR in all of MLB last year at 7.6. Josh Donaldson, and his 12.1 Def rating snuck ahead of Cabrera at 7.7

Cabrera’s -14.6 def rating at 3B was just a shade behind David Freese for the worst 3B Def rating in all of baseball, and was the 6th worst defensive player rating in all of baseball. (Prince Fielder, who managed a -16.5 at 1B, was the 3rd worst according to FanGraphs). The effect of poor corner d in the D has been well documented for the last two years, and was definitely a factor in the Fielder for Kinsler swap last November.

With Cabrera returning to 1B, this shores up 1B, and opens up a spot in the field for Nick Castellanos.

Castellanos, who is by all accounts an average fielding 3B, should still be a noticeable improvement in terms of range on the left side of the infield. Playing next to Iglesias will help significantly. Offensively, Castellenos is expected to hit around .270 with 10-15 home runs, but we’ve got some time to let the kid grow. If he can manage to play average baseball and mature at the big league level, we’ll be alright. He’s been the Tigers top prospect for two years now, so I’m as excited as anyone to see what he can do.

The question for you today is what happens if Castellanos gets injured or isn’t quite yet ready (or insists on playing left field)?. There isn’t another true 3B on the roster and Lombardozzi (picked up from Was for Fister, remember?) and Kelly would have to fill in. Yikes. I can’t imagine that Lombardozzi and Kelly are expected to log a high number of at bats at 3B. I’m guessing that Castellanos will get his shot early, but if things don’t pan out, DD will bring someone else in.

In other news…

Kinsler’s #5 is retired – Hank Greenberg. So he’s gonna wear #3 in the hopes of renewing a little #1 to #3 magic.

This got me thinking of those mid 80’s Tigers teams…not a HoFer on them. And we’ve got two first ballot guys right now.