Monthly Archives: April 2005

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So where will the wins come from

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My thoughts all along this offseason were that the AL Central was getting better. The Twins will continue to be good, the Indians and Tigers are improving, and the White Sox are …mmmm… the White Sox. While I didn’t count on any of the four aforementioned teams being dominating, I thought they could all be .500 or a couple ticks above. The problem is that there are only so many wins to go around in the Central, and I don’t know how the Central teams will fare outside the division. The Royals aren’t cooperating by actually winning a game, so can the Central actually support 4 teams with winning-ish records?

The chart below shows how the AL Central teams fared against each division

The Twins dominated a weak division, but were basically a .500 team outside the division. The White Sox and Indians fared similarly outside the division, but weren’t able to match the Twins success against their rivals. The Tigers managed to put up a .473 winning percentage in the Central, but only .418 outside. Even the Royals who bolstered a lot of teams’ records across the league managed to not be awful in the Central.

So are the teams records in the Central representative of their talent relative to the rest of the league? And more importantly, has the talent in the Central improved relative to the rest of the league so that they can improve their extra-divisional records?

In terms of player movement, I don’t see a significant surge of talent into the Central. The Tigers picked up Percival from the West and the Indians got Millwood from the NL. The White Sox exchanged players, but I’m not sure that they are better (Dye, Podsednik in, Carlos Lee out). Corey Koskie left for the East, but Boone came into the Central. If there is additional talent from player movement, it isn’t substantial.

For the Central to be substantially better relative to the league this year, it has to come from player development within (kind of a running theme huh?). It’s Jeremy Bonderman, Morneau and Mauer, Martinez and Perralta. If the Central is going to have 4 winning teams, it is the development of these players that is going to swing the balance.

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As good as it gets

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You know how when you’re looking forward to something so much, that as it approaches you start to fear that it will never live up to your expectations? That is what I was thinking yesterday morning. I’d been looking forward to the Opener for months, and I had built it up to be the best day of the year. Somehow, Opening Day managed to exceed my loftiest expectations.

Opening Day is about more than winning and losing. However, a 11-2 win on Opening Day will always be tremendously exciting. Similarly, a high 60’s April day in Detroit would be very acceptable as well, regardless of the outcome of the game. Put the two together and you’ve got pure baseball bliss.

It wasn’t just the win and the weather, it was the storylines that went along with it. The big story of course was Dmitri Young with the 3 dingers and a curtain call. And really, is there another Tiger player that you’d rather see celebrating than the gregarious Young?

But the best moment of all was delivered by Jeremy Bonderman. While his entire start was impressive, the ultimate came in the second inning. John Lowe captured it perfectly:

Up came veteran left-handed hitter Terrence Long. Bonderman got ahead of him, 0-2. On the two lefty hitters before me, he threw the 3-2 slider as his out pitch, Long thought. Now I’ve got two strikes on me. He’s going to throw the slider.

Bonderman instead threw an inside fastball. Long took it for strike three. He couldn’t have put it in a better spot, Long thought

Here Bonderman is, up 0-2 in the count and Long is looking for his out pitch, probably out of the zone. Instead Bonderman came with all 94mph right in the zone and you could see it from way upstairs that Long didn’t even have a shot.

Yes it was only one game. Yes it was against the Royals. Regardless, the Tigers put on a great show in front of a primed and packed Comerica Park.

Renovations
The Tigers did a fine job with their outfield seating and bullpen renovations. The seats in right field look like they’ve been there all along. Most impressive was the new bullpen area in leftfield. The bullpen area involves a glass and brick structure sunk into the ground. It was somewhat reminiscent of the way the bullpens at Tiger Stadium were submerged – only much nicer.

Crowding the Place
An article in Crain’s this week highlights the rise in Tiger ticket sales.

The Tigers’ full-season equivalents – the full-season packages and partial-season packages that combine to create a full season – are up to 10,800 this year from 8,989 last year, Raymond said. In 2003, the 119-loss year, the full-season equivalents were 7,400.

The article also states that the Tigers have sold all their suites, and all are locked into long term contracts.

I’m not sure what the Tigers attendance goal is this season, but 2.15 million definitely seems possible.

Last year the Tigers seemed to thrive on big Comerica crowds. The Tigers were 13-7 when drawing more than 30,000 fans last year.

Twins sign new contract
John Bonnes, known as the TwinsGeek is one of the longest running team bloggers out there. In an unprecedented move, the Minnesota Twins have become a sponsor of his site. It’s a great move by the Twins from the standpoint of focusing on your target audience. It’s also great for John and other bloggers as well. Congratulations John!

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Opening Day

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It’s finally here (sighs blissfully).

That’s about all I can muster up this morning, as we sit on cusp of what should be Detroit’s first winning season since 1993. Jeremy Bonderman, the man who carries the Tigers’ hopes will also be carrying the ball today against the Royals. With a forecast in the low 60’s with sun, things are shaping up for this to be the best opener in recent memory.

As for me, I’ll be at the game so I won’t be posting any updates. My pregame ritual will take me to a coney island for breakfast, before heading down to Casey’s. Casey’s is by the old Tiger Stadium at Michigan and Rosa Parks. While there are some fine establishments closer to Comerica Park (i.e. Towne Pump, Detroit Beer Co., etc) I prefer the tradition that the older bars (i.e. Casey’s, Nemo’s) provide.

As I said, I’ll be at the game so I won’t have any commentary. However, feel free to post any thoughts in the comments. Or, check out one of the great message boards like MotownSports that will have a lively game thread running.

Other Stuff
As is old news by now, the Tigers put Steve Colyer and Gary Knotts on waivers, and both made it through. Knotts is in Toledo, and Colyer is with the Mets organization after being traded for Mike Ginter. This isn’t a big move, so it doesn’t deserve big commentary. So my take on it is: “it should be okay.”

Knotts meanwhile is complaining of shoulder soreness. That may explain why in his start last week, his fastball was sitting in the high 80’s instead of the low 90’s.

And former Tiger Alex Sanchez was the first player busted in the new steroid program. I don’t even know what to make of this.

More Predictions
The crew at TigersCentral has their season preview up, which is worth checking out.

And Lynn Henning says second place for the Tigers.

David Pinto picks the Tigers to finish 3rd.

2005 Season, Uncategorized

Previewing the Offense – Catcher, Outfield, and DH

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Time to wrap up the season preview with catchers, outfield, and DH. The other previews are linked to below:
Rotation
BullPen
Offense-Infield

Catcher
The desperate Tigers gave a desperate Pudge $40 million dollars last year and everybody seemed to benefit. Rodriguez was instrumental in the Tigers return to the 70 win range, and found himself in the MVP race after batting .500 in June. His RC27 was 7.37 last year which was markedly higher than his previous 3 years (6.78, 6.98, 6.11). Pudge reported to camp substantially lighter this year, and it remains to be seen what effect it will have on his performance. It appears that most of the weight Pudge lost was in the midsection that contributed to his nickname. As such, I wouldn’t expect a lack of bat speed. Like Carlos Guillen, he probably won’t be able to replicate last season, however he’ll still be very good. I’m also hoping that a “not-so-Pudge” will be able to log more playing time as well. A RC27 of 6.5 should be attainable over 140 games, meaning his RC total should be 101.

Former Met Vance Wilson will be assuming back up duties this year. His career RC27 is 3.7 which seems reasonable. Over the remaining games Wilson should have 9 RC.

Catcher: 110 Runs Created
Change From Last Year: +5

Outfield and DH
I was saving this for last for the sole reason that I really have no idea how playing time will be allocated. When Trammell kept Higginson, that really through things out of whack. Instead of looking at each outfield position seperately, I’ll look at it as a group, and then explain what I expect from each player.

Below is a table with my best guess at playing time allocation:

Magglio Ordonez
He was the easiest part of this exercise. He’ll be playing right field or DH. I really think that the knee is fully recovered. Given his history of health prior to last year, I think he’ll play the bulk of the season without incident. However, I think Tram will be cautious and “rest” him at DH about once a week or so. His RC27 the last 3 years was 5.94, 7.55, and 8.29. The 5.94 came last year and isn’t probably indicative. I expect he’ll bounce back from that, but be adversely effected moving from Cellular One to Comerica and am forecasting a RC27 of 6.5.

Craig Monroe
I’m expecting big things from Monroe this year. Though his performance the last two seasons differed substantially, the net result was still pretty good. Defensively I’m not expecting a gold glove, but I think the ability he does have, and his willingness to learn will make him passable in center. Two years ago his RC27 was 4.3 and it improved to 6.0 last year. At age 28, I think he’s got a little room to improve and I’m projecting a 6.1 in 150 games across the three outfield positions.

Rondell White
I like Rondell. He seems to get a long with everybody in the clubhouse. He’s a pretty steady performer. And he really seems to enjoy being a Detroit Tiger. However, defensively he’s weak, and at 33 with his history of injury I think 115 games is realistic. His RC27 dropped from 5.7 to 5.2 last year. Despite his great spring, I’m expecting it to drop a little more to 5.0.

Bobby Higginson
The fact that Bobby made the team is pretty surprising. In fact, I had half of a “Closing the Books on Bobby” post already written. That being said, Higginson does have some value as a left handed pinch hitter in a lineup that is heavily righthanded. He won’t get the game breaking hit with his sub .400 slugging percentage, but he should be able to keep a rally alive given his ability to talk a walk. I don’t think he’ll be getting a ton of starts, and barring an injury I think he’ll be gone before June. His RC27 was 4.55 last year, and I’d expect about the same this year.

Marcus Thames
All spring you heard Trammell talking about guys having to “earn it.” Thames had a huge spring, but lost out to Higginson. I think I may be low on my playing time predictions for Thames, but seeing as he isn’t even on the big league club yet I wasn’t sure how much to put him down for. A RC27 of 5.0 seems reasonable. If he exceeding that, he’ll probably be getting himself some more playing time.

Nook Logan
Logan will get the occasional start in center, but by and large he will be a pinch runner and late inning defensive sub. He managed a surprising .340 OBA in limited time last year. That earned him a RC27 of 3.9. I don’t expect he’ll hit quite that well again and have him at 3.5.

Curtis Granderson
I don’t know if he’ll be the savior in centerfield everybody is hoping for or not, but he should be decent. I really have very little history to go on here. I do think he’ll be in the majors before the September call-ups. I’m taking a shot in the dark on a RC27 of 4.5.

Dmitri Young
This leaves about 125-130 games for Young at DH (with him picking up about 15 games at first). I covered Dmitri briefly in the Infield section and I’m projecting a 6.0 RC27 for him next year.

Outfield: 307 Runs Created
Change From Last Year: +39

DH: 107 Runs Created
Change From Last Year: +26

Wrapping it All Up
So in total, I have the Tigers offense scoring 896 runs this year. Last year that would have been good enough for third place. Now each player prediction on its own seemed plausible, but the total seems a little optimisitic to me. Combined with the 59 run improvement I have in store for the pitching staff, and their pythagorean record becomes 91-71. While it would make that season ending series in Minnesota very interesting, I think a 90 win season would be pretty much best case.

I expect the Tigers to settle in with a win total of about 83, but anything from 79-86 wouldn’t really surprise me. A win total anywhere in the range would probably clump them with Cleveland and Chicago. So they could finish anywhere from second to fourth. I think they are better than Chicago, and just a hair behind Cleveland so I’m picking them to finish 3rd.

My biggest concern heading into this year is the defense. It was awful last year, and the Tigers didn’t really make substantial moves to improve it. Yes, Eric Munson is gone, but Munson was only making errors for half a season at one position. Also gone is Alex Sanchez, but he has been replaced with a corner outfielder. Add in Carlos Guillen, who was slightly above average last year, probably losing some range due to his knee injury and the team outlook isn’t that good. The toll the defense takes on a young pitching staff could be substantial.

Speaking of young pitching, I’m most excited to see what Jeremy Bonderman can do this season. He’s poised to make “the leap.” Whether or not it happens remains to be seen. I’m also curious to see how Tram manages this year. He’s acknowledged that he doesn’t have a speed team, and hopefully his small ball tendencies will continue to wane.

In any case, enough previews and predictions. Let’s Play Ball!

Interviews

Interviewing Ernie – Part 2

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Continuing on with my interview with Ernie Harwell. Click here for part one.

DTW: Since the format of the Veterans Committee was changed, there have been two elections, and nobody was elected. Do you think that?s appropriate, or do you think that the Committee will be changed again?

EH: Well, I think they might tweak it, but I think one of the strengths of the Baseball Hall of Fame is that it?s more difficult to get into than most other halls of fame in sports. And I?d like to keep it that way. I don?t think it?s really bad that you don?t elect anybody. But I also think that probably, in the long run, that the Veteran?s Committee is something that time has bypassed. I think most of the people that really belong in there, with a few exceptions, have been selected by the writers. I don?t like the idea of the second chance that is symbolized by the Veteran?s Committee. I know a lot of people disagree with that because there are some players that are on the cusp, on the margin there that I?d like to see in. But I like that it?s tough to get in.
DTW: My favorite player is Lou Whitaker, does he have a shot?

EH: I don?t think so. I think the voting that we?ve seen indicates that he wouldn?t have much of a chance. He?s very deserving if you look at the stats, and compare him with second basemen who are in there. He ranks right near the top I?d say, but there are a lot of things that factor in. One of them is exposure in the World Series. One of them is the media center in New York. I think a lot of things get factored in and he doesn?t have much of a chance.
DTW: So the same fate is probably true of his Tiger teammates like Trammell as well?

EH: Regretfully I have to say it does. His showing in the balloting just wasn?t strong enough to give us any optimism that he?ll get in.
DTW: Given the recent steroid allegations, if they came up on the VC ballot, would you vote for some of the guys who?ve been accused/suspected like Bonds and McGwire?

EH: I think I?d vote in favor of those two guys.

I really think the steroid situation will die down in a little while. It was brought to the attention of Congress and I think it?s a good that it?s out in the open. And I also felt that baseball could have avoided that if commissioner and players union had gotten together earlier and had nipped it in the bud, and issued a strong policy against steroids which they didn?t do. And they still haven?t done.

Although it was a great embarrassment to baseball, I think it?s good that it came out and maybe something will happen now to strengthen the ruling about using steroids.

The way I feel about records is that you have to take them as they come. I don?t believe anybody would be able to figure it out. Let?s take say Barry Bonds, and you were to make some asterisk to his home run total. I don?t know how you?d figure out when he started taking steroids, or if he did. It?s such a murky situation. I think we sort of have to just accept it, and as we talk about it just say ?well, he probably took steroids while he was playing.?

DTW: Does this just become another era like pre-segregation, WWII, the spitball era, the deadball era?

EH: Yeah, I think so. I think you?ve got to say back in 1909 guys were hitting less than 10 home runs and leading the league ?that was one era, just like you said. Then the spitball came in and went out and that was another era. Then you had the so-called lively ball coming in. Way back you had moving the pitching mound back to 60 feet, 6 inches. And you have more changes like that. You have smaller ball parks, bigger guys, and there are so many variations that come and go in baseball. I think this just has to be another one.
DTW: Speaking of eras, is there one you are most fond of, or would have like to have seen?

EH: I sort of would have liked to have been around during the dead ball era. I think that was pretty interesting. First the ballparks were primitive. The equipment wasn?t very good. But, maybe things were a little purer then, about the game than they are now. Though they had a lot of rascals, and a lot of things happened that they?d [laughing] put an evil eye on now. But from a standpoint of what we knew how people followed the game at that time, it was really more just a game. The only way people followed the games those days was through the newspapers. You didn?t have the investigation, and all the pressure and media attention that you have now that puts the spotlight on everything and digs in the dirt and brings out somethings we don?t want to know.
DTW: Over the years I know you?ve amassed a large collection of memorabilia and artifacts. Are there a couple that are most special to you?

EH: Well, I?ve gotten rid of most of them because I gave them to the library. The Detroit Public Library has most of my stuff. And when we moved in 2003, I just couldn?t bring the stuff with me so we had an auction. An auction house in Chicago auctioned off what was left that I didn?t give to the library. So I really don?t have anything anymore. I had a Babe Ruth check at one time. I had my World Series rings, a replica of the 1968 World Series trophy. I had signed pictures from guys. I was proud of all those things, but you?ve got to move on.
DTW: To wrap things up, I?m going to ask you about some of your favorites
DTW: What was your favorite season to call?

EH: Well, I think that it is probably 1968 or 1984. They were pretty equal. 1968 a little bit more maybe because it followed the riots and it was a longer interim between championships between ?45 and ?68 than ?68 and ?84. So I think that one would probably be my favorite.

Ebbetts field in Brooklyn was really great for me because it was my first job, and I really liked the people. The Dodgers had a contending team, a pennant winner my second year there.

There?s so many things. You know the Giants won in ?51 and that was a great thrill. Just going to Baltimore and being the first announcer there was a great break for me as well.

So it?s hard to put your finger on, but I?d probably say it?s the ?68 Tigers.

DTW: Favorite manager?

EH: I?ve got a lot of them. The guy I like the best out of all the managers I worked with was probably Sparky. I think he was probably the best manager that I saw. I liked Durocher, he was a good sharp one. Bob Scheffing was one of my personal favorites. Although he didn?t last too long, we were real close friends. Paul Richards was another one that I had a lot of admiration for. He taught me more about baseball than any of the other guys.
DTW: Favorite umpire?

EH: [laughing] I guess Nestor Shylack. I liked his attitude. I liked his enthusiasm. I liked the way he approached the game. I liked the way he was fairly liberal with not tossing guys out. And he was an excellent umpire. There were a lot of great ones, but I think probably he was my favorite.
DTW: Most interesting baseball character?

EH: I tell you we could make a list of a hundred of those. Norman Cash probably. Clint Courtney was another one. A fellow named Ray Murray in Baltimore, a sort of a journey man catcher was another one. Mark Fydrich. And Ted Williams was always an interesting personality I thought.
DTW: One of my favorite things about listening to you call games were the anecdotes that you?d sprinkle throughout the broadcast. What are a couple of your favorite baseball stories?

EH: Well you know, everybody has a different reaction I guess. One of them that I liked a lot was the rookie in the Southern League. Joe Engel was sort of the Barnum of Baseball in the minor leagues, sort of an early Bill Veeck. He had a shortstop that was holding out. In those days a telegram was a big deal. You negotiated by Western Union. He got a telegram from this guy who said ?Pay me $5000 or count me out.? So Joe Engel sent back a telegram that said, ?One, Two, Three, Four, Five, Six, Seven, Eight, Nine, Ten.?

Another one I like is Gene Mauch, when he retired as a player he actually got a hammer and nails and nailed his shoes up against his locker.

Those things, there?s millions of them and it is sort of hard to put your finger on one. I sort of like the one about the two-tone bat. It started when Dixie Walker went to Louisville and he found a bat in a bucket of paint. About half way up the bat was one color, and the rest of the way up the bat was another color. That started the two-tone bat.

But all those things I like to delve into them because they are a little bit different.

At this point we wrapped things up and I thanked Mr. Harwell profusely.

He was very generous with this tims, and very patient with me as I nervously stumbled through my questions. I grew up listening to Ernie, and the number of times that he and Paul Carey put me to bed at night were countless. I’d set my clock-radio to ‘Sleep’ and listen as long as I could stay awake. When I shared that with Ernie his response was simply, “we sure cured a lot of insomnia.”

The biggest thrill for me doing this interview was listening to Ernie talk about some of his favorite stories. Each story on its own isn’t that remarkable. However, it is all the small stories, like the ones he shared, that seperate baseball from the other sports. It’s the funny quotes and situations that can only be born in the midst of a summer long schedule. When the stories are combined they form the fabric of the games itself. And to hear Ernie tell the stories in his own voice, that is what baseball is all about.

I know that some of you commented in the other post that you could hear Ernie saying the words as you read them. I exerienced a similar phenomenon while conducting the interview. Hearing him talk was so second nature, I almost forgot sometimes that I was having a conversation with him, and not listening on the radio. It was a tremendous thrill for me to do this, and I hope that you guys enjoy it.

Interviews

Interviewing Ernie – Part 1

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For those who have lived in the metro Detroit area, there is one voice that is instantly equated with summer. That voice belongs to Mr. Ernie Harwell. Harwell called Tiger games from 1960 through his retirement in 2002 (except for a messy 1992 season). Prior to coming to Detroit, he worked for Baltimore, the NY Giants, and the Brooklyn Dodgers.

He’s called no-hitters, World Series’, Willie Mays debut, Bobby Thomson’s shot heard round the world, and has seen and experienced the game like few others have. He remains the only announcer to be acquired via a trade (Branch Rickey sent Cliff Dapper to the Atlanta Crackers in exchange for Harwell). Harwell’s distinctive voice and no frills attention to detail led to a longevity that made evenings at the cottage with Ernie a tradition and rite of summer.

Mr. Harwell was kind enough to spend a morning speaking with me over the phone. Here is part 1 of that interview:

DTW: How is your retirement going?

EH: Well, retirement is going beautifully. I just took another direction, I’m still as active as I was, I’m just not doing play by play. I’m the spokesman for Blue Cross Blue Shield. We signed a ten year contract with a ten year option so I’m going to have to live to be 106 to fulfill it. But I’m going to do it or die trying, one or the other. It keeps me busy. I do a lot of speaking, a lot of commercials. They use me on the billboards at Ford Field, Comerica Park and all over Michigan. It’s been pretty productive for us and it’s been a great association.

Also I’ll be writing my column for the Free Press. It starts next week and I’ve been doing it every summer for 15 years now.

And in addition to that I do about 27 vignettes on FSN Detroit that they use. Just sort of stand up and tell a story and reminisce a little bit.

And other than that I’m just sort of hanging around here. I don’t miss the play by play much. I did it for seven decades and 55 years, so I feel like that was enough. I did enough damage and I’m just going to let other guys do it now.

DTW: Do you still follow the Tigers closely?

EH: Yes I do. I went down to spring training. I got to schmooze around with them a little bit. I had dinner with Alan Trammell and some of the other guys. I keep an eye on them, more as a fan now than as a worker. But, I don’t follow them quite as closely, naturally, because I don’t travel with them. But I go down to the ballpark now and then.
DTW: Do you watch the games on TV or listen on the radio?

EH: I listen on the radio most of the time, but if there’s TV I might look a little bit at that.
DTW: Do you have a prediction for how they’re going to finish this year?

EH: Well, I think everybody’s optimistic, but that’s part of it being spring time you know? I feel everything is going good. I think they’ll be better. I’m not quite as optimistic as some people. So much depends on that young pitching staff. We’ve got to wait and see if they continue to be promising and see how they establish themselves as major league starters.
DTW: Speaking of spring training and optimism, you started a tradition of reading a verse from the Song of Solomon (2, 11:12), the Voice of the Turtle. How did that begin?

EH: Well, I had been in Detroit for quite a while before that started. I’d say it was probably in the mid 70’s or early 80’s. I don’t have any idea that I can put my finger on it precisely. But I was reading that in the bible and it sort of struck me that this reminded me a lot of spring training and Opening Day, and I began to use it and people picked it up so I kept on using it.
DTW: Before coming to Detroit you were with the Dodgers, Giants, and Baltimore. What was it about Detroit that made it your final destination?

EH: Detroit was always a favorite city of mine when I traveled in the American League when I went to Baltimore in 1954. The first two games the Orioles played in their new Major League situation were in Tiger Stadium. I used to come to Detroit with the Orioles and I really liked the town a lot, and made some friends here. Then when Van Patrick was out as the announcer after the 1959 season, the Tigers got in touch with me and wanted to know if I’d be interested in leaving Baltimore. I felt like I had a good job there, and I was very happy there but I’d be foolish not to listen to an offer. They made me a good offer and I decided I’d come.

The franchise at that time was a well established franchise. It was a great baseball town, Michigan had terrific support for the Tigers. All those things enticed me to come here.

DTW: George Kell was involved in you coming to Detroit, as the two of you had met in Baltimore, and he was currently with the Tigers. Do you still keep in touch with Mr. Kell? I know that he’s had a rough streak.

EH: He’s had a tough time. I’ve called him several times. The last time I called him he couldn’t’ get to the phone, but I talked to his wife Carolyn. He has had a struggle.

When he was playing he got hurt in Baltimore, and he was up and around the press box so I said come on, get on the air with us. He did a few innings on the radio with us and seemed to like it. Then he got a job with CBS on the pregame show. He landed a job here [Detroit], and when an opening came up he called me in New York right at the end of the season in ’59. He told me the Tigers were interested in me and asked if I’d come. So there was a little payback there and we had a great association.

DTW: One anecdote I heard about you in the booth is that you would set an egg timer to remind you to give the score. Is that true?

EH: I did that for a little while, but that was sort of a Red Barber thing. He did that in Brooklyn, and would give the score and then turnover the egg timer. But it took a little bit too long I think, to drain the sand out and I felt you ought to give the score a little more often than that. I really made that my number one priority. If you don’t do that the listener really can’t set himself or herself psychologically as to how to listen to the game. I believe that’s the first thing that an announcer has to do is to keep people informed about what the score is.
DTW: You called a number of significant moments, like pennant clinching games and no-hitters. Is there anything that you would do to prepare for those dramatic ninth innings?

EH: I never did that. I just thought it would be more effective if you just react to whatever happens. You can never anticipate how it’s going to happen. Sometimes, like Aaron’s homer you can look forward to, but it’s too contrived to prepare what you’re going to say. So I always just let it go and react in the way that it hit me when the event happened.
DTW: Calling the last inning at Tiger Stadium, you did something very uncharacteristic for you and ignored the action on the field to read a tribute. Were there any other times that you broke away from the game like that?

EH: No, I’d prepared a little bit of a speech there as I remember it. I felt like I had to do that. It was uncharacteristic, you’re right about that. I can’t remember another time. I think in Baltimore we came back and did something after the game was over. And I think in Toronto [Ernie’s final game] we did it right at the end of the game.
DTW: As part of the speech you prepared for the last game at Tiger Stadium, you referred to the stadium as , “My home, my office, my refuge…A timeless gift to the past.” What do you think should be done with Tiger Stadium and what do you think of it standing empty.

EH: Ideally I think they should make some kind of a shrine out of it. Maybe keep it alive and have sandlot baseball or something like that. But it seems like it is such a large problem to get money to maintain it, I don’t think that’s going to happen. I think eventually it will either fall down or be the victim of the wrecking ball.

I know a lot of people in the years since the closing of the stadium had been imminent have had grandiose ideas about what to do but, nobody has come up with any money. They have a lot of neat things that they think should happen, but nobody comes up with the backing. I just don’t think it’s going anywhere.

DTW: At this point would you rather see it knocked down or have it sit there and rot?

EH: Well, I think so. It’s a matter of practicality. I think it would probably cost a lot more money to knock it down than have it fall down. Either way it is going to be a sad occasion, but I think the better way to do it would be to have the wrecking ball take over.
DTW: In your Hall of Fame induction speech, you read an essay you penned in 1955 called “Baseball – A Game for All America.” It’s been 50 years since you wrote that. Does it still hold true for you, and would you change it at all?

EH: Oh yeah, I’d bring it up to date. I’ve been tempted to do that. I think ESPN or CBS or somebody had a TV game opening the season and they asked me to change it a little bit and I did for that occasion. But I always felt that I should leave it as is. If I ever recite it I always say that times have changed and a lot of things have happened to the game, good and bad. But I really think the spirit of the game between the lines is pretty much the same as it was.

I’ve had people know it’s written in 1955 because you say things like Honus Wagner hit a triple 46 years ago [laughing], and there are a lot of great players that aren’t even mentioned in that. You have to be selective when you make it. For instance I didn’t mention Ted Williams although he was contemporary then. Then people that came later like Hank Aaron, and Roger Maris, and Barry Bonds aren’t even in there. That’s why I think it’s better to keep it the way it is and give a little preface.

Part 2 will becoming in the next day or two once I get a chance to transcribe it, and we’ll talk about the Hall of Fame, the Veterans Committee, and steroids in baseball.

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Previewing the Offense – Infield Edition

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Continuing in the season preview series, I’ll now take a look at the infield. To predict the offensive contributions I’ll be using Runs Created and Runs Created per 27 outs (RC27). Runs created in it’s shortest form is on base average times total bases. RC27 is the number of runs a team of 9 identical players would typically score in a game. There have been several refinements to this formula to take more into account. Last year the Tigers RC was 844 and their actual runs scored was 827, or a variance of 17 runs – so it’s pretty darn close.

Now on to the predictions…

First Base
A late power surge last year pushed Carlos Pena to a career high 27 home runs. Pena seems to have settled in as a .245 hitter who becomes more valuable by walking a great deal. He had 70 walks last year and posted a .338 OBA despite his batting average. He also slugged .472 which is respectable given his batting average as well. Given the fact that he is the Tigers only left handed power threat, he stands to play pretty much every day. The only thing that would deter him are injuries and playing really really poor. His RC27 the last 3 years has been rising (4.76, 4.92, 5.34) and following that line I’d peg him at 5.77. If he plays 150 games that works out to 96 runs created.

Dmitri Young will get the rest of the starts at first, and his RC27 numbers when healthy are between 6 and 7. Last year he dipped to 5.6. A return to 6.0 is feasible and he should account for an additional 8 runs created.

First Base: 104 Runs Created.
Change From Last Year: +10

Second Base
Omar Infante started off last year trying to forget his previous season. In 2003 he was given the opportunity to start, only to be demoted to Toledo mid-season. He made the club as a utility player because the Tigers had signed Fernando Vina to play second base. An early season ending (and probably career ending) injury to Vina opened the door for Infante to play, and Omar capitalized. He slugged .449 as a 22 year old and played an adequate second base. He will get the bulk of the starts at second base health permitting. He’s had back problems in the past, and has battled a sore shoulder this spring which puts him at a higher injury risk than I’d like to see. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his power regress slightly (he’s never hit for that kind of power in his major or minor league career before), but I think his average and OBA will increase slightly. In short I’d expect the same kind of production as last year and he will contribute 73 RC over 140 games.

Jason Smith and Ramon Martinez will provide backup duties for second, third, and short. Smith’s RC27 last year was 3.9 while Martinez’s was 3.6. For simplicity sake we’ll call the backup infielder duo has 3.7 RC27. Over 22 games that is 9 runs.

Second Base: 82 Runs Created.
Change From Last Year: +5

Third Base
Prior to 2004, Brandon Inge had a career .198/.254/.315 offensive line. That was the worst performance in the Majors from 2001-2003 (minimum 900 plate apperances). That’s what makes last year’s .287/.340/.453 so surprising. Inge made the team despite his offensive performance because he could back up 3 critical positions – centerfield, third base, and catcher. Given that Chris Shelton was holding on to a roster spot but not contributing that made Inge a valuable component. When Munson failed to hold onto the third base job, it became Inge’s for the taking.

Despite Inge’s success last year, the Tigers weren’t sold on it. They tried to acquire free agents to man the hot corner including Adrian Beltre, Troy Glaus, and Edgar Renteria (to play short and move Guillen to 3rd). However the Tigers didn’t find any takers. Inge will probably get 130 starts or so at third if he can hit at all. I think his power was real last year as his isolated power has been on the rise (IsoP is slugging minus batting average) from .131 to .136 to .167 last year. His plate discipline has been fairly steady as well. I’d expect his average to dip though to the .250 range for a stat line of .250/.315/.410 or a reduction of about 9% in his OPS. His RC27 last year was 5.39 and if that is reduced 9% it would be 4.91. Over 135 games that is 74 runs created.

With the backup crew picking up the remaining games, that is 11 more RC.
Third Base: 85 Runs Created.
Change From Last Year: -4

Shortstop
If only the Tigers could trade minor league non-prospects for guys that find themselves in the MVP race every year…Carlos Guillen looked to be a good player heading into last year, and I expected a big season from him – like a .280 hitter who might slug in the low .400s. Instead the Tigers had to settle for .318/.379/.542 and a hitter that they could slot anywhere in the batting order. What remains to be seen is if this new level of performance is sustainable, or a freakish career year. My take is that he won’t be able to repeat his performance in 2004, but he won’t slip all the way back to his career levels either. His RC27 had been on the rise from 4.03 to 4.45 to 4.83 prior to last year’s 7.60. I think part of his jump was moving to a new team and environment that fit him. I also think part of it was related to his age. And part of it was simply luck. I’m going to guess that his RC27 will be 6.0 and that he’ll manage 135 games (that has definitely been more predictable over his career). The results is 90 runs created.

The back up crew will pick up the remaining games and will contribute 11 runs.
Shortstop: 101 Runs Created.
Change From Last Year: -21

I’ll cover outfield, DH and catcher in the next edition.