Sure the Tigers only scored 7 runs in their last 3 games, but when the White Sox only scored 3, the Tigers came away with the sweep. Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Cornejo followed up Wil Ledezma's debut with excellent starts of their own. Bonderman was in control the whole game, and always seemed to make a big pitch when he most needed it. What was most impressive was his ability to not get rattled by 3 errors (actually it was 2 errors and a piss-poor call). Another former young Tiger pitcher would have come unglued.

Today I got to witness in person, Nate Cornejo pitching 8 innings of shut out ball, allowing 7 hits and 2 walks against 2 K's. (as clarification, the post I made earlier about Cornejo did not include stats from this game) He was helped out by some nice defense (including his own) and 2 double plays. I also got to see Dmitri Young and Ramon Santiago look lost against Loaiza. Loaiza has made a lot of guys look foolish this year, but those two guys really seemed to struggle. But, in the end the Tigers beat Loaiza 1-0 for the second time this season.

Other Stuff: Danny Knobler reports that Bobby Higginson's bad hamstring has half the strength of his healthy one. Bobby indicated he won't return until he's 100%.

Knobler also reported that Chris Mears is the closer-for now. Quoting Trammell, "Right now, he is going to be the guy (in the ninth)," Trammell said. "The fact of the matter is, we're running a hot hand."

The crowd today was reported as 18,206 but actual attendance was much less (no surprise). In all fairness the weather forecast called for thunderstorms which could have hurt walk-ups and induced no-shows. The number was probably boosted by a large number of groups in attendance. Those in attendance were really into the game and gave Nate Cornejo a standing ovation for his performance at the end of the 8th. It was great to see the enthusiasm for the team. Let's hope the Tigers can build on this momentum against the BoSox.
posted by billfer at 10:17 PM|Link |

Much has been written about Nate Cornejo's "success" this season despite his unfathomably low strike out rate of 1.6 K/9 IP. Baseball Prospectus did a piece in early June (when Cornejo was really humming along with a sub 3.00 ERA). It showed that with runners on base, only 17% of balls in play resulted in hits. This was dramatic because the Tigers team was allowing hits on 27.1% of balls in play at the time. If you believe the theory that pitchers don't really effect the outcome of balls that are hit in play, then you believe Nate was incredibly lucky.

Since the article was written on June 1, Cornejo has had two good outings, and a bunch of bad ones. Looking at the rate at which balls in play become hits, it has risen dramatically.

Period	BIP	HIP	HIP/BIP
April & May	211	51	24%
June & July	148	59	40%
Season	359	110	31%

So what does this tell us? Basically that Nate was pretty lucky early in the season, and that he's been pretty unlucky as of late. Considering that for the season, the Tigers have allowed hits on 27.9% of balls in play, it looks like for the season Cornejo has actually been a little bit unlucky. Based on the team rate, you would expect Cornejo to have allowed 100 hits on the season. That's a difference of 10 hits over 17 games, or about .6 hits per game.

Because Cornejo's K rate is so low, along with a low walk rate and average home run rate, 86.5% of the batters he faces put the ball in play. The league average is 72.5%. Why is this important? Because so few of his outs are strike outs, Cornejo is very reliant on his defense to help him out. When he's "pitching unlucky" he's really getting burned. In June and July when Nate was "pitching unlucky" he gave up 59 hits. With the same unlucky defensive efficiency, a pitcher who allows balls in play at the average rate would have allowed 48 hits. Over those 7 games that's a 1.6 hit per game difference.

This also leads into a brief discussion of pitching efficiency. Bob Cluck's argument in favor of Nate's low strike rate is that Cornejo's pitching is more efficient than a traditional player. While in theory, Cornejo maybe able to get a given batter out with fewer pitches by inducing players to put the ball in play, he'll ultimately end up facing more batters as more reach base. Nate is averagig 3.53 pitches per plate appearance, and 15.4 pitches per inning. I don't know league averages for these stats, but they don't feel extremely efficient to me. And, it could be argued that any improvement over league averages could be attributable to Cornejo's lower than average walk rate.

I'm not sure if this answered any questions, but it was definitely interesting to do. I'd like to give a little plug to Twins Geek who inspired this analysis with a couple of articles (this one, and this one) that he did a couple weeks ago. Plus, it's a really great site.




posted by billfer at 8:34 AM|Link |

Wil Ledezma had a solid debut pitching 5 shut out innings. He only allowed 4 hits and no walks to go along with 4 strike-outs. Ledezma threw 72 pitches, and 47 of them for strikes. I was thrilled with the performance, and happy that Trammell kept his pitch count fairly low. His previous high for pitches was a 4 inning 58 pitch relief outing. Ledezma left with a 1-0 lead which Chris Spuling let disappear the in the 7th.

Speaking of Chris Spurling, he is in a serious funk. This was his 5th straight appearance where he allowed runs to score. After an impressive May where his stats were 14 G, 13.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 9K, 2BB, .275 OPP BA, he has become highly ineffective. Since May his stats are 15 G, 17.2 IP, 7.02 ERA, 6K, 2BB, .400 OPP BA. He's not really walking more guys, and I'm not sure why he's getting hit so hard. Because he is a Rule 5 guy, the Tigers can't send him to Toledo without risking losing him.

Deja Vu moment: When the Tigers played the White Sox on May 25th, Kevin Witt was due to come to the plate in the 8th with the bases loaded, nobody out, and facing a struggling left handed reliever (Kelly Wunsch). The same thing happened tonight, only the reliever was Marte instead of Wunsch. In both games Kevin Witt was 2 for 3. In both games Trammell pinch hit Craig Monroe for Kevin Witt, thus inviting Tom Gordon to enter the game. In both games Craig Monroe struck out. I complained about this last time, and I'll do it again. If you've got a pitcher on the ropes, don't give the other manager the opportunity to take him out, especially since the guy you're pinch hitting for had been having a good game. Back in May Munson managed to drive in a run with a sac fly, and Torres singled in another one with a bloop single. Tonight Munson followed with another strike out and the inning end when Ross grounded out. Bases loaded, no outs and no runs to show for it. While the Tigers got the win, that is exactly the type of thing that will often come back to haunt you.

But, let's not dwell on the negative and just enjoy the win.
posted by billfer at 10:34 PM|Link |

Baseball America - Triple-A Notebook-Cody Ross In all fairness he did cut his K-rate from 1 in 3 AB's to 1 in 10.
posted by billfer at 8:45 AM|Link |

-Don't look now, but the Dodger have only scored 7 more runs than the Tigers heading into Monday night's game (289 to 282, both in 86 games). Now an American League team threatening to move out of last in the Majors in runs scored shouldn't be news. However, Tiger fans have to grab at whatever bright spots they can find, and not being last in something is a definite step up.
-Cody Ross got the call last week when Bobby Higginson went on the 15 day DL. Both moves are probably overdue. Ross reached base after getting plunked in the heiny (tailbone-that's gotta hurt), and then needed a pinch runner.
-Tiger trade speculation is starting to swirl. Mike Maroth and Jamie Walker appear to be the most likely candidates to be on the move. Maroth looks to have the most value being a solid left handed starter. Add in the fact he's 25 and is making $300k and it is possible the Tigers could get a decent hitting prospect. Then again, as Tim D has commented on, the Tigers could have had a proven decent hitting 2nd basemen for even less and they passed (Jimenez). In all fairness to Dave D, it's possible he did make a play and the White Sox may have not wanted to trade him to a division foe (I don't know this happened, just giving the benefit of the doubt).
-With 3 errors this weekend at third base, Eric Munson is strengthening the "move him to catcher" argument. Unless the Tigers could somehow trade with Cincinnati and get Brandon Larson (doubtful) then you might as well keep Munson at third. Offensively he did have 3 walks and a homer on Sunday.
-Shane Halter started 6 of the last 9 games. My only question is, "Why?" Unless he's catching, he isn't an offensive upgrade at any position over the other options. Even in platoon situations, Halter's OPS is only .691 against lefties. Munson has a .693 OPS which is a wash, but Munson maybe part of the future for the Tigers, and Halter definitely isn't. At first base Pena has struggled against lefties (.551 OPS). However, the Tigers aren't looking for Pena to be a platoon option, and this year would be a nice chance for him to get used to seeing southpaws. Warren Morris has also struggled against lefties with a .551 OPS, but 17 AB isn't a large enough sample. Against left handed pitching he does have a 70 point OPS advantage of Santiago at short. So I guess that you could make the argument that Shane should get starts against lefties and play second or short. Unfortunately during this last stretch, only one of his starts fits that criteria (started for Morris against Hendrickson). Most of the starts came at the expense of Munson, and most were against righties. I guess I'll hold out hope they were "showcasing" him for a potential trade.
-Time to read some more of Moneyball and head to bed

posted by billfer at 10:42 PM|Link |

ESPN.com - Gammons: :
posted by billfer at 10:27 AM|Link |

Danny Knobler:
posted by billfer at 10:19 AM|Link |

Tanana says Bonderman will be better off for losing start to career
posted by billfer at 5:43 AM|Link |

Henning Says Deal Maroth:
posted by Russ Hadley at 12:54 PM|Link |

Catching up with the 62 Mets...and can the Tigers catch the 62 Mets?:
posted by billfer at 7:20 AM|Link |

You knew it had to happen at some point. Trammell indicated that later in the season he may go with a 6 man rotation to protect his 3 rookies

Other stuff In the 6th inning Bonderman intentionally walked Michael Tucker it ended a string of 34 innings without a walk...Dmitri Young (9 games) and Carlos Pena (7games) saw their hit streaks end last night...Opponents have stolen 11 bases in 13 attempts against AJ Hinch.

Have a fun and safe holdiay weekend!
posted by billfer at 6:07 AM|Link |

Jayson Stark's Rumblings
posted by billfer at 9:27 PM|Link |

I was hoping that I'd be able to link to a story about how Adam Bernero has been demoted from the starting rotation after another ineffective outing. Alas, no such article exists...yet. Bernero's ERA has climbed all the way to 6.05. He failed to go 4 innings for the second time in his last 4 starts, and hasn't had a quality start since June 11.

What's frustrating is that the Tigers have other options to take his spot. Wil Ledezma definitely comes to mind (although he didn't help his cause giving up a couple runs last night). Also, Shane Loux has pitched well for Toledo (8-4, 2.79 ERA). I don't know that Ledezma or Loux will be great starters, but given Bernero's recent performance the time has come to give either one a chance.

Miscellaney Gene Kingsale cleared waivers and accepted an assignment to Toledo... Anthony Giarratano and Jay Sborz both signed, leaving Kyle Sleeth as the only one of the top 5 picks not signed.
posted by billfer at 6:53 AM|Link |

Owner is mum, but Tigers' play does the talking
posted by billfer at 5:32 AM|Link |

Munson unlikely to play catcher
This discussion would have made sense before they had moved Eric to third base. He's done an admirable job of making the switch, and I think another position change at this point might ruin him. Although, I would have given this more serious consideration if Travis Chapman were still on the roster.
posted by billfer at 6:29 AM|Link |

From Jason Beck (MLB.com)
Really, there is very little tradeable value on the team. I heard one rumor that Houston was interested in Shane Halter, but I wouldn't see the Tigers getting much in return. I don't think any team would offer enough to get Dmitri Young away from the Tigers. First his salary is prohibitive. Second, if you take Dmitri off this team, you're going to have a hard time spending that $18 million that frees up next year because no one will come here. They'll have a tough enough time enticing free agents as it is.

The only other tradeable players are in the bullpen, and they are Jamie Walker and Steve Sparks. After Avery's first few outings, he looked like a possible trade candidate (veteran/lefty/cheap). Unfortunately he has struggled since and probably has no trade value.

Other than some Detroit-Toledo shuffling, I would be surprised to see the Tigers roster change until the September call-ups.


posted by billfer at 6:20 AM|Link |

At the half way point of the season, the Tigers are on pace to go 40-122. What's surprising is that the Tigers won their second game in a row against the Blue Jays. It's only the 4th time this season they've had a mulitple game win streak, and it will be thier first series win at home this year.

Matt Roney gave up 1 hit in 7 innings of shut out ball. Actually, the hit he did allow went off the glove of Shane Halter and may have been an error. In the end it was probably better that it was ruled a hit so that Tram wouldn't have had to pull Roney with a no-hitter on the line (he threw 96 pitches). It was a tremendous performance from Roney, who failed to go 4 innings in his first two starts. Granted, those starts were at Coors and Fenway, two places that aren't the pitcher friendly park that Comerica is. However, Comerica's spacious outfield wasn't really a factor because 12 of Roney's outs were ground balls (okay, so the long infield grass may have helped).

Offensively the Tigers deposited two home runs over the temporary fence in left. Those two homers came from Craig Monroe in the first, and shockingly Ramon Santiago. It was Santiago's first home run since June 19th, 2002. Santiago has reached base safely in all 5 games since assuming the starting shortstop role from Omar Infante. Trammell rewarded him by moving him up to the number two spot tonight.

Sidenote Welcome to all of you who are coming over from Baseball Musings. Thanks to Dave Pinto for the plug. His is a great site. Also, if you're looking for a Toronto Blue Jays blog, check out the Batter's Box.
posted by billfer at 9:58 PM|Link |

Alan Trammell said that when the weather warmed up, so would the bats. Unfortunately it was the opponents bats who got hot. The Tiger pitchers had a brutal month with a team ERA of 5.36, almost a run a game higher than they had coming into the month. Everybody thought that the Tiger pitching staff was a pleasant surprise so far. I hope this isn't a sign that they are returning to their "true" talent level. Nate Cornejo had a particularly rough month going 0-3 in 6 starts with a 6.96 ERA. (I'm working on some additional Nate Cornejo analysis that I should have in a week or so). Jeremy Bonderman on the other hand had a pretty strong month. He led Tiger pitchers in innings for the month. Don't worry, he's not being abused as pitch counts in his six starts were 92-81-91-90-91-106. He has a string of 5 consecutive quality starts and he hasn't allowed a walk in 27.2 innings. Not surprisingly, Tram shook up the rotation, inserting Matt Roney and demoting Gary Knotts.

Month	Record	Runs Per Game (AL Rank)	BA (rank)	OPS (rank)	BB (rank)	ERA (Rank)	OPP OPS	BB (rank)
April	3-20	2.35 (14)	.184 (14)	.520 (14)	69 (12)	4.82 (11)	.806 (11)	75 (4)
May	11-18	3.55 (T-13)	.242 (13)	.668 (13)	90 (T-3)	4.16 (5)	.695 (2)	103 (14)
June	5-22	3.52 (14)	.247 (13)	.617 (14)	66 (13)	5.36 (10)	.805 (11)	91 (11)

The offense put up very similar numbers in June as they did in May. This seems to indicate that this team is in fact a .245 hitting team, and not just hitting poorly for 3 months. The most disturbing drop-off is in walks. In May, the Tigers did a good job of drawing walks. In June, their walks dropped by a third. I don't know if this is because pitchers aren't the least bit afraid of the Tigers, or if it's because the Tiger hitters are pressing and swinging at more bad pitches. As far as individual performances go, Dmitri Young continues to swing well (.326/.414/.652) and will actually be a legitimate All-Star instead of just the token Tiger rep. Also, despite a recent slump, Eric Munson has hit .282/.313/.500 for the month (despite some shaky defense). Kevin Witt has filled in nicely for Carlos Pena hitting .289/.304/.434. Warren Morris has been a pleasant surprise and has added some offense to the number 2 slot. The rest of the team has still been bad. Especially bad has been Bobby Higginson. For the month he has hit Inge-like numbers of .156/.230/.195. That type of production isn't acceptable from a back-up catcher-let alone your corner outfielder/number 3 hitter.

June also marked the start of the Toledo-Detroit shuttle bus. Brandon Inge, Omar Infante, Franklyn German, Gary Knotts, and Gene Kingsale were all sent down this month. Andres Torres recently began his second tour of duty, and Ernie Young has already come and gone. It's hard to say what other moves we can expect in July. I would suspect that Steve Avery is close to making a Toledo return. Since his first couple outings, he's been hit hard. Also Adam Bernero is probably close to losing his spot in the rotation. The likely candidates to replace him are Wil Ledezma or Shane Loux.

Highlight of the MonthAfter taking the first two games against San Diego, the Tigers weren't the worst team in baseball. A distinction they held for all of 17 hours
Lowlight of the MonthPretty much everything since then.
posted by billfer at 6:33 AM|Link |

When the Tigers beat the Blue Jays last night, they not only snapped a nine game losing streak, they also broke a string of 7 straight losses to Toronto. Maroth pitched well, giving up 2 runs in 7 innings, and this time he had something to show for it. With the exception of a bloop induced jam in the 7th, it was the only time Maroth ran into trouble. Chris Mears came on and pitched 2 scoreless innings, with some nice defense from Pena and Torres.

Offensively, the Tigers dropped 3 bunts for hits, and Ramon Santiago reached base 3 times (twice on HBP's). The difference was the Tigers got hits with men on. Morris doubled in a run, Munson had a pinch hit single with the bases loaded, and AJ Hinch hit a two run homer.

For the second game in a row the Tigers went with Sanchez in center, and Torres in right. While Torres isn't great defensively, he can get to more balls than Sanchez can. I'm just not sure why Sanchez continues to play center. Regardless, the Tigers got number 19. Let's just hope that 20 comes soon.
posted by billfer at 6:32 AM|Link |