Keying in on the Keystone

David Pinto at Baseball Musings is continuing to publish the results of his Probabilistic Model of Range. He has churned out the positional data for shortstops and second basemen. Carlos Guillen looks decent, and Omar Infante doesn’t look too bad.


Guillen Infante
3597 2710
Act. Outs 490 305
Pred. Outs 496.37 319.00
Act. DER .136 .113
Pred. DER .138 .118

Among their peers, Guillen was in the top third (and substantially ahead of Edgar Renteria, the guy the Tigers were looking to sign and displace Guillen) while Infante was right about in the middle. The table was compiled only of players that had 1000 BIP.

Interestingly in Guillen’s case, he had the highest actual DER of all shortstops. Also, his predicted DER of .138 was among the highest so for some reason the balls hit to/near him were more fieldable than most other players. I’m hesitant to make the leap that the Tigers pitchers manage to induce a high amount of weakly hit balls (at least to shortstop), but I don’t have any other explanations either.

While Infante’s numbers don’t really do much for me, it was only his first season with significant playing time at second. He’s also young and probably still has room to grow where it comes to positioning and familiarity with opposing hitters.

Over the course of a full season I’m assuming 4400 BIP for short and 4000 BIP) the two combine to be 28 outs below their predicted range.

Over the course of a full season (assuming 4400 BIP as a full season) the two combine to be 31 outs below their predicted range

I’m curious to see what Pinto’s numbers will show for the Tigers’ 3rd base situation, but I’m not sure that Brandon Inge will have the 1000 BIP to qualify.

For more background on the PMR, check out David’s other posts here and here.

UPDATE: Pinto just posted the centerfield ratings and he has further validated his system: Alex Sanchez rannks near the bottom.

Other Stuff
-I did some updating over on the sidebar. Added are some new Detroit sports links, and I cleaned up some defunct sites. I also removed the section for the 2004 preview and anchored a couple of interesting/highlight type items. So far that includes my interview with Dombrowski and a table that has Tigers’ salaries for 2005 (so far).

-Ordonez watch: Apparently the Cubs are interested and Ordonez will work out for them in California. Will he actually work out or is Boras trying to force the Tigers hand? Or is Magglio just trying to get somebody else to offer up multiple years like the Tigers have done. Did Boras hold off on these workouts all along so that he could get maximum value for his other slugging outfielders (Drew and Beltran) by effectively shrinking the talent pool knowing that he could always get a desperate team to cough up big bucks and years on the eve of spring training? It’s stuff like this that hurts my head but it is par for the course with Scott Boras. The level of suspicion that surrounds any Boras negotiation is almost comical, but well earned.

Magg Wheels

With the Tigers interest in Magglio Ordonez, and the confusion over the status of his knee, I wanted to at least get a handle on the chronology of the injury. Below are excerpts from Baseball Prospectus’ Under the Knife report. UTK is written by Will Carroll who has turned himself into the source for baseball injury information.

May 20th

Willie Harris left Wednesday’s game after a collision with Magglio Ordonez. Ordonez also left the game. No report on either player at deadline


May 27th

Ordonez has a moderate strain of his left calf. The injury has been connected to his collision with Willie Harris last week, but it’s unclear if the injury is the result of the collision or a compensation injury after it. Ordonez isn’t a candidate for the DL at this point, but watch his power numbers; if they drop off, it might be a sign that he’s unable to block with his front leg.


June 3rd

I’m not sure if he’s really underrated or just underexposed, but either way he’s a heck of a ballplayer when healthy. Ordonez was sent for a second opinion from Dr. Lewis Yocum on Wednesday. The results must not have looked good since trainer Herm Schneider opened up the possibility of surgery. Ordonez is not yet on the DL, but a retro move is likely. The White Sox had been very patient, hoping that Ordonez could avoid the List, but even if he can avoid surgery he’s going to need the recovery time.

June 4th

Oh…Magglio Ordonez. That’s a different story. He’s the best player on a division-leading team, so news that he’s likely to head under the knife is never a good thing. Ordonez has a significant problem that instead of being his calf is now being reported as a meniscal tear. This would make the pain in his calf something radiating from an entrapped nerve, called “referred pain.” This type of pain is often extremely difficult to diagnose and would certainly explain the confusion of the last few days. If surgery is called for, Ordonez would have it immediately on Friday with team doctors. The rehab would likely take four-to-six weeks, but an All-Star break return looks possible.

June 28th

Ordonez is a few weeks away from returning after knee surgery, but it’s a predictable return.

July 8th

The good news for the Sox is that they will soon get their best player back on the field. Magglio Ordonez will take a quick, low-minor rehab assignment during the ASB and is expected back when the team begins playing again.

July 26th

Bone marrow edema isn’t a diagnosis heard every day. In baseball, it’s now a singular event, afflicting Magglio Ordonez, who just returned from knee surgery. Also called “transient osteoporosis,” the edema is not just a short-term problem for the Sox’ outfielder, it’s also bad in the long-term; BME is a predictor of serious arthritis, gait imbalances, and increased risk for fractures near the affected bones. It’s not good for the White Sox, for Ordonez, or Ordonez’s agent, but it’s not life-threatening, as some have feared. It could be managed in a way that could allow Ordonez back on the field, but as there is nothing with which to compare this, I have no way of putting a timeline on it.

September 23rd

It’s hard to tell what is medical fact and what is negotiation tactic in the case of Magglio Ordonez. The complicating factor of impending free agency gives both parties–player/agent and team–reason to present their spin rather than the facts. Worse, Ordonez’s condition is one that has not only not been seen in baseball, the doctors and trainers with whom I’ve spoken haven’t seen it in sports. So, we’re dealing with an unknown but potentially serious condition, a rehabbing knee that is months behind schedule, and contentious salary negotiations in their last weeks. In other words, absent a miracle, even my best sources really don’t know what the future holds for Ordonez. This is a classic “buyer beware” situation with upside.

September 24

The he-said/he-said continued between Magglio Ordonez and White Sox GM Ken Williams. As I stated yesterday, we’re dealing with a contentious negotiation, a GM who many have speculated is on the hot seat, and a player dealing with an injury that has not been seen in baseball. Everything must be taken in context, though there is little to give us that needed context. Ordonez asserts that he is healthy, but until he hits the field at some point and demonstrates this, we simply cannot know. Ordonez’s comments must give some optimistic spin to what we know; again, we just don’t have enough information. I hope to have more substantial information on this early next week.

October 19th

Sources with medical knowledge of the Magglio Ordonez situation tell me that Ordonez’s knee is neither as bad nor as good as current news would have you believe. The problem was finally given a solid diagnosis, which includes a second meniscal tear and a reason for the bone edema, giving him a good treatment plan. Ordonez won’t be 100% in December as suggested, though there’s reason to believe that he could be ready for spring training without restriction


November 16th

Your guess is as good as mine. Assurances from agents don’t comfort me much, so until I see Ordonez run, I’ll treat him as injured. This is the ultimate risk for a team: a Scott Boras client with an injury that hasn’t been seen in professional sports. Healthy, he’s an elite level player. I think a bold GM will be rewarded by signing Ordonez.


December 2nd

Knee surgery led to a bone marrow edema, an injury not often seen, let alone seen in baseball players. A second surgery, performed in Austria, has reportedly cleared up the problem. Knee surgery is nearly routine now, so any complication such as the edema is rare. Ordonez was unable to return and now faces questions about his ability to return to his previous performance level. That makes teams reluctant to sign big checks.
Ordonez is reported to have a workout planned for teams during the winter meetings. If he can perform normal baseball activities, there’s little reason to believe he won’t return to his previous levels. Even if he’s not fully healed now, he still has months to go before he needs to be on the field. Add in that Ordonez was not a speed player or rangy outfielder prior to the injury, and the effect is minimal. While knee injuries do have a tendency to recur and need occasional maintenance, there’s no reason to believe that, even if surgery became necessary, the edema or other complications would arise again. A team would be smart to get Ordonez in a room prior to the workouts; if he can walk normally now, sign him. Sometimes you don’t need all the information, just enough to make an informed decision.


December 9th

His knee injuries have been documented both here and elsewhere. About all we don’t know is how he is. A planned workout by Ordonez in Anaheim has been scrapped because Scott Boras feels he’s close enough to a deal that the workout is unnecessary. Enough people have seen the medical records that some team is likely to try to make a move. This is a deal that could well happen this weekend.

January 24th

After a winter of signal silence, facts are finally starting to come out about Magglio Ordonez’s health status. Ordonez had a second knee surgery in Austria, but only secondary to sound-wave treatments on his damaged knee. While the surgery was routine, the sound-wave therapy is controversial. The treatment, similar to those used on kidney stones and plantar fasciitis, is not approved for use in the U.S. Despite reports that his Austrian physician has signed off on Ordonez to return to activity, he has still not yet worked out for any team. I remain hopeful, but he’s a sure red-flag type until he demonstrates he’s healthy.

In summary, it started with a collision. Leg pain prompted further examination where a meniscus tear was identified. Ordonez underwent surgery in June to correct the problem. Typically rehab for this type of procedure is 4 to 6 weeks. All reports are in agreement up to this point.

Various reports indicate that the bone marrow edema was a side effect of the surgery. On 1270AM Scott Boras stated that the edema was the result of Ordonez’s aggressive rehab schedule compounded by the fact that there was another undetected meniscus tear. Boras went onto explain that Ordonez traveled to Austria to see Wolfgang Schaden, and that Schaden repaired the meniscus (Boras equated it to going to the dentist). Boras then said that the edema resolved itself.

Other reports by people who aren’t Ordonez’s agent say that while there was another tear, the reason for the trip was to receive the controversial shock treatment for the edema.

I wish I could tell you more about what the prospects are for a player with bone marrow edema. Unfortunately as Carroll documented there is nobody to compare him to. Studies at Johns Hopkins have indicated that BME is a predictor for osteoarthritis. Other than that I can’t tell you a whole lot.

Ordonez…tempering expectations

While I took a look at Ordonez back in December, with the Tigers recent interest in him, I decided to take a second look. At the time, I thought he’d be a decent gamble if the Tigers could work out a fair deal and protect themselves in the event the knee becomes a chronic problem. However, after a closer look I think the knee might not be the biggest cause for concern.

There is no denying that Ordonez has been a great hitter thus far in his career, and until this past season he has been healthy. He’s a perennial .300 hitter, 30 homer, 100 RBI guy. This career OPS+ is certainly impressive. However, it is important to remember the park that Ordonez has done most of his damage. US Cellular is the easiest park in the majors to hit home runs in. Using park factors from Bill James 2005 Handbook, from 2002-2004 it was 31% easier to hit home runs in US Cellular than a typical park. During that same span Ordonez has hit 60% of his homers in his home park, and his OPS is 83 points higher at home.

Now transfer that production over to Comerica park. A place where it is 14% harder to hit homers than your typical park. It just wouldn’t be realistic to expect Ordonez to meet his career production.

The other factor is that Ordonez is past his peak seasons. I’m not saying that he is past the point of producing, but a dropoff due to age wouldn’t be out of the ordinary.

For fun, I went to Baseball Reference and took advantage of their similarity scores. I looked at the 10 most similar players to Ordonez through age 29. (I used 29 instead of 30 because last season wasn’t really representative of his production). I then looked at how those same players did from age 31 on. I’ve consolidated the information into the table below:
Comp Table

Of the 6 comp players who have retired, they average out to 4 years and an OPS+ of 104. Dave Parker went on to play 10 more years, but aside from a sensational season at age 34 (148 OPS+) he was basically an above average player. Tim Salmon has continued to be productive, albeit inconsistently. Raul Mondesi is well, Raul Mondesi. This doesn’t mean that Ordonez will follow the same path, but it does paint a discouraging picture.

In all fairness, if you take a look at the comps for the most similar players through age 30, things look better for Ordonez. A handful of the players change, and among those that have retired they average 6 years and an OPS+ of 112. Larry Walker also gets added to the list, and he would definitely boost the average production of the group.

I’m not against signing Ordonez. However, given the fact that Boras asking price (thanks to MotownSports for the link)seems to be based on a level of production built in a very hitter friendly park it seems that he will be too expensive. It sounds like he is looking in the neighborhood of $50 million. Given Dombrowski’s reluctance to hurt the team with ridiculous contracts I’d be surprised if Dombrowski would sign him at that price. This is especially true because they won’t be able to insure him given his knee complications.

Odds are…Tigers defense is poor

I wasn’t planning on writing about the Tigers’ poor defense, but then David Pinto published his Probabalistic Model of Range for 2004. I love fresh stats, and this will dovetail nicely with the defense independent discussion from last week.

Pinto’s stats are compiled by looking at play by play data and measuring how likely it is that given ball will be turned into an out. He looks at the direction the ball was hit, the type of hit (grounder, flyball, linedrive, bunt), how hard it was hit, the park, and the handedness of the hitter and pitcher. Pinto’s method is very similar to Mitchel Lichtman’s Ultimate Zone Rating which I used extensively in my defensive preview last year. Lichtman went an additional step and expressed a player’s defensive contribution in terms of runs. Unfortunately for us (fortunately for Lichtman) he’s working for the Cardinals now and won’t be publishing his results.

The Probalistic Model shows the following totals for the Tigers

Balls-in-play: 4524
Acutal Outs: 3091
Defensive Efficiency: .683
Predicted Outs: 3169.2
Predicted DER: .701

The gap between the Tigers actual DER and predicted DER was the 4th worst in the majors. The result is that the Tigers missed out on converting 78 balls-in-play into outs. The pitchers are the real losers in this because innings get extended, run likelihood increases, and so does workload. And it’s not just a matter of pitchers having to face an additional 78 hitters. Considering that 64.9% of the batters against reached base (this includes the non balls in play as well), that means that Tigers pitchers faced an additional 120 batters over the course of the season.

Now hopefully I didn’t just mess up all those calculations and I don’t look like an idiot. Regardless, this just helps to support the commonly held belief that the Tigers defense is below average. The mainstream media typically point to errors and fielding percentage which are horrible measures of defense, but the Tigers were so far behind the rest of the league in those stats they still illustrate the point. It also meshes nicely with Jaffe’s dERA calculations which show that as a team the Tigers allowed 30 more runs than would be expected.

Here are some other defense related Tiger stats:
From the Hardball Times Baseball Annual:
-The Tigers line drive allowed percentage is 17.5% against a league average of 18.2%. This is signifcant because line drives are the type of ball in play most likely to turn into a hit.
-The Tigers groundball/flyball ratio is 1.25 against a league average of 1.15.
-The Tigers had 144 errors last year and 48.5% were throwing errors. The league average is 46.5% of errors are throwing errors.
-From a catching standpoint, the Tigers caught stealing rate was 37% against a league average of 32%. Pudge however only threw out 29% of runners while Brandon Inge threw out 38%. However Pudge’s reputation kept runners from trying to steal on him. With Pudge behind the plate runners tried to steal only .48 times per game. With Inge behind the plate they were trying 1.38 times per game.

Other Stuff
-Happy 4th Birthday to Tigers Central. Ryan and his crew do a great job over there.
-I received a bunch of emails from different website operators who want me to link to them. I’ve read your emails, I just haven’t had a chance to incorporate your links yet.

Dean Palmer among Non Roster Invitees

The Tigers have invited 19 players to spring training this year and it’s an interesting mix of guys trying to stick with a major league team, prospects, and some familiar faces. Most surprising among those is Dean Palmer who retired last year. Another familiar face is Mike Rivera who came up through the Tigers organization and was traded to San Diego.

The list of prospects invited includes Tony Giarratano, Mike Rabelo, Maxim St. Pierre, and Jack Hannahan. (I know that in the case of some of these guys I’m using the term prospect loosely)

Other invitees include: Nelson Cruz, Craig Dingman, Sean Douglass, John Ennis, Andrew Good, Matt Roney, Mike Bynum, Doug Creek, Brandon Harper, Sandy Martinez, and Kevin Hooper.

The most conspicuous absensce maybe that of Kyle Sleeth, the top pick in 2003.

Tiger DiPS

Jay Jaffe at Futility Infielder has compiled and published Defense Independent Pitching stats for 2004. As I always do when I see fresh stats, I scroll to find out if there is anything interesting to be learned about Tiger players. Fortunately for Tiger fans, there is some good news in here. But first, a little DiPS background.

For those that haven’t heard about Defense Independent Pitching it is an idea promoted/discovered by Voros McCracken. The theory is that pitchers do not differ significantly in their ability to prevent hits on balls in play. DiPS is a way of looking at the things that a pitcher can control without the help of defense (strikeouts, walks, homers, hit batsmen) and combining it with league averages for balls in play to see what a pitcher’s stats would look like with typical “luck” and a typical defense behind him. It is also adjusted for park effects. The resulting calculated ERA (noted as DiPS or FIP, or dERA) has been shown to correlate better with the subsequent season’s ERA, than using the traditional ERA. This is just a very quick explanation. For more detail be sure to read Jaffe’s article that accompanies the stats.

As for how this applies to the Tigers, the following table has the defense independent stats for the Tigers’ starters last year. Defense independent ERA is dERA. Earned runs above replacement is a measure of how many runs better than a replacement level pitcher the pitcher was last year. The d-E column is a measure of how the DiPS stats compare to the actual ERA. A negative number indicates that the pitcher was hurt by some combination of bad luck or bad defense.
table

Most surprising on this list is Jason Johnson, who was widely regarded as the Tigers’ weakest starter last year (despite a handful of very impressive performances). Johnson was among the league leaders in misfortune last year with an actual ERA three quarters of a run higher than his dERA. With a league average dERA of 4.63, it actually makes Johnson an above average pitcher. One pitcher who had even more bad luck was Derek Lowe who’s dERA was a full run lower than his actual ERA. His dERA of 4.40 is almost identical to Johnson’s. Fortunately, it will cost us $4 million for one more year for Johnson’s services as opposed to $36 million over 4 years for Lowe’s.

Jeremy Bonderman’s dERA of 4.37 is a big improvement over last year’s 4.81. At the age of 22 it is another indication that this guy maybe on the road to stardom.

Mike Maroth’s dERA is .44 worse than his actual ERA. However, he still showed great improvement last year as his 2003 dERA was 5.54.

By dERA Nate Robertson was a slightly below average pitcher last year. It was only his first full year in the rotation however. He struckout plenty of guys, but was hurt by home runs and some fatigue down the stretch.

So the good news is that while the Tigers didn’t have a dominant starter last year, the guys 1-4 were all average to above average. Also, all the Tigers starters showed improvement over the previous year. The bad news is that the Tigers pitching staff was victimized by poor defense. In looking at dER’s and actual ER’s there is a gap of 30 runs. Unfortunately the Tigers weren’t able to significantly bolster their defense this offseason.

Central Park Factors

A couple posts ago I looked at an article that Rob Neyer wrote about how Derek Lowe may be a good fit for Dodger Stadium. I then made the comment that he wouldn’t be a good fit for the Tigers because Comerica yielded few homers and lots of other extra base hits. Of course I made that comment based completely on subjective gut opinion.

I decided to take a closer look at how Comerica park actually played last year. It turns out that Comerica, while it did yield more triples than any other park, was actually the second hardest place in the majors to get a double. I don’t have a clue as to why this is. It may be that some of the doubles turn into triples because of the depth of centerfield. It may be that because the outfield is so spacious the outfielders play deeper an will concede some singles to reduce doubles. I’m not sure what the cause is, but it is interesting nonetheless.

I took it a step further and decided to look at how all 5 parks in the AL Central play. This is relevant because the Tigers will play about 70% of their games between Comerica, US Cellular, the Metrodome, Kauffman, and the Jake. Based on ESPN’s park factor statistics, I compiled the following table of how each stadium ranks for each type of event:

If ever there was a division for a fly ball, home run prone pitcher to have success in (or hide), it would be the Central. With the exception of the launching pad that is Chicago’s US Cellular Field, the other stadiums all rank in the bottom third of the majors in homers allowed.

While from a runs perspective the Metrodome is a hitters park, it isn’t a slugger’s paradise. Across the board it doesn’t yield a lot of extra base hits. I’m guessing that the Metrodome allows more turf fueled singles than its counterparts.

The Jake is a tough place to find a hit, unless it’s doubles you’re looking for. For some reason it is also one of the top places to get a walk. Kauffman meanwhile, has a similar, though less dramatic effect, as Comerica when it comes to extra base hits.

This homerun suppression across the division (of course Chicago is the exception) may be another reason that players are staying away from the Central. It is also a reason to be cautious when pursuing Magglio Ordonez who, while still a very good hitter, has probably benefitted from his home park.

Other Stuff
-To make room for Vance Wilson on the 40 man roster, the Tigers DFA’d Alexis Gomez last week. Today he was outrighted to Toledo. He will be invited to spring training as a non-roster invitee.
-When I’ve covered Tigers’ roster composition in the past, I’ve mentioned that they only have 3 players signed beyond next year. That’s almost correct. Dmitri Young has two option years remaining. The option in 2006 is for $8.5 million, and 2007 is $7 million. I’m not sure about the type of the option for the second year, but the 2006 option is based on playing time in 2005. Unfortunately I don’t know what the game or plate appearance threshold is for that to kick in.

My interview with Dave Dombrowski

Tigers President/CEO/General Manager David Dombrowski was kind enough to do an interview with DTW. The discussion touched on trends from the off-season, player development, and a look forward to the 2005 season. The theme throughout is that if the Tigers are going to have success, the improvement will have to come from within the organization.

Despite the Tigers and other AL Central teams trying to acquire free agents this offseason, once again most of those players migrated to the coasts. New York and Boston can offer players more money and the chance to play for a winning team. The west coast can offer players a great place to live, and in some cases a truck load of money (LA, Seattle, and somehow Arizona). The Central can offer a colder climate and much less money. Dombrowski recognizes this, “For the clubs [in the Central division] from a financial perspective it’s hard to compete for players with the upper echelon clubs because the dollars just aren’t there. You have to practice some fiscal responsibility. To be successful you’ll have to have successful farm systems. Minnesota has had success with their farm system. Cleveland is starting to have success as well. There may be occasional situations when people come to your city, but you have to develop players.”

Unfortunately for the Tigers, they have had difficulty producing talent from the farm system for more than a decade. While Tigers fans might not see money being invested in marquee free agents this year, there is an investment going towards improving the Tigers’ talent base. The Tigers hired David Chadd from Boston to become their new scouting director, and James Orr as Assistant Scouting Director. They have also increased their presence in Latin America. The Tigers have tried to “be more aggressive in signing players,” said Dombrowski who mentioned prospect Wilken Ramirez as an example. The Tigers also have improved facilities to work with in the Dominican Republic. They are now leasing Luis Rijo’s baseball facility which is a “much nicer place to bring players to and train them,” according to Dombrowski.

For Tigers fans that are tired of watching losing baseball, the investment in the minors may be of little consolation. To that end the Tigers did pursue free agents this year, but they didn’t get in all out bidding wars and avoided contracts that may be regrettable (i.e. Juan Gonzalez who was offered an 8 year contract by the Tigers is looking to sign a minor league deal now). The Tigers are in a “very solid position going forward,” Dombrowski said. The Tigers only have 3 players under contract beyond this season (Guillen, Percival, Rodriguez). What’s more, is that the Tigers young core of Infante, Bonderman, Maroth, Robertson, Ledezma, and others will still be at least 2 years away from free agency.

When asked if he felt additional pressure to build off the momentum of last season’s improvement, and capitalize on the increased revenue with the All Star game Dombrowski replied, “No, I don?t feel any additional pressure. I don’t think this year makes it different than any other year. You always want to put the best team out there. We’ve had some good things happen. What will continue the interest in the club is the club’s continued improvement.” Dombrowski believes that the club will continue to improve through the improvement of the young players. The thinking is that if the veterans can make their core contributions (performances typical of their career), the resulting improvement will come from the continued growth of the young players.

Two players who are looking to join that young core, Chris Spurling and Fernando Rodney, both underwent arm surgeries. Dombrowski said that both are progressing well. Spurling was throwing during the instructional league and Rodney is right on track. Alex Sanchez who missed the second half of the year with a hamstring injury is fully recovered.

As for Dombrowski’s takes on the off-season:
On the length and price of contracts and how if insuring contracts is still an issue:
“The insurability hasn’t changed. It is still out there. It may be that more clubs are willing to take the risk.”

On why more clubs haven’t worked out contracts similar to Pudge’s that have an out clause for specific injuries:
“Without getting into all of the details, it was a rather unique situation in Pudge’s case. A lot of things would have to fall into place.”

On the surge in big, long term contracts:
“Every year the off-season seems to take its own direction. You’re never sure what to anticipate. The industry had a healthy year last year. Also, a lot of contracts came off the books this year. It surprised me to the extent that the dollars and length went up.”

I’d like to thank Mr. Dombrowski for taking the time to talk with me. As someone who has watched this team closely for a long time, it is great to see members of the organization take such an interest in their fans. Keep in mind that this is a “fan site.” While I try to post news and insightful commentary (big emphasis on “try”) I’m by no means a journalist. Mr. Dombrowski had no obligation to spend time talking to me, and I wouldn’t have been the least bit offended if he declined my request.

Seth speaks about…Me, and some more Derek Lowe

Seth Stohs of Seth Speaks fame was really having a hard time thinking of something to write about, so he interviewed me. I’ve considered doing a little “about the author” thing so you could get to know me better. Seth was kind enough to take care of that for me, and in probably a much more structured way than I would have. So if you want to know more about me go read Seth’s post, and really Seth does a great job all the time so you should consider reading him regularly.

Derek Lowe
I’ve done enough railing against Derek Lowe. However, Rob Neyer wrote a pretty interesting piece about the Derek Lowe signing, and why Paul DePodesta may have done it. It’s an Insider article, so I’ll just give you the jist. Neyer points out that Lowe’s peripherals didn’t really change much from 2003 to 2004 so you would expect his performance to be similar both years. However, his BABIP jumped up tremendously in 2004 which in large part could be attributed to luck, (or bad luck). So 2004 probably isn’t indicative of his true talent level, and it’s probably closer to his performance in 2003 when he was a pretty good pitcher.

The other part of the article is why Lowe is a good fit for the Dogers, and Dodger stadium. Dodger stadium is widely considered a pitchers park. The reason for this is that it seems to eliminate doubles and triples. However, it is a pretty easy place to hit a home run. Derek Lowe’s strength, aside from being an extreme ground ball pitcher, is limiting home runs. Voila, a perfect fit.

Comerica park seems to have the opposite effect. It suppresses home runs, but is a great doubles and triples park so Lowe probably wouldn’t be as valuable to the Tigers as he is to the Dodgers. In any case, it is a great look at the power of park effects.

Tigers Sign Carlos….Pena

The Tigers signed a Scott Boras client named Carlos today. They agreed to a one year deal with Pena. I don’t have the terms yet, but I’ll update when I do. This means that the Tigers have inked their 3 arbitration eligible players (Inge and Sanchez were the others) to one year deals.

UPDATE The contract is 2.575 million with a 25k bonus for 625 plate apperances.

Pena showed some life after the All Star break last year hitting 250/362/513. While he struck out a whole bunch, he did improve his plate awareness garnering a walk every 8 plate appearances. Offensively last year he was an about average first baseman, so $2.6 million shouldn’t be too bad heading into his age 27 season.

UPDATE 2 With the signings of Martinez, Pena, and Wilson the Tigers have 15 players under contract for next year. I couldn’t find Wilson’s contract, but he made $720,000 last year. The Tigers payroll for the 15 players under contract is $56 million. The other 10 players who will be on the big league roster (barring trades of course) are all “renewable.” The total cost of those 10 will be about $4 million (give or take a half million). That puts the payroll for the big league roster right at $60 million as it currently stands.

Around the Internet

I’m lazy today, so I’ll just send you guys to some interesting stuff I’ve seen lately:

Baseball America Scouts vs. Stats: Allan Schwarz leads a roundtable discussion with Voros McCracken (Mr. DiPS and Red Sox consultant), Gary Huckabay (BP writer and A’s consultant), Gary Hughes (Cubs Assistant GM), and Eddie Bane (Angels Scouting Director) about evaluation techniques.

Brian and the Nationals. Brian makes his second apperance at the Hardball Times detailing how an Expo becomes a National. Also, check out his comparison of Ryne Sandberg and Lou Whitaker at Tigerblog. Whitaker was always my favorite player, so I of course think he should be a HoF’er. However, knowing my bias I try to be reserved about Whitaker so it’s nice to see other people sharing my feelings.

The Oakland Press doesn’t have the readership of the News and the Freep, but for Tigers coverage maybe it should. Crystal Evola has had a pretty good week covering the Tigs. On Wednesday, Crystal had the quotes of Dombrowski saying that the Tigers weren’t pursuing Beltran. The Free Press, News, and sports talk radio didn’t pick it up until yesterday. Then today, she was the only source to include Dombrowski’s comments on Anderson Hernandez.

“We think he has a chance to play at the big league level,” Dombrowski said of Hernandez. “He should play at the big league level, but it’s a situation where you have to give something up to get something, and we feel we have depth in the middle infield at the big league level.”

-Another Hardball Times article from last week took a look at one out guys. While Trammell received lots of criticism for bullpen utilization, his use of pitchers to come in and face only guy was pretty successful. The Tigers brought in pitchers 33 times last year to face only one batter. Those 33 batters faced resulted in 32 outs. If you wanted to know who was best at this, check out Steve Colyer who was called on 11 times to face one batter, and came away with 11 outs.

Tigers Acquire Wilson

The Tigers made a trade today to acquire a backup catcher. They traded minor league shortstop Anderson Hernandez for Mets backup catcher Vance Wilson. Wilson is a solid player who hit 274/335/427 last year in 79 games. Wilson is also a solid defender.

Hernandez will be 22 and played shortstop for Erie last season. Throughout his minor league career, he has hit for a decent average but with very little power. Baseball America ranked Hernandez as the Tigers best infield defender and their best infield arm.

This pretty much signals that Inge won’t be catching for the Tigers again. Either the plan is for him to be the starting third baseman for awhile, or they plan to trade him. Also, it may speak highly of Tony Giarrtano’s progress. Giarrtano will most likely take Hernandez’s place at Erie next season.

The Tigers filled a need at an affordable price.

With this move, the position players on the big league roster have been identified. If the Tigers carry 12 pitchers, the position players will be:

Ivan Rodriguez
Vance Wilson

Carlos Pena
Omar Infante
Carlos Guillen
Brandon Inge
Ramon Martinez
Jason Smith

Rondell White
Alex Sanchez
Bobby Higginson
Craig Monroe
Dmitri Young

Barring injuries or trades, I don’t really see this changing. I would say that Sanchez’s spot on the roster is the most tenuous. If Granderson performs very well in spring training there is a chance he may beat out Sanchez. This also doesn’t bode well for Nook Logan to stay with the big club (at least initially).