Various items of interest to Tiger fans…

• John Sickels always interesting and informative Minor League Ball has a prospect retrospective on the resurgent Carlos Pena. Given the way things have turned out, it is easy to forget that he was the centerpiece of the Jeff Weaver trade.
  Promoted to Double-A Tulsa in 2000, he broke out with an excellent .299/.414/.533 season, 28 homers, 101 walks, 108 strikeouts in 529 at-bats. He improved his walk rate, cut his strikeouts, and was an all-around devastating hitter. I gave him the rare and coveted pure Grade A rating, and rated him as the Number Seven prospect in baseball.

  Incidentally, if you ask Mrs. Billfer “Who’s your Tiger?” she will enthusiastically answer “Carlos Pena – he rocks”

• Speaking of the minors, Baseball America lists the rosters for the Arizona Fall League. The Tigers are set to be represented by Preston Larrison, Adam Peterson, Humberto Sanchez, Tony Giarratano, Don Kelly, and Curtis Granderson. However, Danny Knobler reports that Granderson will be headed to the Domican Winter League instead.
• The Toledo Mud Hens clinched a playoff spot tonight with a 10-2 victory over Louisville. Zach Miner pitched six innings and gave up both runs along with 4 walks, 4 hits, and 4 strikeouts. Marcus Thames homered.
• While Miner was effective for Toledo, the other pitcher acquired in the Farnsworth trade, Roman Colon had a very strong outing in relief for Detroit. In 3 1/3 innings he allowed 3 hits and no walks while striking out 5. Considering that he went longer than starter Sean Douglass, it maybe time to give Colon a shot in the rotation.
• Colon was available to pitch tonight because it appears that Jeremy Bonderman will not miss his turn on Monday. Apparently the wrist is doing well. I just hope that he is healthy enough that he doesn’t alter his delivery to compensate for pain in his wrist. I wouldn’t want to see him open himself up to an injury.
• And finally, Alan Trammell who going into Saturday night’s game had never won in Fenway as a manager. Tonight he took one for the team and got himself tossed. I tried looking to see if there is a “manager of record” or if manager wins is even an official stat. I couldn’t find anything, so I don’t know if Trammell or Gibson would get credit for the win. Interestingly enough, Gibby was given the reigns after Trammell was tossed. Wouldn’t that normally go to bench coach Bruce Fields?

If you’re interested, I have a piece about Craig Monroe’s RBI total over at Motown Sports.

Also, while the Tigers lost tonight it was a heck of an effort. After two rough games to close out the homestand, they went into Boston and played the World Champs very tough. Of course I’d have rather had the win, but the team played well. Most troubling is the pitching’s inability to prevent runs. At least the bullpen was solid tonight, and for the second time this season Jason Johnson struck out a hitter and it resulted in a run.

Last night I was excited. I was going to a Tiger game for the first time in a month. The team was riding a 5 game win streak with their ace taking the mound, and it was a beautiful night. And then the game started.

Jeremy Bonderman wasn’t ace like, and the Tigers offense sputtered. The baserunners they did get were cut down with double plays while Oakland just kept hitting the ball out of the park.

Then there was that horribly loud “thwack” sound that emanated from Bonderman’s forearm as it was struck by a line drive. After hearing it, and watching Bonderman writhe in pain I couldn’t help but see the next several seasons flash before my eyes. As a Tiger fan, Jeremy Bonderman may be the singular most important ray of hope the organization has seen in a dozen years. Which is why it is understandable that I actually felt a little ill.

Fortunately, the early read of the x-ray is that it is only a bruise. I’m guessing that internist Michael Workings did the initial read at the stadium. Hopefully it will remain negative after a radiologist reads it today, and a subsequent MRI.

The Tigers played a stinker last night. It happens, and is easier to stomach when it happens amidst a string of pretty good baseball. The real test will be to see how the team plays in its next several games. Is the hot streak over, or was this just a bump in the road?

Other notes and thoughts from the game:

• An umpire problem that occurred at the same time as Bonderman’s injury caused an excruciatingly long delay. The delay was made more frustrating by a complete lack of updates in the stadium as to the nature of the delay, and no activity other than players warming up. An announcement would have been nice, as would utilizing the big fancy scoreboard to show something.
• Curtis Granderson’s homer saving catch looked pretty spectacular from our seats. I’m glad to see him getting regular playing time.
• Speaking of playing time, it is basically impossible now to keep Carlos Pena out of the starting lineup. I didn’t want to see Shelton lose at-bats, but Pena has provided all the scoring the last two nights. Last night’s homer was majestic to say the least.
• Finally, while not a game note, this is fairly significant. Rondell White will undergo surgery to fix his rotator cuff and end his season. According to John Lowe, Mike Illitch called Rondell to say that he wanted White back next year. Now I’m a big White fan, and I love what he’s done for and with the Tigers. But I just don’t see how from a roster perspective this will work out. It may mean that the Tigers are looking to move Craig Monroe. It may mean that the Tigers will rely on Brandon Inge and Chris Shelton to handle back up catcher duties.

  In any case it was a classy thing for Illitch to do for a classy player. It was also the second time that Illitch has gotten involved with the team this week.

The Tigers are confusing me right now, and I just don’t know what to make of what’s happening.

First, there is the whole Carlos Pena thing. As Jeff asked, what is going on here? My guess is this is simply a hot streak. Of course he won’t hit multiple home runs every game, just like he wasn’t going to continue to be the .180 hitter he was when he was demoted. What’s most frustrating is that this is another glimpse at just how good Pena can be. The trouble is that all these glimpses seem to come in August.

Now I don’t subscribe to the theory that, “he only does it when it doesn’t mean anything.” Because at least for Pena, it does mean something. He’s essentially in a “walk year” so he is playing minimally for his next contract. Not to mention the guy is trying to earn playing time. He has pressure on him.

Now a couple days ago I said there was no way that he would be with the Tiger next year given his contract status. With all of one more game under his belt, I’m starting to question that a little bit. What if Pena really has figured something out? What if his time in Toledo has helped him the way that Inge’s demotion in 2003 helped Brandon? Could the Tigers end up regretting this move the way Minnesota regrets non-tendering David Ortiz? A one year deal for $2 million might be a gamble, but it wouldn’t be crippling to the organization. The question is whether or not you want to pay that much for a left handed bat off the bench/spot starter because I don’t want to see ABs taken away from Chris Shelton. I’m still on the side of letting him walk, but I’m willing to consider the other options.

In any case, Pena has been a big part of the 3 games he’s started so far, and regardless of what happens next year he’s helping the team win now. (without compromising Shelton’s playing time)

The other thing confusing me is the Cameron Maybin situation. John Lowe is reporting that under the direction of Mike Illitch the Tigers have pulled not only their $3.2 million offer, but the previous offer of $2.75 million as well.

While classes have started at Southern, it isn’t too late for Maybin to enroll so he still has some leverage – but why turn down that much money? Of course I’m not in the negotiations and everything is speculation, but I have to believe that the kid is getting some very bad advice. I understand wanting more money than what is slotted given the circumstances, but the Tigers came through with a suitable offer. Now his advisors appear to have lost out on three-quarters of a million of guaranteed money as well. I still believe a deal will get done, it’s just too bad that Maybin lost out on a year of development in the process.

Another great week for the Tigers, just when things looked there darkest. This team has a way of bouncing back when it seems like they are going in the tank. Here’s hoping they keep it going…

• With their recent string of one run wins, the Tigers have improved their record to 32-30 in games decided by less than two runs. In one run games, their record now stands at 18-20.
• I don’t know if you’re familiar with Dougs Stats, but it is a website that has various baseball statistics. They are your typical stats, but he has a section for The Last 20 games. A quick check shows that the Tigers are tied for the fewest errors in the AL over the last 20 games with 7. The Tigers still haven’t been walking much, where they are second to last. But fortunately they have cut down the strikeouts and have the 3rd fewest over that timespan.

  On the pitching side they have struck out the fewest hitters over the last 20 games, and allowed the second most home runs which goes along ways towards explaining and ERA of 5.18.

  As far as individual acomplishments, Placido Polanco has more hits than anyone else in the AL over the last 20 games. Chris Shelton has the 5th most strikeouts in the AL, but also the third most walks with 14 (which means he has roughly 1/6 of the teams walks over the last 20 games).

  There are more Tigers on the various leaderboards, and it’s just a fun site to peruse. Dougs Stats – I recommend it.

• Another great way to spend a lot of time is looking at Fan Graphs. They have presented a ton of information for each player in a graphical format. For example, in the case of Brandon Inge you can see his dropoff in batting average this season:
  

  But then you can also see that about the time his batting average started dipping, he started hitting a lot more ground balls and fewer line drives and flyballs.
  
  This is just one example, and they have a ton more charts. Good times for baseball geeks.

• As for Carlos Pena, it is great to see him hitting the ball like he did against Toronto. The unfortunate thing is that there is pretty much no way the Tigers will keep him, or be able to trade him for much. Pena is making $2.6 million this year – which is quite a bit to pay for someone who spent half the year in the minors. Normally, you’d think that would work to the Tigers advantage when it comes time to offer a new contract. Unfortunately, the CBA dictates that the Tigers offer must be at least 80% of the previous year’s contract. So the Tigers offer would have to be at least $2.08 million which is probably more than they’d want to spend.

  As for trading Pena, the team that acquired him would be subject to the same salary rules. Also, the the other teams will know that Pena is most likely going to be non-tendered, meaning they’d have a shot at him anyways – at a much lower price.

I wrote a piece for MotownSports about what Jeremy Bonderman has accomplished over the last calendar year. It’s a pretty remarkable season for a 22 year old, that if you choose to look at the data selectively puts him in some pretty elite company. Here is the link for the story if you’re interested.

The Free Press is reporting that the Tigers and first round pick Cameron Maybin are still over a million dollars apart. What’s surprising is where the Tigers offer and Maybin’s demands are slotted. The common belief was that the Tigers were offering about $2 million – which is a reasonable number for a number ten pick. According to Baseball America #7 selection Troy Tulowitzki received $2.3 million, and number 11 selection Andrew McCutchen received a $1.9 million deal.

According to the report, the Tigers have offered $2.75 million. That falls in between what the number 4 ($2.975 million) and 5 ($2.45 million) picks received.

However, Maybin was rated among the top players in the draft and is asking to be paid like one of them. According to the Freep report he is asking for $4 million which is substatially more than the $3.4 million that #3 pick Jeff Clement signed for. The top two picks, Justin Upton and Alex Gordon have yet to sign.

I don’t see the Tigers increasing their offer by more than a quarter million so for a deal to get done, Maybin and his advisors are going to have to be more reasonable in their demands. That said, I don’t see a high schooler walking away from $3 million to go to college.

The title is a quote from color man Rod Allen at some point during the top of the 10th inning last night as the Tiger bullpen disintegrated. In the process a game that the Tigers had in control turned into a blow out. And it was set-up by a decision by Alan Trammell that didn’t work out.

Nate Robertson faced one of the most formidable offenses in baseball, and held them to two hits on 90 pitches through 8 innings. The offense scratched out a run in the 8th inning to give the team the lead with 3 outs to go. I remember thinking between innings about what move I’d prefer to see at that point – and not really coming up with a clear cut answer. On one hand you have a pitcher who has been stifling and efficient. But, he also benefitted from all of the really hard hit balls that night being hit right at people, and the last two outs of the 8th inning were caught on the warning track. His pitch count was low, but how many times can you count on him to get out hitters of the ilk of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez (who both were due up the next inning)?

You also have a fairly unproven closer who has been both shaky and dominant at various points. This time of year is also a time to evaluate whether or not Rodney will have the stuff and make-up to be a closer. What better situation than protecting a one run lead against the 2-3-4 hitters?

At the time I remember thinking to myself that no matter what decision Trammell makes, it better work out because he’ll get killed for it if they lost.

Trammell decided to go with his closer Rodney who gave up the tying homer to Big Papi – and the subsequent bullpen implosion in the 10th pretty much sealed the Tigers fate.

Trammell didn’t make a bad decision last night. He made a decision that didn’t work out, but it wasn’t a bad decision. It was a decision that a manager of a good team could and would make without being questioned. The Tigers need to find out if Rodney can be a closer, and those are the types of situations he needs to face. And Rodney didn’t lose the game, he blew the save. It was the inability of the remainder of the bullpen to keep the game within reach in the 10th inning that ultimately cost them.

And before you jump on Trammell too much, look at the bullpen that he has been dealt at this point. Half of them weren’t even with the club at the beginning of the season. They have a hodge podge of journeymen arms and guys on the wrong edge of the prospect spectrum.

All that being said, I can’t help but wonder if the game was tied going into the 9th, if Nate Robertson heads out there again. I have a suspicion that he would have as Trammell tried to get him the win. If he was managing for his pitcher’s stats instead of the teams record, then I would have a problem with the decision because I want the guy out there who Trammell thinks has the best shot at getting 3 outs.

A sad, yet somewhat interesting note about the game is that the Tigers became only the 4th team to hit an extra inning grand slam and lose.

For another reasonable take, check out Sam at Roar of the Tigers.

Rondell White came crashing to the left field turf yesterday, and at the same time he most likely ended his career as a Tiger. He’s undergoing an MRI today, but there stands a good chance that his season is over. And unfortunately, it doesn’t seem like the Tigers are likely to resign him. With that, let’s take a look at what White brought to the Tigers the last two years.

He played 218 games – starting 211 of them – and posted a very respectable .290/.342/.470 line. He banged out 31 homers and drove in 120 runs. This season he has been one of the Tigers most consistent offensive performer hitting 313/347/489. He is tied for the team lead in Win Shares with 13, with 12 of the win shares coming from his offense. He’s among the league leaders this year in batting average with runners in scoring position at .364. His run created total is 65 this year, combined with his 69 from last year means he has been responsible for about 9.8% of their offense.

Defensively Rondell does not have a good arm, and that was before he developed the tendonitis in his shoulder that forced him into regular DH duty. But his gimpy shoulder, and his older legs didn’t keep him from getting to a lot of balls. His ZR of .921 is tops amongst left fielders with more than 500 innings this year.

And then there is the clubhouse presence. I’m not really sure how much that translates to wins and losses, but Rondell has been pretty much universally praised for his leadership in the clubhouse. Craig Monroe, Chris Shelton, Nook Logan, and others have talked about how much they have learned from being around White. While other Tigers have been more vocal in the media, or cause other commotion, Rondell just seemed to come to work each day and bust his tail. Which is why it is unfortunate that White hurt himself on a hustle play after giving the team a lead with a first inning homer.

So when Tiger fans are talking about White’s salary coming off the books, keep in mind that there is a fair amount of production to replace as well.

Now this is a horrible way for it to happen, but Curtis Granderson should stand to get White’s playing time. Granderson has been tearing up the International League hitting 290/359/515 with a triple double in extra basehits. He’ll be a lefthanded bat in a lineup that is heavily right handed. It will be a great opportunity to get him some extended big league playing time and find out if he can handle centerfield at Comerica Park.

It’s old news, but Pudge has been AWOL from the team for the last week during his suspension. And then of course, he had difficulty making it back on time from his sabbatical and wasn’t at the ballpark on time last night.

Terry Foster reported this morning that when Rodriguez asked Trammell and Dombrowski for permission to leave the team, he was told no. Rodriguez then went to owner Mike Illitch who gave him the thumbs up. Believe it or not, this might be the most disturbing part of this whole fiasco.

Dombrowski and Trammell did their jobs, and Illitch undermined their authority. In the pursuit of appeasing his superstar, he alienated his CEO/President/GM, his manager, and the rest of the clubhouse. If there is anybody that Illitch needs to worry about making happy it is David Dombrowski. Rodriguez has two more years on his contract, Dombrowski has one. As a free agent Dombrowski will be more sought after than a 35 year old catcher. The Tigers aren’t contending this year, and probably won’t be next year as well while they break in Justin Verlander, Joel Zumaya, and Curtis Granderson. They can’t afford to go through another front office shuffle and another 5 year plan.

Now back to the Pudge situation. He probably should have been with the team during the majority of the suspension. If he needed a day or tow to take care of fmaily business in Miami, it probably would have been pretty understandable. Instead, he was in Colombia for some reason – and waited until the last minute to join his team. If he was upset that Dombrowski gave up on the team when he traded Farnsworth, then Pudge gave up on his team by not being with them. His personal business is his personal business, but when it comes to not being with his teammates they have a right to know.

On the pregame show tonight they mentioned that Pudge was with the team, but he wasn’t in the lineup. They also indicated that Rodriguez met with the team. Hopefully things are resolved and the team can move forward.

There has been lots of Tiger news and speculation, and outside of Placido Polanco re-upping last week, it’s all been bad.

On Terry Foster’s blog, he reported a couple days ago that Trammell’s job is only in jeopardy if there is a revolt. In that post he indicated that several players are already unhappy.

There are also numerous grumblings that the team is upset that Pudge decided to return to Miami rather than serve his suspension with the team.

All this is troubling for several reasons. I’m not upset that players aren’t happy – in fact they shouldn’t be happy given the way things are going. However, one of the positives about Trammell as manager is that even despite the losing, clubhouse grumblings never made the press. The Tigers endured some dark times the last couple years, but problems in the clubhouse didn’t seem to surface. The uprising – if true – isn’t a good sign.

Second, the reason that Foster thought Trammell would be back barring a revolt is that Mike Illitch would keep him around – despite what Dave Dombrowski might suggest. Dave Dombrowski and Alan Trammell both have one year left on their contracts. As much as I really want Alan Trammell to succeed in Detroit, I think it is more important to ensure that Dombrowski remains with the team. In other words – don’t piss off Dombrowski and start working on an extension.

Another thing that I’ve given Trammell for is his diligence in trying to protect his young pitcher’s arms. But then Pat Caputo wrote that the Tigers won’t be limiting Bonderman’s innings this year:

Bonderman is on pace for 224 innings – which isn’t excessive for a number 1 starter. And given the fact that Bonderman threw 184 innings last year it isn’t a tremendous jump up. Plus, Bonderman is in his 3rd major league season. But, and this is a big but, he is still only 22 and is still at an age where arm injuries are very prevalent. He is the best thing that the Tigers have going for them, and I don’t see the need to risk his and the team’s future to get an extra start or two. I’d much prefer to see the Tigers go to a 6 man rotation in September. Bob Cluck has said that Roman Colon would be starting at some point this year, and I wouldn’t mind seeing Kenny Baugh get a couple starts. Not that I have high expectations for Baugh, but he is on the 40 man roster and it would be a great opportunity to find out what he could do at the big league level.

Meanwhile Justin Verlander is resting until the tightness in his shoulder goes away and first rounder Cameron Maybin doesn’t appear any closer to signing.

In their last 16 games the Tigers have gone 4-12 and wiped out any and all momentum they gained since taking 3 of 5 from the Minnesota Twins. They have dropped to a season low 8 games under .500 and have the same record they did last year at this time. As a fan it is hard not to be down on this team. Things are not good right now, and it’s getting hard to remember how good this team played at various points this season. I try to avoid getting too high or too low, but this is the lowest I’ve been this year. Here’s hoping that they can stop this slide.

PS – There is one bright spot. The Tigers have agreed to terms with 5th round pick Jeff Larrish.

If you’re looking for that special brand of DTW “analysis” I did a piece about the Tigers rotation over at Motown Sports. Here’s the link to check it out.