All posts by billfer

Opening Day

It’s finally here (sighs blissfully).

That’s about all I can muster up this morning, as we sit on cusp of what should be Detroit’s first winning season since 1993. Jeremy Bonderman, the man who carries the Tigers’ hopes will also be carrying the ball today against the Royals. With a forecast in the low 60’s with sun, things are shaping up for this to be the best opener in recent memory.

As for me, I’ll be at the game so I won’t be posting any updates. My pregame ritual will take me to a coney island for breakfast, before heading down to Casey’s. Casey’s is by the old Tiger Stadium at Michigan and Rosa Parks. While there are some fine establishments closer to Comerica Park (i.e. Towne Pump, Detroit Beer Co., etc) I prefer the tradition that the older bars (i.e. Casey’s, Nemo’s) provide.

As I said, I’ll be at the game so I won’t have any commentary. However, feel free to post any thoughts in the comments. Or, check out one of the great message boards like MotownSports that will have a lively game thread running.

Other Stuff
As is old news by now, the Tigers put Steve Colyer and Gary Knotts on waivers, and both made it through. Knotts is in Toledo, and Colyer is with the Mets organization after being traded for Mike Ginter. This isn’t a big move, so it doesn’t deserve big commentary. So my take on it is: “it should be okay.”

Knotts meanwhile is complaining of shoulder soreness. That may explain why in his start last week, his fastball was sitting in the high 80’s instead of the low 90’s.

And former Tiger Alex Sanchez was the first player busted in the new steroid program. I don’t even know what to make of this.

More Predictions
The crew at TigersCentral has their season preview up, which is worth checking out.

And Lynn Henning says second place for the Tigers.

David Pinto picks the Tigers to finish 3rd.

Previewing the Offense – Catcher, Outfield, and DH

Time to wrap up the season preview with catchers, outfield, and DH. The other previews are linked to below:
Rotation
BullPen
Offense-Infield

Catcher
The desperate Tigers gave a desperate Pudge $40 million dollars last year and everybody seemed to benefit. Rodriguez was instrumental in the Tigers return to the 70 win range, and found himself in the MVP race after batting .500 in June. His RC27 was 7.37 last year which was markedly higher than his previous 3 years (6.78, 6.98, 6.11). Pudge reported to camp substantially lighter this year, and it remains to be seen what effect it will have on his performance. It appears that most of the weight Pudge lost was in the midsection that contributed to his nickname. As such, I wouldn’t expect a lack of bat speed. Like Carlos Guillen, he probably won’t be able to replicate last season, however he’ll still be very good. I’m also hoping that a “not-so-Pudge” will be able to log more playing time as well. A RC27 of 6.5 should be attainable over 140 games, meaning his RC total should be 101.

Former Met Vance Wilson will be assuming back up duties this year. His career RC27 is 3.7 which seems reasonable. Over the remaining games Wilson should have 9 RC.

Catcher: 110 Runs Created
Change From Last Year: +5

Outfield and DH
I was saving this for last for the sole reason that I really have no idea how playing time will be allocated. When Trammell kept Higginson, that really through things out of whack. Instead of looking at each outfield position seperately, I’ll look at it as a group, and then explain what I expect from each player.

Below is a table with my best guess at playing time allocation:

Magglio Ordonez
He was the easiest part of this exercise. He’ll be playing right field or DH. I really think that the knee is fully recovered. Given his history of health prior to last year, I think he’ll play the bulk of the season without incident. However, I think Tram will be cautious and “rest” him at DH about once a week or so. His RC27 the last 3 years was 5.94, 7.55, and 8.29. The 5.94 came last year and isn’t probably indicative. I expect he’ll bounce back from that, but be adversely effected moving from Cellular One to Comerica and am forecasting a RC27 of 6.5.

Craig Monroe
I’m expecting big things from Monroe this year. Though his performance the last two seasons differed substantially, the net result was still pretty good. Defensively I’m not expecting a gold glove, but I think the ability he does have, and his willingness to learn will make him passable in center. Two years ago his RC27 was 4.3 and it improved to 6.0 last year. At age 28, I think he’s got a little room to improve and I’m projecting a 6.1 in 150 games across the three outfield positions.

Rondell White
I like Rondell. He seems to get a long with everybody in the clubhouse. He’s a pretty steady performer. And he really seems to enjoy being a Detroit Tiger. However, defensively he’s weak, and at 33 with his history of injury I think 115 games is realistic. His RC27 dropped from 5.7 to 5.2 last year. Despite his great spring, I’m expecting it to drop a little more to 5.0.

Bobby Higginson
The fact that Bobby made the team is pretty surprising. In fact, I had half of a “Closing the Books on Bobby” post already written. That being said, Higginson does have some value as a left handed pinch hitter in a lineup that is heavily righthanded. He won’t get the game breaking hit with his sub .400 slugging percentage, but he should be able to keep a rally alive given his ability to talk a walk. I don’t think he’ll be getting a ton of starts, and barring an injury I think he’ll be gone before June. His RC27 was 4.55 last year, and I’d expect about the same this year.

Marcus Thames
All spring you heard Trammell talking about guys having to “earn it.” Thames had a huge spring, but lost out to Higginson. I think I may be low on my playing time predictions for Thames, but seeing as he isn’t even on the big league club yet I wasn’t sure how much to put him down for. A RC27 of 5.0 seems reasonable. If he exceeding that, he’ll probably be getting himself some more playing time.

Nook Logan
Logan will get the occasional start in center, but by and large he will be a pinch runner and late inning defensive sub. He managed a surprising .340 OBA in limited time last year. That earned him a RC27 of 3.9. I don’t expect he’ll hit quite that well again and have him at 3.5.

Curtis Granderson
I don’t know if he’ll be the savior in centerfield everybody is hoping for or not, but he should be decent. I really have very little history to go on here. I do think he’ll be in the majors before the September call-ups. I’m taking a shot in the dark on a RC27 of 4.5.

Dmitri Young
This leaves about 125-130 games for Young at DH (with him picking up about 15 games at first). I covered Dmitri briefly in the Infield section and I’m projecting a 6.0 RC27 for him next year.

Outfield: 307 Runs Created
Change From Last Year: +39

DH: 107 Runs Created
Change From Last Year: +26

Wrapping it All Up
So in total, I have the Tigers offense scoring 896 runs this year. Last year that would have been good enough for third place. Now each player prediction on its own seemed plausible, but the total seems a little optimisitic to me. Combined with the 59 run improvement I have in store for the pitching staff, and their pythagorean record becomes 91-71. While it would make that season ending series in Minnesota very interesting, I think a 90 win season would be pretty much best case.

I expect the Tigers to settle in with a win total of about 83, but anything from 79-86 wouldn’t really surprise me. A win total anywhere in the range would probably clump them with Cleveland and Chicago. So they could finish anywhere from second to fourth. I think they are better than Chicago, and just a hair behind Cleveland so I’m picking them to finish 3rd.

My biggest concern heading into this year is the defense. It was awful last year, and the Tigers didn’t really make substantial moves to improve it. Yes, Eric Munson is gone, but Munson was only making errors for half a season at one position. Also gone is Alex Sanchez, but he has been replaced with a corner outfielder. Add in Carlos Guillen, who was slightly above average last year, probably losing some range due to his knee injury and the team outlook isn’t that good. The toll the defense takes on a young pitching staff could be substantial.

Speaking of young pitching, I’m most excited to see what Jeremy Bonderman can do this season. He’s poised to make “the leap.” Whether or not it happens remains to be seen. I’m also curious to see how Tram manages this year. He’s acknowledged that he doesn’t have a speed team, and hopefully his small ball tendencies will continue to wane.

In any case, enough previews and predictions. Let’s Play Ball!

Interviewing Ernie – Part 2

Continuing on with my interview with Ernie Harwell. Click here for part one.

DTW: Since the format of the Veterans Committee was changed, there have been two elections, and nobody was elected. Do you think that?s appropriate, or do you think that the Committee will be changed again?

EH: Well, I think they might tweak it, but I think one of the strengths of the Baseball Hall of Fame is that it?s more difficult to get into than most other halls of fame in sports. And I?d like to keep it that way. I don?t think it?s really bad that you don?t elect anybody. But I also think that probably, in the long run, that the Veteran?s Committee is something that time has bypassed. I think most of the people that really belong in there, with a few exceptions, have been selected by the writers. I don?t like the idea of the second chance that is symbolized by the Veteran?s Committee. I know a lot of people disagree with that because there are some players that are on the cusp, on the margin there that I?d like to see in. But I like that it?s tough to get in.
DTW: My favorite player is Lou Whitaker, does he have a shot?

EH: I don?t think so. I think the voting that we?ve seen indicates that he wouldn?t have much of a chance. He?s very deserving if you look at the stats, and compare him with second basemen who are in there. He ranks right near the top I?d say, but there are a lot of things that factor in. One of them is exposure in the World Series. One of them is the media center in New York. I think a lot of things get factored in and he doesn?t have much of a chance.
DTW: So the same fate is probably true of his Tiger teammates like Trammell as well?

EH: Regretfully I have to say it does. His showing in the balloting just wasn?t strong enough to give us any optimism that he?ll get in.
DTW: Given the recent steroid allegations, if they came up on the VC ballot, would you vote for some of the guys who?ve been accused/suspected like Bonds and McGwire?

EH: I think I?d vote in favor of those two guys.

I really think the steroid situation will die down in a little while. It was brought to the attention of Congress and I think it?s a good that it?s out in the open. And I also felt that baseball could have avoided that if commissioner and players union had gotten together earlier and had nipped it in the bud, and issued a strong policy against steroids which they didn?t do. And they still haven?t done.

Although it was a great embarrassment to baseball, I think it?s good that it came out and maybe something will happen now to strengthen the ruling about using steroids.

The way I feel about records is that you have to take them as they come. I don?t believe anybody would be able to figure it out. Let?s take say Barry Bonds, and you were to make some asterisk to his home run total. I don?t know how you?d figure out when he started taking steroids, or if he did. It?s such a murky situation. I think we sort of have to just accept it, and as we talk about it just say ?well, he probably took steroids while he was playing.?

DTW: Does this just become another era like pre-segregation, WWII, the spitball era, the deadball era?

EH: Yeah, I think so. I think you?ve got to say back in 1909 guys were hitting less than 10 home runs and leading the league ?that was one era, just like you said. Then the spitball came in and went out and that was another era. Then you had the so-called lively ball coming in. Way back you had moving the pitching mound back to 60 feet, 6 inches. And you have more changes like that. You have smaller ball parks, bigger guys, and there are so many variations that come and go in baseball. I think this just has to be another one.
DTW: Speaking of eras, is there one you are most fond of, or would have like to have seen?

EH: I sort of would have liked to have been around during the dead ball era. I think that was pretty interesting. First the ballparks were primitive. The equipment wasn?t very good. But, maybe things were a little purer then, about the game than they are now. Though they had a lot of rascals, and a lot of things happened that they?d [laughing] put an evil eye on now. But from a standpoint of what we knew how people followed the game at that time, it was really more just a game. The only way people followed the games those days was through the newspapers. You didn?t have the investigation, and all the pressure and media attention that you have now that puts the spotlight on everything and digs in the dirt and brings out somethings we don?t want to know.
DTW: Over the years I know you?ve amassed a large collection of memorabilia and artifacts. Are there a couple that are most special to you?

EH: Well, I?ve gotten rid of most of them because I gave them to the library. The Detroit Public Library has most of my stuff. And when we moved in 2003, I just couldn?t bring the stuff with me so we had an auction. An auction house in Chicago auctioned off what was left that I didn?t give to the library. So I really don?t have anything anymore. I had a Babe Ruth check at one time. I had my World Series rings, a replica of the 1968 World Series trophy. I had signed pictures from guys. I was proud of all those things, but you?ve got to move on.
DTW: To wrap things up, I?m going to ask you about some of your favorites
DTW: What was your favorite season to call?

EH: Well, I think that it is probably 1968 or 1984. They were pretty equal. 1968 a little bit more maybe because it followed the riots and it was a longer interim between championships between ?45 and ?68 than ?68 and ?84. So I think that one would probably be my favorite.

Ebbetts field in Brooklyn was really great for me because it was my first job, and I really liked the people. The Dodgers had a contending team, a pennant winner my second year there.

There?s so many things. You know the Giants won in ?51 and that was a great thrill. Just going to Baltimore and being the first announcer there was a great break for me as well.

So it?s hard to put your finger on, but I?d probably say it?s the ?68 Tigers.

DTW: Favorite manager?

EH: I?ve got a lot of them. The guy I like the best out of all the managers I worked with was probably Sparky. I think he was probably the best manager that I saw. I liked Durocher, he was a good sharp one. Bob Scheffing was one of my personal favorites. Although he didn?t last too long, we were real close friends. Paul Richards was another one that I had a lot of admiration for. He taught me more about baseball than any of the other guys.
DTW: Favorite umpire?

EH: [laughing] I guess Nestor Shylack. I liked his attitude. I liked his enthusiasm. I liked the way he approached the game. I liked the way he was fairly liberal with not tossing guys out. And he was an excellent umpire. There were a lot of great ones, but I think probably he was my favorite.
DTW: Most interesting baseball character?

EH: I tell you we could make a list of a hundred of those. Norman Cash probably. Clint Courtney was another one. A fellow named Ray Murray in Baltimore, a sort of a journey man catcher was another one. Mark Fydrich. And Ted Williams was always an interesting personality I thought.
DTW: One of my favorite things about listening to you call games were the anecdotes that you?d sprinkle throughout the broadcast. What are a couple of your favorite baseball stories?

EH: Well you know, everybody has a different reaction I guess. One of them that I liked a lot was the rookie in the Southern League. Joe Engel was sort of the Barnum of Baseball in the minor leagues, sort of an early Bill Veeck. He had a shortstop that was holding out. In those days a telegram was a big deal. You negotiated by Western Union. He got a telegram from this guy who said ?Pay me $5000 or count me out.? So Joe Engel sent back a telegram that said, ?One, Two, Three, Four, Five, Six, Seven, Eight, Nine, Ten.?

Another one I like is Gene Mauch, when he retired as a player he actually got a hammer and nails and nailed his shoes up against his locker.

Those things, there?s millions of them and it is sort of hard to put your finger on one. I sort of like the one about the two-tone bat. It started when Dixie Walker went to Louisville and he found a bat in a bucket of paint. About half way up the bat was one color, and the rest of the way up the bat was another color. That started the two-tone bat.

But all those things I like to delve into them because they are a little bit different.

At this point we wrapped things up and I thanked Mr. Harwell profusely.

He was very generous with this tims, and very patient with me as I nervously stumbled through my questions. I grew up listening to Ernie, and the number of times that he and Paul Carey put me to bed at night were countless. I’d set my clock-radio to ‘Sleep’ and listen as long as I could stay awake. When I shared that with Ernie his response was simply, “we sure cured a lot of insomnia.”

The biggest thrill for me doing this interview was listening to Ernie talk about some of his favorite stories. Each story on its own isn’t that remarkable. However, it is all the small stories, like the ones he shared, that seperate baseball from the other sports. It’s the funny quotes and situations that can only be born in the midst of a summer long schedule. When the stories are combined they form the fabric of the games itself. And to hear Ernie tell the stories in his own voice, that is what baseball is all about.

I know that some of you commented in the other post that you could hear Ernie saying the words as you read them. I exerienced a similar phenomenon while conducting the interview. Hearing him talk was so second nature, I almost forgot sometimes that I was having a conversation with him, and not listening on the radio. It was a tremendous thrill for me to do this, and I hope that you guys enjoy it.

Interviewing Ernie – Part 1

For those who have lived in the metro Detroit area, there is one voice that is instantly equated with summer. That voice belongs to Mr. Ernie Harwell. Harwell called Tiger games from 1960 through his retirement in 2002 (except for a messy 1992 season). Prior to coming to Detroit, he worked for Baltimore, the NY Giants, and the Brooklyn Dodgers.

He’s called no-hitters, World Series’, Willie Mays debut, Bobby Thomson’s shot heard round the world, and has seen and experienced the game like few others have. He remains the only announcer to be acquired via a trade (Branch Rickey sent Cliff Dapper to the Atlanta Crackers in exchange for Harwell). Harwell’s distinctive voice and no frills attention to detail led to a longevity that made evenings at the cottage with Ernie a tradition and rite of summer.

Mr. Harwell was kind enough to spend a morning speaking with me over the phone. Here is part 1 of that interview:

DTW: How is your retirement going?

EH: Well, retirement is going beautifully. I just took another direction, I’m still as active as I was, I’m just not doing play by play. I’m the spokesman for Blue Cross Blue Shield. We signed a ten year contract with a ten year option so I’m going to have to live to be 106 to fulfill it. But I’m going to do it or die trying, one or the other. It keeps me busy. I do a lot of speaking, a lot of commercials. They use me on the billboards at Ford Field, Comerica Park and all over Michigan. It’s been pretty productive for us and it’s been a great association.

Also I’ll be writing my column for the Free Press. It starts next week and I’ve been doing it every summer for 15 years now.

And in addition to that I do about 27 vignettes on FSN Detroit that they use. Just sort of stand up and tell a story and reminisce a little bit.

And other than that I’m just sort of hanging around here. I don’t miss the play by play much. I did it for seven decades and 55 years, so I feel like that was enough. I did enough damage and I’m just going to let other guys do it now.

DTW: Do you still follow the Tigers closely?

EH: Yes I do. I went down to spring training. I got to schmooze around with them a little bit. I had dinner with Alan Trammell and some of the other guys. I keep an eye on them, more as a fan now than as a worker. But, I don’t follow them quite as closely, naturally, because I don’t travel with them. But I go down to the ballpark now and then.
DTW: Do you watch the games on TV or listen on the radio?

EH: I listen on the radio most of the time, but if there’s TV I might look a little bit at that.
DTW: Do you have a prediction for how they’re going to finish this year?

EH: Well, I think everybody’s optimistic, but that’s part of it being spring time you know? I feel everything is going good. I think they’ll be better. I’m not quite as optimistic as some people. So much depends on that young pitching staff. We’ve got to wait and see if they continue to be promising and see how they establish themselves as major league starters.
DTW: Speaking of spring training and optimism, you started a tradition of reading a verse from the Song of Solomon (2, 11:12), the Voice of the Turtle. How did that begin?

EH: Well, I had been in Detroit for quite a while before that started. I’d say it was probably in the mid 70’s or early 80’s. I don’t have any idea that I can put my finger on it precisely. But I was reading that in the bible and it sort of struck me that this reminded me a lot of spring training and Opening Day, and I began to use it and people picked it up so I kept on using it.
DTW: Before coming to Detroit you were with the Dodgers, Giants, and Baltimore. What was it about Detroit that made it your final destination?

EH: Detroit was always a favorite city of mine when I traveled in the American League when I went to Baltimore in 1954. The first two games the Orioles played in their new Major League situation were in Tiger Stadium. I used to come to Detroit with the Orioles and I really liked the town a lot, and made some friends here. Then when Van Patrick was out as the announcer after the 1959 season, the Tigers got in touch with me and wanted to know if I’d be interested in leaving Baltimore. I felt like I had a good job there, and I was very happy there but I’d be foolish not to listen to an offer. They made me a good offer and I decided I’d come.

The franchise at that time was a well established franchise. It was a great baseball town, Michigan had terrific support for the Tigers. All those things enticed me to come here.

DTW: George Kell was involved in you coming to Detroit, as the two of you had met in Baltimore, and he was currently with the Tigers. Do you still keep in touch with Mr. Kell? I know that he’s had a rough streak.

EH: He’s had a tough time. I’ve called him several times. The last time I called him he couldn’t’ get to the phone, but I talked to his wife Carolyn. He has had a struggle.

When he was playing he got hurt in Baltimore, and he was up and around the press box so I said come on, get on the air with us. He did a few innings on the radio with us and seemed to like it. Then he got a job with CBS on the pregame show. He landed a job here [Detroit], and when an opening came up he called me in New York right at the end of the season in ’59. He told me the Tigers were interested in me and asked if I’d come. So there was a little payback there and we had a great association.

DTW: One anecdote I heard about you in the booth is that you would set an egg timer to remind you to give the score. Is that true?

EH: I did that for a little while, but that was sort of a Red Barber thing. He did that in Brooklyn, and would give the score and then turnover the egg timer. But it took a little bit too long I think, to drain the sand out and I felt you ought to give the score a little more often than that. I really made that my number one priority. If you don’t do that the listener really can’t set himself or herself psychologically as to how to listen to the game. I believe that’s the first thing that an announcer has to do is to keep people informed about what the score is.
DTW: You called a number of significant moments, like pennant clinching games and no-hitters. Is there anything that you would do to prepare for those dramatic ninth innings?

EH: I never did that. I just thought it would be more effective if you just react to whatever happens. You can never anticipate how it’s going to happen. Sometimes, like Aaron’s homer you can look forward to, but it’s too contrived to prepare what you’re going to say. So I always just let it go and react in the way that it hit me when the event happened.
DTW: Calling the last inning at Tiger Stadium, you did something very uncharacteristic for you and ignored the action on the field to read a tribute. Were there any other times that you broke away from the game like that?

EH: No, I’d prepared a little bit of a speech there as I remember it. I felt like I had to do that. It was uncharacteristic, you’re right about that. I can’t remember another time. I think in Baltimore we came back and did something after the game was over. And I think in Toronto [Ernie’s final game] we did it right at the end of the game.
DTW: As part of the speech you prepared for the last game at Tiger Stadium, you referred to the stadium as , “My home, my office, my refuge…A timeless gift to the past.” What do you think should be done with Tiger Stadium and what do you think of it standing empty.

EH: Ideally I think they should make some kind of a shrine out of it. Maybe keep it alive and have sandlot baseball or something like that. But it seems like it is such a large problem to get money to maintain it, I don’t think that’s going to happen. I think eventually it will either fall down or be the victim of the wrecking ball.

I know a lot of people in the years since the closing of the stadium had been imminent have had grandiose ideas about what to do but, nobody has come up with any money. They have a lot of neat things that they think should happen, but nobody comes up with the backing. I just don’t think it’s going anywhere.

DTW: At this point would you rather see it knocked down or have it sit there and rot?

EH: Well, I think so. It’s a matter of practicality. I think it would probably cost a lot more money to knock it down than have it fall down. Either way it is going to be a sad occasion, but I think the better way to do it would be to have the wrecking ball take over.
DTW: In your Hall of Fame induction speech, you read an essay you penned in 1955 called “Baseball – A Game for All America.” It’s been 50 years since you wrote that. Does it still hold true for you, and would you change it at all?

EH: Oh yeah, I’d bring it up to date. I’ve been tempted to do that. I think ESPN or CBS or somebody had a TV game opening the season and they asked me to change it a little bit and I did for that occasion. But I always felt that I should leave it as is. If I ever recite it I always say that times have changed and a lot of things have happened to the game, good and bad. But I really think the spirit of the game between the lines is pretty much the same as it was.

I’ve had people know it’s written in 1955 because you say things like Honus Wagner hit a triple 46 years ago [laughing], and there are a lot of great players that aren’t even mentioned in that. You have to be selective when you make it. For instance I didn’t mention Ted Williams although he was contemporary then. Then people that came later like Hank Aaron, and Roger Maris, and Barry Bonds aren’t even in there. That’s why I think it’s better to keep it the way it is and give a little preface.

Part 2 will becoming in the next day or two once I get a chance to transcribe it, and we’ll talk about the Hall of Fame, the Veterans Committee, and steroids in baseball.

Previewing the Offense – Infield Edition

Continuing in the season preview series, I’ll now take a look at the infield. To predict the offensive contributions I’ll be using Runs Created and Runs Created per 27 outs (RC27). Runs created in it’s shortest form is on base average times total bases. RC27 is the number of runs a team of 9 identical players would typically score in a game. There have been several refinements to this formula to take more into account. Last year the Tigers RC was 844 and their actual runs scored was 827, or a variance of 17 runs – so it’s pretty darn close.

Now on to the predictions…

First Base
A late power surge last year pushed Carlos Pena to a career high 27 home runs. Pena seems to have settled in as a .245 hitter who becomes more valuable by walking a great deal. He had 70 walks last year and posted a .338 OBA despite his batting average. He also slugged .472 which is respectable given his batting average as well. Given the fact that he is the Tigers only left handed power threat, he stands to play pretty much every day. The only thing that would deter him are injuries and playing really really poor. His RC27 the last 3 years has been rising (4.76, 4.92, 5.34) and following that line I’d peg him at 5.77. If he plays 150 games that works out to 96 runs created.

Dmitri Young will get the rest of the starts at first, and his RC27 numbers when healthy are between 6 and 7. Last year he dipped to 5.6. A return to 6.0 is feasible and he should account for an additional 8 runs created.

First Base: 104 Runs Created.
Change From Last Year: +10

Second Base
Omar Infante started off last year trying to forget his previous season. In 2003 he was given the opportunity to start, only to be demoted to Toledo mid-season. He made the club as a utility player because the Tigers had signed Fernando Vina to play second base. An early season ending (and probably career ending) injury to Vina opened the door for Infante to play, and Omar capitalized. He slugged .449 as a 22 year old and played an adequate second base. He will get the bulk of the starts at second base health permitting. He’s had back problems in the past, and has battled a sore shoulder this spring which puts him at a higher injury risk than I’d like to see. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his power regress slightly (he’s never hit for that kind of power in his major or minor league career before), but I think his average and OBA will increase slightly. In short I’d expect the same kind of production as last year and he will contribute 73 RC over 140 games.

Jason Smith and Ramon Martinez will provide backup duties for second, third, and short. Smith’s RC27 last year was 3.9 while Martinez’s was 3.6. For simplicity sake we’ll call the backup infielder duo has 3.7 RC27. Over 22 games that is 9 runs.

Second Base: 82 Runs Created.
Change From Last Year: +5

Third Base
Prior to 2004, Brandon Inge had a career .198/.254/.315 offensive line. That was the worst performance in the Majors from 2001-2003 (minimum 900 plate apperances). That’s what makes last year’s .287/.340/.453 so surprising. Inge made the team despite his offensive performance because he could back up 3 critical positions – centerfield, third base, and catcher. Given that Chris Shelton was holding on to a roster spot but not contributing that made Inge a valuable component. When Munson failed to hold onto the third base job, it became Inge’s for the taking.

Despite Inge’s success last year, the Tigers weren’t sold on it. They tried to acquire free agents to man the hot corner including Adrian Beltre, Troy Glaus, and Edgar Renteria (to play short and move Guillen to 3rd). However the Tigers didn’t find any takers. Inge will probably get 130 starts or so at third if he can hit at all. I think his power was real last year as his isolated power has been on the rise (IsoP is slugging minus batting average) from .131 to .136 to .167 last year. His plate discipline has been fairly steady as well. I’d expect his average to dip though to the .250 range for a stat line of .250/.315/.410 or a reduction of about 9% in his OPS. His RC27 last year was 5.39 and if that is reduced 9% it would be 4.91. Over 135 games that is 74 runs created.

With the backup crew picking up the remaining games, that is 11 more RC.
Third Base: 85 Runs Created.
Change From Last Year: -4

Shortstop
If only the Tigers could trade minor league non-prospects for guys that find themselves in the MVP race every year…Carlos Guillen looked to be a good player heading into last year, and I expected a big season from him – like a .280 hitter who might slug in the low .400s. Instead the Tigers had to settle for .318/.379/.542 and a hitter that they could slot anywhere in the batting order. What remains to be seen is if this new level of performance is sustainable, or a freakish career year. My take is that he won’t be able to repeat his performance in 2004, but he won’t slip all the way back to his career levels either. His RC27 had been on the rise from 4.03 to 4.45 to 4.83 prior to last year’s 7.60. I think part of his jump was moving to a new team and environment that fit him. I also think part of it was related to his age. And part of it was simply luck. I’m going to guess that his RC27 will be 6.0 and that he’ll manage 135 games (that has definitely been more predictable over his career). The results is 90 runs created.

The back up crew will pick up the remaining games and will contribute 11 runs.
Shortstop: 101 Runs Created.
Change From Last Year: -21

I’ll cover outfield, DH and catcher in the next edition.

Quick Updates

-In a move that suprised me, the Tigers sent Marcus Thames to minor league camp. This means that Nook Logan will be the back-up centerfielder. Most surprsingly, this means that Bobby Higginson has made the team. The Tigers may just be buying more time to try and deal him. Or, Trammell may just value his left hand bat and on base ability. He could also be used as a late inning defensive sub.

-The 11th pitcher has yet to be determined. What has been determined is that it won’t be Doug Creek. He was cut today as well. The candidates still in camp are Gary Knotts and Steve Colyer. I have to believe that it will be Knotts.
Update: Knotts and Colyer were placed on waivers. The last spot will go to someone the Tigers pick up off waivers, or one of the previously cut players. This last player will only be holding down the fort until Fernando Rodney comes off the DL (assuming that German has some degree of success).

MotownSports is back up and running for all of you needing a forum fix

-Baseball Prospectus has their AL predictions up in the free section. The Tigers are picked to finish 3rd in the AL Central. Nate Silver gave Jeremy Bonderman a 3rd place vote for AL Cy Young.

-The Tigers announced their Opening Day Festivities. Marvin Winans will sing the National Anthem and it will include a fly over by Selfridge jets.

Linkages

Here’s some other stuff to read while I finish up the preview of the offense…

Predictions
The big media outlets have started to release their predictions.

-CBS Sportsline’s panel has the Tigers finishing anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the AL Central. They also have several Tigers on the All AL Central Teams. Pudge, Maggs, and Guillen are first teamers while Infante and Percival are second teamers.

-The ESPN Baseball Tonight Crew has their video preview of the Central. Harold Reynolds likes the Indians to take the division while Kruk likes the Twins. Both mentioned the Tigers as greatly improved and in the mix.

What was refreshing about both of these previews is that the Tigers weren’t just automatically pegged for 4th place. When Baseball Tonight was talking about the AL Central, the 3 teams that were most talked about were the Twins, Indians, and Tigers – not the White Sox. Too many previews I’ve read this year just stick the Tigers in 4th, mostly out of habit. Now the Tigers could very well end up in 4th as I think the middle 3 teams (Sox, Indians, Tigers) are all pretty close.


The Rescue

The Free Press is running a three part story about the rescue of Ugueth Urbina’s mother. The first part is today, and details the actual kidnapping.

Ibis Guillen started dialing cell phone numbers. She left messages for her husband and others. The Tigers were heading to Tampa, having just finished a series at Kansas City. She hoped someone could tell Urbina in person. She left a vague but urgent message for him. He was the first to call back.

Ibis said gently: “I had a message that there’s something wrong going on with your mother.”

Then she told him all she knew. Afterward, Urbina said one thing: Book him a flight to Venezuela.

Tigers catcher Pudge Rodriguez, who often had invited Urbina and other Latin players to his Miami mansion, drove Urbina on the four-hour trip to south Florida with two other teammates: shortstop Carlos Guillen and second baseman Omar Infante, who both grew up in Venezuela and have family there.

They felt for Urbina, but could not help thinking of their families.

Roster Trimming
The back-up centerfield battle is down to two candidates. DeWayne Wise who is battling a bum wheel was sent to minor league camp. That leaves Alexis Gomez and Nook Logan in the running.
Update:Alexis Gomez was assigned to the minor league camp today. If the Tigers go with 11 pitchers, that most likely means that Thames and Logan will be the final two outfielders.

Previewing the Pen

Today I present Part II of my three part season preview. Last week I took a look at what the rotation should accomplish this year. Part II will focus on the bullpen (with the offense coming later this week).

No area of the team has undergone more change since last season, and no area needed it as much. Gone are Esteban Yan, Al Levine, Danny Patterson, and Roberto Novoa. Those four accounted for 220 of the bullpen’s 480 innings. Replacing them are Troy Percival, Kyle Farnsworth, a newly focused Franklyn German, and a cast of several. Fernando Rodney, coming back from Tommy John surgery, will join the fray once his shoulder stiffness heals. Other candidates to spend some time in a relief role this season are Gary Knotts, John Ennis, Andrew Good, Jason Grilli, and Mark Woodyard.

Here is what the pen did last year:

Ugueth Urbina
Urbina was solid in converting save opportunities, and he held opponents to a .194 batting average. However, his high walk rate led to some stressful 9th innings. He was still an effective pitcher, but he wasn’t dominant by any means. The bullpen collapsed without his presence in September when he left the team in the wake of his mother’s abduction. This year he will be moved to the set-up role. Assuming he is here for the full year, I would expect him to see about 70 innings of work. His ERA was higher than it had ever been in his career before, probably due in large part to his walks. What isn’t known is if he had control issues, or if he has turned into more of a nibbler. I’d guess that his runs allowed would drop slightly this year, but it probably won’t be below 4. Urbina Runs Allowed: 33

Troy Percival
There was a time several years ago when Troy Percival was one of the most dominant closers in the game. Unfortunately, injuries and age have sapped some of that dominance. Percival has seen his strike out rate drop 46% over the last 3 years. Opponents hit .230 off him last year, which is still impressive. However it pales in comparison to his career .186 mark.

The good news is that Percival closed 2004 strong. After the All Star break he posted a 1.67 ERA and a 3:1 strike out to walk ratio. If the second half is indicative of Percival’s ability then the Tigers will be in good shape. Add in the fact that he’s a flyball pitcher pitching in a homer un-friendly division, and it could amount to a solid season. The thing to watch is how much will he be able to pitch. The Tigers need to get 55 innings from him, a total he hasn’t hit since 2002. If he stays healthy, and pitches more inline with the 2nd half of 2004 then: Percival Runs Allowed: 26 Runs

Jamie Walker
Jamie Walker looks to be the sole left hander in the bullpen. Fortunately, Urbina and Gary Knotts had success against lefties last year as well. Walker wasn’t used as a LOOGY last year as he amassed 64 innings, due in large part because he was their most effective reliever. With the additions of Percival and Farnsworth, I’d anticipate that Walker’s innings would go down as he’s used more as a lefty specialist. While his innings will go down, his performance should improve as he is put in better situations. I see Walker pitching about 55 innings, and because he’ll be facing more left handed batters I see him allowing: Walker Runs Allowed: 21

Kyle Farnsworth
I have no idea what to project for Kyle Farnsworth. He’s been very good (2001, 2003) and he’s been awful (2002) at different points in his career. PECOTA puts him at 62 innings and a PERA of 4.20. I’ll stick with their ERA projection, but I’ll bump him up to 70 innings. Farnsworth Runs Allowed: 32

German, Rodney, etc.
And then there’s the rest of the bullpen. Franklyn German will break camp with the team. German has a history of doing great in the minors and spring training, only to lose sight of the plate in the majors. He’s out of options, so he’ll be given every chance to succeed this year. Fernando Rodney will begin the season on the disabled list but should join the team later in April. He has a tremendous change up and if he pitches like what is expected he will make Urbina expendable. Gary Knotts is another pitcher out of options. Rodney’s injury may give him a shot to break camp with the team. Barring further injuries, or severe struggles by Wil Ledezma I don’t see Knotts in the organization at the end of the season.

With Percival, Urbina, Walker, and Farnsworth picking up 250 innings, that leaves 220 innings for these last two bullpen spots. Without knowing how those last two spots will be manned, I’ll use replacement level rates (5.73) for those innings. I’m hoping that German and Rodney develop in to solid pitchers and are better than replacement level, however this will help to offset some of my more optimisitic predictions for Percival and Farnsworth. The Rest of the Pen: 140 Runs Allowed

Summary
In total that leaves the bullpen pitching 460 innings and allowing 251 runs. Last year they pitched 480 innings and allowed 280 runs. Combined with the improvement in the starting rotation, the Tigers should allow 59 fewer runs in 2005.

Disclaimers
I know there are lots of reasons why this could be a big pile of hooey. These are just my educated guesses first of all. Second, injuries could undermine this. Third, my projections for Percival and Urbina are on the optimistic side to say the least. Fourth, the Tigers defense, which was poor last year, probably won’t be greatly improved this year which could hurt the pitching staff.

Downtime

For those of you who have been looking for information on what happened to the MotownSports forum, MotownWebGuy posted this on the MLive Tigers Forum

Bert is correct. My hosting company was supposed to move to a new datacenter on Friday night, resulting in a limited shutdown of my server. Apparently the job was harder or bigger than they expected, and the downtime has streached from a few hours to a few days. The site will be back, it is just a matter of when. Lots of customers who have servers with this company are upset, including myself. I’ll be looking into other hosting options when this current fiasco is resolved.

Hope this clears up any confusion.

Also, I apologize for any incovenience you might have had the other night. My hosting company was migrating also. Apparently I received an email about it, but somehow missed it. After the site came back online, I wasn’t able to update. Finally, I can get new content up.

Bondermania…coming April 4th to Comerica Park

Today Alan Trammell reversed an earlier decision and announced Jeremy Bonderman would be the Opening Day starter. Jason Johnson had been named starter, but he has struggled with his control all spring. Meanwhile, Bonderman did his best to make Trammell change his mind by being quite dominant. Johnson will slide down to the third spot in an effort to balance the right handers in the rotation.

I like the way this rotation sets up from a bullpen-usage standpoint. Presumably, Mike Maroth will follow Bonderman, and Nate Robertson and Wil Ledezma will pitch 4th and 5th. Bondermann and Maroth are the top candidates to pitch late into games. Hopefully in their turns they’ll only be calling on two innings of support. On the other hand, Johnson loses effectiveness once he breaks the 90 pitch threshold. Even assuming that he starts to pitch better, he isn’t a real strong bet to make it out of the 6th inning frequently. Johnson’s bullpen load will be higher. Following Johnson will be Nate Robertson who should be able to amass 200 innings this season, and should be counted on to complete 6 innings so his bullpen usage would be moderate. At the bottom of the rotation is Ledezma who will be handled very delicately. He’s young, and due to injuries has only really pitched a full season one time. His bullpen usage will probably be relatively high. Luckily, the pen will then get a couple days to recover with Bonderman and Maroth starting the cycle again.

From a PR perspective, this move had to be made. I’m not an advocate of making moves to appease fans. I’m sure that wasn’t the motivation for Tram’s decision, but it is a benefit. Opening day in Detroit with the emerging ace on the mound should be electric. While it is quite a bit of pressure on the kid, he is facing the Royals lineup. If there was ever a team to work out jitters against, it would be KC. And, by all accounts he seems up to the challenge.

Roster Trimming
-The Tigers assigned Jason Grilli and John Ennis to minor league camp. Both will most likely be with Toledo. They also released Mike James which brings the total players in camp down to 32. They also told Dean Palmer he wouldn’t make the team, and Fernando Rodney’s stiff shoulder will likely land him on the DL. This pretty much locks up a spot for Gary Knotts. It also reduces the number of cuts to be made down to 5.

Steve Colyer is most certainly gone. After that, two of the following 5 outfielders will be heading north: Marcus Thames, Nook Logan, Dewayne Wise, Alexis Gomez, and Bobby Higginson.

Other Stuff:
-With less than a week to Opening Day, I’ll be getting posts up each day this week. I’ll be completing my previews of the bullpen and offense. I’m also aiming to get a pretty cool surprise up at the end of the week.
-Remember those cool charts about the defensive aptitude of the Tigers’ centerfielders? Well Baseball Musings now has charts available for every player, at every position, for every batted ball type. It is a great way to kill a couple of hours (if you’re into looking at graphs).

Batgirl to the Left of Me, Neyer to the Right…

All-baseball is rolling out their team-by-team predictions for the season. Yesterday was AL Central day and I had the honor of sharing web space with such baseball writing luminaries as Rob Neyer and Batgirl.

Right on my heels, Brian has his Tiger preview up at Hardball Times.

Here are several other previews/outlooks that have popped up on the net in recent weeks…
Roar of the Tigers
Batters Box
CNNSI
Baseball Think Factory
Fox Sports


Revivalist Notions

There is a cyber-roots movement to bring back two of baseball’s great, but nearly forgotten traditions – the bullpen car (via Blue Cats and Red Sox) and stirrups (via Baseball Musings). We can only hope that twi-night doubleheaders aren’t far behind.

The Bold are the Beautiful
Thanks for embracing the spirit of bold prediction day. There are a ton of great ones, but so far I think my favorites are:

Pudge will gun down Sanchez 3 times in one game.


In the year 2005, The Tigers will get into a brawl against the white sox after Bonderman brushes back Konerko, Inge will get a 6 game suspention for hogtying Konerko and wrestling him to the ground.

…and on a related note (though not so thrilled with the outcome of this one)…
The Tigers and Chi Sox with have no less than 3 brawls this year. Mags will get injured during one, thus voiding the remainder of his contract.

Bonderman will strike out 18 Twins in a game
…and…
Bonderman strikes out the side in the All-Star Game.

Urbina trade rumors
After his stint against the NY Mets yesterday, the Ugueth Urbina trade speculation is starting to clear up. It now appears that either he wants to be traded or he doesn’t.

The Bolder the Better

Have you ever had a gut feeling about something in sports, but it is so crazy and off the wall that you never voice it for fear of losing all credibility? These are the type of things you’d never bet money on, yet you pull for them out of hope or some sort of self validation. These are the types of things that you blurt out while finishing off your second 32oz beer at the game, only to hope your friends are too drunk to remember. These are the educated guesses that skip the “educated” part.

That’s what I want to do here. Give me that ridiculous prediction that you see in line for the Tigers this year. Leave your long shot predictions in the comments, and we’ll just try and have some fun. No mocking allowed! It can be about trades, breakthrough seasons, breakdown seasons, individual achievements, or team accomplishments. You won’t be thought less of (at least not by me). To start things off I’ll give you this:

Craig Monroe will start off the season crushing the ball and he will be competing in the Home Run Derby All Star Weekend.

Actually, this is a cheap stall tactic. I’m working on previewing the Tigers bullpen. Unfortunately, that’s tough to do when I only feel confident about three of the six guys manning the late innings. Between the Urbina trade rumors, the battle of the out-of-option crew (German, Colyer, and Knotts), and a strong looking Fernando Rodney the bullpen is still unsettled. Given all the uncertainty, I’m going to punt and buy some time.