All posts by billfer

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Hodge-Podge

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No analysis today. Just some commentary and links to interesting stuff…

1. The running theme that is going to irritate me the most this spring is the continuing implication that while Alex Sanchez struggles defensively, he is still the Tigers best option in centerfield. Lynn Henning (who is probably my favorite local writer) had this dead-on commentary regarding the Tigers’ outfield overcrowding in Sunday’s column:

Sanchez is like one of those weird high school yearbook entries: Returning Player Least Wanted By His Team. It’s nothing personal, although it really is. Everyone has grown so frazzled by his version of defense, by his base-running meanderings, by his double-doors-sized strike zone, that he drags down fans as much as he deflates his teammates.

But then Henning followed it up with this:

But he plays center field. And finding a good center fielder is at least as tough as grabbing a good shortstop.

And yes, good center fielders are hard to come by, but the statement implies that the Tigers are without other options. If you look at the total contribution, of offense (including baserunning), and defense the Tigers could use Monroe, Higginson, or even Logan without missing a beat (and some could argue Granderson as well). It’s true that Monroe and Higginson can’t cover the ground that Sanchez can in center, but they would be at least as effective.

Okay, that’s my last “Sanchez shouldn’t be playing centerfield” post of the month.

2. Former all-baseball.com brothers Rich Lederer and Bryan Smith teamed up to create a new site BaseballAnalysts.com. Over the weekend they chatted with Aaron Gleeman, and Brian previewing the AL Central. While the Twins were the consensus pick to win it, Brian was bold and took the Tigers to finish second. He of course was alone on this panel as the rest took them to finish 3rd or 4th. I don’t know if I’m quite there with you yet Brian, but it certainly isn’t crazy. I think the Tigers/Indians/White Sox will all be in a close race for 2nd.

3. Speaking of Brian, he and Blade wrapped up their battle of Sparky’s behemonths -the 1975 Reds versus the 1984 Tigers. Brian turned to the closer, 1984 MVP and Cy Young winner Willie Hernandez to clinch the win for the Tigers.

4. Pat Caputo’s column yesterday detailed why the Tigers would be foolish to trade Urbina.

Last season, he held opposing hitters to a .194 average, striking out 56 hitters and allowing just 38 hits in 54 innings. He walks a lot of hitters (32 last season), but it’s by design more than because he lacks command. Urbina just doesn’t give in to hitters. He doesn’t throw that hard anymore, so people have ignored his effectiveness. Yet, he has guts and moxie in abundance. His arm strength isn’t an issue.

What I liked best about Pat’s column is that he didn’t site the 21 of 24 in save opportunities, because Saves can be so misleading. In 17 of Urbina’s 21 saves, he wasn’t coming in to face the tying run and he pitched an inning or less(once again from the Bill James Handbook – honestly I get no commission). By the same token, as Studes at the Hardball Times points out today, the Tigers did use Urbina in high leverage situations. Urbina led major league closers by appearing in 9 games in the 9th inning with the score tied. So while the save statistic overstates Urbina’s effectiveness, there is other data that shows how important a reliever he continues to be.

5. The Tigers and Fox Sports announced their broadcast schedule today. FSN will be showing 110 games, which is most ever. A deal hasn’t been worked out yet with UPN, but from what I heard it will most likely be in the neighborhood of 20 games.

Injuries, Players

7-22=Suspicion

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It has been widely reported, Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez reported to spring training 22 pounds lighter than last season. In the steroid suspicion era, any significant weight loss will raise eyebrows. Combine the weight loss with an impending new drug policy, and allegations of steroid use by ex-teammate Jose Canseco and it’s pretty easy to see why people are pointing to this as potential proof of Rodriguez’s use of performance enhancers.

Quotes of Rodgriguez in the News, Free Press, and Booth Newspapers indicate that he altered his offseason workout routine to emphasize more running and less lifting. His explanation did little to quell suspicions as he was implying that the byproducts of his routine would be a less muscled physique. Also, skeptical folks might ask how a hard working, well conditioned athlete could lose 20 pounds in a couple of months. Afterall, it’s not like Joe Sedentary decided to get off the couch and start excercising to lose his beer gut.

Rodriguez most likely lost the bulk of his weight through the other component of his offseason regimine – he changed his diet. There is a Miami based nutrionist Sari Mellman, who has many professional athletes as clients. Some of those clients lost 20lbs. following her guidance. Her program involves taking a blood sample to see how the blood reacts with 150-200 different types of food. Apparently, food requirements vary from person to person. This blood test identifies the foods that are most beneficial and most harmful to the individual. If your body has an inability to properly process a type of food, it causes an inflammatory response. Mellman’s program claims to adjust your diet so that your body can learn to properly process these problem foods. The positive results, in addition to weight loss, are supposed to include an improved immune system, more energy, and better recovery time.

Here is a listing of some of her more prominent clients and their successes:
Ricky Williams goes from 250 to 229 (2002)
Vernon Wells goes from 245 to 225 during offseason (2004)
Jack Nicklaus loses 20lbs
She also lists Junior Seau, David Boston, and Dwight Freeney among her NFL clients. Other MLB clients include Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, and Brad Penney.

I don’t know that Pudge’s change in diet resulted in the substantial weight loss, but seeing the effects that a nutrionist had on other well conditioned athletes leads me to believe it is possible. My main point is that there are other ways to explain the weight loss than suspecting that he went off steroids.

Defense, Roster Management

A good reputation is hard to run on…

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Down at the bottom of my last post, I threw out a factoid that Alan Trammell only pitched out 8 times last season because the threat of Pudge was enough to deter the running game. This is despite the fact that Rodriguez only threw out 29% of runners attempting to steal. Pudge’s low success rate gunning down runners led to some great discussion, and it really deserves a closer look.

There were several possible explanations for Rodriguez’s stuggles last year. Luke raised the possiblity that only the best basestealers are running on Pudge because of his reputation. Therefore, they would be expected to have a better success rate. Similarly, managers may be more selective in picking their spots and thus increasing their chances. I’m not sure if either of these concepts are true or not, but it seems reasonable that they could have contributed.

Jason attributes Pudge’s slide more to deterioration of skills. He posted the following data showing Pudge’s downward trend the last few seasons

2004 59 SB Att, 32.2% CS
2003 60, 33.3%
2002 41, 36.6%
2001 58, 60.3%
2000 39, 48.7%

From 1991-1999, he threw out 50.1% of the 772 would-be base stealers. Interestingly, he averaged 86 attempts per season during that time.

I’m most inclined to agree with Jason. The last 3 years have shown a sharp decline from where he was. Last year I’m sure he was hindered by his hip flexor injury. There were several times he didn’t come out of his crouch to try and throw runners out, and even his arm can’t overcome that. Maybe the new, not so pudgy Pudge will regain some quickness behind the plate.

In the meantime, despite playing in a division full of managers who like to run, he had the lowest attempts against per nine of any regular catcher in the AL. The table below shows innings caught, stolen base attempts (SBA), attempts per 9 innings, pitcher caught stealing (PCS), and caught stealing percentage for the starting catchers in the AL. I threw Brandon Inge in there as well for illustrative purposes.



NAME                  INN   SBA  SBA/9In  PCS   CS%

Ivan Rodriguez,Det    1051   59    0.51     3  0.29

Miguel Olivo,CWS/Sea  760.1  49    0.58     6  0.26

Toby Hall,TB         1011.1  67    0.60     6  0.28

Henry Blanco,Min      872.1  61    0.63     5  0.45

Rod Barajas,Tex       908.2  64    0.63     6  0.28

Dan Wilson,Sea        827.1  66    0.72     4  0.29

Jorge Posada,NYY     1102.1  92    0.75     2  0.26

Damian Miller,Oak     963.2  81    0.76    17  0.28

Javy Lopez,Bal       1092.1  94    0.77     6  0.23

Bengie Molina,Ana     762    69    0.81     1  0.25

Jason Varitek,Bos    1062.2 100    0.85     3  0.21

Gregg Zaun,Tor        789    83    0.95     2  0.26

Victor Martinez,Cle  1108   119    0.97     4  0.23
     


Brandon Inge, Det    312.2   51    1.47     3  0.38

I was surprised to see that Pudge’s 29% is acutally still among the best in the league, second only to Henry Blanco. You’ll also probably notice that overall those CS rates seem lower than you would expect. The key here is that typically, CS rates show all baserunners who are caught stealing while the catcher is behind the plate. Pitcher caught stealing is listed in the Bill James Handbook. It is what happens when a pitcher makes a move over to first, and gets the guy who took off too soon and is thrown out at second. It is recorded as a caught stealing, even though the catcher wasn’t involved. When you take those out of the CS rate, you see much lower numbers.

While another possible explanation for Pudge’s “dropoff” was the Tigers young staff that couldn’t hold runners, the opposite is probably true. While Jeremy Bonderman and Jason Johnson are bad at holding runners, Rodriguez may have benefitted from having 3 lefties in the rotation for half of the year.

So while Pudge’s demise may be exaggerated, his normal caught stealing rates are still on the decline, and he probably shouldn’t be the most feared arm in the AL anymore. On the other hand, former back-up catcher Brandon Inge had a terrific caught stealing rate, and yet it stopped absolutely nobody from trying to run on him.

Other Notes:
-Hardball Times takes a look at the Doyle Alexander/John Smoltz trade from 1987. While typically referred to as one of the most lopsided deals, it managed to help both teams accomlish what they were looking for. Alexander got the Tigers to the playoffs, and Smoltz became a fixture in Atlanta.
-The battle for the last bullpen spot is heating up, and the loser probably won’t remain a Tiger. Gary Knotts and Franklyn German are both out of options, and both competing for the last spot on the pitching staff. Trammell has said several times he only plans on keeping 11 pitchers. With the 5 guys in the rotation set, and Urbina/Pericval/Farnsworth/Walker/Rodney (if healthy) already slotted for relief there is only one spot left. Chances are neither would clear waivers so the Tigers risk losing one of them.

Managing & Strategy

Tackling Tram’s Tactics

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Does Alan Trammell utilize small ball too much? What about his bullpen use and subsitution patterns. His in-game decision making over his first two years has been a source of frequent criticism on this site as well as others. However, what are the right tactics and how does he stack up against his peers?

With the help of the The Bill James Handbook: 2005 we can take a look at how often Trammell employs steals, pitch outs, sacrifices and a handful of other interesting stats.

One of the first things that people point to is that the Tigers under-performed their pythagorean record each of the last two years. Last year some may be attributed to a porous bullpen and defense, while 2003 maybe attributed to an inferior and inexperienced talent base all around.

The lack of talent in 2003 caused Trammell to employ whatever strategies at his disposal. A lack of offensive pop led to a league leading 92 sacrifice bunt attempts and 161 stolen base attempts which was third highest in the league. For better or for worse Trammell’s reputation as a small ball manager was born.

In 2004 the Tigers’ received an infusion of talent, and the result was a pretty solid offense. With hitters that could actually get on base consistently, Trammell was able to reduce his reliance on the sacrifice. He reduced his sacrifice attempts by a third down to 62. That still ranked as the 4th most in the AL, but at least he’s in the ballpark of the rest of the league now.

He also reduced his stolen base attempts by 30 to 136 which ranked 7th in the AL. Unfortunately that was probably still too often as they were 4th worst in their success rate trailing only KC, Chicago, and Cleveland (more on this later). What isn’t captured is how many of the Tigers’ caught stealings were the result of failed hit and runs. From watching, it seemed that the Tigers ran into outs with missed signs way more than I’d care for, but I can’t really say conclusively without data.

So it seems that Tram has small ball leanings, but a lot of the perception was cultivated when he was managing a team devoid of talent. What’s interesting is that he is one of the lesser small ballers in the AL Central. The table below shows where the AL Central managers rank within the American League.



Manager       SBA    SB%   SacA  Sac

Gardenhire     3      3     3     5

Wedge          4     12     6     6

Guillen        8     13     1     1

Trammell       7     11     4     3

Pena          10     14     6     8

Over the last few years the Twins have consistently outperformed their pythagorean projection while utiliizing small ball. On the other hand the Tigers have underperformed while using small ball. The big difference is the execution of the strategy. While the Twins ran quite a bit last year, they seperated themselves from the rest of the division by actually being successful. Once Ozzie Guillen fields his new speed and defense team it wouldn’t surprise me if he leads the league in SBA’s. Conversely, other teams were more successful than the Twins in converting sacrifice attempts, but seemed to fare worse overall. This makes sense because if you can successfully move the runner without giving up an out you’ll be ahead of the guys willing to concede the out.

I’m not trying to draw the conclusion that the Twins win because they steal bases well, or that Gardenhire is necessarily better than his Central counterparts. It is just an interesting look at what strategies have had success, albeit within in a very small sample.

Also, while Trammell is still probably a small ball manager, his reputation was largely developed during a season in which there were extenuating circumstances. His utilization of these strategies seeemed to decrease as he spent more time on the bench.

Other Stuff-
-On a related note, Trammell hardly used pitch outs last year. He let Pudge’s reputation deter the opponents running game. He only called 8 pitch outs last year, down from 28 in 2003. Only 59 runners tried to steal on Pudge, the fewest among full time catchers in the AL. Yet another way in that Pudge helped the Tigers. He helped eliminate the run game, and prevented his pitchers from having to waste pitches.
-I highly recommend picking up a copy of the 2005 Bill James Handbook. In the month I’ve had mine I’ve already worn the thing out and it has about a dozen bookmarks. It has a wealth of interesting stuff that you just won’t find anywhere else.
-If you enjoy women talking about sports make sure and read BatGirl and Blue Cats and Red Sox. Batgirl and her Batlings follow the ups and downs of the Twins from a completely subjective point of view. She leaves out the stats and makes baseball fun. Blue Cats and Red Sox has the travails of a ‘Boston Fan in Michigan’ as she celebrates her Red Sox and Patriots while mourning our Detroit kitties – and she gets points for being a UM student as well.

Uncategorized

Tigers oufield defense

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A few weeks back, I started looking at the Tigers’ defense through the work of David Pinto’s Probalistic Model of Range. Now that there seems to be a break in Tiger trades and signings, it is time to pick up where we left off. Baseball Musings has now published results for all the positions.

Here is a look at the Tigers’ right field situation last year:


            BIP   Acutal Outs    Pred. Outs  Outs per Season
Monroe     1242        110          103.79             22.5
Higginson  3035        224          216.42             11.3

Both Craig Monroe and Bobby Higginson were above average fielders according to PMR last year, and both saved significant outs above expected. The “Outs per Season” is the number of outs saved (positive) or cost (negative) based on 4500 BIP. Magglio Ordonez didn’t have the 1000 BIP to qualify, so we don’t know how he holds up in comparison. By reputation however, he is average to slightly below average. This may prove to be significant when we take a look at what might be happening in centerfield.


            BIP   Acutal Outs    Pred. Outs  Outs per Season
Logan      1179        117          119.19             -8.3
Sanchez    2082        178          200.73            -49.2

Nook Logan in limited time was essentially an average centerfielder (for 2004 the centerfielders as a group underperformed expectations, Logan was about typical). Sanchez on the other hand was one of the worst centerfielders in terms of range in the Majors. When you take into account that PMR only measures range, and doesn’t factor in arm stregnth or accuracy, Sanchez has to be one of the worst fielders in all baseball. Higginson and Monroe despite only having average speed managed to get to more than their share of balls, and they combine range with strong arms. If Ordonez has the range that is rumored, things could get scary on the right side of the outfield.

Over in left field…


            BIP   Acutal Outs    Pred. Outs  Outs per Season
Monroe     1369        102           99.95              6.8
White      1917        126          136.17            -23.9

Craig Monroe looks to be a pretty solid fielder in left field as well as right field. Meanwhile, Rondell White ranks near the bottom of the American League.

What PMR is telling us about the Tigers outfield next season, is that an outfield of Rondell White, Alex Sanchez, and Magglio Ordonez could lead to a ton of missed plays. It also bolsters the case for hanging onto Bobby Higginson and finding more playing time for Craig Monroe. Further, it shows that even exceptional speed doesn’t compensate for poor instincts or positioning.

Given that Ordonez will be playing right (his knee permitting), the Tigers’ best outfield configuration may be Craig Monroe in left with Higginson in center. Higginson’s above average range in right probably wouldn’t translate to above average range in center, but he should at least be an improvement over Alex Sanchez (especially when you factor in arms). Higginson and Sanchez post comparable slugging percentages, which is sad but true. However, Higginson gets on base at a better rate than Sanchez, and is less likely to get thrown out once he’s on.

To access all the data, or for more information on PMR check out these links and the ensuing discussions:
Leftfielders
Centerfielders
Rightfielders
PMR Explained for 2004
Creation of PMR

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Vegas and Farnsworth

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Okay, so the two have nothing in common. The Vegas comes in because I’ve spent the last two days there. The Farnsworth comes into play because I’ll finally have a chance to comment some more.

While I didn’t have much of a chance to hit the casions due to work, I did venture into the sports book at The Palms. In case you were curious, the Tigers are 50 to 1 to win the World Series, 25 to 1 to win the AL Pennant (the same as Oakland)but only 9 to 2 to win the AL Central. I only with I’d gotten out here prior to the Magglio Ordonez signing.

As for the Kyle Farnsworth trade, I’m still in favor of it. His home run prediliction should be diminished playing in the AL Central (except of course for US Cellular). It’s hard to get a statistical handle on Farnsworth because he’s been so up and down. Fortunately the one stat that has been consistent is a double digit K rate.

What I find odd is that Farnsworth is Dombrowski’s style of pitcher, a hard throwing power pitcher. However, he’s not Domrowski’s style of player. He doesn’t seem to be the solid, level headed clubhouse guy that Dombrowski seems to prefer. In fact, he’s the opposite of that. Plus, the Tigers have been trying to acquire younger talent instead of trading it away. Scott Moore and Bo Flowers aren’t top flight prospects, but with the dearth of position players in the minor league system it is a little surprising that the Tigers moved them. Combined with the Anderson Hernandez trade there are 4 players that the Tigers traded for a backup catcher and a reliver. I know that you have to give up something to get something, and I think the trades were fair value. However, it makes me think that this all building up to another move(s)

Farnsworth is slated to make just under $2 million this year before becoming a free agent. His addition will put the Tigers payroll at around $74 million (asuming that Ordonez signing bonus kicks in). This number could move based on the actual contracts that the 0-3 year guys eventually sign. Also, if Rondell White or any other veterans are traded this could move as well.

Uncategorized

Tigers get Farnsworth

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The Tigers bolstered their bullpen today by acquiring Kyle Farnsworth from the Cubs for Scott Moore, Bo Flowers, and Roberto Novoa. At first glance I like this move. Novoa showed some potential, but he probably won’t turn out to be more than Farnsworth is now. Moore is another former first round pick who won’t be helping the Tigers. He has struggled in the minors but is still young. Flowers is athletic, but I don’t know how much of a prospect he really is.

I don’t think the Tigers are done dealing though, either that or they have lowered expectations for some of their current bullpen arms. Perhaps Urbina won’t be ready to pitch due to the situation with his mother. Or maybe Fernando Rodney isn’t as far along as they hoped.

I’ll have to chew on this a little more, but for now I’ve got to run.

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It’s for the kids

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This is definitely my most uncomfortable post of the year. The one where I ask you guys to consider making a donation. The only thing that makes it easier is that the donation isn’t for me, it is for the Big Brothers Big Sisters of America. I’ll be participating again this year in their fundraiser, Bowl for Kids Sake, on March 6th at Merri-Bowl Lanes in Livonia.

I did this last year, and had a fair amount of success collecting donations. Please, nobody feel obligated in anyway to do this. However, if you’ve enjoyed the content here, and perhaps appreciate the fact that this site is completely free of advertisements, and have a couple bucks to spare, and are looking for a way to help out a worthwhile organization, and are looking for a tax deduction then this might be for you.

I’ve put a donation button over on the sidebar. It will take you to a Paypal page where you can make a donation. Unforutnately, BBBSA of Detroit doesn’t have a way to accept online donations at this time so it will be going to my Paypal account which I will then contribute everything to BBBSA.

Please don’t feel obligated in anyway, but any donations would certainly be appreciated.

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Welcoming Maggs

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The Tigers officially welcomed Magglio Ordonez today at Comerica Park. The terms reported in the AP were not discussed, so we’ll assume them to be accurate. One point was clarified and that was the “out clause” is only for the first year.

Some items of note from the presser:
-Boras indicated that the reason the Tigers were successful isn’t because they were offering the longest contract. They were just ahead of other teams in their research. I’m not sure if there were other bidders with extended contracts or not. Boras maybe helping save face for himself and the Tigers. Either way, all sides agreed that the Tigers were proactive in their research. They requested the medical information following the winter meetings. It was evaluated by team physician Dr. Anderson. Dr. Anderson also spoke with Ordonez’s physicians as well as performing the evaluation on Sunday. Ordonez also worked out in California for Tigers’ officials last week.

-The bone marrow edema was downplayed by both sides. It took 3 questions by Lynn Henning before it was mentioned, and even then the shock wave therapy wasn’t discussed.

-Mike Illitch and Ordonez seemed to really make a connection during their visit. Both sides said it was similar to the Pudge meeting last year. It leads me to believe that Illitch wasn’t worried about getting maximum value. He found a player that he liked. This player despite everything else will improve the team if he’s healthy. Illitch did what it took to get him. Value or no value, as a fan you’ve got to love that in an owner. Finally, to take care of that ‘if healthy’ part he has a GM that was able to get protection for the contract.

-Mr. I also brought up the fact that a year ago he made a commitment to Pudge Rodriguez to improve the team and that he felt he had to follow through on it.

-It sounds like Omar Infante was an ambassador for the club. He told Ordonez that the Tigers were a good team and that he should come play there. As the Venezuelan contingent grows in the clubhouse, maybe the Tigers can nab Santana when he becomes free?!

-DeWayne Wise was DFA’d to make room for Ordonez on the 40 man roster.

-Tram is projecting Ordonez to bat cleanup between Pudge and Dmitri Young. No surprise there.

-Ordonez: “I know we can win”

I still think the deal was for too much and too long, but I am excited to see the Tigers lineup in action. I also think Ordonez is right, the Tigers can win. I don’t know if they will, Minnesota is still the favorite. However the gap is closing. Second place could be a three team race and the Tigers should finish above .500 barring injuries.

While Ordonez will be facing pressure to perform well and live up to the terms of his contract, the Tiger under the most pressure this year will be Alan Trammell. Given Illitch’s investment, combined with the Tigers progress last year, he has to deliver a winning team.

Uncategorized

The Cost of Losing

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The Tigers have signed Magglio Ordonez to a 5 year, $75 million dollar contract.

According to CNNSI, here is how the contract breaks down

The 31-year-old Ordonez gets a $6 million signing bonus and a $6 million salary in 2005, meaning the Tigers’ exposure is $12 million.

His contract calls for a $15 million salary in 2006, $12 million in 2007, $15 million in 2008 and $18 million in 2009. Detroit has a $15 million option for 2010 with a $3 million buyout, and a $15 million option for 2011 with no buyout.

In addition, Ordonez’s salary in each of the option years would become guaranteed if he has 135 starts or 540 plate appearances in the previous season, or 270 starts or 1,080 plate appearances in the previous two seasons. If his 2010 salary becomes guaranteed under this provision, it would be at $18 million. The 2011 salary would be $15 million.

The good news is that the Tigers have only guaranteed $12 million in 2005. If his left knee acts up to the tune of 25 days on the DL in any season, the Tigers can void the deal. This protection is a key element in making the deal palatable.

I’m going to wait to comment further on this signing until I have a little longer to figure out what the Tigers were thinking.

First of all, as a fan right now I’m excited to add Ordonez to the Tigers lineup. The one thing about Ordonez that can’t be questioned is that he can flat out hit. Yes, his numbers may have been inflated a little from playing in US Cellular, but his road OPS is still .900. However, I’m stunned by the fact the Tigers are offering an average of $15 million a year over 5 years.

Ordonez made $14 million last year. He managed to warrant a raise despite only playing two months last year. Also, he is past his peak seasons. Even if his performance over the last few years (last year excluded) is worthy of $15 million a year, the chances that he continues that production as he ages in a bigger ball park is slim.

I know that the Tigers have to overpay and over commit to free agents as a penalty for their performance for the last decade (“the decade of crapulence”). Even with that context, this contract seems excessive. In other words they seemed to have overpaid even by their standards. I just don’t know what other teams were even in the neighborhood of a 4 to 5 year deal at any amount of money.

I know that Dombrowski isn’t an idiot and I have faith that he can restore the Tigers to a winning organization. While the Tigers made aggressive offers during the off-season, they managed to avoid ridiculous contracts that they would regret in the future. Now however, that strategy seems to have been abandoned. For that reason alone I have to believe this was much more an Illitch signing than a Dombrowski one, and for that I respect Illitch’s desire to win. Last year at this time I was worried that Pudge’s contract would limit what the Tigers could do in the future. To Illitch’s credit that wasn’t an issue this year as he committed $88 million to free agents.

I know it is fruitless to look at other signings this year as a point of reference, because the Tigers still aren’t playing on a level playing field. However, it is still disappointing to look at the Beltre’s and Beltran’s and wonder if 5 and 75 isn’t too much for a 31 year old coming off a severe injury, then how much was too much for younger players at positions of need in their primes.

Are the Tigers a better team now than they were without Ordonez? I don’t think you could argue that it isn’t. However, will the Tigers regret this contract two to three years from now? I don’t have a crystal ball, but my inclination is yes.

Uncategorized

Displacement

6 Comments

Without any news happening, and without me having the time to do any analysis I decided to explore the question, “So if the Tigers do sign Magglio Ordonez, which current Tiger gets left out?”

In his column on Sunday Lynn Henning indicated that the Tigers would most likely release Bobby Higginson. I’ll have to admit that it was my first inclination as well. However, I’ve reconsidered.

I don’t really see an advantage to dumping Higginson from the Tigers standpoint. I know they’ll need to free up a spot on the 40 man roster if Ordonez comes. If it were up to me, the person that will prove the least valuable to the Tigers this season is Fernando Vina. I know once the season started they could move Vina to the 60 day DL, but he’s not going to play this season. I’m sure there is hope that he’ll officially retire, but let him go and just eat the $3 million. It will be substantially cheaper than the $8.2 million they’d still owe Higginson.

Now releasing Vina doesn’t really free up a congested outfield. For better or worse, Alex Sanchez will be the centerfielder (barring a tremendous spring by Curtis Granderson). I think everyone agrees that Craig Monroe needs to get regular at-bats and play all 3 outfield positions (I know, he really is a corner outfielder but he can fill in at center). Marcus Thames is a cheap insurance policy. So it comes down to Higginson or Rondell White.

Higginson is by far the better defender. Last year UZR had him rated among the top 3 rightfielders. In the event that Ordonez knee isn’t up to a full season in right field (especially considering he’ll be next to Sanchez) Higginson’s defense would be nice to have around. On the other hand, White is relegated to playing left field.

Last year White had 11 Win Shares to Higginson’s 13, and it wasn’t a one season fluke. Over the last 3 years Higginson has 34 Win Shares and White has 32. Really, they are pretty comparable players. Higginson’s power is gone but he still posted a .353 OPB last year.

There is one other factor to consider. If Higginson were gone, the Tigers only left handed hitting outfielder would be Alex Sanchez. Given Trammell’s penchant for platooning and playing matchups I’d be surprised if they went into the season without that option. With the exchange of Inge for Munson at third base, that would just be an additional lefty option not available.

I’m not advocating releasing White, especially since he may have some trade value. I actually really like White and he sounds like a good clubhouse guy. I also understand the animosity towards Higginson. His offensive production hasn’t been in sync with his contract, and not with a starting corner outfielder. However, given that the contract isn’t going anywhere that issue needs to be set aside. Higginson brings a little more to the table than White.

Other Stuff:
-Happy 4th birthday to my son Billy!
-Miscellaneous stat from the Bill James Handbook: Bobby Higginson took 62.5% of the pitches he saw last year. That’s 3rd highest in the AL. I’m not saying this means anything, just that it borders on interesting.

Defense, Statistics

Keying in on the Keystone

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David Pinto at Baseball Musings is continuing to publish the results of his Probabilistic Model of Range. He has churned out the positional data for shortstops and second basemen. Carlos Guillen looks decent, and Omar Infante doesn’t look too bad.


              
Guillen       Infante

3597          2710

Act. Outs         490           305

Pred. Outs     496.37        319.00

Act. DER         .136          .113

Pred. DER        .138          .118

Among their peers, Guillen was in the top third (and substantially ahead of Edgar Renteria, the guy the Tigers were looking to sign and displace Guillen) while Infante was right about in the middle. The table was compiled only of players that had 1000 BIP.

Interestingly in Guillen’s case, he had the highest actual DER of all shortstops. Also, his predicted DER of .138 was among the highest so for some reason the balls hit to/near him were more fieldable than most other players. I’m hesitant to make the leap that the Tigers pitchers manage to induce a high amount of weakly hit balls (at least to shortstop), but I don’t have any other explanations either.

While Infante’s numbers don’t really do much for me, it was only his first season with significant playing time at second. He’s also young and probably still has room to grow where it comes to positioning and familiarity with opposing hitters.

Over the course of a full season I’m assuming 4400 BIP for short and 4000 BIP) the two combine to be 28 outs below their predicted range.

Over the course of a full season (assuming 4400 BIP as a full season) the two combine to be 31 outs below their predicted range

I’m curious to see what Pinto’s numbers will show for the Tigers’ 3rd base situation, but I’m not sure that Brandon Inge will have the 1000 BIP to qualify.

For more background on the PMR, check out David’s other posts here and here.

UPDATE: Pinto just posted the centerfield ratings and he has further validated his system: Alex Sanchez rannks near the bottom.

Other Stuff
-I did some updating over on the sidebar. Added are some new Detroit sports links, and I cleaned up some defunct sites. I also removed the section for the 2004 preview and anchored a couple of interesting/highlight type items. So far that includes my interview with Dombrowski and a table that has Tigers’ salaries for 2005 (so far).

-Ordonez watch: Apparently the Cubs are interested and Ordonez will work out for them in California. Will he actually work out or is Boras trying to force the Tigers hand? Or is Magglio just trying to get somebody else to offer up multiple years like the Tigers have done. Did Boras hold off on these workouts all along so that he could get maximum value for his other slugging outfielders (Drew and Beltran) by effectively shrinking the talent pool knowing that he could always get a desperate team to cough up big bucks and years on the eve of spring training? It’s stuff like this that hurts my head but it is par for the course with Scott Boras. The level of suspicion that surrounds any Boras negotiation is almost comical, but well earned.