Tigers oufield defense

A few weeks back, I started looking at the Tigers’ defense through the work of David Pinto’s Probalistic Model of Range. Now that there seems to be a break in Tiger trades and signings, it is time to pick up where we left off. Baseball Musings has now published results for all the positions.

Here is a look at the Tigers’ right field situation last year:


BIP Acutal Outs Pred. Outs Outs per Season
Monroe 1242 110 103.79 22.5
Higginson 3035 224 216.42 11.3

Both Craig Monroe and Bobby Higginson were above average fielders according to PMR last year, and both saved significant outs above expected. The “Outs per Season” is the number of outs saved (positive) or cost (negative) based on 4500 BIP. Magglio Ordonez didn’t have the 1000 BIP to qualify, so we don’t know how he holds up in comparison. By reputation however, he is average to slightly below average. This may prove to be significant when we take a look at what might be happening in centerfield.


BIP Acutal Outs Pred. Outs Outs per Season
Logan 1179 117 119.19 -8.3
Sanchez 2082 178 200.73 -49.2

Nook Logan in limited time was essentially an average centerfielder (for 2004 the centerfielders as a group underperformed expectations, Logan was about typical). Sanchez on the other hand was one of the worst centerfielders in terms of range in the Majors. When you take into account that PMR only measures range, and doesn’t factor in arm stregnth or accuracy, Sanchez has to be one of the worst fielders in all baseball. Higginson and Monroe despite only having average speed managed to get to more than their share of balls, and they combine range with strong arms. If Ordonez has the range that is rumored, things could get scary on the right side of the outfield.

Over in left field…


BIP Acutal Outs Pred. Outs Outs per Season
Monroe 1369 102 99.95 6.8
White 1917 126 136.17 -23.9

Craig Monroe looks to be a pretty solid fielder in left field as well as right field. Meanwhile, Rondell White ranks near the bottom of the American League.

What PMR is telling us about the Tigers outfield next season, is that an outfield of Rondell White, Alex Sanchez, and Magglio Ordonez could lead to a ton of missed plays. It also bolsters the case for hanging onto Bobby Higginson and finding more playing time for Craig Monroe. Further, it shows that even exceptional speed doesn’t compensate for poor instincts or positioning.

Given that Ordonez will be playing right (his knee permitting), the Tigers’ best outfield configuration may be Craig Monroe in left with Higginson in center. Higginson’s above average range in right probably wouldn’t translate to above average range in center, but he should at least be an improvement over Alex Sanchez (especially when you factor in arms). Higginson and Sanchez post comparable slugging percentages, which is sad but true. However, Higginson gets on base at a better rate than Sanchez, and is less likely to get thrown out once he’s on.

To access all the data, or for more information on PMR check out these links and the ensuing discussions:
Leftfielders
Centerfielders
Rightfielders
PMR Explained for 2004
Creation of PMR

Vegas and Farnsworth

Okay, so the two have nothing in common. The Vegas comes in because I’ve spent the last two days there. The Farnsworth comes into play because I’ll finally have a chance to comment some more.

While I didn’t have much of a chance to hit the casions due to work, I did venture into the sports book at The Palms. In case you were curious, the Tigers are 50 to 1 to win the World Series, 25 to 1 to win the AL Pennant (the same as Oakland)but only 9 to 2 to win the AL Central. I only with I’d gotten out here prior to the Magglio Ordonez signing.

As for the Kyle Farnsworth trade, I’m still in favor of it. His home run prediliction should be diminished playing in the AL Central (except of course for US Cellular). It’s hard to get a statistical handle on Farnsworth because he’s been so up and down. Fortunately the one stat that has been consistent is a double digit K rate.

What I find odd is that Farnsworth is Dombrowski’s style of pitcher, a hard throwing power pitcher. However, he’s not Domrowski’s style of player. He doesn’t seem to be the solid, level headed clubhouse guy that Dombrowski seems to prefer. In fact, he’s the opposite of that. Plus, the Tigers have been trying to acquire younger talent instead of trading it away. Scott Moore and Bo Flowers aren’t top flight prospects, but with the dearth of position players in the minor league system it is a little surprising that the Tigers moved them. Combined with the Anderson Hernandez trade there are 4 players that the Tigers traded for a backup catcher and a reliver. I know that you have to give up something to get something, and I think the trades were fair value. However, it makes me think that this all building up to another move(s)

Farnsworth is slated to make just under $2 million this year before becoming a free agent. His addition will put the Tigers payroll at around $74 million (asuming that Ordonez signing bonus kicks in). This number could move based on the actual contracts that the 0-3 year guys eventually sign. Also, if Rondell White or any other veterans are traded this could move as well.

Tigers get Farnsworth

The Tigers bolstered their bullpen today by acquiring Kyle Farnsworth from the Cubs for Scott Moore, Bo Flowers, and Roberto Novoa. At first glance I like this move. Novoa showed some potential, but he probably won’t turn out to be more than Farnsworth is now. Moore is another former first round pick who won’t be helping the Tigers. He has struggled in the minors but is still young. Flowers is athletic, but I don’t know how much of a prospect he really is.

I don’t think the Tigers are done dealing though, either that or they have lowered expectations for some of their current bullpen arms. Perhaps Urbina won’t be ready to pitch due to the situation with his mother. Or maybe Fernando Rodney isn’t as far along as they hoped.

I’ll have to chew on this a little more, but for now I’ve got to run.

It’s for the kids

This is definitely my most uncomfortable post of the year. The one where I ask you guys to consider making a donation. The only thing that makes it easier is that the donation isn’t for me, it is for the Big Brothers Big Sisters of America. I’ll be participating again this year in their fundraiser, Bowl for Kids Sake, on March 6th at Merri-Bowl Lanes in Livonia.

I did this last year, and had a fair amount of success collecting donations. Please, nobody feel obligated in anyway to do this. However, if you’ve enjoyed the content here, and perhaps appreciate the fact that this site is completely free of advertisements, and have a couple bucks to spare, and are looking for a way to help out a worthwhile organization, and are looking for a tax deduction then this might be for you.

I’ve put a donation button over on the sidebar. It will take you to a Paypal page where you can make a donation. Unforutnately, BBBSA of Detroit doesn’t have a way to accept online donations at this time so it will be going to my Paypal account which I will then contribute everything to BBBSA.

Please don’t feel obligated in anyway, but any donations would certainly be appreciated.

Welcoming Maggs

The Tigers officially welcomed Magglio Ordonez today at Comerica Park. The terms reported in the AP were not discussed, so we’ll assume them to be accurate. One point was clarified and that was the “out clause” is only for the first year.

Some items of note from the presser:
-Boras indicated that the reason the Tigers were successful isn’t because they were offering the longest contract. They were just ahead of other teams in their research. I’m not sure if there were other bidders with extended contracts or not. Boras maybe helping save face for himself and the Tigers. Either way, all sides agreed that the Tigers were proactive in their research. They requested the medical information following the winter meetings. It was evaluated by team physician Dr. Anderson. Dr. Anderson also spoke with Ordonez’s physicians as well as performing the evaluation on Sunday. Ordonez also worked out in California for Tigers’ officials last week.

-The bone marrow edema was downplayed by both sides. It took 3 questions by Lynn Henning before it was mentioned, and even then the shock wave therapy wasn’t discussed.

-Mike Illitch and Ordonez seemed to really make a connection during their visit. Both sides said it was similar to the Pudge meeting last year. It leads me to believe that Illitch wasn’t worried about getting maximum value. He found a player that he liked. This player despite everything else will improve the team if he’s healthy. Illitch did what it took to get him. Value or no value, as a fan you’ve got to love that in an owner. Finally, to take care of that ‘if healthy’ part he has a GM that was able to get protection for the contract.

-Mr. I also brought up the fact that a year ago he made a commitment to Pudge Rodriguez to improve the team and that he felt he had to follow through on it.

-It sounds like Omar Infante was an ambassador for the club. He told Ordonez that the Tigers were a good team and that he should come play there. As the Venezuelan contingent grows in the clubhouse, maybe the Tigers can nab Santana when he becomes free?!

-DeWayne Wise was DFA’d to make room for Ordonez on the 40 man roster.

-Tram is projecting Ordonez to bat cleanup between Pudge and Dmitri Young. No surprise there.

-Ordonez: “I know we can win”

I still think the deal was for too much and too long, but I am excited to see the Tigers lineup in action. I also think Ordonez is right, the Tigers can win. I don’t know if they will, Minnesota is still the favorite. However the gap is closing. Second place could be a three team race and the Tigers should finish above .500 barring injuries.

While Ordonez will be facing pressure to perform well and live up to the terms of his contract, the Tiger under the most pressure this year will be Alan Trammell. Given Illitch’s investment, combined with the Tigers progress last year, he has to deliver a winning team.

The Cost of Losing

The Tigers have signed Magglio Ordonez to a 5 year, $75 million dollar contract.

According to CNNSI, here is how the contract breaks down

The 31-year-old Ordonez gets a $6 million signing bonus and a $6 million salary in 2005, meaning the Tigers’ exposure is $12 million.

His contract calls for a $15 million salary in 2006, $12 million in 2007, $15 million in 2008 and $18 million in 2009. Detroit has a $15 million option for 2010 with a $3 million buyout, and a $15 million option for 2011 with no buyout.

In addition, Ordonez’s salary in each of the option years would become guaranteed if he has 135 starts or 540 plate appearances in the previous season, or 270 starts or 1,080 plate appearances in the previous two seasons. If his 2010 salary becomes guaranteed under this provision, it would be at $18 million. The 2011 salary would be $15 million.

The good news is that the Tigers have only guaranteed $12 million in 2005. If his left knee acts up to the tune of 25 days on the DL in any season, the Tigers can void the deal. This protection is a key element in making the deal palatable.

I’m going to wait to comment further on this signing until I have a little longer to figure out what the Tigers were thinking.

First of all, as a fan right now I’m excited to add Ordonez to the Tigers lineup. The one thing about Ordonez that can’t be questioned is that he can flat out hit. Yes, his numbers may have been inflated a little from playing in US Cellular, but his road OPS is still .900. However, I’m stunned by the fact the Tigers are offering an average of $15 million a year over 5 years.

Ordonez made $14 million last year. He managed to warrant a raise despite only playing two months last year. Also, he is past his peak seasons. Even if his performance over the last few years (last year excluded) is worthy of $15 million a year, the chances that he continues that production as he ages in a bigger ball park is slim.

I know that the Tigers have to overpay and over commit to free agents as a penalty for their performance for the last decade (“the decade of crapulence”). Even with that context, this contract seems excessive. In other words they seemed to have overpaid even by their standards. I just don’t know what other teams were even in the neighborhood of a 4 to 5 year deal at any amount of money.

I know that Dombrowski isn’t an idiot and I have faith that he can restore the Tigers to a winning organization. While the Tigers made aggressive offers during the off-season, they managed to avoid ridiculous contracts that they would regret in the future. Now however, that strategy seems to have been abandoned. For that reason alone I have to believe this was much more an Illitch signing than a Dombrowski one, and for that I respect Illitch’s desire to win. Last year at this time I was worried that Pudge’s contract would limit what the Tigers could do in the future. To Illitch’s credit that wasn’t an issue this year as he committed $88 million to free agents.

I know it is fruitless to look at other signings this year as a point of reference, because the Tigers still aren’t playing on a level playing field. However, it is still disappointing to look at the Beltre’s and Beltran’s and wonder if 5 and 75 isn’t too much for a 31 year old coming off a severe injury, then how much was too much for younger players at positions of need in their primes.

Are the Tigers a better team now than they were without Ordonez? I don’t think you could argue that it isn’t. However, will the Tigers regret this contract two to three years from now? I don’t have a crystal ball, but my inclination is yes.

Displacement

Without any news happening, and without me having the time to do any analysis I decided to explore the question, “So if the Tigers do sign Magglio Ordonez, which current Tiger gets left out?”

In his column on Sunday Lynn Henning indicated that the Tigers would most likely release Bobby Higginson. I’ll have to admit that it was my first inclination as well. However, I’ve reconsidered.

I don’t really see an advantage to dumping Higginson from the Tigers standpoint. I know they’ll need to free up a spot on the 40 man roster if Ordonez comes. If it were up to me, the person that will prove the least valuable to the Tigers this season is Fernando Vina. I know once the season started they could move Vina to the 60 day DL, but he’s not going to play this season. I’m sure there is hope that he’ll officially retire, but let him go and just eat the $3 million. It will be substantially cheaper than the $8.2 million they’d still owe Higginson.

Now releasing Vina doesn’t really free up a congested outfield. For better or worse, Alex Sanchez will be the centerfielder (barring a tremendous spring by Curtis Granderson). I think everyone agrees that Craig Monroe needs to get regular at-bats and play all 3 outfield positions (I know, he really is a corner outfielder but he can fill in at center). Marcus Thames is a cheap insurance policy. So it comes down to Higginson or Rondell White.

Higginson is by far the better defender. Last year UZR had him rated among the top 3 rightfielders. In the event that Ordonez knee isn’t up to a full season in right field (especially considering he’ll be next to Sanchez) Higginson’s defense would be nice to have around. On the other hand, White is relegated to playing left field.

Last year White had 11 Win Shares to Higginson’s 13, and it wasn’t a one season fluke. Over the last 3 years Higginson has 34 Win Shares and White has 32. Really, they are pretty comparable players. Higginson’s power is gone but he still posted a .353 OPB last year.

There is one other factor to consider. If Higginson were gone, the Tigers only left handed hitting outfielder would be Alex Sanchez. Given Trammell’s penchant for platooning and playing matchups I’d be surprised if they went into the season without that option. With the exchange of Inge for Munson at third base, that would just be an additional lefty option not available.

I’m not advocating releasing White, especially since he may have some trade value. I actually really like White and he sounds like a good clubhouse guy. I also understand the animosity towards Higginson. His offensive production hasn’t been in sync with his contract, and not with a starting corner outfielder. However, given that the contract isn’t going anywhere that issue needs to be set aside. Higginson brings a little more to the table than White.

Other Stuff:
-Happy 4th birthday to my son Billy!
-Miscellaneous stat from the Bill James Handbook: Bobby Higginson took 62.5% of the pitches he saw last year. That’s 3rd highest in the AL. I’m not saying this means anything, just that it borders on interesting.

Keying in on the Keystone

David Pinto at Baseball Musings is continuing to publish the results of his Probabilistic Model of Range. He has churned out the positional data for shortstops and second basemen. Carlos Guillen looks decent, and Omar Infante doesn’t look too bad.


Guillen Infante
3597 2710
Act. Outs 490 305
Pred. Outs 496.37 319.00
Act. DER .136 .113
Pred. DER .138 .118

Among their peers, Guillen was in the top third (and substantially ahead of Edgar Renteria, the guy the Tigers were looking to sign and displace Guillen) while Infante was right about in the middle. The table was compiled only of players that had 1000 BIP.

Interestingly in Guillen’s case, he had the highest actual DER of all shortstops. Also, his predicted DER of .138 was among the highest so for some reason the balls hit to/near him were more fieldable than most other players. I’m hesitant to make the leap that the Tigers pitchers manage to induce a high amount of weakly hit balls (at least to shortstop), but I don’t have any other explanations either.

While Infante’s numbers don’t really do much for me, it was only his first season with significant playing time at second. He’s also young and probably still has room to grow where it comes to positioning and familiarity with opposing hitters.

Over the course of a full season I’m assuming 4400 BIP for short and 4000 BIP) the two combine to be 28 outs below their predicted range.

Over the course of a full season (assuming 4400 BIP as a full season) the two combine to be 31 outs below their predicted range

I’m curious to see what Pinto’s numbers will show for the Tigers’ 3rd base situation, but I’m not sure that Brandon Inge will have the 1000 BIP to qualify.

For more background on the PMR, check out David’s other posts here and here.

UPDATE: Pinto just posted the centerfield ratings and he has further validated his system: Alex Sanchez rannks near the bottom.

Other Stuff
-I did some updating over on the sidebar. Added are some new Detroit sports links, and I cleaned up some defunct sites. I also removed the section for the 2004 preview and anchored a couple of interesting/highlight type items. So far that includes my interview with Dombrowski and a table that has Tigers’ salaries for 2005 (so far).

-Ordonez watch: Apparently the Cubs are interested and Ordonez will work out for them in California. Will he actually work out or is Boras trying to force the Tigers hand? Or is Magglio just trying to get somebody else to offer up multiple years like the Tigers have done. Did Boras hold off on these workouts all along so that he could get maximum value for his other slugging outfielders (Drew and Beltran) by effectively shrinking the talent pool knowing that he could always get a desperate team to cough up big bucks and years on the eve of spring training? It’s stuff like this that hurts my head but it is par for the course with Scott Boras. The level of suspicion that surrounds any Boras negotiation is almost comical, but well earned.

Magg Wheels

With the Tigers interest in Magglio Ordonez, and the confusion over the status of his knee, I wanted to at least get a handle on the chronology of the injury. Below are excerpts from Baseball Prospectus’ Under the Knife report. UTK is written by Will Carroll who has turned himself into the source for baseball injury information.

May 20th

Willie Harris left Wednesday’s game after a collision with Magglio Ordonez. Ordonez also left the game. No report on either player at deadline


May 27th

Ordonez has a moderate strain of his left calf. The injury has been connected to his collision with Willie Harris last week, but it’s unclear if the injury is the result of the collision or a compensation injury after it. Ordonez isn’t a candidate for the DL at this point, but watch his power numbers; if they drop off, it might be a sign that he’s unable to block with his front leg.


June 3rd

I’m not sure if he’s really underrated or just underexposed, but either way he’s a heck of a ballplayer when healthy. Ordonez was sent for a second opinion from Dr. Lewis Yocum on Wednesday. The results must not have looked good since trainer Herm Schneider opened up the possibility of surgery. Ordonez is not yet on the DL, but a retro move is likely. The White Sox had been very patient, hoping that Ordonez could avoid the List, but even if he can avoid surgery he’s going to need the recovery time.

June 4th

Oh…Magglio Ordonez. That’s a different story. He’s the best player on a division-leading team, so news that he’s likely to head under the knife is never a good thing. Ordonez has a significant problem that instead of being his calf is now being reported as a meniscal tear. This would make the pain in his calf something radiating from an entrapped nerve, called “referred pain.” This type of pain is often extremely difficult to diagnose and would certainly explain the confusion of the last few days. If surgery is called for, Ordonez would have it immediately on Friday with team doctors. The rehab would likely take four-to-six weeks, but an All-Star break return looks possible.

June 28th

Ordonez is a few weeks away from returning after knee surgery, but it’s a predictable return.

July 8th

The good news for the Sox is that they will soon get their best player back on the field. Magglio Ordonez will take a quick, low-minor rehab assignment during the ASB and is expected back when the team begins playing again.

July 26th

Bone marrow edema isn’t a diagnosis heard every day. In baseball, it’s now a singular event, afflicting Magglio Ordonez, who just returned from knee surgery. Also called “transient osteoporosis,” the edema is not just a short-term problem for the Sox’ outfielder, it’s also bad in the long-term; BME is a predictor of serious arthritis, gait imbalances, and increased risk for fractures near the affected bones. It’s not good for the White Sox, for Ordonez, or Ordonez’s agent, but it’s not life-threatening, as some have feared. It could be managed in a way that could allow Ordonez back on the field, but as there is nothing with which to compare this, I have no way of putting a timeline on it.

September 23rd

It’s hard to tell what is medical fact and what is negotiation tactic in the case of Magglio Ordonez. The complicating factor of impending free agency gives both parties–player/agent and team–reason to present their spin rather than the facts. Worse, Ordonez’s condition is one that has not only not been seen in baseball, the doctors and trainers with whom I’ve spoken haven’t seen it in sports. So, we’re dealing with an unknown but potentially serious condition, a rehabbing knee that is months behind schedule, and contentious salary negotiations in their last weeks. In other words, absent a miracle, even my best sources really don’t know what the future holds for Ordonez. This is a classic “buyer beware” situation with upside.

September 24

The he-said/he-said continued between Magglio Ordonez and White Sox GM Ken Williams. As I stated yesterday, we’re dealing with a contentious negotiation, a GM who many have speculated is on the hot seat, and a player dealing with an injury that has not been seen in baseball. Everything must be taken in context, though there is little to give us that needed context. Ordonez asserts that he is healthy, but until he hits the field at some point and demonstrates this, we simply cannot know. Ordonez’s comments must give some optimistic spin to what we know; again, we just don’t have enough information. I hope to have more substantial information on this early next week.

October 19th

Sources with medical knowledge of the Magglio Ordonez situation tell me that Ordonez’s knee is neither as bad nor as good as current news would have you believe. The problem was finally given a solid diagnosis, which includes a second meniscal tear and a reason for the bone edema, giving him a good treatment plan. Ordonez won’t be 100% in December as suggested, though there’s reason to believe that he could be ready for spring training without restriction


November 16th

Your guess is as good as mine. Assurances from agents don’t comfort me much, so until I see Ordonez run, I’ll treat him as injured. This is the ultimate risk for a team: a Scott Boras client with an injury that hasn’t been seen in professional sports. Healthy, he’s an elite level player. I think a bold GM will be rewarded by signing Ordonez.


December 2nd

Knee surgery led to a bone marrow edema, an injury not often seen, let alone seen in baseball players. A second surgery, performed in Austria, has reportedly cleared up the problem. Knee surgery is nearly routine now, so any complication such as the edema is rare. Ordonez was unable to return and now faces questions about his ability to return to his previous performance level. That makes teams reluctant to sign big checks.
Ordonez is reported to have a workout planned for teams during the winter meetings. If he can perform normal baseball activities, there’s little reason to believe he won’t return to his previous levels. Even if he’s not fully healed now, he still has months to go before he needs to be on the field. Add in that Ordonez was not a speed player or rangy outfielder prior to the injury, and the effect is minimal. While knee injuries do have a tendency to recur and need occasional maintenance, there’s no reason to believe that, even if surgery became necessary, the edema or other complications would arise again. A team would be smart to get Ordonez in a room prior to the workouts; if he can walk normally now, sign him. Sometimes you don’t need all the information, just enough to make an informed decision.


December 9th

His knee injuries have been documented both here and elsewhere. About all we don’t know is how he is. A planned workout by Ordonez in Anaheim has been scrapped because Scott Boras feels he’s close enough to a deal that the workout is unnecessary. Enough people have seen the medical records that some team is likely to try to make a move. This is a deal that could well happen this weekend.

January 24th

After a winter of signal silence, facts are finally starting to come out about Magglio Ordonez’s health status. Ordonez had a second knee surgery in Austria, but only secondary to sound-wave treatments on his damaged knee. While the surgery was routine, the sound-wave therapy is controversial. The treatment, similar to those used on kidney stones and plantar fasciitis, is not approved for use in the U.S. Despite reports that his Austrian physician has signed off on Ordonez to return to activity, he has still not yet worked out for any team. I remain hopeful, but he’s a sure red-flag type until he demonstrates he’s healthy.

In summary, it started with a collision. Leg pain prompted further examination where a meniscus tear was identified. Ordonez underwent surgery in June to correct the problem. Typically rehab for this type of procedure is 4 to 6 weeks. All reports are in agreement up to this point.

Various reports indicate that the bone marrow edema was a side effect of the surgery. On 1270AM Scott Boras stated that the edema was the result of Ordonez’s aggressive rehab schedule compounded by the fact that there was another undetected meniscus tear. Boras went onto explain that Ordonez traveled to Austria to see Wolfgang Schaden, and that Schaden repaired the meniscus (Boras equated it to going to the dentist). Boras then said that the edema resolved itself.

Other reports by people who aren’t Ordonez’s agent say that while there was another tear, the reason for the trip was to receive the controversial shock treatment for the edema.

I wish I could tell you more about what the prospects are for a player with bone marrow edema. Unfortunately as Carroll documented there is nobody to compare him to. Studies at Johns Hopkins have indicated that BME is a predictor for osteoarthritis. Other than that I can’t tell you a whole lot.

Ordonez…tempering expectations

While I took a look at Ordonez back in December, with the Tigers recent interest in him, I decided to take a second look. At the time, I thought he’d be a decent gamble if the Tigers could work out a fair deal and protect themselves in the event the knee becomes a chronic problem. However, after a closer look I think the knee might not be the biggest cause for concern.

There is no denying that Ordonez has been a great hitter thus far in his career, and until this past season he has been healthy. He’s a perennial .300 hitter, 30 homer, 100 RBI guy. This career OPS+ is certainly impressive. However, it is important to remember the park that Ordonez has done most of his damage. US Cellular is the easiest park in the majors to hit home runs in. Using park factors from Bill James 2005 Handbook, from 2002-2004 it was 31% easier to hit home runs in US Cellular than a typical park. During that same span Ordonez has hit 60% of his homers in his home park, and his OPS is 83 points higher at home.

Now transfer that production over to Comerica park. A place where it is 14% harder to hit homers than your typical park. It just wouldn’t be realistic to expect Ordonez to meet his career production.

The other factor is that Ordonez is past his peak seasons. I’m not saying that he is past the point of producing, but a dropoff due to age wouldn’t be out of the ordinary.

For fun, I went to Baseball Reference and took advantage of their similarity scores. I looked at the 10 most similar players to Ordonez through age 29. (I used 29 instead of 30 because last season wasn’t really representative of his production). I then looked at how those same players did from age 31 on. I’ve consolidated the information into the table below:
Comp Table

Of the 6 comp players who have retired, they average out to 4 years and an OPS+ of 104. Dave Parker went on to play 10 more years, but aside from a sensational season at age 34 (148 OPS+) he was basically an above average player. Tim Salmon has continued to be productive, albeit inconsistently. Raul Mondesi is well, Raul Mondesi. This doesn’t mean that Ordonez will follow the same path, but it does paint a discouraging picture.

In all fairness, if you take a look at the comps for the most similar players through age 30, things look better for Ordonez. A handful of the players change, and among those that have retired they average 6 years and an OPS+ of 112. Larry Walker also gets added to the list, and he would definitely boost the average production of the group.

I’m not against signing Ordonez. However, given the fact that Boras asking price (thanks to MotownSports for the link)seems to be based on a level of production built in a very hitter friendly park it seems that he will be too expensive. It sounds like he is looking in the neighborhood of $50 million. Given Dombrowski’s reluctance to hurt the team with ridiculous contracts I’d be surprised if Dombrowski would sign him at that price. This is especially true because they won’t be able to insure him given his knee complications.

Odds are…Tigers defense is poor

I wasn’t planning on writing about the Tigers’ poor defense, but then David Pinto published his Probabalistic Model of Range for 2004. I love fresh stats, and this will dovetail nicely with the defense independent discussion from last week.

Pinto’s stats are compiled by looking at play by play data and measuring how likely it is that given ball will be turned into an out. He looks at the direction the ball was hit, the type of hit (grounder, flyball, linedrive, bunt), how hard it was hit, the park, and the handedness of the hitter and pitcher. Pinto’s method is very similar to Mitchel Lichtman’s Ultimate Zone Rating which I used extensively in my defensive preview last year. Lichtman went an additional step and expressed a player’s defensive contribution in terms of runs. Unfortunately for us (fortunately for Lichtman) he’s working for the Cardinals now and won’t be publishing his results.

The Probalistic Model shows the following totals for the Tigers

Balls-in-play: 4524
Acutal Outs: 3091
Defensive Efficiency: .683
Predicted Outs: 3169.2
Predicted DER: .701

The gap between the Tigers actual DER and predicted DER was the 4th worst in the majors. The result is that the Tigers missed out on converting 78 balls-in-play into outs. The pitchers are the real losers in this because innings get extended, run likelihood increases, and so does workload. And it’s not just a matter of pitchers having to face an additional 78 hitters. Considering that 64.9% of the batters against reached base (this includes the non balls in play as well), that means that Tigers pitchers faced an additional 120 batters over the course of the season.

Now hopefully I didn’t just mess up all those calculations and I don’t look like an idiot. Regardless, this just helps to support the commonly held belief that the Tigers defense is below average. The mainstream media typically point to errors and fielding percentage which are horrible measures of defense, but the Tigers were so far behind the rest of the league in those stats they still illustrate the point. It also meshes nicely with Jaffe’s dERA calculations which show that as a team the Tigers allowed 30 more runs than would be expected.

Here are some other defense related Tiger stats:
From the Hardball Times Baseball Annual:
-The Tigers line drive allowed percentage is 17.5% against a league average of 18.2%. This is signifcant because line drives are the type of ball in play most likely to turn into a hit.
-The Tigers groundball/flyball ratio is 1.25 against a league average of 1.15.
-The Tigers had 144 errors last year and 48.5% were throwing errors. The league average is 46.5% of errors are throwing errors.
-From a catching standpoint, the Tigers caught stealing rate was 37% against a league average of 32%. Pudge however only threw out 29% of runners while Brandon Inge threw out 38%. However Pudge’s reputation kept runners from trying to steal on him. With Pudge behind the plate runners tried to steal only .48 times per game. With Inge behind the plate they were trying 1.38 times per game.

Other Stuff
-Happy 4th Birthday to Tigers Central. Ryan and his crew do a great job over there.
-I received a bunch of emails from different website operators who want me to link to them. I’ve read your emails, I just haven’t had a chance to incorporate your links yet.

Dean Palmer among Non Roster Invitees

The Tigers have invited 19 players to spring training this year and it’s an interesting mix of guys trying to stick with a major league team, prospects, and some familiar faces. Most surprising among those is Dean Palmer who retired last year. Another familiar face is Mike Rivera who came up through the Tigers organization and was traded to San Diego.

The list of prospects invited includes Tony Giarratano, Mike Rabelo, Maxim St. Pierre, and Jack Hannahan. (I know that in the case of some of these guys I’m using the term prospect loosely)

Other invitees include: Nelson Cruz, Craig Dingman, Sean Douglass, John Ennis, Andrew Good, Matt Roney, Mike Bynum, Doug Creek, Brandon Harper, Sandy Martinez, and Kevin Hooper.

The most conspicuous absensce maybe that of Kyle Sleeth, the top pick in 2003.

News, views, and analysis on the Detroit Tigers and baseball