Seth Stohs of Seth Speaks fame was really having a hard time thinking of something to write about, so he interviewed me. I’ve considered doing a little “about the author” thing so you could get to know me better. Seth was kind enough to take care of that for me, and in probably a much more structured way than I would have. So if you want to know more about me go read Seth’s post, and really Seth does a great job all the time so you should consider reading him regularly.

Derek Lowe
I’ve done enough railing against Derek Lowe. However, Rob Neyer wrote a pretty interesting piece about the Derek Lowe signing, and why Paul DePodesta may have done it. It’s an Insider article, so I’ll just give you the jist. Neyer points out that Lowe’s peripherals didn’t really change much from 2003 to 2004 so you would expect his performance to be similar both years. However, his BABIP jumped up tremendously in 2004 which in large part could be attributed to luck, (or bad luck). So 2004 probably isn’t indicative of his true talent level, and it’s probably closer to his performance in 2003 when he was a pretty good pitcher.

The other part of the article is why Lowe is a good fit for the Dogers, and Dodger stadium. Dodger stadium is widely considered a pitchers park. The reason for this is that it seems to eliminate doubles and triples. However, it is a pretty easy place to hit a home run. Derek Lowe’s strength, aside from being an extreme ground ball pitcher, is limiting home runs. Voila, a perfect fit.

Comerica park seems to have the opposite effect. It suppresses home runs, but is a great doubles and triples park so Lowe probably wouldn’t be as valuable to the Tigers as he is to the Dodgers. In any case, it is a great look at the power of park effects.

I’m lazy today, so I’ll just send you guys to some interesting stuff I’ve seen lately:

–Baseball America Scouts vs. Stats: Allan Schwarz leads a roundtable discussion with Voros McCracken (Mr. DiPS and Red Sox consultant), Gary Huckabay (BP writer and A’s consultant), Gary Hughes (Cubs Assistant GM), and Eddie Bane (Angels Scouting Director) about evaluation techniques.

–Brian and the Nationals. Brian makes his second apperance at the Hardball Times detailing how an Expo becomes a National. Also, check out his comparison of Ryne Sandberg and Lou Whitaker at Tigerblog. Whitaker was always my favorite player, so I of course think he should be a HoF’er. However, knowing my bias I try to be reserved about Whitaker so it’s nice to see other people sharing my feelings.

–The Oakland Press doesn’t have the readership of the News and the Freep, but for Tigers coverage maybe it should. Crystal Evola has had a pretty good week covering the Tigs. On Wednesday, Crystal had the quotes of Dombrowski saying that the Tigers weren’t pursuing Beltran. The Free Press, News, and sports talk radio didn’t pick it up until yesterday. Then today, she was the only source to include Dombrowski’s comments on Anderson Hernandez.

-Another Hardball Times article from last week took a look at one out guys. While Trammell received lots of criticism for bullpen utilization, his use of pitchers to come in and face only guy was pretty successful. The Tigers brought in pitchers 33 times last year to face only one batter. Those 33 batters faced resulted in 32 outs. If you wanted to know who was best at this, check out Steve Colyer who was called on 11 times to face one batter, and came away with 11 outs.

The Tigers made a trade today to acquire a backup catcher. They traded minor league shortstop Anderson Hernandez for Mets backup catcher Vance Wilson. Wilson is a solid player who hit 274/335/427 last year in 79 games. Wilson is also a solid defender.

Hernandez will be 22 and played shortstop for Erie last season. Throughout his minor league career, he has hit for a decent average but with very little power. Baseball America ranked Hernandez as the Tigers best infield defender and their best infield arm.

This pretty much signals that Inge won’t be catching for the Tigers again. Either the plan is for him to be the starting third baseman for awhile, or they plan to trade him. Also, it may speak highly of Tony Giarrtano’s progress. Giarrtano will most likely take Hernandez’s place at Erie next season.

The Tigers filled a need at an affordable price.

With this move, the position players on the big league roster have been identified. If the Tigers carry 12 pitchers, the position players will be:

Ivan Rodriguez
Vance Wilson

Carlos Pena
Omar Infante
Carlos Guillen
Brandon Inge
Ramon Martinez
Jason Smith

Rondell White
Alex Sanchez
Bobby Higginson
Craig Monroe
Dmitri Young

Barring injuries or trades, I don’t really see this changing. I would say that Sanchez’s spot on the roster is the most tenuous. If Granderson performs very well in spring training there is a chance he may beat out Sanchez. This also doesn’t bode well for Nook Logan to stay with the big club (at least initially).

The Tigers today signed some bench depth in Ramon Martinez. Martinez agreed to a one year deal worth $1.025 million. Jason Beck quoted Dave Dombrowski as saying:

This is a solid signing from a utility/platoon standpoint as Dombrowski mentioned. Martinez is an average fielder at second base, a below average fielder at third, and he’s above average at shortstop according to Baseball Prospectus Fielding Runs. He’ll be 32 next season and his career offensive numbers are a respectable 268/330/387.

In 2005 the Tigers won’t have a Rule 5 pick occupying a roster spot, so they can afford to carry an extra utility infielder. Also, Jason Beck reports today that Fernando Vina won’t be ready for spring training. It sounds like if Vina is still a member of the team, he’ll more than likely be on the 60 day DL which means he won’t be counted against the 40 man roster.

The Fame Game
Congratulations go out to Wade Boggs and Ryne Sandberg on their Hall of Fame induction. Meanwhile, Jack Morris and Alan Trammell received little support. Trammell appeared on 13% of the ballots which doesn’t bode well for his future chances. He needs some success managing the Tigers to draw attention to his exceptional career.

At least Trammell is still on the ballot. Whitaker was eliminated his first year on the ballot despite having comparable numbers to Ryne Sandberg.

Finally there is Jack Morris, who also has a solid case. I don’t think it’s as clear cut as Trammell’s, yet Morris was on 33% of the ballots. Unlike Trammell, who is the most deserving eligible shortstop not in the Hall, Morris isn’t the best eligible starter waiting in the wings. That would have to be Bert Blyleven. Until Blyleven gets in (if he gets in) I’ll have a hard time arguing vehemently for Morris.

It looks like the Tigers best chances to land a big free agent bat are:

1. Offer Beltran the 10 year, $200 million that Boras is asking for

or

2. Take a shot at an injured Magglio Ordonez

As much as I’d like to get Beltran, the Tigers won’t be handing out any 10 year deals. As a result, Ordonez is a much more realistic option. The only reason Ordonez doesn’t have a 5 year $60 million dollar contract in hand already is due to concerns about his knees. Last year Ordonez had to undergo knee surgery. Unfortunately a complication called bone marrow edema required a second surgery. His health so far is unknown because agent Scott Boras cancelled a scheduled workout during the winter meetings, which isn’t a good sign.

If the Tigers can work out a creative contract, Ordonez is a risk worth taking. Ordonez’s career numbers are 307/364/525 and he has remained healthy thoughout his career until last year. From 1998-2003 he played in more than 145 games each year. As an outfielder, he is an average fielder.

Ordonez will be 31 next year so some dropoff over the next few years is possible, but he’d still be an upgrade if healthy. Another concern with Ordonez’s production is that he has played in hitter friendly US Cellular field. While he does hit better at home with an OPS of 978, he is still a pretty good hitter on the road with an 895 OPS over the last 3 years.

Because Ordonez was never really known as a speed player, even if he’s slower than before, it isn’t taking away a significant portion of his game. As long as the bat and batting eye are still there, Ordonez will be a valuable player.

The drawbacks are that corner outfield isn’t a pressing need for the Tigers. While a healthy Ordonez would be a clear upgrade over White/Higginson/Monroe the Tigers can get by with what they’ve got. Plus the fact that Higginson’s contract can’t be moved would mean the Tigers would be paying a ton for the right field position. It won’t solve the problems in centerfield, third base, ,or back up catcher.

All that being said, Ordonez is the Tigers best shot at improving their lineup. Other teams are staying away, and if the Tigers are the only bidder willing to offer multiple years that will give them some leverage. The trick is managing the health risk.

Ordonez’s knees can’t be insured. What the Tigers need to do is structure a deal similar to Pudge’s. There was no way that the Tigers would be able to fully insure Rodriguez’s 4 year contract. John Westhoff got creative and had an out for the Tigers if Rodriguez’s back problem flared up. Now I don’t know for sure, but it probably became possible for the Tigers to then insure the rest of Rodriguez. If the Tigers could negotiate a similar out for Magglio’s knees, that reduces the risk and may make the contract insurable. Another tactic could be to offer a one year contract where a second year vests based on games played.

With some creativity to mitigate the risk, Ordonez is worth taking a shot at.

Non baseball stuff
I received season 4 of the Simpsons for Christmas and I’m just amazed at how many of my favorite episodes are in 4. The Monorail, Mr. Plow, Homer skipping church, Whacking Day, the one where Homer gets busted for DOA (or DUI, I always get those mixed up). That’s about as good as it gets.

As I often do when I’m trying to avoid doing real work, I’ll head over to Baseball Reference and start poking around on stat pages. I took a look at Carlos Guillen’s because of his remarkable season last year. One of the great features of BR, is the list of comparison players. I wanted to see who Guillen was similar to at this stage of his career. The list was far from encouraging with the likes of Julio Lugo, Adam Kennedy, Dickie Thon, and Neifi Perez among others.

One name that did catch my attention is Rich Aurilia. As Tiger fans remember, Detroit pursued Aurilia only to see him sign with Seattle. Of course, Guillen became expendable from Seattle’s viewpoint and the Tigers were the beneficiary.

The other thing that most remember about Aurilia is his tremendous season in 2001 in which he hit 37 homers, had an OPS+ of 148, and made the All Star team. Aurilia’s season came out of nowhere, and he hasn’t come close to approaching those numbers again. Considering that Carlos Guillen had a 2004 season that far surpassed what he had totaled to that point in his career, I thought it would be worthwhile to take a look at how the two compared.

Before Peak							
	Age	Games	BA	OBP	SLG	RC	RC/27
Guillen	22-27	488	.264	.331	.383	211	4.33
Aurilia	23-28	575	.270	.324	.419	260	4.74
							
							
Peak							
	Age	Games	BA	OBP	SLG	RC	RC/27
Guillen	28	136	.318	.379	.542	107	7.62
Aurilia	29	156	.324	.369	.572	134	8.00
							
							
Post Peak							
	Age	Games	BA	OBP	SLG	RC	RC/27
Guillen	29-??	???	???	???	???	???	???
Aurilia	30-32	386	.261	.313	.395	178	4.22

Aurilia broke in with the Giants at age 23. Guillen beat him by a year and came up at 22. Over the first 6 years of their careers, they hit for a similar batting average. Guillen was slightly better at getting on base, but Aurilia hit for more power reaching 20 homers in both 1999 and 2000.

Then came the big breakout seasons. Aurilia’s occured at age 29. His RC/27 (runs created per 27 outs, basically the number of runs a team of 9 Aurilia’s would score in a game). jumped 69% from his pre-peak seasons. His OPS jumped 27% from his career to date numbers.

Guillen’s big season (so far, hopefully there will be more) came at age 28. Like Aurilia, Guillen’s numbers for batting average, on base average, and slugging percentage all jumped tremendously. His RC/27 increased 76%, and his OPS jumped 29%.

Here’s the downer. While we don’t know what the future holds for Carlos Guillen we can look at what happened to Rich Aurilia after his big season. In the three seasons since his 2001 peak season, his numbers are actually worse than they were prior to the peak. Despite signing a brand new contract with Seattle last year, his performance was so bad, they released him midseason.

Rich Aurilia’s collapse after an All Star season doesn’t mean that the same thing will occur with Guillen. Guillen is a year younger than Aurilia was during their respective big seasons which could be a good sign. Also Guillen’s big season came after a change of scenery where Aurilia’s came in the middle of his tenure with the Giants. Guillen’s role in Seattle was never clearly defined, and when he came to Detroit he knew he’d be the starting shortstop. Also Guillen’s success wasn’t predicated on a cushy lineup spot (Aurilia was in the same lineup with Bonds and Kent who both slugged over .500). The Tigers offense was pretty good last year, but Guillen hit in all of the first 7 spots in the order.

In looking forward to next season, my guess is that Guillen won’t repeat his 2004 performance, but I also don’t see him falling off completely like Aurilia did. I’m thinking that Guillen’s power numbers will be sustained or only slip slightly because the increase in slugging came not only from home runs, but from an increase in extra base hits across the board. His average, may dip some which would drag down his on base average as well. Then again, what do I know. I thought Eric Munson was going to put it all together last year.

I don’t have a whole lot to say on a case by case basis with the recent transactions (and non-transactions). Those being the Inge and Sanchez contracts, the Munson non-tender, and Drew going to LA. Well, actually I have quite a bit to say. Unfortunately I don’t have the time or energy to address it prior to Christmas. So I just want to wish everybody a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.

Today is the deadline for teams to tender contracts to players with less than six years of of service. Players that are arbitration eligible, who aren’t tendered contracts are then able to sign with other teams. To be arbitration eligble a player needs between 3 and six years of big league service time, or be in the top sixth of players with 2+ years of service (super 2’s). For the Tigers, those players are Alex Sanchez, Brandon Inge, and Carlos Pena.

John Lowe reports today that the Tigers are expected to tender a contract to Alex Sanchez. However, the chances of Sanchez playing for the Tigers remain small. By offering a contract, it allows the Tigers more time to try and trade Sanchez. It also provides an insurance policy in caae the Tigers can’t find another centerfielder via free agency or trade, and it keeps them from having to rush Curtis Granderson. Fortunately, the contract doesn’t become guaranteed until the start of the season. So the Tigers can cut him during spring training, and only owe him a portion of his salary (30 days of salary if prior to 16 days before start of season, and 45 days of salary if less than 16 days prior to season).

It is expected that Brandon Inge, who right now is slated to be the starting third baseman, and Carlos Pena will be tendered contracts.

Given the Tigers struggles in acquiring free agents, I’m sure they’ll be scanning this new crop of available players to try and find some bargains.

Derek Lowe
Yesterday was the deadline for free agents who had been offered arbitration by their former team to accept arbitration. Derek Lowe was offered arbitration by the Red Sox, and he declined it. Thus ending his career in Boston. This also takes another potential team out of the Derek Lowe sweepstakes which is bad news for the Tigers.

The last thing I’ll write about Beltre
On Friday I lamented the fact that it seemed like the Tigers didn’t pursue Beltre hard enough (if at all). Well it’s a good thing I stuck that paragraph in at the end conceding the fact that I didn’t have access to all the information. Two reports this weekend state that Beltre wasn’t going to leave the west coast.

Gammons reported that the World Series champion Red Sox couldn’t get him either, at least not at less than $14 million per year

Just think what the Tigers would have had to offer. John Lowe has sources that say the Tigers would have been willing to go even higher:

So at least it makes me feel better that the Tigers were in, and in competitively. It doesn’t sound like we had a shot at Beltre, at least not a price that would have still made the signing a positive. It’s one thing to overpay a guy an extra million or two on a two year deal, it’s a whole different thing to be on the hook for an extra $15 million over 5 years. And it seems that even winning teams in warm climates don’t always get their guy either. In Gammons same piece he notes that Koskie took less money to sign with Toronto than what he was offered in LA: